Cavity Reactor Engineering Mockup Critical Experiment

Critical mass of uranium 235 for stainless steel lined cavities in nuclear research and test reactors with heavy water reflecto

It's just a feeling: why economic models do not explain

Julian Reiss correctly identified a trilemma about economic models: we cannot maintain that they are false, but nevertheless explain and that only true accounts explain. In this reply we give reasons to reject the second premise – that economic models explain. Intuitions to the contrary should be distrusted

The FIT Model - Fuel-cycle Integration and Tradeoffs

All mass streams from fuel separation and fabrication are products that must meet some set of product criteria – fuel feedstock impurity limits, waste acceptance criteria (WAC), material storage (if any), or recycle material purity requirements such as zirconium for cladding or lanthanides for industrial use. These must be considered in a systematic and comprehensive way. The FIT model and the “system losses study” team that developed it [Shropshire2009, Piet2010] are an initial step by the FCR&D program toward a global analysis that accounts for the requirements and capabilities of each component, as well as major material flows within an integrated fuel cycle. This will help the program identify near-term R&D needs and set longer-term goals. The question originally posed to the “system losses study” was the cost of separation, fuel fabrication, waste management, etc. versus the separation efficiency. In other words, are the costs associated with marginal reductions in separations losses (or improvements in product recovery) justified by the gains in the performance of other systems? We have learned that that is the wrong question. The right question is: how does one adjust the compositions and quantities of all mass streams, given uncertain product criteria, to balance competing objectives including cost? FIT is a method to analyze different fuel cycles using common bases to determine how chemical performance changes in one part of a fuel cycle (say used fuel cooling times or separation efficiencies) affect other parts of the fuel cycle. FIT estimates impurities in fuel and waste via a rough estimate of physics and mass balance for a set of technologies. If feasibility is an issue for a set, as it is for “minimum fuel treatment” approaches such as melt refining and AIROX, it can help to make an estimate of how performances would have to change to achieve feasibility

On the Mathematical Constitution and Explanation of Physical Facts

The mathematical nature of modern physics suggests that mathematics is bound to play some role in explaining physical reality. Yet, there is an ongoing controversy about the prospects of mathematical explanations of physical facts and their nature. A common view has it that mathematics provides a rich and indispensable language for representing physical reality but that, ontologically, physical facts are not mathematical and, accordingly, mathematical facts cannot really explain physical facts. In what follows, I challenge this common view. I argue that, in addition to its representational role, in modern physics mathematics is constitutive of the physical. Granted the mathematical constitution of the physical, I propose an account of explanation in which mathematical frameworks, structures, and facts explain physical facts. In this account, mathematical explanations of physical facts are either species of physical explanations of physical facts in which the mathematical constitution of some physical facts in the explanans are highlighted, or simply explanations in which the mathematical constitution of physical facts are highlighted. In highlighting the mathematical constitution of physical facts, mathematical explanations of physical facts deepen and increase the scope of the understanding of the explained physical facts. I argue that, unlike other accounts of mathematical explanations of physical facts, the proposed account is not subject to the objection that mathematics only represents the physical facts that actually do the explanation. I conclude by briefly considering the implications that the mathematical constitution of the physical has for the question of the unreasonable effectiveness of the use of mathematics in physics

The FIT Model - Fuel-cycle Integration and Tradeoffs

All mass streams from fuel separation and fabrication are products that must meet some set of product criteria – fuel feedstock impurity limits, waste acceptance criteria (WAC), material storage (if any), or recycle material purity requirements such as zirconium for cladding or lanthanides for industrial use. These must be considered in a systematic and comprehensive way. The FIT model and the “system losses study” team that developed it [Shropshire2009, Piet2010] are an initial step by the FCR&D program toward a global analysis that accounts for the requirements and capabilities of each component, as well as major material flows within an integrated fuel cycle. This will help the program identify near-term R&D needs and set longer-term goals. The question originally posed to the “system losses study” was the cost of separation, fuel fabrication, waste management, etc. versus the separation efficiency. In other words, are the costs associated with marginal reductions in separations losses (or improvements in product recovery) justified by the gains in the performance of other systems? We have learned that that is the wrong question. The right question is: how does one adjust the compositions and quantities of all mass streams, given uncertain product criteria, to balance competing objectives including cost? FIT is a method to analyze different fuel cycles using common bases to determine how chemical performance changes in one part of a fuel cycle (say used fuel cooling times or separation efficiencies) affect other parts of the fuel cycle. FIT estimates impurities in fuel and waste via a rough estimate of physics and mass balance for a set of technologies. If feasibility is an issue for a set, as it is for “minimum fuel treatment” approaches such as melt refining and AIROX, it can help to make an estimate of how performances would have to change to achieve feasibility

Estimating the Resources Needed and Savings Anticipated from Roll-Out of Adult Male Circumcision in Sub-Saharan Africa

Background: Trials in Africa indicate that medical adult male circumcision (MAMC) reduces the risk of HIV by 60%. MAMC may avert 2 to 8 million HIV infections over 20 years in sub-Saharan Africa and cost less than treating those who would have been infected. This paper estimates the financial and human resources required to roll out MAMC and the net savings due to reduced infections. Methods: We developed a model which included costing, demography and HIV epidemiology. We used it to investigate 14 countries in sub-Saharan Africa where the prevalence of male circumcision was lower than 80% and HIV prevalence among adults was higher than 5%, in addition to Uganda and the Nyanza province in Kenya. We assumed that the roll-out would take 5 years and lead to an MC prevalence among adult males of 85%. We also assumed that surgery would be done as it was in the trials. We calculated public program cost, number of full-time circumcisers and net costs or savings when adjusting for averted HIV treatments. Costs were in USD, discounted to 2007. 95% percentile intervals (95% PI) were estimated by Monte Carlo simulations. Results: In the first 5 years the number of circumcisers needed was 2 282 (95% PI: 2 018 to 2 959), or 0.24 (95% PI: 0.21 to 0.31) per 10 000 adults. In years 6-10, the number of circumcisers needed fell to 513 (95% PI: 452 to 664). The estimated 5-year cost of rolling out MAMC in the public sector was $919 million (95$672 million (95% PI: 437 to 1 021) and over 20 years there were net savings of $2.3 billion (95% PI: 1.4 to 3.4). Conclusion: A rapid roll-out of MAMC in sub-Saharan Africa requires substantial funding and a high number of circumcisers for the first five years. These investments are justified by MAMC's substantial health benefits and the savings accrued by averting future HIV infections. Lower ongoing costs and continued care savings suggest long-term sustainability

Assessment of factors associated with complete immunization coverage in children aged 12-23 months: a cross-sectional study in Nouna district, Burkina Faso

This study identifies specific factors associated with immunization status in Nouna health district (Burkina Faso) in order to advance improved intervention strategies in this district and in those with similar environmental and social contexts. While comprehensive communication may improve understanding about immunization, local interventions should also take into account religious specificities and critical economic periods. Communication problems need to be examined; for instance, many respondents did not understand what the health workers wanted; and or they assumed their child was already totally immunized. Particular approaches that take into consideration local distinctions need to be applied

Factive Scientific Understanding Without Accurate Representation

This paper analyzes two ways idealized biological models produce factive scientific understanding. I then argue that models can provide factive scientific understanding of a phenomenon without providing an accurate representation of the (difference-making) features of their real-world target system(s). My analysis of these cases also suggests that the debate over scientific realism needs to investigate the factive scientific understanding produced by scientists’ use of idealized models rather than the accuracy of scientific models themselves