Properties of rainfall in a tropical volcanic island deduced from UHF wind profiler measurements

The microphysical properties of rainfall at the island of Réunion are analysed and quantified according to one year of wind profiler observations collected at Saint-Denis international airport. The statistical analysis clearly shows important differences in rain vertical profiles as a function of the seasons. During the dry season, the vertical structure of precipitation is driven by trade wind and boundary-layer inversions, both of which limit the vertical extension of the clouds. The rain rate is lower than 2.5 mm h⁻¹ throughout the lower part of the troposphere (about 2 km) and decreases in the higher altitudes. During the moist season, the average rain rate is around 5 mm h⁻¹ and nearly uniform from the ground up to 4 km. <br><br> The dynamical and microphysical properties (including drop size distributions) of four distinct rainfall events are also investigated through the analysis of four case studies representative of the variety of rain events occurring on Réunion: summer deep convection, northerly-to-northeasterly flow atmospheric pattern, cold front and winter depression embedded in trade winds. Radar-derived rain parameters are in good agreement with those obtained from collocated rain gauge observations in all cases, which demonstrates that accurate qualitative and quantitative analysis can be inferred from wind profiler data. Fluxes of kinetic energy are also estimated from wind profiler observations in order to evaluate the impact of rainfall on soil erosion. Results show that horizontal kinetic energy fluxes are systematically one order of magnitude higher than vertical kinetic energy fluxes. A simple relationship between the reflectivity factor and vertical kinetic energy fluxes is proposed based on the results of the four case studies

Combining short-range dispersion simulations with fine-scale meteorological ensembles: probabilistic indicators and evaluation during a ⁸⁵Kr field campaign

Numerical atmospheric dispersion models (ADMs) are used for predicting the health and environmental consequences of nuclear accidents in order to anticipate countermeasures necessary to protect the populations. However, these simulations suffer from significant uncertainties, arising in particular from input data: weather conditions and source term. Meteorological ensembles are already used operationally to characterize uncertainties in weather predictions. Combined with dispersion models, these ensembles produce different scenarios of radionuclide dispersion, called “members”, representative of the variety of possible forecasts. In this study, the fine-scale operational weather ensemble AROME-EPS (Applications of Research to Operations at Mesoscale-Ensemble Prediction System) from Météo-France is coupled with the Gaussian puff model pX developed by the IRSN (French Institute for Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety). The source term data are provided at 10 min resolution by the Orano La Hague reprocessing plant (RP) that regularly discharges 85Kr during the spent nuclear fuel reprocessing process. In addition, a continuous measurement campaign of 85Kr air concentration was recently conducted by the Laboratory of Radioecology in Cherbourg (LRC) of the IRSN, within 20 km of the RP in the North-Cotentin peninsula, and is used for model evaluation. This paper presents a probabilistic approach to study the meteorological uncertainties in dispersion simulations at local and medium distances (2–20 km). First, the quality of AROME-EPS forecasts is confirmed by comparison with observations from both Météo-France and the IRSN. Then, the probabilistic performance of the atmospheric dispersion simulations was evaluated by comparison to the 85Kr measurements carried out during a period of 2 months, using two probabilistic scores: relative operating characteristic (ROC) curves and Peirce skill score (PSS). The sensitivity of dispersion results to the method used for the calculation of atmospheric stability and associated Gaussian dispersion standard deviations is also discussed. A desirable feature for a model used in emergency response is the ability to correctly predict exceedance of a given value (for instance, a dose guide level). When using an ensemble of simulations, the “decision threshold” is the number of members predicting an event above which this event should be considered probable. In the case of the 16-member dispersion ensemble used here, the optimal decision threshold was found to be 3 members, above which the ensemble better predicts the observed peaks than the deterministic simulation. These results highlight the added value of ensemble forecasts compared to a single deterministic one and their potential interest in the decision process during crisis situations.</p

A deep stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone transport event over Europe simulated in CAMS global and regional forecast systems: analysis and evaluation

Stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) is an important natural source of tropospheric ozone, which can occasionally influence ground-level ozone concentrations relevant for air quality. Here, we analyse and evaluate the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) global and regional forecast systems during a deep STT event over Europe for the time period from 4 to 9 January 2017. The predominant synoptic condition is described by a deep upper level trough over eastern and central Europe, favouring the formation of tropopause folding events along the jet stream axis and therefore the intrusion of stratospheric ozone into the troposphere. Both global and regional CAMS forecast products reproduce the hook-shaped streamer of ozone-rich and dry air in the middle troposphere depicted from the observed satellite images of water vapour. The CAMS global model successfully reproduces the folding of the tropopause at various European sites, such as Trapani (Italy), where a deep folding down to 550&thinsp;hPa is seen. The stratospheric ozone intrusions into the troposphere observed by WOUDC ozonesonde and IAGOS aircraft measurements are satisfactorily forecasted up to 3 days in advance by the CAMS global model in terms of both temporal and vertical features of ozone. The fractional gross error (FGE) of CAMS ozone day 1 forecast between 300 and 500&thinsp;hPa is 0.13 over Prague, while over Frankfurt it is 0.04 and 0.19, highlighting the contribution of data assimilation, which in most cases improves the model performance. Finally, the meteorological and chemical forcing of CAMS global forecast system in the CAMS regional forecast systems is found to be beneficial for predicting the enhanced ozone concentrations in the middle troposphere during a deep STT event.</p

Design S-N curves for old Portuguese and French riveted bridges connection based on statistical analyses

Maintenance of ancient road and railway metallic bridges has become a major concern for governmental agencies in the past few decades. Indeed, since the construction of these structures, between the end of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th century, traffic conditions have evolved, both in weight and frequency. In the purpose to assess the remaining life of old metallic bridges, some critical structural details have been identified and associated to S-N curves in order to be used in damage estimation (using Palmgren-Miner’s rule for cumulative damage, for example). These constructional details are described by design rules of several European and North American standards, such as the Eurocode 3, BS 5400 and AASHTO standards. The particularity of ancient bridges is that hot riveted assemblies, commonly used for their construction, are not represented in most construction standards. Further experiences on the matter by numerous research teams have suggested detail category C71 from the Eurocode 3 as appropriate. In this paper, experimental data from double shear assemblies manufactures from three different metallic ancient bridges is used to identify, through a statistical analysis, the S-N curves that best fit this constructional detail. Portuguese and French puddled iron bridges were considered.The authors of this paper thank the National Society of French Railways and the SciTech - Science and Technology for Competitive and Sustainable Industries, R&D project NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000022 cofinanced by Programa Operacional Regional do Norte ("NORTE2020"), through Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional (FEDER) for their collaboration and support during this research works. The authors also acknowledge the Portuguese Science Foundation (FCT) for the financial support through the post-doctoral grant SFRH/BPD/107825/2015

A tailored multi-model ensemble for air traffic management: Demonstration and evaluation for the Eyjafjallajökull eruption in May 2010

High quality volcanic ash forecasts are crucial to minimize the economic impact of volcanic hazards on air traffic. Decision-making is usually based on numerical dispersion modeling with only one model realization. Given the inherent uncertainty of such approach, a multi-model multi-source term ensemble has been designed and evaluated for the Eyjafjallaj&ouml;kull eruption in May 2010. Its use for air traffic management is discussed. Two multi-model ensembles were built: the first is based on the output of four dispersion models and their own implementation of ash ejection. All a priori model source terms were constrained by observational evidence of the volcanic ash cloud top as a function of time. The second ensemble is based on the same four dispersion models, which were run with three additional source terms: (i) a source term obtained with background modeling constrained with satellite data (a posteriori source term), (ii) its lower bound estimate, and (iii) its upper bound estimate. The a priori ensemble gives valuable information about the probability of ash dispersion during the early phase of the eruption, when observational evidence is limited. However, its evaluation with observational data reveals lower quality compared to the second ensemble. While the second ensemble ash column load and ash horizontal location compare well to satellite observations, 3D ash concentrations are negatively biased. This might be caused by the vertical distribution of ash, which is too much diluted in all model runs, probably due to defaults in the a posteriori source term and vertical transport and/or diffusion processes in all models. Relevant products for the air traffic management are horizontal maps of ash concentration quantiles (median, 75 %, 99 %) at a fine-resolved flight level grid. These maps can be used for route optimization in the areas where ash does not pose a direct and urgent threat to aviation. Cost-optimized consideration of such hazards will result in much less impact on flight cancellations, reroutings, and traffic flow congestions.</p

The Neurotensin Receptor-1 Pathway Contributes to Human Ductal Breast Cancer Progression

BACKGROUND: The neurotensin (NTS) and its specific high affinity G protein coupled receptor, the NT1 receptor (NTSR1), are considered to be a good candidate for one of the factors implicated in neoplastic progression. In breast cancer cells, functionally expressed NT1 receptor coordinates a series of transforming functions including cellular migration and invasion. METHODS AND RESULTS: we investigated the expression of NTS and NTSR1 in normal human breast tissue and in invasive ductal breast carcinomas (IDCs) by immunohistochemistry and RT-PCR. NTS is expressed and up-regulated by estrogen in normal epithelial breast cells. NTS is also found expressed in the ductal and invasive components of IDCs. The high expression of NTSR1 is associated with the SBR grade, the size of the tumor, and the number of metastatic lymph nodes. Furthermore, the NTSR1 high expression is an independent factor of prognosis associated with the death of patients. CONCLUSION: these data support the activation of neurotensinergic deleterious pathways in breast cancer progression

[Palliative care in delivery room for preterm infants less than 24weeks of gestation. Analysis of two different behaviors.]

International audienceAIMS OF THE STUDY: To describe the management of extremely preterm newborns at the threshold of viability before 24weeks of gestation in the delivery room when the decision has been made not to provide intensive care; to assess the role of palliative care (PC); to report the problems encountered. METHOD: A prospective qualitative study was conducted using semi-structured interviews from November 2009 to June 2010 in two level III French maternity hospitals (A and B). In each center, four midwives, two obstetricians, two pediatricians, two anesthetists, and one chief midwife were interviewed. RESULTS: In maternity hospital A, a protocol was in place that proposed PC derived from developmental care (noise limitation, drying, warming) provided by parents or staff. The problems reported were related to former euthanasia practices rather than new procedures. In maternity hospital B, no palliative care protocol had been set up. Euthanasia was practiced and accepted fatalistically because the only currently existing alternative (letting the infant die) was considered inhumane. Few problems were reported. The reluctance to carry out PC is conceptual and organizational (the ratio of births per midwife in maternity hospital B was twice that of maternity hospital A). Lexical analysis showed preferential use of the words "fetus" and "expulsion" versus "child" and "delivery" in maternity hospital B (p<0.05) when speaking of the delivery of the extremely preterm infant. Our explanatory hypothesis is that the concept of "fetus ex utero" legitimates euthanasia by assimilating it to feticide. CONCLUSION: At the time of this study, two very different approaches to the death of extremely preterm, non-resuscitated newborns in the delivery room coexisted in France. Palliative care is obviously possible, after group reflection, if a true motivation to change, a better understanding of the law, and a clear identification of the respective status of the fetus and the newborn exist in the maternity hospital