Live and Feeder Cattle Options Markets: Returns, Risk, and Volatility Forecasting

The paper examines empirical returns from holding thirty- and ninety-day call and put positions, and the forecasting performance of implied volatility in the live and feeder cattle options markets. In both markets, implied volatility is an upwardly biased and inefficient predictor of realized volatility, with bias most prominent in live cattle. While significant returns exist holding several market positions, most strategies are strongly affected by a drift in futures market prices. However, the returns from selling live cattle puts are persistent, and evidence from straddle returns identifies that the market overprices volatility. This overpricing is consistent with a short-term risk premium whose effect is magnified by extreme changes in market conditions.live cattle, feeder cattle, options, returns, risk, volatility forecasting, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Farm Management, Financial Economics, Livestock Production/Industries, Marketing, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

A multimodal imaging study of recognition memory in very preterm born adults

Very preterm (<32 weeks of gestation) birth is associated with structural brain alterationsand memory impairments throughout childhood and adolescence. Here, we used functional MRI(fMRI) to study the neuroanatomy of recognition memory in 49 very preterm-born adults and 50 con-trols (mean age: 30 years) during completion of a task involving visual encoding and recognition ofabstract pictures. T1-weighted and diffusion-weighted images were also collected. Bilateral hippocam-pal volumes were calculated and tractography of the fornix and cingulum was performed and assessedin terms of volume and hindrance modulated orientational anisotropy (HMOA). Online recognitionmemory task performance, assessed with A scores, was poorer in the very preterm compared with thecontrol group. Analysis of fMRI data focused on differences in neural activity between the recognitionand encoding trials. Very preterm born adults showed decreased activation in the right middle frontalgyrus and posterior cingulate cortex/precuneus and increased activation in the left inferior frontalgyrus and bilateral lateral occipital cortex (LOC) compared with controls. Hippocampi, fornix and cin-gulum volume was significantly smaller and fornix HMOA was lower in very preterm adults. Amongall the structural and functional brain metrics that showed statistically significant group differences,LOC activation was the best predictor of online task performance (P 5 0.020). In terms of associationbetween brain function and structure, LOC activation was predicted by fornix HMOA in the pretermgroup only (P 5 0.020). These results suggest that neuroanatomical alterations in very preterm bornindividuals may be underlying their poorer recognition memory performance

Phosphino-Triazole Ligands for Palladium-Catalyzed Cross-Coupling

Twelve 1,5-disubtituted and fourteen 5-substituted 1,2,3-triazole derivatives bearing diaryl or dialkyl phosphines at the 5-position were synthesized and used as ligands for palladium-catalyzed Suzuki–Miyaura cross-coupling reactions. Bulky substrates were tested, and lead-like product formation was demonstrated. The online tool SambVca2.0 was used to assess steric parameters of ligands and preliminary buried volume determination using XRD-obtained data in a small number of cases proved to be informative. Two modeling approaches were compared for the determination of the buried volume of ligands where XRD data was not available. An approach with imposed steric restrictions was found to be superior in leading to buried volume determinations that closely correlate with observed reaction conversions. The online tool LLAMA was used to determine lead-likeness of potential Suzuki–Miyaura cross-coupling products, from which 10 of the most lead-like were successfully synthesized. Thus, confirming these readily accessible triazole-containing phosphines as highly suitable ligands for reaction screening and optimization in drug discovery campaigns

Thermal Behavior of Benzoic Acid/Isonicotinamide Binary Cocrystals

YesA comprehensive study of the thermal behavior of the 1:1 and 2:1 benzoic acid/isonicotinamide cocrystals is reported. The 1:1 material shows a simple unit cell expansion followed by melting upon heating. The 2:1 crystal exhibits more complex behavior. Its unit cell first expands upon heating, as a result of C–H···π interactions being lengthened. It then is converted into the 1:1 crystal, as demonstrated by significant changes in its X-ray diffraction pattern. The loss of 1 equiv of benzoic acid is confirmed by thermogravimetric analysis–mass spectrometry. Hot stage microscopy confirms that, as intuitively expected, the transformation begins at the crystal surface. The temperature at which conversion occurs is highly dependent on the sample mass and geometry, being reduced when the sample is under a gas flow or has a greater exposed surface area but increased when the heating rate is elevated

Neurodevelopmental and psychosocial risk factors in serial killers and mass murderers

Multiple and serial murders are rare events that have a very profound societal impact. We have conducted a systematic review, following PRISMA guidelines, of both the peer reviewed literature and of journalistic and legal sources regarding mass and serial killings. Our findings tentatively indicate that these extreme forms of violence may be a result of a highly complex interaction of biological, psychological and sociological factors and that, potentially, a significant proportion of mass or serial killers may have had neurodevelopmental disorders such as autism spectrum disorder or head injury. Research into multiple and serial murders is in its infancy: there is a lack of rigorous studies and most of the literature is anecdotal and speculative. Specific future study of the potential role of neurodevelopmental disorders in multiple and serial murders is warranted and, due to the rarity of these events, innovative research techniques may be required

Increasing capacity for the treatment of common musculoskeletal problems: A non-inferiority RCT and economic analysis of corticosteroid injection for shoulder pain comparing a physiotherapist and orthopaedic surgeon

Background Role substitution is a strategy employed to assist health services manage the growing demand for musculoskeletal care. Corticosteroid injection is a common treatment in this population but the efficacy of its prescription and delivery by physiotherapists has not been established against orthopaedic standards. This paper investigates whether corticosteroid injection given by a physiotherapist for shoulder pain is as clinically and cost effective as that from an orthopaedic surgeon. Methods A double blind non-inferiority randomized controlled trial was conducted in an Australian public hospital orthopaedic outpatient service, from January 2013 to June 2014. Adults with a General Practitioner referral to Orthopaedics for shoulder pain received subacromial corticosteroid and local anaesthetic injection prescribed and delivered independently by a physiotherapist or a consultant orthopaedic surgeon. The main outcome measure was total Shoulder Pain and Disability Index (SPADI) score at baseline, six and 12 weeks, applying a non-inferiority margin of 15 points. Secondary outcomes tested for superiority included pain, shoulder movement, perceived improvement, adverse events, satisfaction, quality of life and costs. Results 278 participants were independently assessed by the physiotherapist and the orthopaedic surgeon, with 64 randomised (physiotherapist 33, orthopaedic surgeon 31). There were no significant differences in baseline characteristics between groups. Non-inferiority of injection by the physiotherapist was declared from total SPADI scores at 6 and 12 weeks (upper limit of the 95% one-sided confidence interval 13.34 and 7.17 at 6 and 12 weeks, respectively). There were no statistically significant differences between groups on any outcome measures at 6 or 12 weeks. From the perspective of the health funder, the physiotherapist was less expensive. Conclusions Corticosteroid injection for shoulder pain, provided by a suitably qualified physiotherapist is at least as clinically effective, and less expensive, compared with similar care delivered by an orthopaedic surgeon. Policy makers and service providers should consider implementing this model of care