Letters of Lieutenant John W. Phelps, U.S.A., 1837-1838

Lieut. John Walcott Phelps (Brig.-Gen., Vols. 1861) of Vermont, served in the Seminole War during 1837, 1838 and 1839. Following these, a score of letters will be published here written by Samuel Forry, Surgeon, U. S. A., to Lieut. Phelps from various forts in Florida during the campaigns of 1837 and 1838. The originals of both series are in the possession of John W. Phelps, of Northfield, Massachusetts, a son of General Phelps; who, through Mrs. Roy V. Ott, of Ocala, has given The Florida Historical Society copies and permission to publish them. A biographical sketch of Lieut. Phelps will appear in an early number of the Quarterly

Use of an Online Photo Management and Sharing Application to Create a Searchable Digital Dental Radiograph Repository

Problem: Dental radiographs generally display one or more findings/diagnoses, and are linked to a unique set of patient demographics, medical history and other findings not represented by the image. However, this information is not associated with radiographs in any type of meta format, and images are not searchable based on any clinical criteria (1,2). The purpose of this pilot study is to create an online, searchable data repository of dental radiographs to be used for patient care, teaching and research. [See PDF for complete abstract

The HST Key Project on the Extragalactic Distance Scale. XV. A Cepheid Distance to the Fornax Cluster and Its Implications

Using the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) 37 long-period Cepheid variables have been discovered in the Fornax Cluster spiral galaxy NGC 1365. The resulting V and I period-luminosity relations yield a true distance modulus of 31.35 +/- 0.07 mag, which corresponds to a distance of 18.6 +/- 0.6 Mpc. This measurement provides several routes for estimating the Hubble Constant. (1) Assuming this distance for the Fornax Cluster as a whole yields a local Hubble Constant of 70 +/-18_{random} [+/-7]_{systematic} km/s/Mpc. (2) Nine Cepheid-based distances to groups of galaxies out to and including the Fornax and Virgo clusters yield Ho = 73 (+/-16)_r [+/-7]_s km/s/Mpc. (3) Recalibrating the I-band Tully-Fisher relation using NGC 1365 and six nearby spiral galaxies, and applying it to 15 galaxy clusters out to 100 Mpc gives Ho = 76 (+/-3)_r [+/-8]_s km/s/Mpc. (4) Using a broad-based set of differential cluster distance moduli ranging from Fornax to Abell 2147 gives Ho = 72 (+/-)_r [+/-6]_s km/s/Mpc. And finally, (5) Assuming the NGC 1365 distance for the two additional Type Ia supernovae in Fornax and adding them to the SnIa calibration (correcting for light curve shape) gives Ho = 67 (+/-6)_r [+/-7]_s km/s/Mpc out to a distance in excess of 500 Mpc. All five of these Ho determinations agree to within their statistical errors. The resulting estimate of the Hubble Constant combining all these determinations is Ho = 72 (+/-5)_r [+/-12]_s km/s/Mpc.Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal, Apr. 10 issue 28 pages, 3 tables, 12 figures (Correct figures and abstract

Habitat Characteristics of Black Crappie Nest Sites in an Illinois Impoundment

Ten nest colonies of black crappie Pomoxis nigromaculatus were visually located and verified by angling in Campus Lake, a small urban impoundment in southern Illinois. Habitat characteristics were measured at these nest sites and compared to habitat measurements obtained from 45 unused sites. Seven habitat characteristics (substrate firmness, temperature, dissolved oxygen, distance to deep water [3.8-m depth contour], substrate type, vegetation height, and vegetation density) were significantly different between nest sites and unused sites. Although temperature and dissolved oxygen were significantly different between nest sites and unused sites, all values were within the suitable range for black crappie spawning to occur. Black crappies selected nest sites close to deep water with firm substrates and low vegetation height and density. Our results present insight on habitat characteristics of black crappie spawning locations in a small urban impoundment. Interestingly, we located several black crappie nesting colonies with more than 10 individual nests in close proximity to one another; colonial nesting by black crappies has not previously been reported in the literature. Furthermore, we suggest that degree of shoreline modification and other anthropogenic influences in and adjacent to Campus Lake did not affect black crappie nest site selection. Black crappie nest sites in Campus Lake were always located near deep water (3.8 m), in low-density, short vegetation, and on firm clay or sand substrate; because nest site selection can influence earlylife survival and recruitment of black crappie, the availability of these habitat characteristics may regulate black crappie population demographics in Campus Lake. Efforts to limit sediment inputs will be important for maintaining suitable black crappie spawning habitat in Campus Lake and other small impoundments

The Hubble Space Telescope Extragalactic Distance Scale Key Project. X. The Cepheid Distance to NGC 7331

The distance to NGC 7331 has been derived from Cepheid variables observed with HST/WFPC2, as part of the Extragalactic Distance Scale Key Project. Multi-epoch exposures in F555W (V) and F814W (I), with photometry derived independently from DoPHOT and DAOPHOT/ALLFRAME programs, were used to detect a total of 13 reliable Cepheids, with periods between 11 and 42 days. The relative distance moduli between NGC 7331 and the LMC, imply an extinction to NGC 7331 of A_V = 0.47+-0.15 mag, and an extinction-corrected distance modulus to NGC 7331 of 30.89+-0.14(random) mag, equivalent to a distance of 15.1 Mpc. There are additional systematic uncertainties in the distance modulus of +-0.12 mag due to the calibration of the Cepheid Period-Luminosity relation, and a systematic offset of +0.05+-0.04 mag if we applied the metallicity correction inferred from the M101 results of Kennicutt et al 1998.Comment: To be published in The Astrophysical Journal, 1998 July 1, v501 note: Figs 1 and 2 (JPEG files) and Fig 7 (multipage .eps file) need to be viewed/printed separatel

Evidence and Ideology in Macroeconomics: The Case of Investment Cycles

The paper reports the principal findings of a long term research project on the description and explanation of business cycles. The research strongly confirmed the older view that business cycles have large systematic components that take the form of investment cycles. These quasi-periodic movements can be represented as low order, stochastic, dynamic processes with complex eigenvalues. Specifically, there is a fixed investment cycle of about 8 years and an inventory cycle of about 4 years. Maximum entropy spectral analysis was employed for the description of the cycles and continuous time econometrics for the explanatory models. The central explanatory mechanism is the second order accelerator, which incorporates adjustment costs both in relation to the capital stock and the rate of investment. By means of parametric resonance it was possible to show, both theoretically and empirically how cycles aggregate from the micro to the macro level. The same mathematical tool was also used to explain the international convergence of cycles. I argue that the theory of investment cycles was abandoned for ideological, not for evidential reasons. Methodological issues are also discussed

The social value of a QALY : raising the bar or barring the raise?

Background: Since the inception of the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) in England, there have been questions about the empirical basis for the cost-per-QALY threshold used by NICE and whether QALYs gained by different beneficiaries of health care should be weighted equally. The Social Value of a QALY (SVQ) project, reported in this paper, was commissioned to address these two questions. The results of SVQ were released during a time of considerable debate about the NICE threshold, and authors with differing perspectives have drawn on the SVQ results to support their cases. As these discussions continue, and given the selective use of results by those involved, it is important, therefore, not only to present a summary overview of SVQ, but also for those who conducted the research to contribute to the debate as to its implications for NICE. Discussion: The issue of the threshold was addressed in two ways: first, by combining, via a set of models, the current UK Value of a Prevented Fatality (used in transport policy) with data on fatality age, life expectancy and age-related quality of life; and, second, via a survey designed to test the feasibility of combining respondents’ answers to willingness to pay and health state utility questions to arrive at values of a QALY. Modelling resulted in values of £10,000-£70,000 per QALY. Via survey research, most methods of aggregating the data resulted in values of a QALY of £18,000-£40,000, although others resulted in implausibly high values. An additional survey, addressing the issue of weighting QALYs, used two methods, one indicating that QALYs should not be weighted and the other that greater weight could be given to QALYs gained by some groups. Summary: Although we conducted only a feasibility study and a modelling exercise, neither present compelling evidence for moving the NICE threshold up or down. Some preliminary evidence would indicate it could be moved up for some types of QALY and down for others. While many members of the public appear to be open to the possibility of using somewhat different QALY weights for different groups of beneficiaries, we do not yet have any secure evidence base for introducing such a system