Extending Bayesian back-calculation to estimate age and time specific HIV incidence.

CD4-based multi-state back-calculation methods are key for monitoring the HIV epidemic, providing estimates of HIV incidence and diagnosis rates by disentangling their inter-related contribution to the observed surveillance data. This paper, extends existing approaches to age-specific settings, permitting the joint estimation of age- and time-specific incidence and diagnosis rates and the derivation of other epidemiological quantities of interest. This allows the identification of specific age-groups at higher risk of infection, which is crucial in directing public health interventions. We investigate, through simulation studies, the suitability of various bivariate splines for the non-parametric modelling of the latent age- and time-specific incidence and illustrate our method on routinely collected data from the HIV epidemic among gay and bisexual men in England and Wales

Variations in Helicobacter pylori Cytotoxin-Associated Genes and Their Influence in Progression to Gastric Cancer: Implications for Prevention

Helicobacter pylori (HP) is a bacterium that colonizes the human stomach and can establish a long-term infection of the gastric mucosa. Persistent Hp infection often induces gastritis and is associated with the development of peptic ulcer disease, atrophic gastritis, and gastric adenocarcinoma. Virulent HP isolates harbor the cag (cytotoxin-associated genes) pathogenicity island (cagPAI), a 40 kb stretch of DNA that encodes components of a type IV secretion system (T4SS). This T4SS forms a pilus for the injection of virulence factors into host target cells, such as the CagA oncoprotein. We analyzed the genetic variability in cagA and other selected genes of the HP cagPAI (cagC, cagE, cagL, cagT, cagV and cag Gamma) using DNA extracted from frozen gastric biopsies or from clinical isolates. Study subjects were 95 cagA+ patients that were histologically diagnosed with chronic gastritis or gastric cancer in Venezuela and Mexico, areas with high prevalence of Hp infection. Sequencing reactions were carried out by both Sanger and next-generation pyrosequencing (454 Roche) methods. We found a total of 381 variants with unambiguous calls observed in at least 10% of the originally tested samples and reference strains. We compared the frequencies of these genetic variants between gastric cancer and chronic gastritis cases. Twenty-six SNPs (11 non-synonymous and 14 synonymous) showed statistically significant differences (P<0.05), and two SNPs, in position 1039 and 1041 of cagE, showed a highly significant association with cancer (p-value = 2.07×10−6), and the variant codon was located in the VirB3 homology domain of Agrobacterium. The results of this study may provide preliminary information to target antibiotic treatment to high-risk individuals, if effects of these variants are confirmed in further investigations

Revisiting the Mystery of Recent Stratospheric Temperature Trends

Simulated stratospheric temperatures over the period 1979–2016 in models from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative are compared with recently updated and extended satellite data sets. The multimodel mean global temperature trends over 1979–2005 are -0.88 ± 0.23, -0.70 ± 0.16, and -0.50 ± 0.12 K/decade for the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU) channels 3 (~40–50 km), 2 (~35–45 km), and 1 (~25–35 km), respectively (with 95% confidence intervals). These are within the uncertainty bounds of the observed temperature trends from two reprocessed SSU data sets. In the lower stratosphere, the multimodel mean trend in global temperature for the Microwave Sounding Unit channel 4 (~13–22 km) is -0.25 ± 0.12 K/decade over 1979–2005, consistent with observed estimates from three versions of this satellite record. The models and an extended satellite data set comprised of SSU with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A show weaker global stratospheric cooling over 1998–2016 compared to the period of intensive ozone depletion (1979–1997). This is due to the reduction in ozone-induced cooling from the slowdown of ozone trends and the onset of ozone recovery since the late 1990s. In summary, the results show much better consistency between simulated and satellite-observed stratospheric temperature trends than was reported by Thompson et al. (2012, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11579) for the previous versions of the SSU record and chemistry-climate models. The improved agreement mainly comes from updates to the satellite records; the range of stratospheric temperature trends over 1979–2005 simulated in Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative models is comparable to the previous generation of chemistry-climate models

Effect of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor and angiotensin receptor blocker initiation on organ support-free days in patients hospitalized with COVID-19

IMPORTANCE Overactivation of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) may contribute to poor clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19. Objective To determine whether angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) initiation improves outcomes in patients hospitalized for COVID-19. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS In an ongoing, adaptive platform randomized clinical trial, 721 critically ill and 58 non–critically ill hospitalized adults were randomized to receive an RAS inhibitor or control between March 16, 2021, and February 25, 2022, at 69 sites in 7 countries (final follow-up on June 1, 2022). INTERVENTIONS Patients were randomized to receive open-label initiation of an ACE inhibitor (n = 257), ARB (n = 248), ARB in combination with DMX-200 (a chemokine receptor-2 inhibitor; n = 10), or no RAS inhibitor (control; n = 264) for up to 10 days. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was organ support–free days, a composite of hospital survival and days alive without cardiovascular or respiratory organ support through 21 days. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model. Odds ratios (ORs) greater than 1 represent improved outcomes. RESULTS On February 25, 2022, enrollment was discontinued due to safety concerns. Among 679 critically ill patients with available primary outcome data, the median age was 56 years and 239 participants (35.2%) were women. Median (IQR) organ support–free days among critically ill patients was 10 (–1 to 16) in the ACE inhibitor group (n = 231), 8 (–1 to 17) in the ARB group (n = 217), and 12 (0 to 17) in the control group (n = 231) (median adjusted odds ratios of 0.77 [95% bayesian credible interval, 0.58-1.06] for improvement for ACE inhibitor and 0.76 [95% credible interval, 0.56-1.05] for ARB compared with control). The posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitors and ARBs worsened organ support–free days compared with control were 94.9% and 95.4%, respectively. Hospital survival occurred in 166 of 231 critically ill participants (71.9%) in the ACE inhibitor group, 152 of 217 (70.0%) in the ARB group, and 182 of 231 (78.8%) in the control group (posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitor and ARB worsened hospital survival compared with control were 95.3% and 98.1%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this trial, among critically ill adults with COVID-19, initiation of an ACE inhibitor or ARB did not improve, and likely worsened, clinical outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT0273570

Extending Bayesian back-calculation to estimate age and time specific HIV incidence

CD4-based multi-state back-calculation methods are key for monitoring the HIV epidemic, providing estimates of HIV incidence and diagnosis rates by disentangling their inter-related contribution to the observed surveillance data. This paper, extends existing approaches to age-specific settings, permitting the joint estimation of age- and time-specific incidence and diagnosis rates and the derivation of other epidemiological quantities of interest. This allows the identification of specific age-groups at higher risk of infection, which is crucial in directing public health interventions. We investigate, through simulation studies, the suitability of various bivariate splines for the non-parametric modelling of the latent age- and time-specific incidence and illustrate our method on routinely collected data from the HIV epidemic among gay and bisexual men in England and Wales

Methylation Levels of CADM1, MAL, and MIR124-2 in Cervical Scrapes for Triage of HIV-Infected, High-Risk HPV-Positive Women in Kenya.

Objectives: To evaluate the value of cervical cell methylation markers in screening HIV-infected women also positive for high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV). Design: Cross-sectional and prospective. Methods: Two hundred forty-eight HIV-infected hrHPV-positive women enrolled in a cervical cancer screening study in Nairobi, Kenya, had colposcopy-directed biopsy and histological diagnoses. Exfoliated cervical cells were used to measure methylation levels of the CADM1, MAL, and MIR124-2 genes using quantitative methylation-specific polymerase chain reaction. Methylation levels were summarized as cycle threshold (Ct) ratios compared with the β-actin gene. Median Ct ratios were compared across histological diagnoses, with 95% confidence intervals calculated by bootstrapping. Methylation levels at 6 months were assessed in 128 women who remained hrHPV positive. Results: All 3 methylation markers showed significantly (P \u3c 0.001) raised median Ct ratios in women with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 3 compared with women with a normal cervix. When markers were combined into a single test, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for prediction of CIN2 or worse (CIN2+) was 0.80. When the test was calibrated to have similar specificity, sensitivity of the combined tri-marker test for CIN2+ was comparable with cytology [atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance or worse] (89% and 95%, respectively) and superior to visual inspection with acetic acid (85% vs 70%) and HPV16/18 genotyping (65% vs 40%). Among women with no CIN2+ at baseline and persistent hrHPV at 6-month follow-up, MAL-m1 and MIR124-2 Ct ratios increased significantly. Conclusions: Methylation markers in combination with HPV testing may offer a full molecular screening strategy to the many HIV-infected women who are also hrHPV positive