Modeling deforestation in the state of Rondônia

This study applied a deforestation model for the entire State of Rondônia assuming three scenarios of deforestation: business as usual, optimistic and pessimistic. Those scenarios were constructed for the time-period of 2012-2050 using the Dinamica EGO software. Rondônia deforestation dataset was provided by the Agência Ambiental do Estado de Rondônia (Rondônia State Environmental Agency) and was used as input of the deforestation modeling. Based on this study results, we estimated that 32%, 37% and 47% of Rondônia’s native forest could be fully deforested by 2050 assuming the optimistic, business as usual and pessimistic scenarios, respectively. Regardless of the chosen scenario, we expect that deforestation will be spatially concentrated in Northern Rondônia in the next decades. The greatest concern, however, could be the integrity of the protected areas assuming the business as usual and/or pessimistic scenario. In addition, we expect a substantial increase of the forest fragmentation by 2050

Deforestation assessment in the state of Rondônia between 2001 and 2011

No presente estudo, foi avaliada a acurácia dos mapeamentos do desmatamento conduzidos pelo Programa de Monitoramento do Desflorestamento na Amazônia (PRODES) do Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) e pela Secretaria de Estado do Desenvolvimento Ambiental (SEDAM), para o Estado de Rondônia, no período entre 2001 a 2011, utilizando imagens Landsat 5 TM. Com base nos resultados deste estudo, os mapeamentos conduzidos pela SEDAM e pelo PRODES-INPE apresentaram coeficientes Kappa similares, estimados em 0,89 e 0,87, respectivamente. Os dados do desmatamento dos sistemas PRODES e SEDAM revelaram um decréscimo nas taxas de desmatamento em todo o Estado de Rondônia no período de análise, embora os desmatamentos ilegais dentro de áreas protegidas tenham aumentado cerca de 400% entre 2002 e 2011. Assumindo-se esta tendência de desmatamento da última década, é possível afirmar que as terras indígenas e unidades de conservação (UC) em Rondônia serão os principais alvos de desmatamento e destruição nos próximos anos.The goal of this study was to assess the accuracy of deforestation maps produced by the National Institute for Spatial Research (INPE) and the Rondônia State Secretariat of Environmental Development (SEDAM) for the state of Rondônia between 2001 and 2011. Our results show that the deforestation mappings conducted by SEDAM and PRODES-INPE present similar Kappa coefficients, which were estimated at 0.89 and 0.87, respectively. The deforestation datasets prepared by PRODES and SEDAM show a decrease in deforestation rates in Rondônia state in the study period. However, there was a significant increase in illegal deforestation (approximately 400% within the protected areas) in this period. Based on the deforestation trend observed in the past decade, we can affirm that forests inside protected areas are the main targets for deforestation in Rondônia state

Modeling Deforestation and CO2 Emissions in Tropical Forests (Western South Amazon)

Spatial modeling is a tool to represent deforestation and predict future scenarios according to different landscape change. Establishing 80% Legal Reserve Area (LR) in the Amazon since 90th, the Brazilian forestry code has made clear the biodiversity conservation profile of the largest tropical forest in the world. However, this mechanism did not prevent the advance of deforestation, which in recent years has increased again. This remote tool aims to monitor the deforestation, simulating its possible future trajectories, and thus generate information that can be used to assist in the management of deforestation reduction. The spatial modeling in the prediction of different deforestation scenarios based on public policies and their changes to the state of Acre (north of Brazil). Using the methodological processes of the Dinamica EGO software, three scenarios were projected up to the year 2050: (1) deforestation “Business as usual”, (2) deforestation with 50% LR and (3) deforestation with 80% LR provided by law. Based on these results it was evident that maintaining and respect 80% LR, it’s possible reduce the CO2 emissions more than 76%, avoiding around 119,534,836 t of CO2 and influences positively on reducing deforestation. Dinamica EGO proved to be an effective to represent the deforestation

Long-term Landsat-based monthly burned area dataset for the Brazilian biomes using Deep Learning

Fire is a significant agent of landscape transformation on Earth, and a dynamic and ephemeral process that is challenging to map. Difficulties include the seasonality of native vegetation in areas affected by fire, the high levels of spectral heterogeneity due to the spatial and temporal variability of the burned areas, distinct persistence of the fire signal, increase in cloud and smoke cover surrounding burned areas, and difficulty in detecting understory fire signals. To produce a large-scale time-series of burned area, a robust number of observations and a more efficient sampling strategy is needed. In order to overcome these challenges, we used a novel strategy based on a machine-learning algorithm to map monthly burned areas from 1985 to 2020 using Landsat-based annual quality mosaics retrieved from minimum NBR values. The annual mosaics integrated year-round observations of burned and unburned spectral data (i.e., RED, NIR, SWIR-1, and SWIR-2), and used them to train a Deep Neural Network model, which resulted in annual maps of areas burned by land use type for all six Brazilian biomes. The annual dataset was used to retrieve the frequency of the burned area, while the date on which the minimum NBR was captured in a year, was used to reconstruct 36 years of monthly burned area. Results of this effort indicated that 19.6% (1.6 million km2) of the Brazilian territory was burned from 1985 to 2020, with 61% of this area burned at least once. Most of the burning (83%) occurred between July and October. The Amazon and Cerrado, together, accounted for 85% of the area burned at least once in Brazil. Native vegetation was the land cover most affected by fire, representing 65% of the burned area, while the remaining 35% burned in areas dominated by anthropogenic land uses, mainly pasture. This novel dataset is crucial for understanding the spatial and long-term temporal dynamics of fire regimes that are fundamental for designing appropriate public policies for reducing and controlling fires in Brazil

Modeling the dynamics of use and land cover of the state of Rondônia by 2050

Dissertação (mestrado)–Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Tecnologia, Departamento de Engenharia Florestal, 2014.A expansão e as mudanças no uso e cobertura da terra no estado de Rondônia estão vinculadas principalmente às atividades do extrativismo madeireiro e a agropecuária, o que resultou na conversão de cerca de 7,6 milhões de hectares de florestas nativas em outros usos da terra até 2011. O monitoramento do processo de expansão agropecuária na região somente é possível mediante o uso de ferramentas de geoprocessamento para o estudo e melhor compreensão dessa problemática, envolvendo base de dados georreferenciada e a modelagem espacial, que permitem representar o desmatamento, simulando as suas possíveis trajetórias futuras. No presente estudo, estimou-se acurácias das bases de dados do desmatamento conduzido pelo PRODES-INPE (Programa de Monitoramento do Desflorestamento na Amazônia - Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais) e pela SEDAM (Secretaria de Estado do Desenvolvimento Ambiental). Com base nos resultados dessa pesquisa, a base de dados do desmatamento da SEDAM foi escolhida e utilizada como entrada de dados para o programa Dinamica EGO na modelagem futura do desmatamento em Rondônia. Três cenários de desmatamento até o ano de 2050 foram construídos para o Estado: cenário tendencial, otimista e pessimista. No cenário otimista, assumiu-se pleno sucesso na implementação da política ambiental, baixas taxas (0,4% a.a.) de desmatamento (observadas entre 2009 a 2011) e efetividade total na execução do Zoneamento Socioeconômico-Ecológico de Rondônia (ZSEE-RO). No cenário tendencial assumiu-se a manutenção dos padrões atuais de implementação da política ambiental, alguns problemas para implementação do ZSEE-RO e baixas taxas (0,4% a.a.) de desmatamento. No cenário pessimista assumiu-se as mesmas condições do cenário anterior, exceto altas taxas (0,7% a.a.) de desmatamento (observadas entre 2007 a 2011). Com base nos cenários otimista, tendencial e pessimista um total de 32%, 37% e 47% da cobertura florestal de Rondônia estará totalmente desmatado até o ano de 2050, respectivamente. Os resultados de todos os cenários deste estudo revelam ainda que o desmatamento em Rondônia no futuro estará concentrado na parte Norte do Estado. E, com base nos cenários tendencial e pessimista, a fragmentação florestal deverá ter aumento substancial no Estado. Finalmente, os resultados dos cenários construídos neste estudo podem servir de referência aos tomadores de decisão e contribuir para o melhor entendimento e definição de estratégias futuras de redução do desmatamento em Rondônia e na região Amazônica. ______________________________________________________________________________ ABSTRACTMost of the land use and land cover changes in the state of Rondônia are linked to selective logging and agriculture activities, which had affected more than 7 million hectares of tropical forest through its conversion into other land use types by the year 2011. Deforestation monitoring is feasible only if using geoprocessing tools to study this land occupation process, involving a geodatabase and spatial modeling software, which may allow to predict and simulate future deforestation trajectories in that region. In this study, accuracy assessment of deforestation datasets was conducted for the PRODES-INPE (Amazon Deforestation Monitoring Program - Institute for Space Research) and SEDAM (Environmental State Secretariat) datasets. Based on this research results, the SEDAM deforestation dataset was chosen and used as input for the DYNAMIC EGO program. Three deforestation scenarios up to 2050 were developed for the state of Rondônia: business as usual, optimistic, and pessimist scenarios. In the optimist scenario it was assumed successful environmental policy enforcement, low annual deforestation rates (0.4%) observed between 2009 and 2011, and successful Ecological-Economical zoning implementation. In the business as usual scenario it was assumed the current status of the environmental law and policy enforcements, issues implementing the Ecological-Economical zoning, and low annual deforestation rates (0.4%). In the pessimist scenario it was assumed high annual deforestation rates (0.7%) observed between 2007 and 2011, and further assumptions from the previous scenario. By 2050, 47%, 37%, and 32% of Rondônia forest cover will cleared cut according to the pessimist, business as usual, and optimist scenarios, respectively. These research results showed that deforestation rates are likely to increase in the North of the State at the pessimist and business as usual scenarios. Forest fragmentation is likely to substantially increase according to the business as usual and Pessimist scenarios. Finally, the scenarios results may be an important contribution for decision makers to a better understand and curb deforestation in the state of Rondônia and Amazon region

Avaliação do desmatamento no estado de Rondônia entre 2001 e 2011

No presente estudo, foi avaliada a acurácia dos mapeamentos do desmatamento conduzidos pelo Programa de Monitoramento do Desflorestamento na Amazônia (PRODES) do Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) e pela Secretaria de Estado do Desenvolvimento Ambiental (SEDAM), para o Estado de Rondônia, no período entre 2001 a 2011, utilizando imagens Landsat 5 TM. Com base nos resultados deste estudo, os mapeamentos conduzidos pela SEDAM e pelo PRODES-INPE apresentaram coeficientes Kappa similares, estimados em 0,89 e 0,87, respectivamente. Os dados do desmatamento dos sistemas PRODES e SEDAM revelaram um decréscimo nas taxas de desmatamento em todo o Estado de Rondônia no período de análise, embora os desmatamentos ilegais dentro de áreas protegidas tenham aumentado cerca de 400% entre 2002 e 2011. Assumindo-se esta tendência de desmatamento da última década, é possível afirmar que as terras indígenas e unidades de conservação (UC) em Rondônia serão os principais alvos de desmatamento e destruição nos próximos anos

O avanço do desflorestamento no município de Boca do Acre, Amazonas: estudo de caso ao longo da BR-317

In the Amazon, around 17,000 km2/year are converted into agriculture and pasture. Until 2009, the state of Amazonas presented a minor percentage of deforestation, around 2,5%, mainly concentrated in the districts of the South and Lower Amazonas, responsible for 75% of the deforested areas of the state. Infrastructure, like roads, has been identified as primary drivers of deforestation. The goal of this work was to quantify the deforestation in Boca do Acre, using data from the PRODES program, provided by INPE. The study analyzed the history, annual rates, size of polygons (0-3 ha, 3-10 ha, 10-60 ha, 60-100 ha, 100-200 ha, 200-1.000 ha and > 1.000 ha) and the influence of BR-317 highway (50 km buffer) on deforestation up to 2009. The results show that Boca do Acre has around 9% of modified areas (200,000 ha). 2003 was the year of major rates of deforestation, corresponding to almost 13% of the total deforestation. The classes of deforestation polygons that contributed most were 10-60 ha (36%) and 200-1000 ha (22%). Between 2006-2009 was the historic period of continuous decrease of deforestation, within an average annual rate of 0.22%. As the BR-317 highwayis completed, public policies that put a value on forest resources and land zoning become important for reducing the pressure of deforestation and maintaining biodiversity.Pages: 3021-302

Desflorestamento nos municípios da Regional do Alto Acre e Capixaba no Estado do Acre

The state of Acre has around 88% of its original vegetation, with a deforestation rate of 0,42% per year one of the lowest rates in the Brazilian Amazon. Upper Acre and Capixaba (formed by Capixaba, Xapuri, Epitaciolândia, Brasiléia and Assis Brasil) contain the axis of industrial expansion in Acre, connected with the infrastructure expansion Project, along the BR-317 highway (the Interoceanic road). The goal of this work is to trace the evolution of deforestation up to 2009 in the Upper Acre and Capixaba. PRODES provided the data used in this study. This paper quantified the total deforestation per year and stratification of deforestation poligones by size (100 ha). 2003 was the year of highest deforestation, followed by a progressive reduction until the present. There is a predominance of deforestation polygons between 3-10 ha and 10-60 ha, mainly in Brasileia and Xapuri, which contributed with 67% to the total regional deforestation. With the completion of the Interoceanic highway, the dynamic of land use will become more intense. Thus, even with the reduction of deforestation in the region in recent years, it is necessary to improve the implementation of public policies directed toward the reduction of deforestation and inspection process.Pages: 3005-301