Läänemere kirdeosa põhjaelustiku bioloogiline mitmekesisus: kaardistamise metoodikad, ruumilised mustrid ja seosed keskkonnamuutujatega

Väitekirja elektrooniline versioon ei sisalda publikatsiooneBioloogiline mitmekesisus tagab ökosüsteemi funktsioneerimise muutuvates keskkonnatingimustes. Merealade ja ranniku kasutamine inimeste poolt on aga järjest intensiivistunud ning merealad on üha suureneva inimtegevustest tuleneva surve all. Mere kaitse ja majandamise otsuste jaoks on vaja bioloogilise mitmekesisuse kaarte, kuid tavapärane proovide kogumisel põhinev metoodika ei sobi suurte merealade kaardistamiseks. Käesolevas töös modelleeriti merepõhja suurtaimestiku ja suurselgrootute liigirikkuse ruumilist levikut Eestis kasutades sisendina proovipunktipõhiseid bioloogilise mitmekesisuse andmeid ja erinevate keskkonnamuutujate kaardikihte. Kõrgeimad põhjaelustiku liigirikkuse väärtused registreeriti Lääne-Eesti saarestikus. Võimalikke muutusi põhjaelustiku liigirikkuses tuleviku kliima tingimustes hinnati samuti modelleerimise abil ja leiti, et nii taimestiku kui loomastiku liigirikkus väheneb suuremal osal Eesti merealast. Modelleeritud liigirikkuse kaardikihte kasutati mereranna geomorfoloogia ja põhjaelustiku liigirikkuse vaheliste seoste uurimiseks, mille tulemusel leiti, et ranna geomorfoloogiliste tüüpide vahel esinesid statistiliselt olulise erinevused merepõhja elustiku liigirikkuses. Arendati välja metoodika merepõhja substraadi ja elustiku kaardistamiseks kasutades sonarit, veealuseid videoid ja matemaatilist modelleerimist. Metoodika võimaldab punktipõhise kaardistamisega võrreldes kõrgema detailsusega merepõhja substraadi ja elustiku leviku kaardistamist. Lisaks töötati välja põhjaelustiku liigirikkuse ja teiste mere loodusväärtuste (põhjaelustiku liigid, linnud, hülged) levikuandmete kasutamise hõlbustamiseks mere majandamisel spetsiaalsed meetodid – merekeskkonna tundlikkuse (EVP) ja riski profiilide (ERP) kaardikihid. EVP näitab merekeskkonna potentsiaalset tundlikkust häiringutele ja ERP võimaldab kindlaks teha piirkonnad, kus oht keskkonnale on kõrgeim nii elustiku pikaajalise taastumise kui kõrge inimtegevustest tuleneva surve tõttu.Biodiversity is important for keeping marine ecosystem functionality under changing environmental conditions. The human use of marine areas is increasing worldwide and intensively used marine areas are under increasing pressures. Decrease of marine biodiversity has already taken place. Therefore, knowledge about spatial patterns of biodiversity and its connections with environmental gradients is crucial to detect and follow changes in biodiversity and to form a well-informed basis for the protection and management of marine resources. In this study, the distribution of species richness of seabed macrovegetation and macroinvertebrates was modeled in the Estonian marine area based on previous point-wise sampling data and map layers of environmental variables (water depth, salinity etc). Highest biodiversity values were detected in the western Estonia archipelago. Potential changes of species richness in the conditions of future climate change were also estimated by modeling. It was found that biodiversity of both seabed flora and fauna will probably decrease across Estonian sea area. Modeled benthic biodiversity layers were further used to test the relationships between underwater biodiversity and shore geomorphology and it was shown that differences in the benthic biodiversity values close to different geomorphological shore types exist. Methodology for mapping seabed substrate and biota using acoustic scanning (sonar), underwater video and mathematical modeling was developed. Compared to the previous point-wise mapping the new sonar- and modelling-based methodology enables mapping of seabed substrate and biota with significantly higher resolution. To facilitate the use of spatial data of biodiversity and other nature values (benthic species, seals, birds) in marine management, marine environmental vulnerability (EVP) and risk (ERP) profiles were developed. EVP identifies environmentally vulnerable areas and ERP identifies areas where environmental risks are highest.https://www.ester.ee/record=b5251349~S

From ecosystems to socio-economic benefits: A systematic review of coastal ecosystem services in the Baltic Sea

Highlights: • We summarized 20 ecosystem services provided by coastal Baltic ecosystems. • Information on how services translate into socio-economic benefits is lacking. • The deep knowledge gap impairs the sustainable management of the benefits. • We propose a framework with four key measures to close this knowledge gap. • Toxins and Nutrients are the most well-document pressures to these services. Abstract: Seagrass meadows, algal forests and mussel beds are widely regarded as foundation species that support communities providing valuable ecosystem services in many coastal regions; however, quantitative evidence of the relationship is scarce. Using the Baltic Sea as a case study, a region of significant socio-economic importance in the northern hemisphere, we systematically synthesized the primary literature and summarized the current knowledge on ecosystem services derived from seagrass, macroalgae, and mussels (see animated video summary of the manuscript: Video abstract). We found 1740 individual ecosystem service records (ESR), 61% of which were related to macroalgae, 26% to mussel beds and 13% to seagrass meadows. The most frequently reported ecosystem services were raw material (533 ESR), habitat provision (262 ESR) and regulation of pollutants (215 ESR). Toxins (356 ESR) and nutrients (302 ESR) were the most well-documented pressures to services provided by coastal ecosystems. Next, we assessed the current state of knowledge as well as knowledge transfer of ecosystem services to policies through natural, social, human and economic dimensions, using a systematic scoring tool, the Eco-GAME matrix. We found good quantitative information about how ecosystems generated the service but almost no knowledge of how they translate into socio-economic benefits (8 out of 657 papers, 1.2%). While we are aware that research on Baltic Sea socio-economic benefits does exist, the link with ecosystems providing the service is mostly missing. To close this knowledge gap, we need a better analytical framework that is capable of directly linking existing quantitative information about ecosystem service generation with human benefit

Plan4Blue Scenarios for Blue Growth: Qualitative analysis based on expert opinions

Plan4Blue scenario process has a strong participatory element that is implemented by Delphi study and workshops. The scenario process adds qualitative information from Delphi rounds and workshops and leads to analysis on possibilities, also via identifying existing synergies or conflicts between blue economy sectors. In the first phase of the Plan4Blue scenario building, the aim was to look at possibilities and probabilities in order to create the draft future images. The analysis contained all blue economy sectors, in order to identify the important ones in terms of future development. In the second phase, selected blue economy sectors were focused on, based to the results of first rounds of Delphi, and to the results of economic analysis in WP T1. This deliverable present the finalized alternative scenarios for Blue Growth, including futures tables, futures images, and possible pathways leading to the alternative scenarios. They have been created based to the results of the Delphi rounds carried out in 2017 and 2018, and scenario workshops in Helsinki 2017 and Tallinn 2018. Links to deliverables on current status of blue economic business sectors and development trends of key sectors, and sector strategies will be done.This deliverable combines the closely interlinked activity delivery reports:D.T1.4.1 The first report on feedback and views of crossboundary and multisector expert panelD.T1.5.1 Report of the first cross-border multilevel workshop, including first set of scenariosD.T1.9.1 Second report of the Delphi-panel: report of the views of the expertsD.T1.10.1 Report of the second cross-border multilevel workshop; including final scenariosD.T1.11.1 Final report of expert panel workThe maps produced as part of the process are presented in WP3 Deliverable D. T3.6.1 Maps visualizing first versions of blue growth scenarios (Roose et al. 2017).</p

Mapping benthic biodiversity using georeferenced environmental data and predictive modeling

Biodiversity is critical for maintaining and stabilizing ecosystem processes. There is a need for high-resolution biodiversity maps that cover large sea areas in order to address ecological questions related to biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationships and to provide data for marine environmental protection and management decisions. However, traditional sampling-point-wise field work is not suitable for covering extensive areas in high detail. Spatial predictive modeling using biodiversity data from sampling points and georeferenced environmental data layers covering the whole study area is a potential way to create biodiversity maps for large spatial extents. Random forest (RF), generalized additive models (GAM), and boosted regression trees (BRT) were used in this study to produce benthic (macroinvertebrates, macrophytes) biodiversity maps in the northern Baltic Sea. Environmental raster layers (wave exposure, salinity, temperature, etc.) were used as independent variables in the models to predict the spatial distribution of species richness. A validation dataset containing data that was not included in model calibration was used to compare the prediction accuracy of the models. Each model was also evaluated visually to check for possible modeling artifacts that are not revealed by mathematical validation. All three models proved to have high predictive ability. RF and BRT predictions had higher correlations with validation data and lower mean absolute error than those of GAM. Both mathematically and visually, the predictions by RF and BRT were very similar. Depth and seabed sediments were the most influential abiotic variables in predicting the spatial patterns of biodiversity

An Eco-GAME Meta-Evaluation of Existing Methods for the Appreciation of Ecosystem Services

The isolation of science disciplines and the weak integration between science, policy and society represent main challenges for sustainable human development. If, on the one hand, the specialization of science has produced higher levels of knowledge, on the other hand, the whole picture of the complex interactions between systems has suffered. Economic and natural sciences are, on matters of sustainable development, strongly divergent, and the interface informing decision-making is weak. This downplays uncertainty and creates room for entrenched political positions, compromising evidence-based decision-making and putting the urgent need to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of Agenda 2030 at risk. This article presents the heterodox Eco-GAME framework for interconnecting science through trans-disciplinary social-learning and meta-evaluation of scientific knowledge in pursuit of SDGs. The framework is tested and refined in the BONUS MARES project by systematic literature analysis, participatory workshops, and semi-structured interviews, in relation to the specific habitats of Baltic Sea mussel reefs, seagrass beds and macroalgae ecosystem services produced and methods applied. The results, acknowledging the urgency of interfacing science, policy and society, validate the Eco-GAME as a framework for this purpose and present a multi-dimensional system of indicators as a further development

Towards navigational safety of ecosystem based Maritime Spatial Planning solutions

According to EU Directive establishing a framework for Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP) the main purpose of MSP is to promote sustainable development and to identify the utilization of maritime space for different sea uses as well as to manage spatial uses and conflicts in marine areas. The offshore wind energy production is considered to be one of the main drivers of MSP in the Baltic Sea Region. However, the impact on navigational safety from offshore renewable energy installations (OREI) should be assessed and taken into account in the MSP processes. In a course of implementation of the INTERREG BSR Baltic LINes project, this planning issue is addressed by analysis of the potential impact on navigational safety from planned OREI off the Hiiumaa Island (Estonia) in the Baltic Sea. As a result, the safe distance of turbines’ boundary from shipping route is evaluated referring as an example to UK relevant regulations determining the manoeuvring space that vessels need in order to keep a safe distance from multiple structures such as OREI. Accompanying environmental safety issues related to marine space allocation for OREI developments off the Hiiumaa Island are addressed

Towards navigational safety of ecosystem based Maritime Spatial Planning solutions

According to EU Directive establishing a framework for Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP) the main purpose of MSP is to promote sustainable development and to identify the utilization of maritime space for different sea uses as well as to manage spatial uses and conflicts in marine areas. The offshore wind energy production is considered to be one of the main drivers of MSP in the Baltic Sea Region. However, the impact on navigational safety from offshore renewable energy installations (OREI) should be assessed and taken into account in the MSP processes. In a course of implementation of the INTERREG BSR Baltic LINes project, this planning issue is addressed by analysis of the potential impact on navigational safety from planned OREI off the Hiiumaa Island (Estonia) in the Baltic Sea. As a result, the safe distance of turbines’ boundary from shipping route is evaluated referring as an example to UK relevant regulations determining the manoeuvring space that vessels need in order to keep a safe distance from multiple structures such as OREI. Accompanying environmental safety issues related to marine space allocation for OREI developments off the Hiiumaa Island are addressed

Linking atmospheric, terrestrial and aquatic environments: Regime shifts in the Estonian climate over the past 50 years.

Climate change in recent decades has been identified as a significant threat to natural environments and human wellbeing. This is because some of the contemporary changes to climate are abrupt and result in persistent changes in the state of natural systems; so called regime shifts (RS). This study aimed to detect and analyse the timing and strength of RS in Estonian climate at the half-century scale (1966-2013). We demonstrate that the extensive winter warming of the Northern Hemisphere in the late 1980s was represented in atmospheric, terrestrial, freshwater and marine systems to an extent not observed before or after the event within the studied time series. In 1989, abiotic variables displayed statistically significant regime shifts in atmospheric, river and marine systems, but not in lake and bog systems. This was followed by regime shifts in the biotic time series of bogs and marine ecosystems in 1990. However, many biotic time series lacked regime shifts, or the shifts were uncoupled from large-scale atmospheric circulation. We suggest that the latter is possibly due to complex and temporally variable interactions between abiotic and biotic elements with ecosystem properties buffering biotic responses to climate change signals, as well as being affected by concurrent anthropogenic impacts on natural environments