Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND: Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. METHODS: We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. FINDINGS: Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, an

Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today’s gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990–2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030

Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Whole-genome sequencing reveals host factors underlying critical COVID-19

Critical COVID-19 is caused by immune-mediated inflammatory lung injury. Host genetic variation influences the development of illness requiring critical care1 or hospitalization2,3,4 after infection with SARS-CoV-2. The GenOMICC (Genetics of Mortality in Critical Care) study enables the comparison of genomes from individuals who are critically ill with those of population controls to find underlying disease mechanisms. Here we use whole-genome sequencing in 7,491 critically ill individuals compared with 48,400 controls to discover and replicate 23 independent variants that significantly predispose to critical COVID-19. We identify 16 new independent associations, including variants within genes that are involved in interferon signalling (IL10RB and PLSCR1), leucocyte differentiation (BCL11A) and blood-type antigen secretor status (FUT2). Using transcriptome-wide association and colocalization to infer the effect of gene expression on disease severity, we find evidence that implicates multiple genes—including reduced expression of a membrane flippase (ATP11A), and increased expression of a mucin (MUC1)—in critical disease. Mendelian randomization provides evidence in support of causal roles for myeloid cell adhesion molecules (SELE, ICAM5 and CD209) and the coagulation factor F8, all of which are potentially druggable targets. Our results are broadly consistent with a multi-component model of COVID-19 pathophysiology, in which at least two distinct mechanisms can predispose to life-threatening disease: failure to control viral replication; or an enhanced tendency towards pulmonary inflammation and intravascular coagulation. We show that comparison between cases of critical illness and population controls is highly efficient for the detection of therapeutically relevant mechanisms of disease

Generalizability of A Neural Network Model for Circadian Phase Prediction in Real-World Conditions

A neural network model was previously developed to predict melatonin rhythms accurately from blue light and skin temperature recordings in individuals on a fixed sleep schedule. This study aimed to test the generalizability of the model to other sleep schedules, including rotating shift work. Ambulatory wrist blue light irradiance and skin temperature data were collected in 16 healthy individuals on fixed and habitual sleep schedules, and 28 rotating shift workers. Artificial neural network models were trained to predict the circadian rhythm of (i) salivary melatonin on a fixed sleep schedule; (ii) urinary aMT6s on both fixed and habitual sleep schedules, including shift workers on a diurnal schedule; and (iii) urinary aMT6s in rotating shift workers on a night shift schedule. To determine predicted circadian phase, center of gravity of the fitted bimodal skewed baseline cosine curve was used for melatonin, and acrophase of the cosine curve for aMT6s. On a fixed sleep schedule, the model predicted melatonin phase to within ± 1 hour in 67% and ± 1.5 hours in 100% of participants, with mean absolute error of 41 ± 32 minutes. On diurnal schedules, including shift workers, the model predicted aMT6s acrophase to within ± 1 hour in 66% and ± 2 hours in 87% of participants, with mean absolute error of 63 ± 67 minutes. On night shift schedules, the model predicted aMT6s acrophase to within ± 1 hour in 42% and ± 2 hours in 53% of participants, with mean absolute error of 143 ± 155 minutes. Prediction accuracy was similar when using either 1 (wrist) or 11 skin temperature sensor inputs. These findings demonstrate that the model can predict circadian timing to within ± 2 hours for the vast majority of individuals on diurnal schedules, using blue light and a single temperature sensor. However, this approach did not generalize to night shift conditions

Mobile app for personalized sleep–wake management for shift workers: A user testing trial

Objective Development of personalized sleep–wake management tools is critical to improving sleep and functional outcomes for shift workers. The objective of the current study was to test the performance, engagement and usability of a mobile app ( SleepSync ) for personalized sleep–wake management in shift workers that aid behavioural change and provide practical advice by providing personalized sleep scheduling recommendations and education. Methods Shift workers ( n  = 27; 20 healthcare and 7 from other industries) trialled the mobile app for two weeks to determine performance, engagement and usability. Primary outcomes were self-reported total sleep time, ability to fall asleep, sleep quality and perception of overall recovery on days off. Secondary performance outcomes included sleep disturbances (insomnia and sleep hygiene symptoms, and sleep-related impairments) and mood (anxiety, stress and depression) pre- and post-app use. Satisfaction with schedule management, integration into daily routine and influence on behaviour were used to determine engagement, while the usability was assessed for functionality and ease of use of features. Results Total sleep time ( P  = .04), ability to fall asleep ( P  < .001), quality of sleep ( P  = .001), insomnia ( P  = .02), sleep hygiene ( P  = .01), sleep-related impairments ( P  = .001), anxiety ( P  = .001), and stress ( P  = .006) were all improved, with non-significant improvements in recovery on days off ( P  = .19) and depression ( P  = .07). All measures of engagement and usability were scored positively by the majority of users. Conclusions This pilot trial provides preliminary evidence of the positive impact of the SleepSync app in improving sleep and mood outcomes in shift workers, and warrants confirmation in a larger controlled trial

Using Mendelian Randomisation methods to understand whether diurnal preference is causally related to mental health

This is the final version. Available on open access from Springer Nature via the DOI in this record This research has been conducted using the UK Biobank resource under application number 9072.Late diurnal preference has been linked to poorer mental health outcomes, but the understanding of the causal role of diurnal preference on mental health and wellbeing is currently limited. Late diurnal preference is often associated with circadian misalignment (a mismatch between the timing of the endogenous circadian system and behavioural rhythms), so that evening people live more frequently against their internal clock. This study aims to quantify the causal contribution of diurnal preference on mental health outcomes, including anxiety, depression and general wellbeing and test the hypothesis that more misaligned individuals have poorer mental health and wellbeing using an actigraphy-based measure of circadian misalignment. Multiple Mendelian Randomisation (MR) approaches were used to test causal pathways between diurnal preference and seven well-validated mental health and wellbeing outcomes in up to 451,025 individuals. In addition, observational analyses tested the association between a novel, objective measure of behavioural misalignment (Composite Phase Deviation, CPD) and seven mental health and wellbeing outcomes. Using genetic instruments identified in the largest GWAS for diurnal preference, we provide robust evidence that early diurnal preference is protective for depression and improves wellbeing. For example, using one-sample MR, a twofold higher genetic liability of morningness was associated with lower odds of depressive symptoms (OR: 0.92, 95% CI: 0.88, 0.97). It is possible that behavioural factors including circadian misalignment may contribute in the chronotype depression relationship, but further work is needed to confirm these findings.Academy of Medical SciencesMedical Research Council (MRC)Diabetes UKWellcome TrustRoyal Societ