Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe

We discuss potential transitions of six climatic subsystems with large-scale impact on Europe, sometimes denoted as tipping elements. These are the ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Arctic sea ice, Alpine glaciers and northern hemisphere stratospheric ozone. Each system is represented by co-authors actively publishing in the corresponding field. For each subsystem we summarize the mechanism of a potential transition in a warmer climate along with its impact on Europe and assess the likelihood for such a transition based on published scientific literature. As a summary, the ‘tipping’ potential for each system is provided as a function of global mean temperature increase which required some subjective interpretation of scientific facts by the authors and should be considered as a snapshot of our current understanding. <br/

Structure-based design of a bromodomain and extraterminal domain (BET) inhibitor selective for the N-terminal bromodomains that retains an anti-inflammatory and antiproliferative phenotype

The bromodomain and extraterminal domain (BET) family of epigenetic regulators comprises four proteins (BRD2, BRD3, BRD4, BRDT), each containing tandem bromodomains. To date, small molecule inhibitors of these proteins typically bind all eight bromodomains of the family with similar affinity, resulting in a diverse range of biological effects. To enable further understanding of the broad phenotype characteristic of pan-BET inhibition, the development of inhibitors selective for individual, or sets of, bromodomains within the family is required. In this regard, we report the discovery of a potent probe molecule possessing up to 150-fold selectivity for the N-terminal bromodomains (BD1s) over the C-terminal bromodomains (BD2s) of the BETs. Guided by structural information, a specific amino acid difference between BD1 and BD2 domains was targeted for selective interaction with chemical functionality appended to the previously developed I-BET151 scaffold. Data presented herein demonstrate that selective inhibition of BD1 domains is sufficient to drive anti-inflammatory and antiproliferative effects

State of the climate in 2018

In 2018, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s atmosphere—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—continued their increase. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth’s surface was 407.4 ± 0.1 ppm, the highest in the modern instrumental record and in ice core records dating back 800 000 years. Combined, greenhouse gases and several halogenated gases contribute just over 3 W m−2 to radiative forcing and represent a nearly 43% increase since 1990. Carbon dioxide is responsible for about 65% of this radiative forcing. With a weak La Niña in early 2018 transitioning to a weak El Niño by the year’s end, the global surface (land and ocean) temperature was the fourth highest on record, with only 2015 through 2017 being warmer. Several European countries reported record high annual temperatures. There were also more high, and fewer low, temperature extremes than in nearly all of the 68-year extremes record. Madagascar recorded a record daily temperature of 40.5°C in Morondava in March, while South Korea set its record high of 41.0°C in August in Hongcheon. Nawabshah, Pakistan, recorded its highest temperature of 50.2°C, which may be a new daily world record for April. Globally, the annual lower troposphere temperature was third to seventh highest, depending on the dataset analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was approximately fifth lowest. The 2018 Arctic land surface temperature was 1.2°C above the 1981–2010 average, tying for third highest in the 118-year record, following 2016 and 2017. June’s Arctic snow cover extent was almost half of what it was 35 years ago. Across Greenland, however, regional summer temperatures were generally below or near average. Additionally, a satellite survey of 47 glaciers in Greenland indicated a net increase in area for the first time since records began in 1999. Increasing permafrost temperatures were reported at most observation sites in the Arctic, with the overall increase of 0.1°–0.2°C between 2017 and 2018 being comparable to the highest rate of warming ever observed in the region. On 17 March, Arctic sea ice extent marked the second smallest annual maximum in the 38-year record, larger than only 2017. The minimum extent in 2018 was reached on 19 September and again on 23 September, tying 2008 and 2010 for the sixth lowest extent on record. The 23 September date tied 1997 as the latest sea ice minimum date on record. First-year ice now dominates the ice cover, comprising 77% of the March 2018 ice pack compared to 55% during the 1980s. Because thinner, younger ice is more vulnerable to melting out in summer, this shift in sea ice age has contributed to the decreasing trend in minimum ice extent. Regionally, Bering Sea ice extent was at record lows for almost the entire 2017/18 ice season. For the Antarctic continent as a whole, 2018 was warmer than average. On the highest points of the Antarctic Plateau, the automatic weather station Relay (74°S) broke or tied six monthly temperature records throughout the year, with August breaking its record by nearly 8°C. However, cool conditions in the western Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea sector contributed to a low melt season overall for 2017/18. High SSTs contributed to low summer sea ice extent in the Ross and Weddell Seas in 2018, underpinning the second lowest Antarctic summer minimum sea ice extent on record. Despite conducive conditions for its formation, the ozone hole at its maximum extent in September was near the 2000–18 mean, likely due to an ongoing slow decline in stratospheric chlorine monoxide concentration. Across the oceans, globally averaged SST decreased slightly since the record El Niño year of 2016 but was still far above the climatological mean. On average, SST is increasing at a rate of 0.10° ± 0.01°C decade−1 since 1950. The warming appeared largest in the tropical Indian Ocean and smallest in the North Pacific. The deeper ocean continues to warm year after year. For the seventh consecutive year, global annual mean sea level became the highest in the 26-year record, rising to 81 mm above the 1993 average. As anticipated in a warming climate, the hydrological cycle over the ocean is accelerating: dry regions are becoming drier and wet regions rainier. Closer to the equator, 95 named tropical storms were observed during 2018, well above the 1981–2010 average of 82. Eleven tropical cyclones reached Saffir–Simpson scale Category 5 intensity. North Atlantic Major Hurricane Michael’s landfall intensity of 140 kt was the fourth strongest for any continental U.S. hurricane landfall in the 168-year record. Michael caused more than 30 fatalities and $25 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages. In the western North Pacific, Super Typhoon Mangkhut led to 160 fatalities and$6 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages across the Philippines, Hong Kong, Macau, mainland China, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Tropical Storm Son-Tinh was responsible for 170 fatalities in Vietnam and Laos. Nearly all the islands of Micronesia experienced at least moderate impacts from various tropical cyclones. Across land, many areas around the globe received copious precipitation, notable at different time scales. Rodrigues and Réunion Island near southern Africa each reported their third wettest year on record. In Hawaii, 1262 mm precipitation at Waipā Gardens (Kauai) on 14–15 April set a new U.S. record for 24-h precipitation. In Brazil, the city of Belo Horizonte received nearly 75 mm of rain in just 20 minutes, nearly half its monthly average. Globally, fire activity during 2018 was the lowest since the start of the record in 1997, with a combined burned area of about 500 million hectares. This reinforced the long-term downward trend in fire emissions driven by changes in land use in frequently burning savannas. However, wildfires burned 3.5 million hectares across the United States, well above the 2000–10 average of 2.7 million hectares. Combined, U.S. wildfire damages for the 2017 and 2018 wildfire seasons exceeded $40 billion (U.S. dollars)

Searching for stochastic gravitational waves using data from the two colocated LIGO Hanford detectors

Searches for a stochastic gravitational-wave background (SGWB) using terrestrial detectors typically involve cross-correlating data from pairs of detectors. The sensitivity of such cross-correlation analyses depends, among other things, on the separation between the two detectors: the smaller the separation, the better the sensitivity. Hence, a colocated detector pair is more sensitive to a gravitational-wave background than a noncolocated detector pair. However, colocated detectors are also expected to suffer from correlated noise from instrumental and environmental effects that could contaminate the measurement of the background. Hence, methods to identify and mitigate the effects of correlated noise are necessary to achieve the potential increase in sensitivity of colocated detectors. Here we report on the first SGWB analysis using the two LIGO Hanford detectors and address the complications arising from correlated environmental noise. We apply correlated noise identification and mitigation techniques to data taken by the two LIGO Hanford detectors, H1 and H2, during LIGO’s fifth science run. At low frequencies, 40–460 Hz, we are unable to sufficiently mitigate the correlated noise to a level where we may confidently measure or bound the stochastic gravitational-wave signal. However, at high frequencies, 460–1000 Hz, these techniques are sufficient to set a 95% confidence level upper limit on the gravitational-wave energy density of Ω(f) < 7.7 × 10[superscript -4](f/900  Hz)[superscript 3], which improves on the previous upper limit by a factor of ~180. In doing so, we demonstrate techniques that will be useful for future searches using advanced detectors, where correlated noise (e.g., from global magnetic fields) may affect even widely separated detectors.National Science Foundation (U.S.)United States. National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationCarnegie TrustDavid & Lucile Packard FoundationAlfred P. Sloan Foundatio

Early Extubation Reduces Respiratory Complications and Hospital Length of Stay Following Repair of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms.

INTRODUCTION: Early extubation following cardiac surgery is associated with decreased hospital stay and resource savings with similar mortality and has led to the widespread use of early extubation protocols. In the Vascular Quality Initiative, there is significant regional variation in the frequency of extubation in the operating room (Endovascular (EVAR): 77–97%, Open: 30–70%) following repair of intact abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA). However, the effects extubation practices on patient outcomes after repair of AAAs are unclear. METHODS: All patients undergoing repair of an intact AAA in the Vascular Study Group of New England from 2003–2015 were evaluated. Patients undergoing concomitant procedures or conversions were excluded. Timing of extubation was stratified for EVAR (Operating Room, <12 hours, >12 hours) and open repair (Operating Room, <12 hours, 12–24 hours, >24 hours). Prolonged hospital stay was defined as >2 days following EVAR and >7 days following open repair. Univariate and multivariable analyses were completed, and independent predictors of extubation outside of the operating room were identified. RESULTS: 5774 patients were evaluated (EVAR: 4453, Open: 1321). Following both EVAR and open repair, respiratory complications, prolonged hospital stay, and discharge to a skilled nursing facility (SNF) increased with intubation time. After adjustment, the odds of complications increased with each 12-hour delay in extubation: respiratory (EVAR-OR: 4.3, 95% CI: 3.0–6.1; Open-OR: 1.8, 95% CI: 1.5–2.2), prolonged hospital stay (EVAR-OR: 2.7, 95% CI: 2.0–3.8; Open–OR: 1.3, 95% CI:1.1–1.4), and discharge to SNF (EVAR-OR: 2.0, 95% CI: 1.5–2.8; Open-1.4, 95% CI 1.1–1.6). Predictors of extubation outside of the operating room following EVAR included: increasing age (OR:1.5, 95% CI:1.2–1.8), congestive heart failure (CHF) (OR:1.9, 95% CI:1.2–3.0), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR: 2.0, 95% CI: 1.4–2.9), symptomatic aneurysm (OR: 3.8, 95% CI 2.3–5.7), and increasing diameter (OR: 1.01, 95% CI: 1.01–1.01). Following open repair increasing age (OR: 1.4, 95% CI: 1.1–1.6), CHF (OR: 1.8, 95% CI: 1.01–3.3), dialysis (OR: 2.8, 95% CI: 1.7–70), symptomatic aneurysm (OR 2.8, 95% CI: 1.9–4.3), and hospital practice patterns (OR: 1.01, 95% CI: 1.01–1.01) were predictive of extubation outside of the operating room. CONCLUSIONS: The benefits of early extubation in cardiac patients are also seen following AAA repair. Suitable patients should be extubated in the operating room to decrease respiratory complications, length of stay, and discharge to SNF. Early extubation protocols should be considered to reduce regional variation in extubation practices and improve patient outcomes