Reliability Analysis Approach For Operations Planning Of Hydropower Systems

Many existing hydropower storage facilities were built decades ago and components of these aging infrastructure facilities have higher risk of failure. Insufficient capacity or forced outages of the spillway and other waterway passage facilities during flooding incident could potentially increase the probability of dam safety incidents leading to public safety concerns. Currently approaches used to assess the risk and uncertainty in operational decision making are mainly based on qualitative assessment and expert judgment and can be significantly improved by the development of a framework that formally incorporates both qualitative and quantitative reliability analysis methods. Event tree analysis and fault tree analysis have traditionally been used in dam safety risk analysis, with results subject to data adequacy and availability. Our research shows that other methods, such as nonparametric analysis and Monte Carlo simulation techniques can yield good results as well. This study investigated the application of reliability analysis methods to existing hydropower storage facilities, with the objective of developing a new systems engineering based approach for risk and uncertainty analysis to assess and manage the risks of hydropower system operations. Our approach integrates reliability-based methods with hydro system optimization modeling to develop an operational reliability-based modeling framework and to formally treat risk and uncertainty in operations planning. This approach incorporates different sources of uncertainty that are typically encountered in operations planning of these systems, including failure probability of hydro system components such as non-power release structures and turbine facilities. This paper presents the framework we have developed and illustrates the application of our investigation for a hydropower system facility in British Columbia, Canada

A Multi-Objective Optimization Model For Operations Planning Of Multi-Reservoir Systems

This paper presents the development and evaluation of a multi-objective linear programming (LP) optimization tool for an operations planning platform (OPP). The LP optimization model is coded using a high level programming language called AMPL (A Mathematical Programming Language) and solved using a solver called CPLEX. This model was developed by closely working with operations planning engineers at BC Hydro, in Canada, with the support of a research team from the University of British Columbia. The optimization model incorporates two objectives to optimize the operation of a multi reservoir system: maximize revenue from power generation, and to minimize penalties resulting from deviations of reservoir elevations and spill releases from a preferred operating regime. Several multi-objective optimization techniques are being investigated including traditional methods such as the Weighting Method and the Constraint Method, as well as Goal Programming (GP) techniques. These methods would be tested for optimality and computational efficiency and would be generalized and used to study a number of multi-reservoir systems in British Columbia. Stochastic inflows would be considered in the model making use of chance-constraints and probability distribution functions based on historical inflow records. The model also incorporates features which simulate maintenance outages on hydropower plants. The goal is to determine the optimal maintenance schedules that minimize the cost of these outages. We present results of a case study to illustrate the capabilities of the model to provide decision makers with timely information on trade-off between different objectives. Maintenance schedules of generating units with and without optimization are also considered

On the Detectability and Use of Normal Modes for Determining Interior Structure of Mars

ISSN:1572-9672ISSN:0038-630