23 research outputs found
Π ΠΎΠ·ΡΠΎΠ±ΠΊΠ° ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄Ρ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ Π²ΠΈΠΏΠ°Π΄ΠΊΠΎΠ²ΠΈΡ ΠΏΠΎΠ΄ΡΠΉ Ρ ΠΏΠ΅ΡΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΈ Π½Π΅ΡΡΠ°Π±ΡΠ»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡ
The object of research is random events in the formation of new economic and financial models; in particular; with cardinal changes in economic and social strategies. The scope and variety of methods used in the prediction of random processes is large. Promising mathematical apparatus for solving the problem are statistical methods of analysis. Today; there are many methods for predicting random processes; but most existing models are not suitable for predicting non-stationary processes. One of the most problematic places in forecasting time series is that there is no single methodology by which to analyze the characteristics of a non-stationary random process. Therefore; it is necessary to develop special methods of analysis that can be applied to individual cases of unsteady processes. The optimal solution to the problem may be the approximation of the time series by finely rational functions or the so-called PadΓ© approximation. Such an approach should take advantage of polynomial approximation. In polynomial approximation; polynomial canβt have horizontal asymptotes; which makes it impossible to make long-term forecasts. A rational approximation is guaranteed to tend to horizontal asymptotes; with all the poles of the finely rational function lying on the left side of the p-plane; that is; the Laplace transform plane. A method for predicting non-stationary time series with high accuracy of estimation and flexibility of settings is proposed. To ensure the stability of the method and the stability of the obtained results; it is proposed that the poles of the approximating function be introduced into the stability zone β the unit circle of the z-plane in compliance with the rules of conformal transformation. Namely; by transforming linear dimensions and preserving the angles between the orthogonal coordinates on infinitely small neighborhoods of the coordinate plane (the so-called conservatism of angles). It is shown that; subject to the conformity of the proposed transformation; the dynamic characteristics of the estimation and forecasting system are stored. This method can be especially successfully applied in the presence of non-stationarity of various natures.ΠΠ±ΡΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΎΠΌ ΠΈΡΡΠ»Π΅Π΄ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΠ²Π»ΡΡΡΡΡ ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΠΉΠ½ΡΠ΅ ΡΠΎΠ±ΡΡΠΈΡ ΠΏΡΠΈ ΡΠΎΡΠΌΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠΈ Π½ΠΎΠ²ΡΡ
ΡΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΡ
ΠΈ ΡΠΈΠ½Π°Π½ΡΠΎΠ²ΡΡ
ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Π΅ΠΉ, Π² ΡΠ°ΡΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ, ΠΏΡΠΈ ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ΄ΠΈΠ½Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΈΠ·ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π΅Π½ΠΈΡΡ
ΡΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ ΠΈ ΡΠΎΡΠΈΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΡΡΡΠ°ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΈΠΈ. ΠΠ±Π»Π°ΡΡΡ ΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ΅Π½Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΈ ΡΠ°Π·Π½ΠΎΠΎΠ±ΡΠ°Π·ΠΈΠ΅ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ², ΠΈΡΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΠ·ΡΠ΅ΠΌΡΡ
Π² Π·Π°Π΄Π°ΡΠ°Ρ
ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΠΉΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΎΠ², Π²Π΅Π»ΠΈΠΊΠ°. ΠΠ΅ΡΡΠΏΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΡΠΌ ΠΌΠ°ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΠΌ Π°ΠΏΠΏΠ°ΡΠ°ΡΠΎΠΌ ΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅ΠΌΡ ΡΠ²Π»ΡΡΡΡΡ ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΡΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΠ΅ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄Ρ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π°. ΠΠ° ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΎΠ΄Π½ΡΡΠ½ΠΈΠΉ Π΄Π΅Π½Ρ ΡΡΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ²ΡΠ΅Ρ ΠΌΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ² ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΠΉΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΎΠ², ΠΎΠ΄Π½Π°ΠΊΠΎ Π±ΠΎΠ»ΡΡΠΈΠ½ΡΡΠ²ΠΎ ΡΡΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ²ΡΡΡΠΈΡ
ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Π΅ΠΉ Π½Π΅ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ³ΠΎΠ΄Π½Ρ Π΄Π»Ρ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ Π½Π΅ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°ΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΎΠ². ΠΠ΄Π½ΠΈΠΌ ΠΈΠ· ΡΠ°ΠΌΡΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅ΠΌΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΌΠ΅ΡΡ Π² ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠΈ Π²ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΡΡ
ΡΡΠ΄ΠΎΠ² ΡΠ²Π»ΡΠ΅ΡΡΡ ΡΠΎ, ΡΡΠΎ Π΅Π΄ΠΈΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΠΈ, ΠΏΠΎ ΠΊΠΎΡΠΎΡΠΎΠΉ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ½ΠΎ Π±ΡΠ»ΠΎ Π±Ρ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°ΡΡ Ρ
Π°ΡΠ°ΠΊΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΡΡΠΈΠΊΠΈ Π½Π΅ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΠΉΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ°, Π½Π΅ ΡΡΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ²ΡΠ΅Ρ. ΠΠΎΡΡΠΎΠΌΡ Π½Π΅ΠΎΠ±Ρ
ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΠΌΠΎ ΡΠ°Π·ΡΠ°Π±Π°ΡΡΠ²Π°ΡΡ ΡΠΏΠ΅ΡΠΈΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠ΅ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄Ρ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π°, ΠΊΠΎΡΠΎΡΡΠ΅ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ½ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΡΡ ΠΊ ΠΎΡΠ΄Π΅Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠΌ ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΌ Π½Π΅ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°ΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΎΠ². ΠΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠΌ Π²Π°ΡΠΈΠ°Π½ΡΠΎΠΌ ΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅ΠΌΡ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ΅Ρ ΡΡΠ°ΡΡ Π°ΠΏΠΏΡΠΎΠΊΡΠΈΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΡ Π²ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΡΠ΄Π° ΠΌΠ΅Π»ΠΊΠΎ-ΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠΌΠΈ ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΠΈΡΠΌΠΈ ΠΈΠ»ΠΈ ΡΠ°ΠΊ Π½Π°Π·ΡΠ²Π°Π΅ΠΌΠ°Ρ Π°ΠΏΠΏΡΠΎΠΊΡΠΈΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΡ ΠΠ°Π΄Π΅. Π’Π°ΠΊΠΎΠΉ ΠΏΠΎΠ΄Ρ
ΠΎΠ΄ Π΄ΠΎΠ»ΠΆΠ΅Π½ ΠΈΠΌΠ΅ΡΡ ΠΏΡΠ΅ΠΈΠΌΡΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ²ΠΎ ΠΎΡ ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΠΈΠ½ΠΎΠΌΠΈΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ Π°ΠΏΠΏΡΠΎΠΊΡΠΈΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΠΈ. ΠΡΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΠΈΠ½ΠΎΠΌΠΈΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ Π°ΠΏΠΏΡΠΎΠΊΡΠΈΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΠ»Π΅Π½ΠΎΠΌ Π½Π΅ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ΅Ρ ΠΈΠΌΠ΅ΡΡ Π³ΠΎΡΠΈΠ·ΠΎΠ½ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ Π°ΡΠΈΠΌΠΏΡΠΎΡΡ, ΡΡΠΎ Π½Π΅ Π΄Π°Π΅Ρ Π²ΠΎΠ·ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ Π΄Π΅Π»Π°ΡΡ Π΄ΠΎΠ»Π³ΠΎΡΡΠΎΡΠ½ΡΠ΅ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·Ρ. Π Π°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°Π»ΡΠ½Π°Ρ Π°ΠΏΠΏΡΠΎΠΊΡΠΈΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΡ Π³Π°ΡΠ°Π½ΡΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π½ΠΎ ΡΡΡΠ΅ΠΌΠΈΡΡΡ ΠΊ Π³ΠΎΡΠΈΠ·ΠΎΠ½ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ Π°ΡΠΈΠΌΠΏΡΠΎΡΡ, ΠΏΡΠΈ ΡΡΠΎΠΌ Π²ΡΠ΅ ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΡΠ° ΠΌΠ΅Π»ΠΊΠΎ-ΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΠΈΠΈ Π΄ΠΎΠ»ΠΆΠ½Ρ Π»Π΅ΠΆΠ°ΡΡ Π² Π»Π΅Π²ΠΎΠΉ ΡΠ°ΡΡΠΈ p-ΠΏΠ»ΠΎΡΠΊΠΎΡΡΠΈ, ΡΠΎ Π΅ΡΡΡ ΠΏΠ»ΠΎΡΠΊΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΏΡΠ΅ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ°Π·ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΠ°ΠΏΠ»Π°ΡΠ°. ΠΡΠ΅Π΄Π»ΠΎΠΆΠ΅Π½ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ Π½Π΅ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°ΡΠ½ΡΡ
Π²ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΡΡ
ΡΡΠ΄ΠΎΠ² Ρ Π²ΡΡΠΎΠΊΠΎΠΉ ΡΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡΡ ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΊΠΈ ΠΈ Π³ΠΈΠ±ΠΊΠΎΡΡΡΡ Π½Π°ΡΡΡΠΎΠ΅ΠΊ. ΠΠ»Ρ ΠΎΠ±Π΅ΡΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΡΡΠΎΠΉΡΠΈΠ²ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄Π° ΠΈ ΡΡΠ°Π±ΠΈΠ»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΡΠ΅Π½Π½ΡΡ
ΡΠ΅Π·ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΎΠ² ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π»ΠΎΠΆΠ΅Π½ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΄ΠΈΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ΅ Π²Π²Π΅Π΄Π΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΡΠΎΠ² Π°ΠΏΠΏΡΠΎΠΊΡΠΈΠΌΠΈΡΡΡΡΠ΅ΠΉ ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΠΈΠΈ Π² Π·ΠΎΠ½Ρ ΡΡΡΠΎΠΉΡΠΈΠ²ΠΎΡΡΠΈ β Π΅Π΄ΠΈΠ½ΠΈΡΠ½ΡΡ ΠΎΠΊΡΡΠΆΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡ z-ΠΏΠ»ΠΎΡΠΊΠΎΡΡΠΈ Ρ ΡΠΎΠ±Π»ΡΠ΄Π΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ΠΌ ΠΏΡΠ°Π²ΠΈΠ» ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΡΠΎΡΠΌΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠ΅ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ°Π·ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ. Π ΠΈΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎ β ΡΡΠ°Π½ΡΡΠΎΡΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΠ΅ΠΉ Π»ΠΈΠ½Π΅ΠΉΠ½ΡΡ
ΡΠ°Π·ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ² ΠΈ Ρ ΡΠΎΡ
ΡΠ°Π½Π΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ΠΌ ΡΠ³Π»ΠΎΠ² ΠΌΠ΅ΠΆΠ΄Ρ ΠΎΡΡΠΎΠ³ΠΎΠ½Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠΌΠΈ ΠΊΠΎΠΎΡΠ΄ΠΈΠ½Π°ΡΠ°ΠΌΠΈ Π½Π° Π±Π΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠ½Π΅ΡΠ½ΠΎ ΠΌΠ°Π»ΡΡ
ΠΎΠΊΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡΡ
ΠΊΠΎΠΎΡΠ΄ΠΈΠ½Π°ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΏΠ»ΠΎΡΠΊΠΎΡΡΠΈ (ΡΠ°ΠΊ Π½Π°Π·ΡΠ²Π°Π΅ΠΌΡΠΉ ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΡΠ΅ΡΠ²Π°ΡΠΈΠ·ΠΌ ΡΠ³Π»ΠΎΠ²). ΠΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π°Π½ΠΎ, ΡΡΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΈ ΡΠΎΠ±Π»ΡΠ΄Π΅Π½ΠΈΠΈ ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΡΠΎΡΠΌΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π»ΠΎΠΆΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠ΅ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ°Π·ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ Ρ
ΡΠ°Π½ΡΡΡΡ Π΄ΠΈΠ½Π°ΠΌΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΠ΅ Ρ
Π°ΡΠ°ΠΊΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΡΡΠΈΠΊΠΈ ΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΠΌΡ ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΊΠΈ ΠΈ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ. ΠΡΠΎΡ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ ΠΎΡΠΎΠ±Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎ ΡΡΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ½ΠΎ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ΅Ρ ΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΡΡΡΡ ΠΏΡΠΈ Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΡΠΈΠΈ Π½Π΅ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΡΠ°ΠΌΠΎΠΉ ΡΠ°Π·Π»ΠΈΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΏΡΠΈΡΠΎΠ΄Ρ.ΠΠ±'ΡΠΊΡΠΎΠΌ Π΄ΠΎΡΠ»ΡΠ΄ΠΆΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ Ρ Π²ΠΈΠΏΠ°Π΄ΠΊΠΎΠ²Ρ ΠΏΠΎΠ΄ΡΡ ΠΏΡΠΈ ΡΠΎΡΠΌΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ Π½ΠΎΠ²ΠΈΡ
Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΡΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΡΠ° ΡΡΠ½Π°Π½ΡΠΎΠ²ΠΈΡ
ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Π΅ΠΉ, Π·ΠΎΠΊΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ°, ΠΏΡΠΈ ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ΄ΠΈΠ½Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
Π·ΠΌΡΠ½Π°Ρ
Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΡΡΠ½ΠΎΡ ΡΠ° ΡΠΎΡΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡ ΡΡΡΠ°ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠΉ. ΠΠ±Π»Π°ΡΡΡ Π·Π°ΡΡΠΎΡΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ ΡΠ° ΡΡΠ·Π½ΠΎΠΌΠ°Π½ΡΡΠ½ΡΡΡΡ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΡΠ², Π²ΠΈΠΊΠΎΡΠΈΡΡΠΎΠ²ΡΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ
Π² Π·Π°Π²Π΄Π°Π½Π½ΡΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ Π²ΠΈΠΏΠ°Π΄ΠΊΠΎΠ²ΠΈΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ², Π²Π΅Π»ΠΈΠΊΠ°. ΠΠ΅ΡΡΠΏΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΈΠΌ ΠΌΠ°ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΡΠ½ΠΈΠΌ Π°ΠΏΠ°ΡΠ°ΡΠΎΠΌ Π²ΠΈΡΡΡΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅ΠΌΠΈ Ρ ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΡΡΠΈΡΠ½Ρ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΈ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΡΠ·Ρ. ΠΠ° ΡΡΠΎΠ³ΠΎΠ΄Π½ΡΡΠ½ΡΠΉ Π΄Π΅Π½Ρ ΡΡΠ½ΡΡ Π±Π°Π³Π°ΡΠΎ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΡΠ² ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ Π²ΠΈΠΏΠ°Π΄ΠΊΠΎΠ²ΠΈΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ², ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ Π±ΡΠ»ΡΡΡΡΡΡ ΡΡΠ½ΡΡΡΠΈΡ
ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Π΅ΠΉ Π½Π΅ Ρ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ΄Π°ΡΠ½ΠΈΠΌΠΈ Π΄Π»Ρ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ Π½Π΅ΡΡΠ°ΡΡΠΎΠ½Π°ΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ². ΠΠ΄Π½ΠΈΠΌ Π· Π½Π°ΠΉΠ±ΡΠ»ΡΡ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅ΠΌΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΠΌΡΡΡΡ Π² ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ ΡΠ°ΡΠΎΠ²ΠΈΡ
ΡΡΠ΄ΡΠ² Ρ ΡΠ΅, ΡΠΎ ΡΠ΄ΠΈΠ½ΠΎΡ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΡΡ, Π·Π° ΡΠΊΠΎΡ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ½Π° Π±ΡΠ»ΠΎ Π± Π°Π½Π°Π»ΡΠ·ΡΠ²Π°ΡΠΈ Ρ
Π°ΡΠ°ΠΊΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΡΡΠΈΠΊΠΈ Π½Π΅ΡΡΠ°ΡΡΠΎΠ½Π°ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Π²ΠΈΠΏΠ°Π΄ΠΊΠΎΠ²ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡ, Π½Π΅ ΡΡΠ½ΡΡ. Π’ΠΎΠΌΡ Π½Π΅ΠΎΠ±Ρ
ΡΠ΄Π½ΠΎ ΡΠΎΠ·ΡΠΎΠ±Π»ΡΡΠΈ ΡΠΏΠ΅ΡΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½Ρ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΈ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΡΠ·Ρ, ΡΠΊΡ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ»ΠΈΠ²ΠΎ Π·Π°ΡΡΠΎΡΠΎΠ²ΡΠ²Π°ΡΠΈ Π΄ΠΎ ΠΎΠΊΡΠ΅ΠΌΠΈΡ
Π²ΠΈΠΏΠ°Π΄ΠΊΡΠ² Π½Π΅ΡΡΠ°ΡΡΠΎΠ½Π°ΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ². ΠΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΈΠΌ Π²Π°ΡΡΠ°Π½ΡΠΎΠΌ Π²ΠΈΡΡΡΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅ΠΌΠΈ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ΅ ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈ Π°ΠΏΡΠΎΠΊΡΠΈΠΌΠ°ΡΡΡ ΡΠ°ΡΠΎΠ²ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΡΠ΄Ρ Π΄ΡΡΠ±Π½ΠΎ-ΡΠ°ΡΡΠΎΠ½Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΈΠΌΠΈ ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΡΡΠΌΠΈ Π°Π±ΠΎ ΡΠ°ΠΊ Π·Π²Π°Π½Π° Π°ΠΏΡΠΎΠΊΡΠΈΠΌΠ°ΡΡΡ ΠΠ°Π΄Π΅. Π’Π°ΠΊΠΈΠΉ ΠΏΡΠ΄Ρ
ΡΠ΄ ΠΏΠΎΠ²ΠΈΠ½Π΅Π½ ΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈ ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π²Π°Π³Ρ Π²ΡΠ΄ ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΌΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡ Π°ΠΏΡΠΎΠΊΡΠΈΠΌΠ°ΡΡΡ. ΠΡΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΌΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠΉ Π°ΠΏΡΠΎΠΊΡΠΈΠΌΠ°ΡΡΡ ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΌ Π½Π΅ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ΅ ΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈ Π³ΠΎΡΠΈΠ·ΠΎΠ½ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡ Π°ΡΠΈΠΌΠΏΡΠΎΡΠΈ, ΡΠΎ Π½Π΅ Π΄Π°Ρ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ»ΠΈΠ²ΠΎΡΡΡ ΡΠΎΠ±ΠΈΡΠΈ Π΄ΠΎΠ²Π³ΠΎΡΡΡΠΎΠΊΠΎΠ²Ρ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΠΈ. Π Π°ΡΡΠΎΠ½Π°Π»ΡΠ½Π° Π°ΠΏΡΠΎΠΊΡΠΈΠΌΠ°ΡΡΡ Π³Π°ΡΠ°Π½ΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠ°Π³Π½Π΅ Π΄ΠΎ Π³ΠΎΡΠΈΠ·ΠΎΠ½ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡ Π°ΡΠΈΠΌΠΏΡΠΎΡΠΈ, ΠΏΡΠΈ ΡΡΠΎΠΌΡ ΡΡΡ ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΡΠΈ Π΄ΡΡΠ±Π½ΠΎ-ΡΠ°ΡΡΠΎΠ½Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡ ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΡΡ ΠΏΠΎΠ²ΠΈΠ½Π½Ρ Π»Π΅ΠΆΠ°ΡΠΈ Ρ Π»ΡΠ²ΡΠΉ ΡΠ°ΡΡΠΈΠ½Ρ p-ΠΏΠ»ΠΎΡΠΈΠ½ΠΈ, ΡΠΎΠ±ΡΠΎ ΠΏΠ»ΠΎΡΠΈΠ½ΠΈ ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅ΡΠ²ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ ΠΠ°ΠΏΠ»Π°ΡΠ°. ΠΠ°ΠΏΡΠΎΠΏΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΎ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ Π½Π΅ΡΡΠ°ΡΡΠΎΠ½Π°ΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΡΠ°ΡΠΎΠ²ΠΈΡ
ΡΡΠ΄ΡΠ² Π· Π²ΠΈΡΠΎΠΊΠΎΡ ΡΠΎΡΠ½ΡΡΡΡ ΠΎΡΡΠ½ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ ΡΠ° Π³Π½ΡΡΠΊΡΡΡΡ ΠΏΠ°ΡΠ°ΠΌΠ΅ΡΡΡΠ². ΠΠ»Ρ Π·Π°Π±Π΅Π·ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ ΡΡΡΠΉΠΊΠΎΡΡΡ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄Ρ ΡΠ° ΡΡΠ°Π±ΡΠ»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡ ΠΎΡΡΠΈΠΌΠ°Π½ΠΈΡ
ΡΠ΅Π·ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΡΡΠ² Π·Π°ΠΏΡΠΎΠΏΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΡΡΠΎΠ²Π΅ Π²Π²Π΅Π΄Π΅Π½Π½Ρ ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΡΡΠ² Π°ΠΏΡΠΎΠΊΡΠΈΠΌΡΡΡΠΎΡ ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΡΡ Π² Π·ΠΎΠ½Ρ ΡΡΡΠΉΠΊΠΎΡΡΡ β ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΠ½ΠΈΡΠ½Π΅ ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎ z-ΠΏΠ»ΠΎΡΠΈΠ½ΠΈ Π· Π΄ΠΎΡΡΠΈΠΌΠ°Π½Π½ΡΠΌ ΠΏΡΠ°Π²ΠΈΠ» ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΡΠΎΡΠΌΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅ΡΠ²ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ. Π ΡΠ°ΠΌΠ΅ β ΡΡΠ°Π½ΡΡΠΎΡΠΌΠ°ΡΡΡΡ Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠΉΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΡΠΎΠ·ΠΌΡΡΡΠ² ΡΠ° Π·Ρ Π·Π±Π΅ΡΠ΅ΠΆΠ΅Π½Π½ΡΠΌ ΠΊΡΡΡΠ² ΠΌΡΠΆ ΠΎΡΡΠΎΠ³ΠΎΠ½Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΈΠΌΠΈ ΠΊΠΎΠΎΡΠ΄ΠΈΠ½Π°ΡΠ°ΠΌΠΈ Π½Π° Π½Π΅ΡΠΊΡΠ½ΡΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎ ΠΌΠ°Π»ΠΈΡ
ΠΎΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΈΡΡΡ
ΠΊΠΎΠΎΡΠ΄ΠΈΠ½Π°ΡΠ½ΠΎΡ ΠΏΠ»ΠΎΡΠΈΠ½ΠΈ (ΡΠ°ΠΊ Π·Π²Π°Π½ΠΈΠΉ ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΡΠ΅ΡΠ²Π°ΡΠΈΠ·ΠΌ ΠΊΡΡΡΠ²). ΠΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π°Π½ΠΎ, ΡΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΈ Π΄ΠΎΡΡΠΈΠΌΠ°Π½Π½Ρ ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΡΠΎΡΠΌΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡ Π·Π°ΠΏΡΠΎΠΏΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅ΡΠ²ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ Π·Π±Π΅ΡΡΠ³Π°ΡΡΡΡΡ Π΄ΠΈΠ½Π°ΠΌΡΡΠ½Ρ Ρ
Π°ΡΠ°ΠΊΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΡΡΠΈΠΊΠΈ ΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΠΌΠΈ ΠΎΡΡΠ½ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ ΡΠ° ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ. Π¦Π΅ΠΉ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ ΠΎΡΠΎΠ±Π»ΠΈΠ²ΠΎ ΡΡΠΏΡΡΠ½ΠΎ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ΅ Π·Π°ΡΡΠΎΡΠΎΠ²ΡΠ²Π°ΡΠΈΡΡ ΠΏΡΠΈ Π½Π°ΡΠ²Π½ΠΎΡΡΡ Π½Π΅ΡΡΠ°ΡΡΠΎΠ½Π°ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠ΅ΠΉ ΡΠ°ΠΌΠΎΡ ΡΡΠ·Π½ΠΎΡ ΠΏΡΠΈΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΈ
Π ΠΎΠ·ΡΠΎΠ±ΠΊΠ° ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄Ρ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ Π²ΠΈΠΏΠ°Π΄ΠΊΠΎΠ²ΠΈΡ ΠΏΠΎΠ΄ΡΠΉ Ρ ΠΏΠ΅ΡΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΈ Π½Π΅ΡΡΠ°Π±ΡΠ»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡ
The object of research is random events in the formation of new economic and financial models; in particular; with cardinal changes in economic and social strategies. The scope and variety of methods used in the prediction of random processes is large. Promising mathematical apparatus for solving the problem are statistical methods of analysis. Today; there are many methods for predicting random processes; but most existing models are not suitable for predicting non-stationary processes. One of the most problematic places in forecasting time series is that there is no single methodology by which to analyze the characteristics of a non-stationary random process. Therefore; it is necessary to develop special methods of analysis that can be applied to individual cases of unsteady processes. The optimal solution to the problem may be the approximation of the time series by finely rational functions or the so-called PadΓ© approximation. Such an approach should take advantage of polynomial approximation. In polynomial approximation; polynomial canβt have horizontal asymptotes; which makes it impossible to make long-term forecasts. A rational approximation is guaranteed to tend to horizontal asymptotes; with all the poles of the finely rational function lying on the left side of the p-plane; that is; the Laplace transform plane. A method for predicting non-stationary time series with high accuracy of estimation and flexibility of settings is proposed. To ensure the stability of the method and the stability of the obtained results; it is proposed that the poles of the approximating function be introduced into the stability zone β the unit circle of the z-plane in compliance with the rules of conformal transformation. Namely; by transforming linear dimensions and preserving the angles between the orthogonal coordinates on infinitely small neighborhoods of the coordinate plane (the so-called conservatism of angles). It is shown that; subject to the conformity of the proposed transformation; the dynamic characteristics of the estimation and forecasting system are stored. This method can be especially successfully applied in the presence of non-stationarity of various natures.ΠΠ±ΡΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΎΠΌ ΠΈΡΡΠ»Π΅Π΄ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΠ²Π»ΡΡΡΡΡ ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΠΉΠ½ΡΠ΅ ΡΠΎΠ±ΡΡΠΈΡ ΠΏΡΠΈ ΡΠΎΡΠΌΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠΈ Π½ΠΎΠ²ΡΡ
ΡΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΡ
ΠΈ ΡΠΈΠ½Π°Π½ΡΠΎΠ²ΡΡ
ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Π΅ΠΉ, Π² ΡΠ°ΡΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ, ΠΏΡΠΈ ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ΄ΠΈΠ½Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΈΠ·ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π΅Π½ΠΈΡΡ
ΡΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ ΠΈ ΡΠΎΡΠΈΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΡΡΡΠ°ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΈΠΈ. ΠΠ±Π»Π°ΡΡΡ ΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ΅Π½Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΈ ΡΠ°Π·Π½ΠΎΠΎΠ±ΡΠ°Π·ΠΈΠ΅ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ², ΠΈΡΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΠ·ΡΠ΅ΠΌΡΡ
Π² Π·Π°Π΄Π°ΡΠ°Ρ
ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΠΉΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΎΠ², Π²Π΅Π»ΠΈΠΊΠ°. ΠΠ΅ΡΡΠΏΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΡΠΌ ΠΌΠ°ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΠΌ Π°ΠΏΠΏΠ°ΡΠ°ΡΠΎΠΌ ΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅ΠΌΡ ΡΠ²Π»ΡΡΡΡΡ ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΡΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΠ΅ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄Ρ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π°. ΠΠ° ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΎΠ΄Π½ΡΡΠ½ΠΈΠΉ Π΄Π΅Π½Ρ ΡΡΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ²ΡΠ΅Ρ ΠΌΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ² ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΠΉΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΎΠ², ΠΎΠ΄Π½Π°ΠΊΠΎ Π±ΠΎΠ»ΡΡΠΈΠ½ΡΡΠ²ΠΎ ΡΡΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ²ΡΡΡΠΈΡ
ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Π΅ΠΉ Π½Π΅ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ³ΠΎΠ΄Π½Ρ Π΄Π»Ρ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ Π½Π΅ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°ΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΎΠ². ΠΠ΄Π½ΠΈΠΌ ΠΈΠ· ΡΠ°ΠΌΡΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅ΠΌΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΌΠ΅ΡΡ Π² ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠΈ Π²ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΡΡ
ΡΡΠ΄ΠΎΠ² ΡΠ²Π»ΡΠ΅ΡΡΡ ΡΠΎ, ΡΡΠΎ Π΅Π΄ΠΈΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΠΈ, ΠΏΠΎ ΠΊΠΎΡΠΎΡΠΎΠΉ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ½ΠΎ Π±ΡΠ»ΠΎ Π±Ρ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°ΡΡ Ρ
Π°ΡΠ°ΠΊΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΡΡΠΈΠΊΠΈ Π½Π΅ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΠΉΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ°, Π½Π΅ ΡΡΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ²ΡΠ΅Ρ. ΠΠΎΡΡΠΎΠΌΡ Π½Π΅ΠΎΠ±Ρ
ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΠΌΠΎ ΡΠ°Π·ΡΠ°Π±Π°ΡΡΠ²Π°ΡΡ ΡΠΏΠ΅ΡΠΈΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠ΅ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄Ρ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π°, ΠΊΠΎΡΠΎΡΡΠ΅ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ½ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΡΡ ΠΊ ΠΎΡΠ΄Π΅Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠΌ ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΌ Π½Π΅ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°ΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΎΠ². ΠΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠΌ Π²Π°ΡΠΈΠ°Π½ΡΠΎΠΌ ΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅ΠΌΡ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ΅Ρ ΡΡΠ°ΡΡ Π°ΠΏΠΏΡΠΎΠΊΡΠΈΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΡ Π²ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΡΠ΄Π° ΠΌΠ΅Π»ΠΊΠΎ-ΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠΌΠΈ ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΠΈΡΠΌΠΈ ΠΈΠ»ΠΈ ΡΠ°ΠΊ Π½Π°Π·ΡΠ²Π°Π΅ΠΌΠ°Ρ Π°ΠΏΠΏΡΠΎΠΊΡΠΈΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΡ ΠΠ°Π΄Π΅. Π’Π°ΠΊΠΎΠΉ ΠΏΠΎΠ΄Ρ
ΠΎΠ΄ Π΄ΠΎΠ»ΠΆΠ΅Π½ ΠΈΠΌΠ΅ΡΡ ΠΏΡΠ΅ΠΈΠΌΡΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ²ΠΎ ΠΎΡ ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΠΈΠ½ΠΎΠΌΠΈΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ Π°ΠΏΠΏΡΠΎΠΊΡΠΈΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΠΈ. ΠΡΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΠΈΠ½ΠΎΠΌΠΈΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ Π°ΠΏΠΏΡΠΎΠΊΡΠΈΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΠ»Π΅Π½ΠΎΠΌ Π½Π΅ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ΅Ρ ΠΈΠΌΠ΅ΡΡ Π³ΠΎΡΠΈΠ·ΠΎΠ½ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ Π°ΡΠΈΠΌΠΏΡΠΎΡΡ, ΡΡΠΎ Π½Π΅ Π΄Π°Π΅Ρ Π²ΠΎΠ·ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ Π΄Π΅Π»Π°ΡΡ Π΄ΠΎΠ»Π³ΠΎΡΡΠΎΡΠ½ΡΠ΅ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·Ρ. Π Π°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°Π»ΡΠ½Π°Ρ Π°ΠΏΠΏΡΠΎΠΊΡΠΈΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΡ Π³Π°ΡΠ°Π½ΡΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π½ΠΎ ΡΡΡΠ΅ΠΌΠΈΡΡΡ ΠΊ Π³ΠΎΡΠΈΠ·ΠΎΠ½ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ Π°ΡΠΈΠΌΠΏΡΠΎΡΡ, ΠΏΡΠΈ ΡΡΠΎΠΌ Π²ΡΠ΅ ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΡΠ° ΠΌΠ΅Π»ΠΊΠΎ-ΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΠΈΠΈ Π΄ΠΎΠ»ΠΆΠ½Ρ Π»Π΅ΠΆΠ°ΡΡ Π² Π»Π΅Π²ΠΎΠΉ ΡΠ°ΡΡΠΈ p-ΠΏΠ»ΠΎΡΠΊΠΎΡΡΠΈ, ΡΠΎ Π΅ΡΡΡ ΠΏΠ»ΠΎΡΠΊΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΏΡΠ΅ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ°Π·ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΠ°ΠΏΠ»Π°ΡΠ°. ΠΡΠ΅Π΄Π»ΠΎΠΆΠ΅Π½ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ Π½Π΅ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°ΡΠ½ΡΡ
Π²ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΡΡ
ΡΡΠ΄ΠΎΠ² Ρ Π²ΡΡΠΎΠΊΠΎΠΉ ΡΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡΡ ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΊΠΈ ΠΈ Π³ΠΈΠ±ΠΊΠΎΡΡΡΡ Π½Π°ΡΡΡΠΎΠ΅ΠΊ. ΠΠ»Ρ ΠΎΠ±Π΅ΡΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΡΡΠΎΠΉΡΠΈΠ²ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄Π° ΠΈ ΡΡΠ°Π±ΠΈΠ»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΡΠ΅Π½Π½ΡΡ
ΡΠ΅Π·ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΎΠ² ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π»ΠΎΠΆΠ΅Π½ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΄ΠΈΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ΅ Π²Π²Π΅Π΄Π΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΡΠΎΠ² Π°ΠΏΠΏΡΠΎΠΊΡΠΈΠΌΠΈΡΡΡΡΠ΅ΠΉ ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΠΈΠΈ Π² Π·ΠΎΠ½Ρ ΡΡΡΠΎΠΉΡΠΈΠ²ΠΎΡΡΠΈ β Π΅Π΄ΠΈΠ½ΠΈΡΠ½ΡΡ ΠΎΠΊΡΡΠΆΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡ z-ΠΏΠ»ΠΎΡΠΊΠΎΡΡΠΈ Ρ ΡΠΎΠ±Π»ΡΠ΄Π΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ΠΌ ΠΏΡΠ°Π²ΠΈΠ» ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΡΠΎΡΠΌΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠ΅ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ°Π·ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ. Π ΠΈΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎ β ΡΡΠ°Π½ΡΡΠΎΡΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΠ΅ΠΉ Π»ΠΈΠ½Π΅ΠΉΠ½ΡΡ
ΡΠ°Π·ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ² ΠΈ Ρ ΡΠΎΡ
ΡΠ°Π½Π΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ΠΌ ΡΠ³Π»ΠΎΠ² ΠΌΠ΅ΠΆΠ΄Ρ ΠΎΡΡΠΎΠ³ΠΎΠ½Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠΌΠΈ ΠΊΠΎΠΎΡΠ΄ΠΈΠ½Π°ΡΠ°ΠΌΠΈ Π½Π° Π±Π΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠ½Π΅ΡΠ½ΠΎ ΠΌΠ°Π»ΡΡ
ΠΎΠΊΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡΡ
ΠΊΠΎΠΎΡΠ΄ΠΈΠ½Π°ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΏΠ»ΠΎΡΠΊΠΎΡΡΠΈ (ΡΠ°ΠΊ Π½Π°Π·ΡΠ²Π°Π΅ΠΌΡΠΉ ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΡΠ΅ΡΠ²Π°ΡΠΈΠ·ΠΌ ΡΠ³Π»ΠΎΠ²). ΠΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π°Π½ΠΎ, ΡΡΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΈ ΡΠΎΠ±Π»ΡΠ΄Π΅Π½ΠΈΠΈ ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΡΠΎΡΠΌΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π»ΠΎΠΆΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠ΅ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ°Π·ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ Ρ
ΡΠ°Π½ΡΡΡΡ Π΄ΠΈΠ½Π°ΠΌΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΠ΅ Ρ
Π°ΡΠ°ΠΊΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΡΡΠΈΠΊΠΈ ΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΠΌΡ ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΊΠΈ ΠΈ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ. ΠΡΠΎΡ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ ΠΎΡΠΎΠ±Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎ ΡΡΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ½ΠΎ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ΅Ρ ΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΡΡΡΡ ΠΏΡΠΈ Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΡΠΈΠΈ Π½Π΅ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΡΠ°ΠΌΠΎΠΉ ΡΠ°Π·Π»ΠΈΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΏΡΠΈΡΠΎΠ΄Ρ.ΠΠ±'ΡΠΊΡΠΎΠΌ Π΄ΠΎΡΠ»ΡΠ΄ΠΆΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ Ρ Π²ΠΈΠΏΠ°Π΄ΠΊΠΎΠ²Ρ ΠΏΠΎΠ΄ΡΡ ΠΏΡΠΈ ΡΠΎΡΠΌΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ Π½ΠΎΠ²ΠΈΡ
Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΡΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΡΠ° ΡΡΠ½Π°Π½ΡΠΎΠ²ΠΈΡ
ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Π΅ΠΉ, Π·ΠΎΠΊΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ°, ΠΏΡΠΈ ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ΄ΠΈΠ½Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
Π·ΠΌΡΠ½Π°Ρ
Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΡΡΠ½ΠΎΡ ΡΠ° ΡΠΎΡΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡ ΡΡΡΠ°ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠΉ. ΠΠ±Π»Π°ΡΡΡ Π·Π°ΡΡΠΎΡΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ ΡΠ° ΡΡΠ·Π½ΠΎΠΌΠ°Π½ΡΡΠ½ΡΡΡΡ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΡΠ², Π²ΠΈΠΊΠΎΡΠΈΡΡΠΎΠ²ΡΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ
Π² Π·Π°Π²Π΄Π°Π½Π½ΡΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ Π²ΠΈΠΏΠ°Π΄ΠΊΠΎΠ²ΠΈΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ², Π²Π΅Π»ΠΈΠΊΠ°. ΠΠ΅ΡΡΠΏΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΈΠΌ ΠΌΠ°ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΡΠ½ΠΈΠΌ Π°ΠΏΠ°ΡΠ°ΡΠΎΠΌ Π²ΠΈΡΡΡΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅ΠΌΠΈ Ρ ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΡΡΠΈΡΠ½Ρ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΈ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΡΠ·Ρ. ΠΠ° ΡΡΠΎΠ³ΠΎΠ΄Π½ΡΡΠ½ΡΠΉ Π΄Π΅Π½Ρ ΡΡΠ½ΡΡ Π±Π°Π³Π°ΡΠΎ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΡΠ² ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ Π²ΠΈΠΏΠ°Π΄ΠΊΠΎΠ²ΠΈΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ², ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ Π±ΡΠ»ΡΡΡΡΡΡ ΡΡΠ½ΡΡΡΠΈΡ
ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»Π΅ΠΉ Π½Π΅ Ρ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ΄Π°ΡΠ½ΠΈΠΌΠΈ Π΄Π»Ρ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ Π½Π΅ΡΡΠ°ΡΡΠΎΠ½Π°ΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ². ΠΠ΄Π½ΠΈΠΌ Π· Π½Π°ΠΉΠ±ΡΠ»ΡΡ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅ΠΌΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΠΌΡΡΡΡ Π² ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ ΡΠ°ΡΠΎΠ²ΠΈΡ
ΡΡΠ΄ΡΠ² Ρ ΡΠ΅, ΡΠΎ ΡΠ΄ΠΈΠ½ΠΎΡ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΡΡ, Π·Π° ΡΠΊΠΎΡ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ½Π° Π±ΡΠ»ΠΎ Π± Π°Π½Π°Π»ΡΠ·ΡΠ²Π°ΡΠΈ Ρ
Π°ΡΠ°ΠΊΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΡΡΠΈΠΊΠΈ Π½Π΅ΡΡΠ°ΡΡΠΎΠ½Π°ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Π²ΠΈΠΏΠ°Π΄ΠΊΠΎΠ²ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡ, Π½Π΅ ΡΡΠ½ΡΡ. Π’ΠΎΠΌΡ Π½Π΅ΠΎΠ±Ρ
ΡΠ΄Π½ΠΎ ΡΠΎΠ·ΡΠΎΠ±Π»ΡΡΠΈ ΡΠΏΠ΅ΡΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½Ρ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΈ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΡΠ·Ρ, ΡΠΊΡ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ»ΠΈΠ²ΠΎ Π·Π°ΡΡΠΎΡΠΎΠ²ΡΠ²Π°ΡΠΈ Π΄ΠΎ ΠΎΠΊΡΠ΅ΠΌΠΈΡ
Π²ΠΈΠΏΠ°Π΄ΠΊΡΠ² Π½Π΅ΡΡΠ°ΡΡΠΎΠ½Π°ΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ². ΠΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΈΠΌ Π²Π°ΡΡΠ°Π½ΡΠΎΠΌ Π²ΠΈΡΡΡΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅ΠΌΠΈ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ΅ ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈ Π°ΠΏΡΠΎΠΊΡΠΈΠΌΠ°ΡΡΡ ΡΠ°ΡΠΎΠ²ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΡΠ΄Ρ Π΄ΡΡΠ±Π½ΠΎ-ΡΠ°ΡΡΠΎΠ½Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΈΠΌΠΈ ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΡΡΠΌΠΈ Π°Π±ΠΎ ΡΠ°ΠΊ Π·Π²Π°Π½Π° Π°ΠΏΡΠΎΠΊΡΠΈΠΌΠ°ΡΡΡ ΠΠ°Π΄Π΅. Π’Π°ΠΊΠΈΠΉ ΠΏΡΠ΄Ρ
ΡΠ΄ ΠΏΠΎΠ²ΠΈΠ½Π΅Π½ ΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈ ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π²Π°Π³Ρ Π²ΡΠ΄ ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΌΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡ Π°ΠΏΡΠΎΠΊΡΠΈΠΌΠ°ΡΡΡ. ΠΡΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΌΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠΉ Π°ΠΏΡΠΎΠΊΡΠΈΠΌΠ°ΡΡΡ ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΌ Π½Π΅ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ΅ ΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈ Π³ΠΎΡΠΈΠ·ΠΎΠ½ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡ Π°ΡΠΈΠΌΠΏΡΠΎΡΠΈ, ΡΠΎ Π½Π΅ Π΄Π°Ρ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ»ΠΈΠ²ΠΎΡΡΡ ΡΠΎΠ±ΠΈΡΠΈ Π΄ΠΎΠ²Π³ΠΎΡΡΡΠΎΠΊΠΎΠ²Ρ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΠΈ. Π Π°ΡΡΠΎΠ½Π°Π»ΡΠ½Π° Π°ΠΏΡΠΎΠΊΡΠΈΠΌΠ°ΡΡΡ Π³Π°ΡΠ°Π½ΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠ°Π³Π½Π΅ Π΄ΠΎ Π³ΠΎΡΠΈΠ·ΠΎΠ½ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡ Π°ΡΠΈΠΌΠΏΡΠΎΡΠΈ, ΠΏΡΠΈ ΡΡΠΎΠΌΡ ΡΡΡ ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΡΠΈ Π΄ΡΡΠ±Π½ΠΎ-ΡΠ°ΡΡΠΎΠ½Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡ ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΡΡ ΠΏΠΎΠ²ΠΈΠ½Π½Ρ Π»Π΅ΠΆΠ°ΡΠΈ Ρ Π»ΡΠ²ΡΠΉ ΡΠ°ΡΡΠΈΠ½Ρ p-ΠΏΠ»ΠΎΡΠΈΠ½ΠΈ, ΡΠΎΠ±ΡΠΎ ΠΏΠ»ΠΎΡΠΈΠ½ΠΈ ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅ΡΠ²ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ ΠΠ°ΠΏΠ»Π°ΡΠ°. ΠΠ°ΠΏΡΠΎΠΏΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΎ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ Π½Π΅ΡΡΠ°ΡΡΠΎΠ½Π°ΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΡΠ°ΡΠΎΠ²ΠΈΡ
ΡΡΠ΄ΡΠ² Π· Π²ΠΈΡΠΎΠΊΠΎΡ ΡΠΎΡΠ½ΡΡΡΡ ΠΎΡΡΠ½ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ ΡΠ° Π³Π½ΡΡΠΊΡΡΡΡ ΠΏΠ°ΡΠ°ΠΌΠ΅ΡΡΡΠ². ΠΠ»Ρ Π·Π°Π±Π΅Π·ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ ΡΡΡΠΉΠΊΠΎΡΡΡ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄Ρ ΡΠ° ΡΡΠ°Π±ΡΠ»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡ ΠΎΡΡΠΈΠΌΠ°Π½ΠΈΡ
ΡΠ΅Π·ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΡΡΠ² Π·Π°ΠΏΡΠΎΠΏΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΡΡΠΎΠ²Π΅ Π²Π²Π΅Π΄Π΅Π½Π½Ρ ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΡΡΠ² Π°ΠΏΡΠΎΠΊΡΠΈΠΌΡΡΡΠΎΡ ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΡΡ Π² Π·ΠΎΠ½Ρ ΡΡΡΠΉΠΊΠΎΡΡΡ β ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΠ½ΠΈΡΠ½Π΅ ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎ z-ΠΏΠ»ΠΎΡΠΈΠ½ΠΈ Π· Π΄ΠΎΡΡΠΈΠΌΠ°Π½Π½ΡΠΌ ΠΏΡΠ°Π²ΠΈΠ» ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΡΠΎΡΠΌΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅ΡΠ²ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ. Π ΡΠ°ΠΌΠ΅ β ΡΡΠ°Π½ΡΡΠΎΡΠΌΠ°ΡΡΡΡ Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠΉΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΡΠΎΠ·ΠΌΡΡΡΠ² ΡΠ° Π·Ρ Π·Π±Π΅ΡΠ΅ΠΆΠ΅Π½Π½ΡΠΌ ΠΊΡΡΡΠ² ΠΌΡΠΆ ΠΎΡΡΠΎΠ³ΠΎΠ½Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΈΠΌΠΈ ΠΊΠΎΠΎΡΠ΄ΠΈΠ½Π°ΡΠ°ΠΌΠΈ Π½Π° Π½Π΅ΡΠΊΡΠ½ΡΠ΅Π½Π½ΠΎ ΠΌΠ°Π»ΠΈΡ
ΠΎΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΈΡΡΡ
ΠΊΠΎΠΎΡΠ΄ΠΈΠ½Π°ΡΠ½ΠΎΡ ΠΏΠ»ΠΎΡΠΈΠ½ΠΈ (ΡΠ°ΠΊ Π·Π²Π°Π½ΠΈΠΉ ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΡΠ΅ΡΠ²Π°ΡΠΈΠ·ΠΌ ΠΊΡΡΡΠ²). ΠΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π°Π½ΠΎ, ΡΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΈ Π΄ΠΎΡΡΠΈΠΌΠ°Π½Π½Ρ ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΡΠΎΡΠΌΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡ Π·Π°ΠΏΡΠΎΠΏΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅ΡΠ²ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ Π·Π±Π΅ΡΡΠ³Π°ΡΡΡΡΡ Π΄ΠΈΠ½Π°ΠΌΡΡΠ½Ρ Ρ
Π°ΡΠ°ΠΊΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΡΡΠΈΠΊΠΈ ΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΠΌΠΈ ΠΎΡΡΠ½ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ ΡΠ° ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ. Π¦Π΅ΠΉ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ ΠΎΡΠΎΠ±Π»ΠΈΠ²ΠΎ ΡΡΠΏΡΡΠ½ΠΎ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ΅ Π·Π°ΡΡΠΎΡΠΎΠ²ΡΠ²Π°ΡΠΈΡΡ ΠΏΡΠΈ Π½Π°ΡΠ²Π½ΠΎΡΡΡ Π½Π΅ΡΡΠ°ΡΡΠΎΠ½Π°ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠ΅ΠΉ ΡΠ°ΠΌΠΎΡ ΡΡΠ·Π½ΠΎΡ ΠΏΡΠΈΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΈ
Π£ΡΠ°Ρ ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΡΡΠ½ΠΎΡ ΡΠΊΠ»Π°Π΄ΠΎΠ²ΠΎΡ ΠΏΡΠΈ ΠΎΡΡΠ½ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉΠ½ΠΎΡ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π°Π±Π»ΠΈΠ²ΠΎΡΡΡ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠΎΠ½Ρ
Π£ Π΄ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ°ΡΡΡ ΠΎΠ±Π³ΡΡΠ½ΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΎ Π½Π΅ΠΎΠ±Ρ
ΡΠ΄Π½ΡΡΡΡ ΡΡΠ°Ρ
ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΡΡΠ½ΠΎΡ ΡΠΊΠ»Π°Π΄ΠΎΠ²ΠΎΡ ΠΏΡΠΈ ΠΎΡΡΠ½ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉΠ½ΠΎΡ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π°Π±Π»ΠΈΠ²ΠΎΡΡΡ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠΎΠ½Ρ. Π ΠΎΠ·ΡΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅Π½ΠΎ Π²ΡΠ΄ΠΏΠΎΠ²ΡΠ΄Π½ΠΈΠΉ Π½Π°ΡΠΊΠΎΠ²ΠΎ-ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΡΠ½ΠΈΠΉ ΠΏΡΠ΄Ρ
ΡΠ΄, ΡΠΊΠΈΠΉ ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π΄Π±Π°ΡΠ°Ρ Π²ΠΈΠ·Π½Π°ΡΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ ΡΠ½ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π½ΠΈΠΊΠ° ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉΠ½ΠΎΡ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π°Π±Π»ΠΈΠ²ΠΎΡΡΡ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠΎΠ½Ρ Π½Π° ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Ρ ΡΠΎΡΠΌΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ ΡΠ½ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π½ΠΈΠΊΡΠ² Π²Π·Π°ΡΠΌΠΎΠΏΠΎΠ²βΡΠ·Π°Π½ΠΈΡ
ΠΌΡΠΆ ΡΠΎΠ±ΠΎΡ ΡΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΎΡΡΠΉ:
ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉΠ½ΠΈΠΉ ΠΏΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΡΡΠ°Π», ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉΠ½ΠΈΠΉ ΠΊΠ»ΡΠΌΠ°Ρ, ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉΠ½Π° Π°ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΡΡΡΡ,
ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉΠ½Ρ ΡΠΈΠ·ΠΈΠΊΠΈ, Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΡΡΠ½Π° ΡΠΊΠ»Π°Π΄ΠΎΠ²Π°. Π£ ΡΠΎΠ±ΠΎΡΡ Π·Π°ΠΏΡΠΎΠΏΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΎ Π°Π²ΡΠΎΡΡΡΠΊΠ΅ Π²ΠΈΠ·Π½Π°ΡΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ ΠΏΠΎΠ½ΡΡΡΡ Β«ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉΠ½Π° ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π°Π±Π»ΠΈΠ²ΡΡΡΡ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠΎΠ½ΡΒ» Ρ ΡΡΠΎΡΠΌΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΎ ΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΠΌΡ Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΡΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΡΠ° Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΡΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π½ΠΈΠΊΡΠ² Π΄Π»Ρ ΡΠΎΠ·ΡΠ°Ρ
ΡΠ½ΠΊΡ ΡΠ½ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π½ΠΈΠΊΠ° ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉΠ½ΠΎΡ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π°Π±Π»ΠΈΠ²ΠΎΡΡΡ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠΎΠ½Ρ. Π ΠΎΠ·ΡΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅Π½ΠΎ ΠΎΡΠ³Π°Π½ΡΠ·Π°ΡΡΠΉΠ½ΠΎ Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΡΡΠ½ΠΈΠΉ ΠΌΠ΅Ρ
Π°Π½ΡΠ·ΠΌ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ»ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ Π·Π°Π»ΡΡΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉ Ρ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠΎΠ½, ΡΠΎ Π²ΠΌΡΡΡΡ ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠΏΠ»Π΅ΠΊΡ ΠΎΡΠ³Π°Π½ΡΠ·Π°ΡΡΠΉΠ½ΠΎ-Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΡΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΡΠ½ΡΡΡΡΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΡΠ² Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΡΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠΏΡΡΠΌΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ, Π·Π³ΡΡΠΏΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ
Ρ ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΡΠΎΠ½Π°Π»ΡΠ½Ρ Π±Π»ΠΎΠΊΠΈ.Π Π΄ΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΎΠ±ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π° Π½Π΅ΠΎΠ±Ρ
ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΠΌΠΎΡΡΡ ΡΡΠ΅ΡΠ° ΡΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ ΡΠΎΡΡΠ°Π²Π»ΡΡΡΠ΅ΠΉ ΠΏΡΠΈ ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠΈ ΠΈΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π»Π΅ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°.
Π Π°Π·ΡΠ°Π±ΠΎΡΠ°Π½ ΡΠΎΠΎΡΠ²Π΅ΡΡΡΠ²ΡΡΡΠΈΠΉ Π½Π°ΡΡΠ½ΠΎ-ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΠΉ ΠΏΠΎΠ΄Ρ
ΠΎΠ΄, ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΏΠΎΠ»Π°Π³Π°ΡΡΠΈΠΉ ΠΎΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π΅Π»Π΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π°ΡΠ΅Π»Ρ ΠΈΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π»Π΅ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΈΠΎΠ½Π° Π½Π° ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π΅ ΡΠΎΡΠΌΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π°ΡΠ΅Π»Π΅ΠΉ Π²Π·Π°ΠΈΠΌΠΎΡΠ²ΡΠ·Π°Π½Π½ΡΡ
ΠΌΠ΅ΠΆΠ΄Ρ ΡΠΎΠ±ΠΎΠΉ ΡΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΡ
ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΎΡΠΈΠΉ: ΠΈΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΡΠΉ ΠΏΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΡΠΈΠ°Π»,
ΠΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΡΠΉ ΠΊΠ»ΠΈΠΌΠ°Ρ, ΠΈΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½Π°Ρ Π°ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΎΡΡΡ, ΠΈΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΡΠ΅ ΡΠΈΡΠΊΠΈ, ΠΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠ°Ρ ΡΠΎΡΡΠ°Π²Π»ΡΡΡΠ°Ρ. ΠΡΠ΅Π΄Π»ΠΎΠΆΠ΅Π½ΠΎ Π°Π²ΡΠΎΡΡΠΊΠΎΠ΅ ΠΎΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π΅Π»Π΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΎΡΠΈΠΈ Β«ΠΈΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½Π°Ρ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π»Π΅ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡ ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°Β» ΠΈ ΡΡΠΎΡΠΌΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π° ΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ° ΡΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΡ
ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π°ΡΠ΅Π»Π΅ΠΉ Π΄Π»Ρ ΡΠ°ΡΡΠ΅ΡΠ° ΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π°ΡΠ΅Π»Ρ ΠΈΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π»Π΅ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°. Π Π°Π·ΡΠ°Π±ΠΎΡΠ°Π½ ΠΎΡΠ³Π°Π½ΠΈΠ·Π°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΠΎ-
ΡΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΠΉ ΠΌΠ΅Ρ
Π°Π½ΠΈΠ·ΠΌ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ»ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π»Π΅ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΈΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΉ Π² ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΈΠΎΠ½, Π²ΠΊΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΡΡΠΈΠΉ ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠΏΠ»Π΅ΠΊΡ ΠΎΡΠ³Π°Π½ΠΈΠ·Π°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΠΎ-ΡΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΡ
ΠΈΠ½ΡΡΡΡΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΠΎΠ² ΡΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ Π½Π°ΠΏΡΠ°Π²Π»Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ, ΡΠ³ΡΡΠΏΠΏΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π½ΡΡ
Π² ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠ΅ Π±Π»ΠΎΠΊΠΈ.Scientific, methodical and practical approaches to incorporation of environmental component in the evaluation of investment attractiveness of the region are improved in the thesis. The objective necessity of considering environmental component in the evaluating of investment attractiveness of the region and in the formulation and implementation of ecologically oriented investment decisions is proved.
Definition of the category Β«investment attractiveness of the regionΒ» received further development as a result of existing scientific and practical research. Scientific and methodical approach to incorporation of environmental component in the evaluation of investment attractiveness of the region, which assumes determination of the integral index of investment attractiveness of the region based on the formation of integral indicators of such interconnected synthetic categories as investment potential, investment climate, investment activity,
Investment risks, and environmental component is proposed. The proposed approach allows taking into account the main factors affecting the investment attractiveness of the region (especially of natural resource nature), to determine the level and dynamics of development for selected groups of factors, to calculate the integral index of investment attractiveness of each region, to rank the regions on the basis of the calculations, to analyze the dynamics of investment flows and offer effective organizational and economic activities to increase investment attractiveness of the region.
Based on the performed critical analysis of basic approaches to the evaluation of investment attractiveness of the region we formed the system of economic indicators, Used to calculate the integral index of investment attractiveness of the region. It also takes into account the complex ecological and economic indicators characterizing the level of environmental pollution in the region, its natural resource potential, Environment protection and environmental education costs, the development of environmental infrastructure in the region and environmental focus of economic agents.
Based on the research results we developed organizational and economic mechanism for regulation attracting investment to the region. It includes a complex of environmentally oriented organizational and economic instruments, grouped into functional blocks, the intended use of which improves the efficiency of the implementation of the regional investment policy, taking into account environmental requirements. Their integrated use is aimed at revitalization of attracting investment to the region.
Practical approbation of the offered method to the evaluation of investment attractiveness of the region incorporating environmental component allows drawing a conclusion about necessity and efficiency of its practical application by economic agents, investment companies, the executive authorities, and other interested businesses
Π£ΡΠ°Ρ ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΡΡΠ½ΠΎΡ ΡΠΊΠ»Π°Π΄ΠΎΠ²ΠΎΡ ΠΏΡΠΈ ΠΎΡΡΠ½ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉΠ½ΠΎΡ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π°Π±Π»ΠΈΠ²ΠΎΡΡΡ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠΎΠ½Ρ
Π£ Π΄ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ°ΡΡΡ ΠΎΠ±Π³ΡΡΠ½ΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΎ Π½Π΅ΠΎΠ±Ρ
ΡΠ΄Π½ΡΡΡΡ ΡΡΠ°Ρ
ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΡΡΠ½ΠΎΡ ΡΠΊΠ»Π°Π΄ΠΎΠ²ΠΎΡ ΠΏΡΠΈ ΠΎΡΡΠ½ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉΠ½ΠΎΡ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π°Π±Π»ΠΈΠ²ΠΎΡΡΡ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠΎΠ½Ρ. Π ΠΎΠ·ΡΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅Π½ΠΎ Π²ΡΠ΄ΠΏΠΎΠ²ΡΠ΄Π½ΠΈΠΉ Π½Π°ΡΠΊΠΎΠ²ΠΎ-ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΡΠ½ΠΈΠΉ ΠΏΡΠ΄Ρ
ΡΠ΄, ΡΠΊΠΈΠΉ ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π΄Π±Π°ΡΠ°Ρ Π²ΠΈΠ·Π½Π°ΡΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ ΡΠ½ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π½ΠΈΠΊΠ° ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉΠ½ΠΎΡ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π°Π±Π»ΠΈΠ²ΠΎΡΡΡ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠΎΠ½Ρ Π½Π° ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Ρ ΡΠΎΡΠΌΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ ΡΠ½ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π½ΠΈΠΊΡΠ² Π²Π·Π°ΡΠΌΠΎΠΏΠΎΠ²βΡΠ·Π°Π½ΠΈΡ
ΠΌΡΠΆ ΡΠΎΠ±ΠΎΡ ΡΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΎΡΡΠΉ: ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉΠ½ΠΈΠΉ ΠΏΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΡΡΠ°Π», ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉΠ½ΠΈΠΉ ΠΊΠ»ΡΠΌΠ°Ρ, ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉΠ½Π° Π°ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΡΡΡΡ, ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉΠ½Ρ ΡΠΈΠ·ΠΈΠΊΠΈ, Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΡΡΠ½Π° ΡΠΊΠ»Π°Π΄ΠΎΠ²Π°. Π£ ΡΠΎΠ±ΠΎΡΡ Π·Π°ΠΏΡΠΎΠΏΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΎ Π°Π²ΡΠΎΡΡΡΠΊΠ΅ Π²ΠΈΠ·Π½Π°ΡΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ ΠΏΠΎΠ½ΡΡΡΡ Β«ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉΠ½Π° ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π°Π±Π»ΠΈΠ²ΡΡΡΡ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠΎΠ½ΡΒ» Ρ ΡΡΠΎΡΠΌΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΎ ΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΠΌΡ Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΡΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΡΠ° Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΡΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π½ΠΈΠΊΡΠ² Π΄Π»Ρ ΡΠΎΠ·ΡΠ°Ρ
ΡΠ½ΠΊΡ ΡΠ½ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π½ΠΈΠΊΠ° ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉΠ½ΠΎΡ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π°Π±Π»ΠΈΠ²ΠΎΡΡΡ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠΎΠ½Ρ. Π ΠΎΠ·ΡΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅Π½ΠΎ ΠΎΡΠ³Π°Π½ΡΠ·Π°ΡΡΠΉΠ½ΠΎ Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΡΡΠ½ΠΈΠΉ ΠΌΠ΅Ρ
Π°Π½ΡΠ·ΠΌ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ»ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ Π·Π°Π»ΡΡΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉ Ρ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠΎΠ½, ΡΠΎ Π²ΠΌΡΡΡΡ ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠΏΠ»Π΅ΠΊΡ ΠΎΡΠ³Π°Π½ΡΠ·Π°ΡΡΠΉΠ½ΠΎ-Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΡΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΡΠ½ΡΡΡΡΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΡΠ² Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΡΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠΏΡΡΠΌΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ, Π·Π³ΡΡΠΏΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ
Ρ ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΡΠΎΠ½Π°Π»ΡΠ½Ρ Π±Π»ΠΎΠΊΠΈ.Π Π΄ΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΎΠ±ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π° Π½Π΅ΠΎΠ±Ρ
ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΠΌΠΎΡΡΡ ΡΡΠ΅ΡΠ° ΡΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ ΡΠΎΡΡΠ°Π²Π»ΡΡΡΠ΅ΠΉ ΠΏΡΠΈ ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠΈ ΠΈΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π»Π΅ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°. Π Π°Π·ΡΠ°Π±ΠΎΡΠ°Π½ ΡΠΎΠΎΡΠ²Π΅ΡΡΡΠ²ΡΡΡΠΈΠΉ Π½Π°ΡΡΠ½ΠΎ-ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΠΉ ΠΏΠΎΠ΄Ρ
ΠΎΠ΄, ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΏΠΎΠ»Π°Π³Π°ΡΡΠΈΠΉ ΠΎΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π΅Π»Π΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π°ΡΠ΅Π»Ρ ΠΈΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π»Π΅ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΈΠΎΠ½Π° Π½Π° ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π΅ ΡΠΎΡΠΌΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π°ΡΠ΅Π»Π΅ΠΉ Π²Π·Π°ΠΈΠΌΠΎΡΠ²ΡΠ·Π°Π½Π½ΡΡ
ΠΌΠ΅ΠΆΠ΄Ρ ΡΠΎΠ±ΠΎΠΉ ΡΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΡ
ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΎΡΠΈΠΉ: ΠΈΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΡΠΉ ΠΏΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΡΠΈΠ°Π», ΠΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΡΠΉ ΠΊΠ»ΠΈΠΌΠ°Ρ, ΠΈΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½Π°Ρ Π°ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΎΡΡΡ, ΠΈΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΡΠ΅ ΡΠΈΡΠΊΠΈ, ΠΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠ°Ρ ΡΠΎΡΡΠ°Π²Π»ΡΡΡΠ°Ρ. ΠΡΠ΅Π΄Π»ΠΎΠΆΠ΅Π½ΠΎ Π°Π²ΡΠΎΡΡΠΊΠΎΠ΅ ΠΎΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π΅Π»Π΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΎΡΠΈΠΈ Β«ΠΈΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½Π°Ρ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π»Π΅ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡ ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°Β» ΠΈ ΡΡΠΎΡΠΌΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π° ΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ° ΡΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΡ
ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π°ΡΠ΅Π»Π΅ΠΉ Π΄Π»Ρ ΡΠ°ΡΡΠ΅ΡΠ° ΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π°ΡΠ΅Π»Ρ ΠΈΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π»Π΅ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°. Π Π°Π·ΡΠ°Π±ΠΎΡΠ°Π½ ΠΎΡΠ³Π°Π½ΠΈΠ·Π°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΠΎ- ΡΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΠΉ ΠΌΠ΅Ρ
Π°Π½ΠΈΠ·ΠΌ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ»ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π»Π΅ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΈΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΉ Π² ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΈΠΎΠ½, Π²ΠΊΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΡΡΠΈΠΉ ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠΏΠ»Π΅ΠΊΡ ΠΎΡΠ³Π°Π½ΠΈΠ·Π°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΠΎ-ΡΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΡ
ΠΈΠ½ΡΡΡΡΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΠΎΠ² ΡΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ Π½Π°ΠΏΡΠ°Π²Π»Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ, ΡΠ³ΡΡΠΏΠΏΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π½ΡΡ
Π² ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠ΅ Π±Π»ΠΎΠΊΠΈ.Scientific, methodical and practical approaches to incorporation of environmental component in the evaluation of investment attractiveness of the region are improved in the thesis. The objective necessity of considering environmental component in the evaluating of investment attractiveness of the region and in the formulation and implementation of ecologically oriented investment decisions is proved. Definition of the category Β«investment attractiveness of the regionΒ» received further development as a result of existing scientific and practical research. Scientific and methodical approach to incorporation of environmental component in the evaluation of investment attractiveness of the region, which assumes determination of the integral index of investment attractiveness of the region based on the formation of integral indicators of such interconnected synthetic categories as investment potential, investment climate, investment activity, Investment risks, and environmental component is proposed. The proposed approach allows taking into account the main factors affecting the investment attractiveness of the region (especially of natural resource nature), to determine the level and dynamics of development for selected groups of factors, to calculate the integral index of investment attractiveness of each region, to rank the regions on the basis of the calculations, to analyze the dynamics of investment flows and offer effective organizational and economic activities to increase investment attractiveness of the region. Based on the performed critical analysis of basic approaches to the evaluation of investment attractiveness of the region we formed the system of economic indicators, Used to calculate the integral index of investment attractiveness of the region. It also takes into account the complex ecological and economic indicators characterizing the level of environmental pollution in the region, its natural resource potential, Environment protection and environmental education costs, the development of environmental infrastructure in the region and environmental focus of economic agents. Based on the research results we developed organizational and economic mechanism for regulation attracting investment to the region. It includes a complex of environmentally oriented organizational and economic instruments, grouped into functional blocks, the intended use of which improves the efficiency of the implementation of the regional investment policy, taking into account environmental requirements. Their integrated use is aimed at revitalization of attracting investment to the region. Practical approbation of the offered method to the evaluation of investment attractiveness of the region incorporating environmental component allows drawing a conclusion about necessity and efficiency of its practical application by economic agents, investment companies, the executive authorities, and other interested businesses
The Problems of Ensuring the Monetary-Credit Security of Ukraine
Ensuring the high monetary-credit security of Ukraine is a topical issue today, because it affects the level of development of the State as a whole and the individual economic entities in particular. The article is aimed at carrying out an evaluation of the level of monetary-credit security of Ukraine for the time period of 2013β2017, analyzing the main problems in this sphere, and searching for ways to solve them. The evaluation showed that Ukraine in recent years had too low monetary-credit security values (unsatisfactory and dangerous level). The analysis of the main and proposed additional indicators of the monetary-credit security showed that Ukraine has a number of shortcomings in this sphere. Therefore, today there is an urgent need to introduce measures that would eliminate deficiencies in the monetary sphere of Ukraine, and to develop a strategy for development of the monetary-credit market of our country. Priority tasks should be: finding a way out of the Β«shadowΒ» regarding the economy of Ukraine; stopping the global outflow of capital from the country and directing it to the national economic development; conduction of a weighted monetary policy by the NBU; implementation of a set of measures aimed at stabilizing the monetary-credit security of Ukraine. Accomplishing of such measures will increase the level of monetary-credit security only with full support at all levels of governance
Π£ΡΠ°Ρ ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΡΡΠ½ΠΎΡ ΡΠΊΠ»Π°Π΄ΠΎΠ²ΠΎΡ ΠΏΡΠΈ ΠΎΡΡΠ½ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉΠ½ΠΎΡ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π°Π±Π»ΠΈΠ²ΠΎΡΡΡ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠΎΠ½Ρ
Π£ Π΄ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ°ΡΡΡ ΠΎΠ±Π³ΡΡΠ½ΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΎ Π½Π΅ΠΎΠ±Ρ
ΡΠ΄Π½ΡΡΡΡ ΡΡΠ°Ρ
ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΡΡΠ½ΠΎΡ ΡΠΊΠ»Π°Π΄ΠΎΠ²ΠΎΡ ΠΏΡΠΈ ΠΎΡΡΠ½ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉΠ½ΠΎΡ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π°Π±Π»ΠΈΠ²ΠΎΡΡΡ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠΎΠ½Ρ. Π ΠΎΠ·ΡΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅Π½ΠΎ Π²ΡΠ΄ΠΏΠΎΠ²ΡΠ΄Π½ΠΈΠΉ Π½Π°ΡΠΊΠΎΠ²ΠΎ-ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΡΠ½ΠΈΠΉ ΠΏΡΠ΄Ρ
ΡΠ΄, ΡΠΊΠΈΠΉ ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π΄Π±Π°ΡΠ°Ρ Π²ΠΈΠ·Π½Π°ΡΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ ΡΠ½ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π½ΠΈΠΊΠ° ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉΠ½ΠΎΡ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π°Π±Π»ΠΈΠ²ΠΎΡΡΡ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠΎΠ½Ρ Π½Π° ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Ρ ΡΠΎΡΠΌΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ ΡΠ½ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π½ΠΈΠΊΡΠ² Π²Π·Π°ΡΠΌΠΎΠΏΠΎΠ²βΡΠ·Π°Π½ΠΈΡ
ΠΌΡΠΆ ΡΠΎΠ±ΠΎΡ ΡΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΎΡΡΠΉ: ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉΠ½ΠΈΠΉ ΠΏΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΡΡΠ°Π», ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉΠ½ΠΈΠΉ ΠΊΠ»ΡΠΌΠ°Ρ, ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉΠ½Π° Π°ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΡΡΡΡ, ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉΠ½Ρ ΡΠΈΠ·ΠΈΠΊΠΈ, Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΡΡΠ½Π° ΡΠΊΠ»Π°Π΄ΠΎΠ²Π°. Π£ ΡΠΎΠ±ΠΎΡΡ Π·Π°ΠΏΡΠΎΠΏΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΎ Π°Π²ΡΠΎΡΡΡΠΊΠ΅ Π²ΠΈΠ·Π½Π°ΡΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ ΠΏΠΎΠ½ΡΡΡΡ Β«ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉΠ½Π° ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π°Π±Π»ΠΈΠ²ΡΡΡΡ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠΎΠ½ΡΒ» Ρ ΡΡΠΎΡΠΌΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΎ ΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΠΌΡ Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΡΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΡΠ° Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΡΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π½ΠΈΠΊΡΠ² Π΄Π»Ρ ΡΠΎΠ·ΡΠ°Ρ
ΡΠ½ΠΊΡ ΡΠ½ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π½ΠΈΠΊΠ° ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉΠ½ΠΎΡ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π°Π±Π»ΠΈΠ²ΠΎΡΡΡ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠΎΠ½Ρ. Π ΠΎΠ·ΡΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅Π½ΠΎ ΠΎΡΠ³Π°Π½ΡΠ·Π°ΡΡΠΉΠ½ΠΎ Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΡΡΠ½ΠΈΠΉ ΠΌΠ΅Ρ
Π°Π½ΡΠ·ΠΌ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ»ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ Π·Π°Π»ΡΡΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉ Ρ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠΎΠ½, ΡΠΎ Π²ΠΌΡΡΡΡ ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠΏΠ»Π΅ΠΊΡ ΠΎΡΠ³Π°Π½ΡΠ·Π°ΡΡΠΉΠ½ΠΎ-Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΡΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΡΠ½ΡΡΡΡΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΡΠ² Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΡΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠΏΡΡΠΌΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ, Π·Π³ΡΡΠΏΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ
Ρ ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΡΠΎΠ½Π°Π»ΡΠ½Ρ Π±Π»ΠΎΠΊΠΈ.Π Π΄ΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΎΠ±ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π° Π½Π΅ΠΎΠ±Ρ
ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΠΌΠΎΡΡΡ ΡΡΠ΅ΡΠ° ΡΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ ΡΠΎΡΡΠ°Π²Π»ΡΡΡΠ΅ΠΉ ΠΏΡΠΈ ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠΈ ΠΈΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π»Π΅ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°. Π Π°Π·ΡΠ°Π±ΠΎΡΠ°Π½ ΡΠΎΠΎΡΠ²Π΅ΡΡΡΠ²ΡΡΡΠΈΠΉ Π½Π°ΡΡΠ½ΠΎ-ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΠΉ ΠΏΠΎΠ΄Ρ
ΠΎΠ΄, ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΏΠΎΠ»Π°Π³Π°ΡΡΠΈΠΉ ΠΎΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π΅Π»Π΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π°ΡΠ΅Π»Ρ ΠΈΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π»Π΅ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΈΠΎΠ½Π° Π½Π° ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π΅ ΡΠΎΡΠΌΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π°ΡΠ΅Π»Π΅ΠΉ Π²Π·Π°ΠΈΠΌΠΎΡΠ²ΡΠ·Π°Π½Π½ΡΡ
ΠΌΠ΅ΠΆΠ΄Ρ ΡΠΎΠ±ΠΎΠΉ ΡΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΡ
ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΎΡΠΈΠΉ: ΠΈΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΡΠΉ ΠΏΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΡΠΈΠ°Π», ΠΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΡΠΉ ΠΊΠ»ΠΈΠΌΠ°Ρ, ΠΈΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½Π°Ρ Π°ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΎΡΡΡ, ΠΈΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΡΠ΅ ΡΠΈΡΠΊΠΈ, ΠΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠ°Ρ ΡΠΎΡΡΠ°Π²Π»ΡΡΡΠ°Ρ. ΠΡΠ΅Π΄Π»ΠΎΠΆΠ΅Π½ΠΎ Π°Π²ΡΠΎΡΡΠΊΠΎΠ΅ ΠΎΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π΅Π»Π΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΎΡΠΈΠΈ Β«ΠΈΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½Π°Ρ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π»Π΅ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡ ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°Β» ΠΈ ΡΡΠΎΡΠΌΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π° ΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ° ΡΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΡ
ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π°ΡΠ΅Π»Π΅ΠΉ Π΄Π»Ρ ΡΠ°ΡΡΠ΅ΡΠ° ΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π°ΡΠ΅Π»Ρ ΠΈΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π»Π΅ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°. Π Π°Π·ΡΠ°Π±ΠΎΡΠ°Π½ ΠΎΡΠ³Π°Π½ΠΈΠ·Π°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΠΎ- ΡΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΠΉ ΠΌΠ΅Ρ
Π°Π½ΠΈΠ·ΠΌ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ»ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π»Π΅ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΈΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΉ Π² ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΈΠΎΠ½, Π²ΠΊΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΡΡΠΈΠΉ ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠΏΠ»Π΅ΠΊΡ ΠΎΡΠ³Π°Π½ΠΈΠ·Π°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΠΎ-ΡΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΡ
ΠΈΠ½ΡΡΡΡΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΠΎΠ² ΡΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ Π½Π°ΠΏΡΠ°Π²Π»Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ, ΡΠ³ΡΡΠΏΠΏΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π½ΡΡ
Π² ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠ΅ Π±Π»ΠΎΠΊΠΈ.Scientific, methodical and practical approaches to incorporation of environmental component in the evaluation of investment attractiveness of the region are improved in the thesis. The objective necessity of considering environmental component in the evaluating of investment attractiveness of the region and in the formulation and implementation of ecologically oriented investment decisions is proved. Definition of the category Β«investment attractiveness of the regionΒ» received further development as a result of existing scientific and practical research. Scientific and methodical approach to incorporation of environmental component in the evaluation of investment attractiveness of the region, which assumes determination of the integral index of investment attractiveness of the region based on the formation of integral indicators of such interconnected synthetic categories as investment potential, investment climate, investment activity, Investment risks, and environmental component is proposed. The proposed approach allows taking into account the main factors affecting the investment attractiveness of the region (especially of natural resource nature), to determine the level and dynamics of development for selected groups of factors, to calculate the integral index of investment attractiveness of each region, to rank the regions on the basis of the calculations, to analyze the dynamics of investment flows and offer effective organizational and economic activities to increase investment attractiveness of the region. Based on the performed critical analysis of basic approaches to the evaluation of investment attractiveness of the region we formed the system of economic indicators, Used to calculate the integral index of investment attractiveness of the region. It also takes into account the complex ecological and economic indicators characterizing the level of environmental pollution in the region, its natural resource potential, Environment protection and environmental education costs, the development of environmental infrastructure in the region and environmental focus of economic agents. Based on the research results we developed organizational and economic mechanism for regulation attracting investment to the region. It includes a complex of environmentally oriented organizational and economic instruments, grouped into functional blocks, the intended use of which improves the efficiency of the implementation of the regional investment policy, taking into account environmental requirements. Their integrated use is aimed at revitalization of attracting investment to the region. Practical approbation of the offered method to the evaluation of investment attractiveness of the region incorporating environmental component allows drawing a conclusion about necessity and efficiency of its practical application by economic agents, investment companies, the executive authorities, and other interested businesses
Π£ΡΠ°Ρ ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΡΡΠ½ΠΎΡ ΡΠΊΠ»Π°Π΄ΠΎΠ²ΠΎΡ ΠΏΡΠΈ ΠΎΡΡΠ½ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉΠ½ΠΎΡ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π°Π±Π»ΠΈΠ²ΠΎΡΡΡ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠΎΠ½Ρ
Π£ Π΄ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ°ΡΡΡ ΠΎΠ±Π³ΡΡΠ½ΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΎ Π½Π΅ΠΎΠ±Ρ
ΡΠ΄Π½ΡΡΡΡ ΡΡΠ°Ρ
ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΡΡΠ½ΠΎΡ ΡΠΊΠ»Π°Π΄ΠΎΠ²ΠΎΡ ΠΏΡΠΈ ΠΎΡΡΠ½ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉΠ½ΠΎΡ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π°Π±Π»ΠΈΠ²ΠΎΡΡΡ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠΎΠ½Ρ. Π ΠΎΠ·ΡΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅Π½ΠΎ Π²ΡΠ΄ΠΏΠΎΠ²ΡΠ΄Π½ΠΈΠΉ Π½Π°ΡΠΊΠΎΠ²ΠΎ-ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΡΠ½ΠΈΠΉ ΠΏΡΠ΄Ρ
ΡΠ΄, ΡΠΊΠΈΠΉ ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π΄Π±Π°ΡΠ°Ρ Π²ΠΈΠ·Π½Π°ΡΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ ΡΠ½ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π½ΠΈΠΊΠ° ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉΠ½ΠΎΡ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π°Π±Π»ΠΈΠ²ΠΎΡΡΡ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠΎΠ½Ρ Π½Π° ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Ρ ΡΠΎΡΠΌΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ ΡΠ½ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π½ΠΈΠΊΡΠ² Π²Π·Π°ΡΠΌΠΎΠΏΠΎΠ²βΡΠ·Π°Π½ΠΈΡ
ΠΌΡΠΆ ΡΠΎΠ±ΠΎΡ ΡΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΎΡΡΠΉ:
ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉΠ½ΠΈΠΉ ΠΏΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΡΡΠ°Π», ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉΠ½ΠΈΠΉ ΠΊΠ»ΡΠΌΠ°Ρ, ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉΠ½Π° Π°ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΡΡΡΡ,
ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉΠ½Ρ ΡΠΈΠ·ΠΈΠΊΠΈ, Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΡΡΠ½Π° ΡΠΊΠ»Π°Π΄ΠΎΠ²Π°. Π£ ΡΠΎΠ±ΠΎΡΡ Π·Π°ΠΏΡΠΎΠΏΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΎ Π°Π²ΡΠΎΡΡΡΠΊΠ΅ Π²ΠΈΠ·Π½Π°ΡΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ ΠΏΠΎΠ½ΡΡΡΡ Β«ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉΠ½Π° ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π°Π±Π»ΠΈΠ²ΡΡΡΡ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠΎΠ½ΡΒ» Ρ ΡΡΠΎΡΠΌΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΎ ΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΠΌΡ Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΡΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΡΠ° Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΡΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π½ΠΈΠΊΡΠ² Π΄Π»Ρ ΡΠΎΠ·ΡΠ°Ρ
ΡΠ½ΠΊΡ ΡΠ½ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π½ΠΈΠΊΠ° ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉΠ½ΠΎΡ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π°Π±Π»ΠΈΠ²ΠΎΡΡΡ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠΎΠ½Ρ. Π ΠΎΠ·ΡΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅Π½ΠΎ ΠΎΡΠ³Π°Π½ΡΠ·Π°ΡΡΠΉΠ½ΠΎ Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΡΡΠ½ΠΈΠΉ ΠΌΠ΅Ρ
Π°Π½ΡΠ·ΠΌ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ»ΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ Π·Π°Π»ΡΡΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ ΡΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΡΠΉ Ρ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠΎΠ½, ΡΠΎ Π²ΠΌΡΡΡΡ ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠΏΠ»Π΅ΠΊΡ ΠΎΡΠ³Π°Π½ΡΠ·Π°ΡΡΠΉΠ½ΠΎ-Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΡΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΡΠ½ΡΡΡΡΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΡΠ² Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΡΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠΏΡΡΠΌΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ, Π·Π³ΡΡΠΏΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ
Ρ ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΡΠΎΠ½Π°Π»ΡΠ½Ρ Π±Π»ΠΎΠΊΠΈ.Π Π΄ΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΎΠ±ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π° Π½Π΅ΠΎΠ±Ρ
ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΠΌΠΎΡΡΡ ΡΡΠ΅ΡΠ° ΡΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ ΡΠΎΡΡΠ°Π²Π»ΡΡΡΠ΅ΠΉ ΠΏΡΠΈ ΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠΈ ΠΈΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π»Π΅ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°.
Π Π°Π·ΡΠ°Π±ΠΎΡΠ°Π½ ΡΠΎΠΎΡΠ²Π΅ΡΡΡΠ²ΡΡΡΠΈΠΉ Π½Π°ΡΡΠ½ΠΎ-ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΠΉ ΠΏΠΎΠ΄Ρ
ΠΎΠ΄, ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄ΠΏΠΎΠ»Π°Π³Π°ΡΡΠΈΠΉ ΠΎΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π΅Π»Π΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π°ΡΠ΅Π»Ρ ΠΈΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π»Π΅ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΈΠΎΠ½Π° Π½Π° ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π΅ ΡΠΎΡΠΌΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π°ΡΠ΅Π»Π΅ΠΉ Π²Π·Π°ΠΈΠΌΠΎΡΠ²ΡΠ·Π°Π½Π½ΡΡ
ΠΌΠ΅ΠΆΠ΄Ρ ΡΠΎΠ±ΠΎΠΉ ΡΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΡ
ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΎΡΠΈΠΉ: ΠΈΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΡΠΉ ΠΏΠΎΡΠ΅Π½ΡΠΈΠ°Π»,
ΠΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΡΠΉ ΠΊΠ»ΠΈΠΌΠ°Ρ, ΠΈΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½Π°Ρ Π°ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΠΎΡΡΡ, ΠΈΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΡΠ΅ ΡΠΈΡΠΊΠΈ, ΠΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠ°Ρ ΡΠΎΡΡΠ°Π²Π»ΡΡΡΠ°Ρ. ΠΡΠ΅Π΄Π»ΠΎΠΆΠ΅Π½ΠΎ Π°Π²ΡΠΎΡΡΠΊΠΎΠ΅ ΠΎΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π΅Π»Π΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΎΡΠΈΠΈ Β«ΠΈΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½Π°Ρ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π»Π΅ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡ ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°Β» ΠΈ ΡΡΠΎΡΠΌΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π° ΡΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ° ΡΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΡ
ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π°ΡΠ΅Π»Π΅ΠΉ Π΄Π»Ρ ΡΠ°ΡΡΠ΅ΡΠ° ΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π°ΡΠ΅Π»Ρ ΠΈΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π»Π΅ΠΊΠ°ΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°. Π Π°Π·ΡΠ°Π±ΠΎΡΠ°Π½ ΠΎΡΠ³Π°Π½ΠΈΠ·Π°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΠΎ-
ΡΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΠΉ ΠΌΠ΅Ρ
Π°Π½ΠΈΠ·ΠΌ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ»ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ²Π»Π΅ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΈΠ½Π²Π΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΠΉ Π² ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΈΠΎΠ½, Π²ΠΊΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΡΡΠΈΠΉ ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠΏΠ»Π΅ΠΊΡ ΠΎΡΠ³Π°Π½ΠΈΠ·Π°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΠΎ-ΡΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΡ
ΠΈΠ½ΡΡΡΡΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΠΎΠ² ΡΠΊΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΎΠΉ Π½Π°ΠΏΡΠ°Π²Π»Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ, ΡΠ³ΡΡΠΏΠΏΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π½ΡΡ
Π² ΡΡΠ½ΠΊΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠ΅ Π±Π»ΠΎΠΊΠΈ.Scientific, methodical and practical approaches to incorporation of environmental component in the evaluation of investment attractiveness of the region are improved in the thesis. The objective necessity of considering environmental component in the evaluating of investment attractiveness of the region and in the formulation and implementation of ecologically oriented investment decisions is proved.
Definition of the category Β«investment attractiveness of the regionΒ» received further development as a result of existing scientific and practical research. Scientific and methodical approach to incorporation of environmental component in the evaluation of investment attractiveness of the region, which assumes determination of the integral index of investment attractiveness of the region based on the formation of integral indicators of such interconnected synthetic categories as investment potential, investment climate, investment activity,
Investment risks, and environmental component is proposed. The proposed approach allows taking into account the main factors affecting the investment attractiveness of the region (especially of natural resource nature), to determine the level and dynamics of development for selected groups of factors, to calculate the integral index of investment attractiveness of each region, to rank the regions on the basis of the calculations, to analyze the dynamics of investment flows and offer effective organizational and economic activities to increase investment attractiveness of the region.
Based on the performed critical analysis of basic approaches to the evaluation of investment attractiveness of the region we formed the system of economic indicators, Used to calculate the integral index of investment attractiveness of the region. It also takes into account the complex ecological and economic indicators characterizing the level of environmental pollution in the region, its natural resource potential, Environment protection and environmental education costs, the development of environmental infrastructure in the region and environmental focus of economic agents.
Based on the research results we developed organizational and economic mechanism for regulation attracting investment to the region. It includes a complex of environmentally oriented organizational and economic instruments, grouped into functional blocks, the intended use of which improves the efficiency of the implementation of the regional investment policy, taking into account environmental requirements. Their integrated use is aimed at revitalization of attracting investment to the region.
Practical approbation of the offered method to the evaluation of investment attractiveness of the region incorporating environmental component allows drawing a conclusion about necessity and efficiency of its practical application by economic agents, investment companies, the executive authorities, and other interested businesses
The strategies for sustainable development
Many strategies have been proposed to satisfy the demands of sustainable development. They are usually based on the notion that the limits to the use of our environment have already been reached. They differ, however, in their approaches towards dealing with this situation.
The first is based on the belief that any human society is part of, and depends on, an ecosystem. The ecosystem constrains the development of that society. It is necessary to respect the carrying capacity of the ecosystems in order to attain sustainability.
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ΠΠΎΠ²Π½ΡΡΠ½ΡΠΎΠ΅ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΡΡΠ½Π° Π΄ΡΡΠ»ΡΠ½ΡΡΡΡ
ΠΠ΅ΡΠΎΡ Π²ΠΈΠΊΠ»Π°Π΄Π°Π½Π½Ρ Π΄ΠΈΡΡΠΈΠΏΠ»ΡΠ½ΠΈ "ΠΠΎΠ²Π½ΡΡΠ½ΡΠΎΠ΅ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΡΡΠ½Π° Π΄ΡΡΠ»ΡΠ½ΡΡΡΡ" Ρ ΠΎΠ²ΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ΄ΡΠ½Π½Ρ ΡΡΡΠ΄Π΅Π½ΡΠ°ΠΌΠΈ ΡΡΡΠ°ΡΠ½ΠΈΠΌΠΈ ΡΠ΅ΠΎΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΡΠ½ΠΈΠΌΠΈ ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π°ΠΌΠΈ, Π·Π°Π³Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΈΠΌΠΈ ΠΏΡΠΈΠ½ΡΠΈΠΏΠ°ΠΌΠΈ Ρ ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠΆΠ΅Π½Π½ΡΠΌΠΈ Π·ΠΎΠ²Π½ΡΡΠ½ΡΠΎΠ΅ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΡΡΠ½ΠΎΡ Π΄ΡΡΠ»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡ ΠΏΡΠ΄ΠΏΡΠΈΡΠΌΡΡΠ²Π°.
ΠΡΠΈ ΡΠΈΡΡΠ²Π°Π½Π½Ρ Π΄ΠΎΠΊΡΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΠ°, Π²ΠΈΠΊΠΎΡΠΈΡΡΠΎΠ²ΡΠΉΡΠ΅ ΠΏΠΎΡΠΈΠ»Π°Π½Π½Ρ http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/3025