Predictability of the quasi-biennial oscillation and its northern winter teleconnection on seasonal to decadal timescales

Journal ArticlePublished version used with permision of the publisher.The predictability of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is examined in initialized climate forecasts extending out to lead times of years. We use initialized retrospective predictions made with coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models that have an internally generated QBO. We demonstrate predictability of the QBO extending more than 3 years into the future, well beyond timescales normally associated with internal atmospheric processes. Correlation scores with observational analyses exceed 0.7 at a lead time of 12 months. We also examine the variation of predictability with season and QBO phase and find that skill is lowest in winter. An assessment of perfect predictability suggests that higher skill may be achievable through improved initialization and climate modeling of the QBO, although this may depend on the realism of gravity wave source parameterizations in the models. Finally, we show that skilful prediction of the QBO itself does not guarantee predictability of the extratropical winter teleconnection that is important for surface winter climate prediction. Key Points The QBO is skilfully predicted in seasonal-decadal forecast systems Further improvements in predictions of the QBO are possible The QBO winter surface teleconnection is reproduced with mixed succes

High temporal resolution parametric MRI monitoring of the initial ischemia/reperfusion phase in experimental acute kidney injury

Ischemia/reperfusion (I/R) injury, a consequence of kidney hypoperfusion or temporary interruption of blood flow is a common cause of acute kidney injury (AKI). There is an unmet need to better understand the mechanisms operative during the initial phase of ischemic AKI. Non-invasive parametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) may elucidate spatio-temporal pathophysiological changes in the kidney by monitoring the MR relaxation parameters T* and T, which are known to be sensitive to blood oxygenation. The aim of our study was to establish the technical feasibility of fast continuous T*/T mapping throughout renal I/R. MRI was combined with a remotely controlled I/R model and a segmentation model based semi-automated quantitative analysis. This technique enabled the detailed assessment of changes in all kidney regions during ischemia and early reperfusion. Significant changes in T* and T were observed shortly after induction of renal ischemia and during the initial reperfusion phase. Our study demonstrated for the first time that continuous and high temporal resolution parametric MRI is feasible for monitoring and characterization of I/R induced AKI in rats. This technique may help in the identification of the timeline of key events responsible for development of renal damage in hypoperfusion-induced AKI

A higher-resolution version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2-HR)

The MPI‐ESM1.2 is the latest version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model and is the baseline for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and current seasonal and decadal climate predictions. This paper evaluates a coupled higher‐resolution version (MPI‐ESM1.2‐HR) in comparison with its lower‐resolved version (MPI‐ESM1.2‐LR). We focus on basic oceanic and atmospheric mean states and selected modes of variability, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. The increase in atmospheric resolution in MPI‐ESM1.2‐HR reduces the biases of upper‐level zonal wind and atmospheric jet stream position in the northern extratropics. This results in a decrease of the storm track bias over the northern North Atlantic, for both winter and summer season. The blocking frequency over the European region is improved in summer, and North Atlantic Oscillation and related storm track variations improve in winter. Stable Atlantic meridional overturning circulations are found with magnitudes of ~16 Sv for MPI‐ESM1.2‐HR and ~20 Sv for MPI‐ESM1.2‐LR at 26°N. A strong sea surface temperature bias of ~5°C along with a too zonal North Atlantic current is present in both versions. The sea surface temperature bias in the eastern tropical Atlantic is reduced by ~1°C due to higher‐resolved orography in MPI‐ESM‐HR, and the region of the cold‐tongue bias is reduced in the tropical Pacific. MPI‐ESM1.2‐HR has a well‐balanced radiation budget and its climate sensitivity is explicitly tuned to 3 K. Although the obtained reductions in long‐standing biases are modest, the improvements in atmospheric dynamics make this model well suited for prediction and impact studies

Comparison between non‐orographic gravity‐wave parameterizations used in QBOi models and Strateole 2 constant‐level balloons

Gravity‐wave (GW) parameterizations from 12 general circulation models (GCMs) participating in the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi) are compared with Strateole 2 balloon observations made in the tropical lower stratosphere from November 2019–February 2020 (phase 1) and from October 2021–January 2022 (phase 2). The parameterizations employ the three standard techniques used in GCMs to represent subgrid‐scale non‐orographic GWs, namely the two globally spectral techniques developed by Warner and McIntyre (1999) and Hines (1997), as well as the “multiwaves” approaches following the work of Lindzen (1981). The input meteorological fields necessary to run the parameterizations offline are extracted from the ERA5 reanalysis and correspond to the meteorological conditions found underneath the balloons. In general, there is fair agreement between amplitudes derived from measurements for waves with periods less than 1 $$1$$ h and parameterizations. The correlation between the daily observations and the corresponding results of the parameterization can be around 0.4, which is 99 % $$99\%$$ significant, since 1200 days of observations are used. Given that the parameterizations have only been tuned to produce a quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) in the models, the 0.4 correlation coefficient of the GW momentum fluxes is surprisingly good. These correlations nevertheless vary between schemes and depend little on their formulation (globally spectral versus multiwaves for instance). We therefore attribute these correlations to dynamical filtering, which all schemes take into account, whereas only a few relate the gravity waves to their sources. Statistically significant correlations are mostly found for eastward‐propagating waves, which may be due to the fact that during both Strateole 2 phases the QBO is easterly at the altitude of the balloon flights. We also found that the probability density functions (pdfs) of the momentum fluxes are represented better in spectral schemes with constant sources than in schemes (“spectral” or “multiwaves”) that relate GWs only to their convective sources

Decadal predictions with the HiGEM high resolution global coupled climate model: description and basic evaluation

This paper describes the development and basic evaluation of decadal predictions produced using the HiGEM coupled climate model. HiGEM is a higher resolution version of the HadGEM1 Met Office Unified Model. The horizontal resolution in HiGEM has been increased to 1.25◦ × 0.83◦ in longitude and latitude for the atmosphere, and 1/3◦ × 1/3◦ globally for the ocean. The HiGEM decadal predictions are initialised using an anomaly assimilation scheme that relaxes anomalies of ocean temperature and salinity to observed anomalies. 10 year hindcasts are produced for 10 start dates (1960, 1965,..., 2000, 2005). To determine the relative contributions to prediction skill from initial conditions and external forcing, the HiGEM decadal predictions are compared to uninitialised HiGEM transient experiments. The HiGEM decadal predictions have substantial skill for predictions of annual mean surface air temperature and 100 m upper ocean temperature. For lead times up to 10 years, anomaly correlations (ACC) over large areas of the North Atlantic Ocean, the Western Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean exceed values of 0.6. Initialisation of the HiGEM decadal predictions significantly increases skill over regions of the Atlantic Ocean,the Maritime Continent and regions of the subtropical North and South Pacific Ocean. In particular, HiGEM produces skillful predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre for up to 4 years lead time (with ACC > 0.7), which are significantly larger than the uninitialised HiGEM transient experiments

Genome sequence of the bioplastic-producing ‘‘Knallgas’’ bacterium Ralstonia eutropha H16

The H2-oxidizing lithoautotrophic bacterium Ralstonia eutropha H16 is a metabolically versatile organism capable of subsisting, in the absence of organic growth substrates, on H2 and CO2 as its sole sources of energy and carbon. R. eutropha H16 first attracted biotechnological interest nearly 50 years ago with the realization that the organism’s ability to produce and store large amounts of poly[R-(–)-3-hydroxybutyrate] and other polyesters could be harnessed to make biodegradable plastics. Here we report the complete genome sequence of the two chromosomes of R. eutropha H16. Together, chromosome 1 (4,052,032 base pairs (bp)) and chromosome 2 (2,912,490 bp) encode 6,116 putative genes. Analysis of the genome sequence offers the genetic basis for exploiting the biotechnological potential of this organism and provides insights into its remarkable metabolic versatility

Active Brownian Particles. From Individual to Collective Stochastic Dynamics

We review theoretical models of individual motility as well as collective dynamics and pattern formation of active particles. We focus on simple models of active dynamics with a particular emphasis on nonlinear and stochastic dynamics of such self-propelled entities in the framework of statistical mechanics. Examples of such active units in complex physico-chemical and biological systems are chemically powered nano-rods, localized patterns in reaction-diffusion system, motile cells or macroscopic animals. Based on the description of individual motion of point-like active particles by stochastic differential equations, we discuss different velocity-dependent friction functions, the impact of various types of fluctuations and calculate characteristic observables such as stationary velocity distributions or diffusion coefficients. Finally, we consider not only the free and confined individual active dynamics but also different types of interaction between active particles. The resulting collective dynamical behavior of large assemblies and aggregates of active units is discussed and an overview over some recent results on spatiotemporal pattern formation in such systems is given.Comment: 161 pages, Review, Eur Phys J Special-Topics, accepte

13C-assisted metabolic flux analysis to investigate heterotrophic and mixotrophic metabolism in Cupriavidus necator H16

Introduction. Cupriavidus necator H16 is a gram-negative bacterium, capable of lithoautotrophic growth by utilizing hydrogen as an energy source and fixing carbon dioxide (CO2) through Calvin-Benson-Bassham (CBB) cycle. The potential to utilize synthesis gas (Syngas) and the prospects of rerouting carbon from polyhydroxybutyrate synthesis to value-added compounds makes C. necator an excellent chassis for industrial application. Objectives. In the context of lack of sufficient quantitative information of the metabolic pathways and to advance in rational metabolic engineering for optimized product synthesis in C. necator H16, we carried out a metabolic flux analysis based on steady-state 13C-labelling. Methods. In this study, steady-state carbon labelling experiments, using either D-[1-13C]fructose or [1,2-13C]glycerol, were undertaken to investigate the carbon flux through the central carbon metabolism in C. necator H16 under heterotrophic and mixotrophic growth conditions, respectively. Results. We found that the CBB cycle is active even under heterotrophic condition, and growth is indeed mixotrophic. While Entner-Doudoroff (ED) pathway is shown to be the major route for sugar degradation, tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle is highly active in mixotrophic condition. Enhanced flux is observed in reductive pentose phosphate pathway (redPPP) under the mixotrophic condition to supplement the precursor requirement for CBB cycle. The flux distribution was compared to the mRNA abundance of genes encoding enzymes involved in key enzymatic reactions of the central carbon metabolism. Conclusion. This study leads the way to establishing 13C-based quantitative fluxomics for rational pathway engineering in C. necator H16

Recent progress in understanding and predicting Atlantic decadal climate variability

Recent Atlantic climate prediction studies are an exciting new contribution to an extensive body of research on Atlantic decadal variability and predictability that has long emphasized the unique role of the Atlantic Ocean in modulating the surface climate. We present a survey of the foundations and frontiers in our understanding of Atlantic variability mechanisms, the role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and our present capacity for putting that understanding into practice in actual climate prediction systems