22 research outputs found
Recommended from our members
Developing multiscale and integrative nature–people scenarios using the Nature Futures Framework
1. Scientists have repeatedly argued that transformative, multiscale global scenarios are needed as tools in the quest to halt the decline of biodiversity and achieve sustainability goals.
2. As a first step towards achieving this, the researchers who participated in the scenarios and models expert group of the Intergovernmental Science‐Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) entered into an iterative, participatory process that led to the development of the Nature Futures Framework (NFF).
3. The NFF is a heuristic tool that captures diverse, positive relationships of humans with nature in the form of a triangle. It can be used both as a boundary object for continuously opening up more plural perspectives in the creation of desirable nature scenarios and as an actionable framework for developing consistent nature scenarios across multiple scales.
4. Here we describe the methods employed to develop the NFF and how it fits into a longer term process to create transformative, multiscale scenarios for nature. We argue that the contribution of the NFF is twofold: (a) its ability to hold a plurality of perspectives on what is desirable, which enables the development of joint goals and visions and recognizes the possible convergence and synergies of measures to achieve these visions and (b), its multiscale functionality for elaborating scenarios and models that can inform decision‐making at relevant levels, making it applicable across specific places and perspectives on nature.
5. If humanity is to achieve its goal of a more sustainable and prosperous future rooted in a flourishing nature, it is critical to open up a space for more plural perspectives of human–nature relationships. As the global community sets out to develop new goals for biodiversity, the NFF can be used as a navigation tool helping to make diverse, desirable futures possible
Developing multiscale and integrative nature–people scenarios using the Nature Futures Framework
1. Scientists have repeatedly argued that transformative, multiscale global scenarios
are needed as tools in the quest to halt the decline of biodiversity and achieve
sustainability goals.
2. As a first step towards achieving this, the researchers who participated in the
scenarios and models expert group of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy
Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) entered into an iterative,
participatory process that led to the development of the Nature Futures Framework
(NFF).
3. The NFF is a heuristic tool that captures diverse, positive relationships of humans
with nature in the form of a triangle. It can be used both as a boundary object
for continuously opening up more plural perspectives in the creation of desirable
nature scenarios and as an actionable framework for developing consistent nature
scenarios across multiple scales.
4. Here we describe the methods employed to develop the NFF and how it fits into a
longer term process to create transformative, multiscale scenarios for nature. We
argue that the contribution of the NFF is twofold: (a) its ability to hold a plurality
of perspectives on what is desirable, which enables the development of joint goals
and visions and recognizes the possible convergence and synergies of measures to
achieve these visions and (b), its multiscale functionality for elaborating scenarios
and models that can inform decision-making at relevant levels, making it applicable
across specific places and perspectives on nature.
5. If humanity is to achieve its goal of a more sustainable and prosperous future
rooted in a flourishing nature, it is critical to open up a space for more plural per-
spectives of human–nature relationships. As the global community sets out to de-
velop new goals for biodiversity, the NFF can be used as a navigation tool helping
to make diverse, desirable futures possible
Recommended from our members
Multiscale scenarios for nature futures
Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales
Bringing the Nature Futures Framework to life: creating a set of illustrative narratives of nature futures
To halt further destruction of the biosphere, most people and societies around the globe need to transform their relationships with nature. The internationally agreed vision under the Convention of Biological Diversity—Living in harmony with
nature—is that “By 2050, biodiversity is valued, conserved, restored and wisely used, maintaining ecosystem services,
sustaining a healthy planet and delivering benefts essential for all people”. In this context, there are a variety of debates
between alternative perspectives on how to achieve this vision. Yet, scenarios and models that are able to explore these
debates in the context of “living in harmony with nature” have not been widely developed. To address this gap, the Nature
Futures Framework has been developed to catalyse the development of new scenarios and models that embrace a plurality
of perspectives on desirable futures for nature and people. In this paper, members of the IPBES task force on scenarios and
models provide an example of how the Nature Futures Framework can be implemented for the development of illustrative
narratives representing a diversity of desirable nature futures: information that can be used to assess and develop scenarios
and models whilst acknowledging the underpinning value perspectives on nature. Here, the term illustrative refects the
multiple ways in which desired nature futures can be captured by these narratives. In addition, to explore the interdependence
between narratives, and therefore their potential to be translated into scenarios and models, the six narratives developed here
were assessed around three areas of the transformative change debate, specifcally, (1) land sparing vs. land sharing, (2) Half
Earth vs. Whole Earth conservation, and (3) green growth vs. post-growth economic development. The paper concludes with
an assessment of how the Nature Futures Framework could be used to assist in developing and articulating transformative
pathways towards desirable nature futures
Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework
Long-term global scenarios have underpinned research and assessment of global environmental change for four decades. Over the past ten years, the climate change research community has developed a scenario framework combining alternative futures of climate and society to facilitate integrated research and consistent assessment to inform policy. Here we assess how well this framework is working and what challenges it faces. We synthesize insights from scenario-based literature, community discussions and recent experience in assessments, concluding that the framework has been widely adopted across research communities and is largely meeting immediate needs. However, some mixed successes and a changing policy and research landscape present key challenges, and we recommend several new directions for the development and use of this framework
Publisher Correction: Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework
Correction to: Nature Climate Change https://doi-org.proxy.library.uu.nl/10.1038/s41558-020-00952-0, published online 25 November 2020
Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework
Long-term global scenarios have underpinned research and assessment of global environmental change for four decades. Over the past ten years, the climate change research community has developed a scenario framework combining alternative futures of climate and society to facilitate integrated research and consistent assessment to inform policy. Here we assess how well this framework is working and what challenges it faces. We synthesize insights from scenario-based literature, community discussions and recent experience in assessments, concluding that the framework has been widely adopted across research communities and is largely meeting immediate needs. However, some mixed successes and a changing policy and research landscape present key challenges, and we recommend several new directions for the development and use of this framework
Publisher Correction: Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework
In the version of this Perspective originally published, the footnote of Table 1 incorrectly described the meanings of symbols in the table, and the tick marks paired with obeli symbols should have been + signs. The symbols have been amended, as has the footnote, which now reads “Tick marks indicate recommendations made to address the issue in the indicated column; + signs indicate benefits to additional issues”. The online versions of the Perspective have been corrected.</p