472 research outputs found

    Predicting the distributions of under-recorded Odonata using species distribution models

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    1. Absences in distributional data may result either from the true absence of a species or from a false absence due to lack of recording effort. I use general linear models (GLMs) and species distribution models (SDMs) to investigate this problem in North American Odonata and present a potential solution. 2. I use multi-model selection methods based on Akaike's information criterion to evaluate the ability of water-energy variables, human population density, and recording effort to explain patterns of odonate diversity in the USA and Canada using GLMs. Water-energy variables explain a large proportion of the variance in odonate diversity, but the residuals of these models are significantly related to recorder effort. 3. I then create SDMs for 176species that are found solely in the USA and Canada using model averaging of eight different methods. These give predictions of hypothetical true distributions of each of the 176species based on climate variables, which I compare with observed distributions to identify areas where potential under-recording may occur. 4. Under-recording appears to be highest in northern Canada, Alaska, and Quebec, as well as the interior of the USA. The proportion of predicted species that have been observed is related to recorder effort and population density. Maps for individual species have been made available online () to facilitate recording in the future. 5. This analysis has illustrated a problem with current odonate recording in the form of unbalanced recorder effort. However, the SDM approach also provides the solution, targeting recorder effort in such a way as to maximise returns from limited resources

    Semiparametric theory and empirical processes in causal inference

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    In this paper we review important aspects of semiparametric theory and empirical processes that arise in causal inference problems. We begin with a brief introduction to the general problem of causal inference, and go on to discuss estimation and inference for causal effects under semiparametric models, which allow parts of the data-generating process to be unrestricted if they are not of particular interest (i.e., nuisance functions). These models are very useful in causal problems because the outcome process is often complex and difficult to model, and there may only be information available about the treatment process (at best). Semiparametric theory gives a framework for benchmarking efficiency and constructing estimators in such settings. In the second part of the paper we discuss empirical process theory, which provides powerful tools for understanding the asymptotic behavior of semiparametric estimators that depend on flexible nonparametric estimators of nuisance functions. These tools are crucial for incorporating machine learning and other modern methods into causal inference analyses. We conclude by examining related extensions and future directions for work in semiparametric causal inference

    Rejection criteria for open-path Fourier transform infrared spectrometry during continuous atmospheric monitoring

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    Over 32,000 interferograms measured during open-path Fourier transform infrared (OP/FT-IR) measurements at dairy and hog farms were evaluated for anomalies. Five types of anomalies could be distinguished: a reduction in the interferogram intensity because of weather-related optical misalignment; an increase in the amplitude of interferograms measured with too short a path-length that leads to a non-linear detector response; a periodic interference caused by wind-induced vibrations; the presence of spikes in the interferogram; and an increase in the noise level of the interferogram (and hence of the spectrum) because of the effect of electrical interference. Prior to testing for the presence of anomalous data, each interferogram is subjected to a high-pass filter. A noise level index is then calculated from the wings of the interferogram and interferograms are rejected if the value of this parameter is too high. When the criteria developed in this project are applied, OP/FT-1R spectra may be measured at 1-min intervals over a period of several days

    STATIC FOUR-DIMENSIONAL ABELIAN BLACK HOLES IN KALUZA-KLEIN THEORY

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    Static, four-dimensional (4-d) black holes (BH's) in (4+n4+n)-d Kaluza-Klein (KK) theory with Abelian isometry and diagonal internal metric have at most one electric (QQ) and one magnetic (PP) charges, which can either come from the same U(1)U(1)-gauge field (corresponding to BH's in effective 5-d KK theory) or from different ones (corresponding to BH's with U(1)M×U(1)EU(1)_M\times U(1)_E isometry of an effective 6-d KK theory). In the latter case, explicit non-extreme solutions have the global space-time of Schwarzschild BH's, finite temperature, and non-zero entropy. In the extreme (supersymmetric) limit the singularity becomes null, the temperature saturates the upper bound TH=1/4πQPT_H=1/4\pi\sqrt{|QP|}, and entropy is zero. A class of KK BH's with constrained charge configurations, exhibiting a continuous electric-magnetic duality, are generated by global SO(n)SO(n) transformations on the above classes of the solutions.Comment: 11 pages, 2 Postscript figures. uses RevTeX and psfig.sty (for figs) paper and figs also at ftp://dept.physics.upenn.edu/pub/Cvetic/UPR-645-

    All the Four Dimensional Static, Spherically Symmetric Solutions of Abelian Kaluza-Klein Theory

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    We present the explicit form for all the four dimensional, static, spherically symmetric solutions in (4+n)(4+n)-d Abelian Kaluza-Klein theory by performing a subset of SO(2,n)SO(2,n) transformations corresponding to four SO(1,1)SO(1,1) boosts on the Schwarzschild solution, supplemented by SO(n)/SO(n2)SO(n)/SO(n-2) transformations. The solutions are parameterized by the mass MM, Taub-Nut charge aa, nn electric Q\vec{\cal Q} and nn magnetic P\vec{\cal P} charges. Non-extreme black holes (with zero Taub-NUT charge) have either the Reissner-Nordstr\" om or Schwarzschild global space-time. Supersymmetric extreme black holes have a null or naked singularity, while non-supersymmetric extreme ones have a global space-time of extreme Reissner-Nordstr\" om black holes.Comment: 8 pages, uses RevTex, improved version to appear in Phys. Rev. Let

    Measurement of atmospheric ammonia, methane, and nitrous oxide at a concentrated dairy production facility in Southern Idaho using open-path FTIR spectrometry

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    The number of dairy cows in Idaho has increased by approximately 80% in the last decade, with the majority of these facilities located in southern Idaho, causing air quality concerns in this region. To determine the potential air quality impacts of these facilities, we measured ammonia (NH3), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) concentrations over the pens, wastewater storage pond, and composting area on a 700?cow open?lot dairy using open?path Fourier transform infrared spectrometry (OP/FTIR). Concentrations were measured for one or two days at each location during January, March, June, and September. Median NH3 concentrations over the pens, storage pond, and composting area ranged from 0.14 to 0.39 ppmv, 0.04 to 0.17 ppmv, and 0.06 to 0.22 ppmv, respectively, with concentrations tending to be lower in January. Average CH4 concentrations over the pens, storage pond, and composting area ranged from 2.07 to 2.80 ppmv, 1.87 to 2.15 ppmv, and 1.71 to 1.76 ppmv, respectively. Average N2O concentrations ranged from 0.31 to 0.33 ppmv for all areas, which was similar to global background N2O concentrations. Combined ammonia emissions for the pen and storage pond areas, calculated with a backward Lagrangian stochastic inverse?dispersion technique, were 0.04, 0.25, 0.19, and 0.15 kg NH3 cow-1 d-1 for January, March, June, and September, respectively, and methane emissions were 0.34, 0.55, 0.21, and 0.20 kg CH4 cow-1 d-1 for the same months. Assuming this limited monitoring was representative of the entire year, annual emissions from the pens and storage pond were 57 kg NH3 cow-1 and 120 kg CH4 cow-1. These emission rates were similar to the limited number of comparable studies that have been published. However, more extensive monitoring is needed to better quantify variations in emissions throughout the year and among locations

    Craig Rhos-y-felin: A Welsh bluestone megalith quarry for Stonehenge

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    The long-distance transport of the bluestones from south Wales to Stonehenge is one of the most remarkable achievements of Neolithic societies in north-west Europe. Where precisely these stones were quarried, when they were extracted and how they were transported has long been a subject of speculation, experiment and controversy. The discovery of a megalithic bluestone quarry at Craig Rhos-y-felin in 2011 marked a turning point in this research. Subsequent excavations have provided details of the quarrying process along with direct dating evidence for the extraction of bluestone monoliths at this location, demonstrating both Neolithic and Early Bronze Age activity

    Toward a predictive understanding of earth’s microbiomes to address 21st century challenges

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    Microorganisms have shaped our planet and its inhabitants for over 3.5 billion years. Humankind has had a profound influence on the biosphere, manifested as global climate and land use changes, and extensive urbanization in response to a growing population. The challenges we face to supply food, energy, and clean water while maintaining and improving the health of our population and ecosystems are significant. Given the extensive influence of microorganisms across our biosphere, we propose that a coordinated, cross-disciplinary effort is required to understand, predict, and harness microbiome function. From the parallelization of gene function testing to precision manipulation of genes, communities, and model ecosystems and development of novel analytical and simulation approaches, we outline strategies to move microbiome research into an era of causality. These efforts will improve prediction of ecosystem response and enable the development of new, responsible, microbiome-based solutions to significant challenges of our time
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