Feeder-trunk and direct-link schemes for public transit: a model to evaluate the produced accessibility

In a public transport network, a more intense integration between lines generally involves, on one hand, the reduction in the number of direct links, which forces users to perform more transfers, and on the other hand, the possibility of achieving a greater number of rides with the same whole mileage. Thus, the move towards feeder-trunk schemes produces both negative and positive effects on accessibility and on the quality of service perceived by users. That implies the need to evaluate accessibility realized on a territory by transit service patterns characterized by different levels of line integration. This research was focused on the development of an accessibility model able to estimate an equivalent travel time and to consider the discomfort resulting from possible transfers between vehicles and the benefits arising from available transit rides. As reported in this paper, the proposed model, that measures accessibility through an equivalent travel time, determines the latter as a function, in addition to the time spent inside the vehicle, also of the time and discomfort consequent to the transfers as well as of the number of supplied rides. With reference to the regional public transport, the values obtained by the calibration of the constants show how the waiting time has a weight for the user twice as much compared to the time spent on the vehicle, whilst the time required for the transfer has about a one and a half weight. Finally, the discomfort caused by each transfer is evaluated by the user as an increase to the overall travel time of about 3 and a half minutes. The calibrated model has been applied to a real case, in order to validate it and highlight benefits and limitations resulting from feeder-trunk supply patterns. The developed tool is useful in the design of a public transport service, especially in areas with weak demand, allowing to compare, in terms of produced accessibility, supply schemes with different levels of line integration, variable from direct-link type (also called point to point) to that feeder-trunk

Retrospective short-term forecasting experiment in Italy based on the occurrence of strong (fore) shocks

In a recent work, we computed the relative frequencies with which strong shocks (4.0 ≤ Mw < 5.0), widely felt by the population were followed in the same area by po- tentially destructive main shocks (Mw ≥ 5.0) in Italy. Assuming the stationarity of the seismic release properties, such frequencies can be tentatively used to estimate the probabilities of potentially destructive shocks after the occurrence of future strong shocks. This allows us to set up an alarm-based forecasting hypothesis related to strong foreshocks occurrence. Such hypothesis is tested retrospectively on the data of a homogenized seismic catalogue of the Italian area against a purely random hypothesis that simply forecasts the target main shocks proportionally to the space–time fraction occupied by the alarms. We compute the latter frac- tion in two ways (i) as the ratio between the average time covered by the alarms in each area and the total duration of the forecasting experiment (60 yr) and (ii) as the same ratio but weighted by the past frequency of occurrence of earthquakes in each area. In both cases the overall retrospective performance of our forecasting algorithm is definitely better than the random case. Considering an alarm duration of three months, the algorithm retrospectively forecasts more than 70 per cent of all shocks with Mw ≥ 5.5 occurred in Italy from 1960 to 2019 with a total space–time fraction covered by the alarms of the order of 2 per cent. Considering the same space–time coverage, the algorithm is also able to retrospectively forecasts more than 40 per cent of the first main shocks with Mw ≥ 5.5 of the seismic sequences occurred in the same time interval. Given the good reliability of our results, the forecasting algorithm is set and ready to be tested also prospectively, in parallel to other ongoing procedures operating on the Italian territory

Simultaneous Dependence of the Earthquake-Size Distribution on Faulting Style and Depth

We analyze two high-quality Southern Californian earthquake catalogues, one with focal mechanisms, to statistically model and test for dependencies of the earthquake-size distribution, the b values, on both faulting style and depth. In our null hypothesis, b is assumed constant. We then develop and calibrate one model based only on faulting style, another based only on depth dependence and two models that assume a simultaneous dependence on both parameters. We develop a new maximum-likelihood estimator corrected for the degrees of freedom to assess models' performances. Our results show that all models significantly reject the null hypothesis. The best performing is the one that simultaneously takes account of depth and faulting style. Our results suggest that differential stress variations in the Earth's crust systematically influence b values and that this variability should be considered for contemporary seismic hazard studies

Obsessive-Compulsive Aspects and Pathological Gambling in an Italian Sample

INTRODUCTION: Gambling behaviour appears as repetitive and difficult to resist and seems to be aimed at neutralizing or reducing negative feelings such as anxiety and tension, confirming its similarities with the obsessive-compulsive spectrum. Aims. Estimating the prevalence of gambling behaviour in an Italian sample and assessing the effects of sociodemographic variables and the correlations between gambling behaviour and obsessive-compulsive features. METHODS: A sample of 300 Italian subjects was evaluated based on gambling behaviours and obsessive-compulsive attitudes. The assessment was carried out in small centers in Italy, mainly in coffee and tobacco shops, where slot machines are located, using the South Oaks Gambling Screen (SOGS) and the MOCQ-R, a reduced form of Maudsley Obsessional-Compulsive Questionnaire. RESULTS: A negative correlation between SOGS and MOPQ-R, with reference to the control and cleaning subscales, was evidenced in the majority of the examined subjects. Both evaluating instruments showed reliability and a good discriminative capacity. CONCLUSIONS: Our study evidenced that the sample of gamblers we analysed did not belong to the obsessive-compulsive disorders area, supporting the validity of the model proposed by DSM-5 for the classification of PG. These data confirm the importance of investing in treatments similar to those used for substance use disorders

Seroprevalence of ehrlichia spp., anaplasma spp., borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato, and dirofilaria immitis in stray dogs, from 2016 to 2019, in southern Italy

Canine vector-borne diseases (CVBD) are an important and emerging health concern for humans and animals worldwide. The purpose of the presented study was to assess, from 2016 to 2019, the seroprevalence of CVBD agents and clarify the epidemiology of tick-borne disease in stray dogs living in the Campania Region, Southern Italy. For this purpose, blood samples were collected from January 2016 to December 2019 from 1023 dogs in authorized kennels located in the five municipalities of the Campania Region. SNAP® 4DX® from IDEXX® Laboratories was used for detection of Ehrlichia spp., Anaplasma spp., Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (s.l.), and Dirofilaria immitis antibodies. The overall seroprevalence of CVBD in stray dogs was 19.6% (95% Confidence Intervals (CI): 17.2–22.8%; 201/1023). The most common pathogen was Ehrlichia spp., with a percentage of positivity of 16.03%, followed by Anaplasma spp. with 7.8%. B. burgdorferi s.l. and D. immitis were detected in only 0.2% of dogs; co-infection was detected in 4.5% of stray dogs tested. No link was detected between the gender, age, location, and CVBD seropositivity, except for Ehrlichia spp. for which location (Avellino Province; p = 0.007) and gender (male, p = 0.002) were risk factors for seropositivity. Our results demonstrated that animals are exposed to at least one of the four etiological agents (Ehrlichia spp., Anaplasma spp. Borrelia burgdorferi s.l., and Dirofilaria immitis) transmitted by vectors. Finally, this study highlighted the utility of serological monitoring in stray dogs, housed in kennels, given the threat posed by CVBD to animals and the zoonotic implications of these etiological agents and their vectors on human health

Thelebolus microsporus mycelial mats in the trachea of wild brown skua (Catharacta antarctica Ionnbergi) and South Polar skua (C. maccormicki) carcasses

Sixteen brown skuas (Catharacta antarctica lonnbergi) and seven South Polar skuas (C. maccormicki) were found dead near Boekella Lake, Hope Bay, Antarctica, in February 1997. Postmortem examination revealed conspicuous caseous, deep yellow fungal/mycelial mats or cores in the trachea of nine of 19 carcasses that were examined. These mycelial cores, highly suggestive of aspergillomas, completely occluded the tracheal lumen in four of these nine carcasses. Thelebolus microsporus, a psychrophilic ascomycetous fungus commonly isolated from skua dung and skua nesting material, was isolated in pure culture from these tracheal plugs. Awareness of pseudolesions resulting from Thelebolus microsporus profuse postmortem growth in the trachea of dead skuas will minimize potential confusion with aspergillosis when investigating causes of epornithics in Antarctica.Facultad de Ciencias Veterinaria