Variability in prey field structure drives inter-annual differences in prey encounter by a marine predator, the little penguin

This study was funded by Australian Research Council Linkage Grants (grant nos. LP110200603 and LP160100162), with contributions from the Taronga Conservation Society Australia.Understanding how marine predators encounter prey across patchy landscapes remains challenging due to difficulties in measuring the three-dimensional structure of pelagic prey fields at scales relevant to animal movement. We measured at-sea behaviour of a central-place forager, the little penguin (Eudyptula minor), over 5 years (2015–2019) using GPS and dive loggers. We made contemporaneous measurements of the prey field within the penguins' foraging range via boat-based acoustic surveys. We developed a prey encounter index by comparing estimates of acoustic prey density encountered along actual penguin tracks to those encountered along simulated penguin tracks with the same characteristics as real tracks but that moved randomly through the prey field. In most years, penguin tracks encountered prey better than simulated random movements greater than 99% of the time, and penguin dive depths matched peaks in the vertical distribution of prey. However, when prey was unusually sparse and/or deep, penguins had worse than random prey encounter indices, exhibited dives that mismatched depth of maximum prey density, and females had abnormally low body mass (5.3% lower than average). Reductions in prey encounters owing to decreases in the density or accessibility of prey may ultimately lead to reduced fitness and population declines in central-place foraging marine predators.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Coastal seascape variability in the intensifying East Australian Current Southern Extension

Funding: This study was funded by Australian Research Council Linkage Grants (LP110200603 awarded to RH, DS and Iain Field, and LP160100162 awarded to IJ, Martina Doublin, MC, GC, DS, Iain Suthers and RH) with contributions from the Taronga Conservation Society Australia, NSW National Parks and the Australian Antarctic Division.Coastal pelagic ecosystems are highly variable in space and time, with environmental conditions and the distribution of biomass being driven by complex processes operating at multiple scales. The emergent properties of these processes and their interactive effects result in complex and dynamic environmental mosaics referred to as “seascapes”. Mechanisms that link large-scale oceanographic processes and ecological variability in coastal environments remain poorly understood, despite their importance for predicting how ecosystems will respond to climate change. Here we assessed seascape variability along the path of the rapidly intensifying East Australian Current (EAC) Southern Extension in southeast Australia, a hotspot of ocean warming and ecosystem tropicalisation. Using satellite and in situ measures of temperature, salinity and current velocity coupled with contemporaneous measurements of pelagic biomass distribution from nine boat-based active acoustic surveys in five consecutive years, we investigated relationships between the physical environment and the distribution of pelagic biomass (zooplankton and fish) at multiple timescales. Survey periods were characterised by high variability in oceanographic conditions, with variation in coastal conditions influenced by meso-to-large scale processes occurring offshore, including the position and strength of eddies. Intra-annual variability was often of a similar or greater magnitude to inter-annual variability, suggesting highly dynamic conditions with important variation occurring at scales of days to weeks. Two seascape categories were identified being characterised by (A) warmer, less saline water and (B) cooler, more saline water, with the former indicating greater influence of the EAC on coastal processes. Warmer waters were also associated with fewer, deeper and less dense biological aggregations. As the EAC continues to warm and penetrate further south, it is likely that this will have substantial effects on biological activity in coastal pelagic ecosystems, including a potential reduction in the accessibility of prey aggregations to surface-feeding predators and to fisheries. These results highlight the import role of offshore oceanographic processes in driving coastal seascape variability and biological activity in a region undergoing rapid oceanic warming and ecological change.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Accumulation in coastal West Antarctic ice core records and the role of cyclone activity

Cyclones are an important component of Antarctic climate variability, yet quantifying their impact on the polar environment is challenging. We assess how cyclones which pass through the Bellingshausen Sea affect accumulation over Ellsworth Land, West Antarctica, where we have two ice core records. We use self-organizing maps (SOMs), an unsupervised machine learning technique, to group cyclones into nine SOM nodes differing by their trajectories (1980–2015). The annual frequency of cyclones associated with the first SOM node (SOM1, which generally originate from lower latitudes over the South Pacific Ocean) is significantly (p < 0.001) correlated with annual accumulation, with the highest seasonal correlations (p < 0.001) found during autumn. While significant (p < 0.01) increases in vertically integrated water vapor over the South Pacific Ocean coincide with this same group of cyclones, we find no indication that this has led to an increase in moisture advection into, nor accumulation over, Ellsworth Land over this short time period

Abdominal aortic aneurysm is associated with a variant in low-density lipoprotein receptor-related protein 1

Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is a common cause of morbidity and mortality and has a significant heritability. We carried out a genome-wide association discovery study of 1866 patients with AAA and 5435 controls and replication of promising signals (lead SNP with a p value &lt; 1 × 10-5) in 2871 additional cases and 32,687 controls and performed further follow-up in 1491 AAA and 11,060 controls. In the discovery study, nine loci demonstrated association with AAA (p &lt; 1 × 10-5). In the replication sample, the lead SNP at one of these loci, rs1466535, located within intron 1 of low-density-lipoprotein receptor-related protein 1 (LRP1) demonstrated significant association (p = 0.0042). We confirmed the association of rs1466535 and AAA in our follow-up study (p = 0.035). In a combined analysis (6228 AAA and 49182 controls), rs1466535 had a consistent effect size and direction in all sample sets (combined p = 4.52 × 10-10, odds ratio 1.15 [1.10-1.21]). No associations were seen for either rs1466535 or the 12q13.3 locus in independent association studies of coronary artery disease, blood pressure, diabetes, or hyperlipidaemia, suggesting that this locus is specific to AAA. Gene-expression studies demonstrated a trend toward increased LRP1 expression for the rs1466535 CC genotype in arterial tissues; there was a significant (p = 0.029) 1.19-fold (1.04-1.36) increase in LRP1 expression in CC homozygotes compared to TT homozygotes in aortic adventitia. Functional studies demonstrated that rs1466535 might alter a SREBP-1 binding site and influence enhancer activity at the locus. In conclusion, this study has identified a biologically plausible genetic variant associated specifically with AAA, and we suggest that this variant has a possible functional role in LRP1 expression

Finishing the euchromatic sequence of the human genome

The sequence of the human genome encodes the genetic instructions for human physiology, as well as rich information about human evolution. In 2001, the International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium reported a draft sequence of the euchromatic portion of the human genome. Since then, the international collaboration has worked to convert this draft into a genome sequence with high accuracy and nearly complete coverage. Here, we report the result of this finishing process. The current genome sequence (Build 35) contains 2.85 billion nucleotides interrupted by only 341 gaps. It covers ∼99% of the euchromatic genome and is accurate to an error rate of ∼1 event per 100,000 bases. Many of the remaining euchromatic gaps are associated with segmental duplications and will require focused work with new methods. The near-complete sequence, the first for a vertebrate, greatly improves the precision of biological analyses of the human genome including studies of gene number, birth and death. Notably, the human enome seems to encode only 20,000-25,000 protein-coding genes. The genome sequence reported here should serve as a firm foundation for biomedical research in the decades ahead

Animal-borne telemetry: An integral component of the ocean observing toolkit

Animal telemetry is a powerful tool for observing marine animals and the physical environments that they inhabit, from coastal and continental shelf ecosystems to polar seas and open oceans. Satellite-linked biologgers and networks of acoustic receivers allow animals to be reliably monitored over scales of tens of meters to thousands of kilometers, giving insight into their habitat use, home range size, the phenology of migratory patterns and the biotic and abiotic factors that drive their distributions. Furthermore, physical environmental variables can be collected using animals as autonomous sampling platforms, increasing spatial and temporal coverage of global oceanographic observation systems. The use of animal telemetry, therefore, has the capacity to provide measures from a suite of essential ocean variables (EOVs) for improved monitoring of Earth's oceans. Here we outline the design features of animal telemetry systems, describe current applications and their benefits and challenges, and discuss future directions. We describe new analytical techniques that improve our ability to not only quantify animal movements but to also provide a powerful framework for comparative studies across taxa. We discuss the application of animal telemetry and its capacity to collect biotic and abiotic data, how the data collected can be incorporated into ocean observing systems, and the role these data can play in improved ocean management

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Image_1_Coastal seascape variability in the intensifying East Australian Current Southern Extension.png

Coastal pelagic ecosystems are highly variable in space and time, with environmental conditions and the distribution of biomass being driven by complex processes operating at multiple scales. The emergent properties of these processes and their interactive effects result in complex and dynamic environmental mosaics referred to as “seascapes”. Mechanisms that link large-scale oceanographic processes and ecological variability in coastal environments remain poorly understood, despite their importance for predicting how ecosystems will respond to climate change. Here we assessed seascape variability along the path of the rapidly intensifying East Australian Current (EAC) Southern Extension in southeast Australia, a hotspot of ocean warming and ecosystem tropicalisation. Using satellite and in situ measures of temperature, salinity and current velocity coupled with contemporaneous measurements of pelagic biomass distribution from nine boat-based active acoustic surveys in five consecutive years, we investigated relationships between the physical environment and the distribution of pelagic biomass (zooplankton and fish) at multiple timescales. Survey periods were characterised by high variability in oceanographic conditions, with variation in coastal conditions influenced by meso-to-large scale processes occurring offshore, including the position and strength of eddies. Intra-annual variability was often of a similar or greater magnitude to inter-annual variability, suggesting highly dynamic conditions with important variation occurring at scales of days to weeks. Two seascape categories were identified being characterised by (A) warmer, less saline water and (B) cooler, more saline water, with the former indicating greater influence of the EAC on coastal processes. Warmer waters were also associated with fewer, deeper and less dense biological aggregations. As the EAC continues to warm and penetrate further south, it is likely that this will have substantial effects on biological activity in coastal pelagic ecosystems, including a potential reduction in the accessibility of prey aggregations to surface-feeding predators and to fisheries. These results highlight the import role of offshore oceanographic processes in driving coastal seascape variability and biological activity in a region undergoing rapid oceanic warming and ecological change.</p