A new policy toolkit is needed as countries exit COVID-19 lockdowns. Bruegel Policy Contribution Issue n ̊12 | June 2020.

When it became clear that the COVID-19 pandemic required widespread lockdown of all but essential firms, most governments took measures to protect vulnerable workers and firms from the worst effects of the sudden drop in activity. These measures included unemploy- ment benefits, grants, transfers, loans at low rates and tax deferrals. Their nearly exclusive focus was protection. As lockdowns are lifted, as some of these measures come to an end, and as it becomes clear that some sectors will have to contract and others expand, the focus must progressively shift. As usual in the aftermath of a major shock, protection must be balanced with reallocation, taking into account changing prospects for sectors and firms. Incentives must be given to firms and workers to resume activity, and, when needed, to adjust. Debt inherited from the freeze must be restructured if unsustainable. But policymakers must also consider the consequences of heightened uncertainty about the course of the pandemic and the economy, and the large increase in the number of workers out of work. In other words, as governments in advanced economies move from freeze to exit, they must design measures that will limit the pain of adjustment. This Policy Contribution explores how such measures can be designed. Section 1 briefly describes the measures that were taken to accompany the lockdown, in particular in Europe and the United States. Section 2 presents the protection and reallocation architecture that should underlie the new measures, namely a combination of unemployment benefits to help workers, wage subsidies and partially guaranteed loans to help firms, and a process-light restructuring of legacy debts. Section 3 concludes

Tectonics of the Syros blueschists (Cyclades, Greece): From subduction to Aegean extension

On Syros, high‐pressure metamorphism affects a lithological pile that is composed of, from base to top: (1) the Komito‐Vari granitic basement, (2) a margin sedimentary sequence that is predominantly made of marbles and schists (the Pyrgos and Kastri units), and (3) the Kambos metaophiolitic mélange. The tectonic history occurred in three main stages. During the first stage, in the mid‐Eocene, the Kambos oceanic unit was thrust southward on top of the sedimentary pile. Top‐to‐the‐south‐southwest ductile senses of shear are synchronous with prograde high‐pressure metamorphism and associated with this thrusting event. The second stage corresponds to a top‐to‐the‐northeast ductile shear that affects the whole metamorphic pile and is synchronous with the metamorphic retrogression from eclogite to greenschist facies. However, the Kambos oceanic unit remained partly undeformed, as shown by significant volumes containing undeformed lawsonite pseudomorphs. No major extensional detachment related to this exhumation event outcrops on the island. The localized semibrittle to brittle deformation of the third stage is associated with the postmetamorphic development of (1) a ramp‐flat extensional system at the island scale, whose southward minimum displacement is estimated at approximately 7 km, and (2) two sets of steeply dipping strike‐slip faults with a normal component, trending either east–west or around north–south, indicating that the mean stretching and shortening directions are trending NNE–SSW and ESE–WNW, respectively. This sequence of major tectonic events and their relationship to metamorphism are interpreted within the framework of the subduction of the Pindos Ocean and then of the Adria continental passive margin

The interaction between Aegean back-arc extension and Anatolia escape since Middle Miocene

International audienceThe Aegean domain is a key area for understanding the processes of back-arc extension. Observed deformation pattern and present day kinematics result from the interaction between the southward retreat of the Hellenic trench and the westward escape of Anatolia. Lithosphere-scale analogue models were employed to display that the overall pattern of Aegean extension requires not only the combination of trench retreat and Anatolia escape since middle Miocene but also the presence of an inherited lithosphere-scale mechanical discontinuity: the Vardar Suture Zone (VSZ). The reactivation in dextral shear of the eastern branch of the VSZ accommodates both the trench retreat (NS stretching) and the westward escape of Anatolia (EW shortening) in the Cyclades area since middle Miocene. Additionally, our model shows that the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is a late structure in the evolution of the Aegean, initiated around 10 Ma after the onset of Anatolia escape. The displacement field at the surface of the model allows the identification of sub-domains, which result from strain partitioning instead of being "rigid microplates", directly comparable to the present-day displacement field (GPS) of the Aegean and western Anatolia. Our model provides a simple but powerful way to look at the dynamics of Aegean extension in two main stages. From middle Eocene to middle Miocene, extension was only driven by the southward retreat of the Hellenic trench at a rate lower than 1 cm*y− 1. Since middle Miocene, the combination of slab rollback with Anatolia westward escape resulted in a southwest direction of trench retreat, with an accelerating rate of up to 3 cm*y− 1

The two-stage aegean extension, from localized to distributed, a result of slab rollback acceleration

International audienceBack-arc extension in the Aegean, which was driven by slab rollback since 45 Ma, is described here for the first time in two stages. From Middle Eocene to Middle Miocene, deformation was localized leading to i) the exhumation of high-pressure metamorphic rocks to crustal depths, ii) the exhumation of high-temperature metamorphic rocks in core complexes and iii) the deposition of sedimentary basins. Since Middle Miocene, extension distributed over the whole Aegean domain controlled the deposition of onshore and offshore Neogene sedimentary basins. We reconstructed this two-stage evolution in 3D and four steps at Aegean scale by using available ages of metamorphic and sedimentary processes, geometry and kinematics of ductile deformation, paleomagnetic data and available tomographic models. The restoration model shows that the rate of trench retreat was around 0.6 cm/y during the first 30 My and then accelerated up to 3.2 cm/y during the last 15 My. The sharp transition observed in the mode of extension, localized versus distributed, in Middle Miocene correlates with the acceleration of trench retreat and is likely a consequence of the Hellenic slab tearing documented by mantle tomography. The development of large dextral NE-SW strike-slip faults, since Middle Miocene, is illustrated by the 450 Km-long fault zone, offshore from Myrthes to Ikaria and onshore from Izmir to Balikeshir, in western Anatolia. Therefore, the interaction between the Hellenic trench retreat and the westward displacement of Anatolia started in Middle Miocene, almost 10 Ma before the propagation of the North Anatolian Fault in the North Aegean

Comparative study of meningitis dynamics across nine African countries: a global perspective

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Meningococcal meningitis (MM) represents an important public health problem especially in the "meningitis belt" in Africa. Although seasonality of epidemics is well known with outbreaks usually starting in the dry season, pluri-annual cycles are still less understood and even studied. In this context, we aimed at study MM cases time series across 9 sahelo-sudanian countries to detect pluri-annual periodicity and determine or not synchrony between dynamics. This global and comparative approach allows a better understanding of MM evolution in time and space in the long-term.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We used the most adapted mathematical tool to time series analyses, the wavelet method. We showed that, despite a strong consensus on the existence of a global pluri-annual cycle of MM epidemics, it is not the case. Indeed, even if a clear cycle is detected in all countries, these cycles are not as permanent and regular as generally admitted since many years. Moreover, no global synchrony was detected although many countries seemed correlated.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These results of the first large-scale study of MM dynamics highlight the strong interest and the necessity of a global survey of MM in order to be able to predict and prevent large epidemics by adapted vaccination strategy. International cooperation in Public Health and cross-disciplines studies are highly recommended to hope controlling this infectious disease.</p

Paleomagnetic Rotations in the Northeastern Caribbean Region Reveal Major Intraplate Deformation Since the Eocene

Relative Caribbean-North American plate motion is partitioned over the trench and intra-Caribbean plate faults that bound large scale tectonic blocks. Quantifying the kinematic evolution of this tectonic corridor is challenging because much of the region is submarine. We present an extensive regional paleomagnetic data set (1,330 cores from 136 sampling locations) from Eocene and younger rocks of the northern Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, and use a statistical bootstrapping approach to quantify vertical axis block rotations. Our results show that the Puerto Rico–Virgin Island (PRVI) block and the Northern Lesser Antilles (NoLA) block formed two coherently rotating domains that both underwent at least 45° counterclockwise rotation since the Eocene. The first ∼20° occurred in tandem in late Eocene and Oligocene time, after which the blocks were separated in the Miocene by the opening of the Anegada Passage. The last 25° of rotation of the PRVI block ended in the middle Miocene, whereas the NoLA block rotated slower, until the latest Miocene. The boundary between the NoLA block and a non-rotated Southern Lesser Antilles was likely the Monserrat-Harvers fault zone. These results require hundreds of kilometers of intra-Caribbean motions with oroclinal bending of the trench or forearc sliver motion along the curved plate boundary as endmembers. These data invite a critical re-evaluation of the kinematic reconstruction of Caribbean-North American plate motion. The consequent changes in paleogeography may provide a new view on the enigmatic eastern Caribbean paleo-biogeography and the Paleogene dispersal of South American mammals toward the Greater Antilles

L’évaluation et l’étude des ensembles funéraires villageois : présentation d’études de cas du diocèse de Tours (Indre-et-Loire)

National audienceSi les occasions d’aborder extensivement les grands ensembles funéraires médiévaux sont rares, en revanche, près d’une quarantaine d'interventions ponctuelles autours des églises ont eu lieu depuis 2010 en Centre-Val-de-Loire. Nous proposons ici un premier bilan de leur intérêt et apports à partir d’une série d’études de cas choisies en Touraine

Relationship between QT interval and outcome in low-flow low-gradient aortic stenosis with low left ventricular ejection fraction

Background QT interval has been shown to be associated with cardiovascular events. There is no data regarding the association between QT interval and left ventricular (LV) function and prognosis in patients with low LV ejection fraction (LVEF), low‐flow, low‐gradient aortic stenosis (LF‐LG AS). We aimed to examine the relationship between corrected QT interval (QT c) and LV function and outcome in these patients. Methods and Results Ninety‐three patients (73±10 years; 74% men) with LF‐LG AS (mean gradient 450 ms in men and >470 ms in women. LV global longitudinal strain was measured by speckle tracking and expressed in absolute value |%|. QT c correlated with the following: global longitudinal strain (r=−0.40, P=0.005), LVEF (r=−0.27, P=0.02), stroke volume (r=−0.35, P=0.007), and B‐type natriuretic peptide (r=0.45, P=0.0006). During a median follow‐up of 2.0 years, 49 patients died. Prolonged QT c was associated with a 2‐fold increase in all‐cause mortality (hazard ratio=2.05; P=0.01) and cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratio=1.89; P=0.04). In multivariable analysis adjusted for EuroSCORE, aortic valve replacement, previous myocardial infarction, LVEF, and ß‐blocker medication, prolonged QT c was independently associated with all‐cause mortality (hazard ratio=2.56; P=0.008) and cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratio=2.50; P=0.02). Conclusions In patients with LF‐LG AS and reduced LVEF, longer QT c interval was associated with worse LV function and increased risk of death. Assessment of QT c may provide a simple and inexpensive tool to enhance risk stratification in LF‐LG AS patients