The Housing Market and the Credit Default Swap premium in the UK Banking Sector: A VAR Approach

In the wake of the recent global financial crisis, this paper investigates the determinants of the Credit Default Swap premium in the UK banking sector for the period January 2004-April 2011. Employing a VAR model, we focus on the roles played by house prices, the yield spread, the UK TED spread and the FTSE 100 index. Our main results suggest that the CDS premium significantly increases in the medium term following a positive shock to the house price index, reflecting that continued house price appreciation can hide the likelihood of default risk, as shown in the insignificant response in the short run. We also find that a positive shock to the CDS premium significantly reduces house prices because it induces banks and other financial institutions to lend less, reducing the demand for housing and exerting further downward pressure on house prices. While a positive shock to stock prices lowers CDS premium, a positive shock to the liquidity premium increases CDS premium. Finally, our variance decomposition analysis shows that the house price shock explains over 19% of the long-run forecast-error variance of the CDS premium, while shocks in other variables each explain less than 8% of this forecast-error variance

Miocene sediments and faunas of Pakistan

The results of five field seasons of work on the Siwalik sediments of Northern Pakistan have greatly expanded our knowledge of these Miocene sediments and their vertebrate faunas. We have measured six long stratigraphic sections on the north limb of the Soan synclinorium near the town of Khaur. These columns, the longest of which is over 3,000 meters, provide the stratigraphic framework for our paleontological studies and give a detailed description of the lithological sequences in the Khaur region. We have concluded that the formational units of previous workers are poorly defined and of little practical value for biostratigraphy or chronostratigraphy. We recognize three major lithological facies: a blue-gray sand facies; a buff sand facies; and a silt/clay facies. The results of intensive paleomagnetic sampling allow a provisional correlation to the La Brecque magnetic time scale. The paleomagnetic sampling has also defined a series of isochrons, one of which we have followed laterally along a 30 km-long belt of outcrop. Certain lithological horizons may also be reliable chronostratigraphic markers. We hypothesize that the two sand facies correspond to two separate river systems which co-existed for millions of years. The characteristics of the blue-gray sandstones suggest a large braided river carrying sediment derived from a freshly weathered terrain. The buff sandstones display characteristics of both meandering and braided channels. The sediments of this river system were derived from an area of intense weathering. The silt/ clay facies represent levee and floodplain deposition. The pattern of interfingering of the two sandstone facies, with broad overlap on a scale of at least 30-40 km, indicates periodic fluctuations in the dominance of one or the other river system. These fluctuations are seen as the result of periodic, extensive influxes of the blue-gray system. Increased production of sand in the source area might have been the result of climatic or tectonic changes. Fossils are usually found only in the buff sands or their laterally equivalent fine-grained floodplain and levee deposits. We recognize three types of fossil localities based on the characters of the fossil assemblages and the sediments. Localities in channel-related deposits were formed as composite events averaged overtime and space, and therefore provide information suitable for paleoecological reconstructions. On the basis of appearances of key species we are provisionally defining a series of eleven biostratigraphic zones. These span the sequence from the Lower Siwaliks to the base of the Upper Siwaliks. The faunas of the three lowest zones show similarities to the Asteracian faunas of Europe and to the East African middle Miocene faunas. Zones 4 through 8 appear to be a period of faunal endemism although there are some resemblances to European and Asian faunas. Correlations of these middle zones are to Eurasian localities dated between 10 and 8 million years (m. y.). Beginning in Zone 9 the faunal endemism is disturbed by a series of immigrations and emigrations. Most of the interchanges seem to be with Africa. Correlations suggest ages of 8 to 6 m. y. for Zones 9 and 10. Paleomagnetic evidence places the base of Zone 11 at 5.1 m. y. Particularly important among the many thousands of fossils we have found are over one hundred new specimens of the hominoids Ramapithecus, Gigantopithecus, and Sivapithecus. Among the new finds are post-cranial elements which can be attributed to these three hominoids. The bulk of the hominoid collection comes from a stratigraphic level provisionally dated at 9 m. y. From the geological evidence we infer the large river systems were not stable through time. River floodplains were well drained with few lakes or ponds except in cut-off channels. Most of the time the shifting, braided channels of the buff river system were dominant, creating a mosaic of habitats by constant destruction and renewal of plant successions resulting in a vegetational mosaic of grassland, bush, and woodland. There is little detectable change in the trophic structure of the herbivores from Zone 1 through Zone 8. The faunal change in Zone 9 does suggest an underlying habitat change

Exploring the impact of safety culture on incident reporting: lessons learned from machine learning analysis of NHS England staff survey and incident data

Safety culture is one of the key factors contributing to safety, even though limited evidence supports its impact on safety outcomes. This study uses supervised machine learning algorithms to explore the association between safety culture and incident reporting. The study used National Health Service (NHS) England annual staff survey data as a proxy of safety culture to predict eighteen incident reporting variables. The study did not achieve high accuracy rates in the prediction models. The highest association was found between safety culture and the number of incidents reported in class low, medium and high. LightGBM was the best-performed algorithm. SHAP plots were used to explain the model. Findings suggest that compassionate culture, violence and harassment and work pressure are critical in predicting the number of incidents reported. More specifically, the violence and harassment had a more significant impact on predicting the number of incidents reported in class high than in class medium and low. The involvement had more effect on predicting class low. The results demonstrated different behaviours in predicting different incident reporting classes. The findings facilitate lessons learned from staff surveys and incident reporting data in NHS England. Consequently, the findings can contribute to improving the safety culture in hospitals

QTL analysis for growth and wood properties across multiple pedigrees and sites in Eucalyptus globulus

Eucalyptus globulus is the most widely planted species for pulpwood production in temperate regions of the world and there are breeding programs in numerous countries. There is interest in molecular approaches to breeding, particularly marker assisted selection of wood properties. QTL analysis has an important role in identifying positional candidate genes responsible for variation in wood properties. This is one approach to targeting genes which may harbour functional allelic variants (SNPs). The objective of this study was to detect and validate QTL across multiple sites and pedigrees, in order to identify genomic regions and genes affecting growth and wood properties with wide applicability in the species. We also aimed to determine the proportion of QTL which were stable in their expression across sites of contrasting productivity. Such information will be important to exploit the full potential of the impending Eucalyptus genome sequences. [Oral Presentation

Understanding employee resourcing in construction organizations

In recent years the literature on employee resourcing has consistently advocated the importance of adopting a holistic, strategic approach to employee deployment decision making rather than adopting a reactive needs-based approach. This is particularly problematic in construction where the multi-project environment leads to constantly changing resource requirements and to changing demands over a project's life cycle. This can lead to inappropriate decisions, which fail to meet the longer-term needs of both construction organizations and their employees. A structured and comprehensive understanding of the current project team deployment practices within large construction organizations was developed. Project deployment practices were examined within seven case study contracting firms. The emergent themes that shaped the decision-making processes were grouped into five broad clusters comprising human resource planning, performance/career management, team deployment, employee involvement and training and development. The research confirms that a reactive and ad hoc approach to the function prevails within the firms investigated. This suggests a weak relationship between the deployment process and human resource planning, team deployment, performance management, employee involvement and training and development activities. It is suggested that strategic HR-business partnering could engender more transparent and productive relationships in this crucial area

New Material of the Earliest Hominid from the Upper Miocene of Chad

Anthropolog

The impact of shadow banking on the implementation of Chinese monetary policy

This paper empirically analyses the relationship between the shadow banking system and implementation of monetary policy in China using the VECM methodology. We show that an increase in the size of shadow banking sector increases the independence of bank lending from the policies of the People Bank of China. We also find that Shadow Banking works in an asymmetric fashion in that it amplifies increases in the money supply but weakens the effects of restrictive interest rate-based monetary policy decisions

Mental Well-Being during COVID-19 : A Cross-Sectional Study of Fly-In Fly-Out Workers in the Mining Industry in Australia

Funding: This study was funded by the Mineral Resources Limited (Australia). Mineral Resources Limited provided AUD 200 shopping voucher to the winner of a raffle draw as reimbursement for study participation. Mineral Resources Limited played role in the data collection, interpretation of study findings, preparation and decision to submit this manuscript for publication but not in the design of the study and data analysis. The study was supported by Aberdeen-Curtin Alliance Curtin International Postgraduate Research Scholarship (CIPRS) in the writing of the manuscript. B.Y.-A.A. is a recipient of Aberdeen-Curtin Alliance PhD Curtin International Postgraduate Research Scholarship (CIPRS) and Research Stipend Scholarship. Acknowledgments: We express our profound gratitude to the Mineral Resources Limited, Australia for their support in advertising the study and allowing for us undertake this study among their workers. We also extend our appreciation to all the FIFO workers who took time to participate in this study.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Effect of arsenic-phosphorus interaction on arsenic-induced oxidative stress in chickpea plants

Arsenic-induced oxidative stress in chickpea was investigated under glasshouse conditions in response to application of arsenic and phosphorus. Three levels of arsenic (0, 30 and 60 mg kg−1) and four levels of P (50, 100, 200, and 400 mg kg−1) were applied to soil-grown plants. Increasing levels of both arsenic and P significantly increased arsenic concentrations in the plants. Shoot growth was reduced with increased arsenic supply regardless of applied P levels. Applied arsenic induced oxidative stress in the plants, and the concentrations of H2O2 and lipid peroxidation were increased. Activity of superoxide dismutase (SOD) and concentrations of non-enzymatic antioxidants decreased in these plants, but activities of catalase (CAT) and ascorbate peroxidase (APX) were significantly increased under arsenic phytotoxicity. Increased supply of P decreased activities of CAT and APX, and decreased concentrations of non-enzymatic antioxidants, but the high-P plants had lowered lipid peroxidation. It can be concluded that P increased uptake of arsenic from the soil, probably by making it more available, but although plant growth was inhibited by arsenic the P may have partially protected the membranes from arsenic-induced oxidative stress

Forecasting exchange rate volatility: GARCH models versus implied volatility forecasts

This study investigates whether different specifications of univariate GARCH models can usefully forecast volatility in the foreign exchange market. The study compares in-sample forecasts from symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models with the implied volatility derived from currency options for four dollar parities. The data set covers the period 2002 to 2012. We divide the data into two periods one for the period 2002 to 2007 which is characterised by low volatility and the other for the period 2008 to 2012 characterised by high volatility. The results of this paper reveal that the implied volatility forecasts significantly outperforms the three GARCH models in both low and high volatility periods. The results strongly suggest that the foreign exchange market efficiently prices in future volatility