A Discrete Event Simulation model to evaluate the treatment pathways of patients with Cataract in the United Kingdom

Background The number of people affected by cataract in the United Kingdom (UK) is growing rapidly due to ageing population. As the only way to treat cataract is through surgery, there is a high demand for this type of surgery and figures indicate that it is the most performed type of surgery in the UK. The National Health Service (NHS), which provides free of charge care in the UK, is under huge financial pressure due to budget austerity in the last decade. As the number of people affected by the disease is expected to grow significantly in coming years, the aim of this study is to evaluate whether the introduction of new processes and medical technologies will enable cataract services to cope with the demand within the NHS funding constraints. Methods We developed a Discrete Event Simulation model representing the cataract services pathways at Leicester Royal Infirmary Hospital. The model was inputted with data from national and local sources as well as from a surgery demand forecasting model developed in the study. The model was verified and validated with the participation of the cataract services clinical and management teams. Results Four scenarios involving increased number of surgeries per half-day surgery theatre slot were simulated. Results indicate that the total number of surgeries per year could be increased by 40% at no extra cost. However, the rate of improvement decreases for increased number of surgeries per half-day surgery theatre slot due to a higher number of cancelled surgeries. Productivity is expected to improve as the total number of doctors and nurses hours will increase by 5 and 12% respectively. However, non-human resources such as pre-surgery rooms and post-surgery recovery chairs are under-utilized across all scenarios. Conclusions Using new processes and medical technologies for cataract surgery is a promising way to deal with the expected higher demand especially as this could be achieved with limited impact on costs. Non-human resources capacity need to be evenly levelled across the surgery pathway to improve their utilisation. The performance of cataract services could be improved by better communication with and proactive management of patients.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Assessing the impact and cost-effectiveness of needle and syringe provision and opioid substitution therapy on hepatitis C transmission among people who inject drugs in the UK: an analysis of pooled data sets and economic modelling

Background There is limited evidence of the impact of needle and syringe programmes (NSPs) and opioid substitution therapy (OST) on hepatitis C virus (HCV) incidence among people who inject drugs (PWID), nor have there been any economic evaluations. Objective(s) To measure (1) the impact of NSP and OST, (2) changes in the extent of provision of both interventions, and (3) costs and cost-effectiveness of NSPs on HCV infection transmission. Design We conducted (1) a systematic review; (2) an analysis of existing data sets, including collating costs of NSPs; and (3) a dynamic deterministic model to estimate the impact of differing OST/NSP intervention coverage levels for reducing HCV infection prevalence, incidence and disease burden, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios to measure the cost-effectiveness of current NSP provision versus no provision. Setting Cost-effectiveness analysis and impact modelling in three UK sites. The pooled analysis drew on data from the UK and Australia. The review was international. Participants PWID. Interventions NSP coverage (proportion of injections covered by clean needles) and OST. Outcome New cases of HCV infection. Results The review suggested that OST reduced the risk of HCV infection acquisition by 50% [rate ratio (RR) 0.50, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.40 to 0.63]. Weaker evidence was found in areas of high (≥ 100%) NSP coverage (RR 0.77, 95% CI 0.38 to 1.54) internationally. There was moderate evidence for combined high coverage of NSPs and OST (RR 0.29, 95% CI 0.13 to 0.65). The pooled analysis showed that combined high coverage of NSPs and OST reduced the risk of HCV infection acquisition by 29–71% compared with those on minimal harm reduction (no OST, ≤ 100% NSP coverage). NSPs are likely to be cost-effective and are cost-saving in some settings. The impact modelling suggest that removing OST (current coverage 81%) and NSPs (coverage 54%) in one site would increase HCV infection incidence by 329% [95% credible interval (CrI) 110% to 953%] in 2031 and at least double (132% increase; 95% CrI 51% to 306%) the number of new infections over 15 years. Increasing NSP coverage to 80% has the largest impact in the site with the lowest current NSP coverage (35%), resulting in a 27% (95% CrI 7% to 43%) decrease in new infections and 41% (95% CrI 11% to 72%) decrease in incidence by 2031 compared with 2016. Addressing homelessness and reducing the harm associated with the injection of crack cocaine could avert approximately 60% of HCV infections over the next 15 years. Limitations Findings are limited by the misclassification of NSP coverage and the simplified intervention definition that fails to capture the integrated services that address other social and health needs as part of this. Conclusions There is moderate evidence of the effectiveness of OST and NSPs, especially in combination, on HCV infection acquisition risk. Policies to ensure that NSPs can be accessed alongside OST are needed. NSPs are cost-saving in some sites and cost-effective in others. NSPs and OST are likely to prevent considerable rates of HCV infection in the UK. Increasing NSP coverage will have most impact in settings with low coverage. Scaling up other interventions such as HCV infection treatment are needed to decrease epidemics to low levels in higher prevalence settings. Future work To understand the mechanisms through which NSPs and OST achieve their effect and the optimum contexts to support implementation. Funding The National Institute for Health Research Public Health Research programme. </jats:sec

Suicide in an ageing UK population: problems and prevention

Purpose Suicide can be an emotive, and at times, controversial subject. The purpose of this paper is to reflect on the social, health, personal, and cultural issues that can arise in later life and the potential reasons for suicide. It will analyse already recognised risk factors of suicide in older adults and focus on improving knowledge about the social meaning and causation of suicide for older people. It will also consider suicide prevention policies, their practice implications, and whether they are successful in protecting this potentially vulnerable cohort. Design/methodology/approach A synopsis of available literature in the form of a general review paper of suicide of older adults. Findings There is evidence that the ageing process often leads to a set of co-morbidities and a complex and diverse set of individual challenges. This in turn equates to an increased risk of suicide. There is no easy answer to why there is evidence of a growing number of older adults deciding that suicide is there only option, and even fewer suggestions on how to manage this risk. Social implications The entry of the “baby boom” generation into retirement will lead to the potential of an increase in both suicide risk factors and older adults completing suicide. This is on the background of a demographic surge which is likely to place additional pressures on already under-resourced, and undervalued, statutory and non-statutory services. Originality/value A literature search found very little information regarding older adults and suicide risk, assessment, treatment or prevention. </jats:sec

Eligibility criteria for social services for older people in England Research briefing

SIGLEAvailable from British Library Document Supply Centre-DSC:m00/27731 / BLDSC - British Library Document Supply CentreGBUnited Kingdo

Assessment in continuing care homes Towards a national standard instrument

SIGLEAvailable from British Library Document Supply Centre-DSC:96/33030 / BLDSC - British Library Document Supply CentreGBUnited Kingdo

Demand for long-term care Projections of long-term care finance for elderly people

SIGLEAvailable from British Library Document Supply Centre-DSC:7731.20015(Jan 1999) / BLDSC - British Library Document Supply CentreGBUnited Kingdo

Synthetic estimation methods for resource allocation formulae

SIGLEAvailable from British Library Document Supply Centre-DSC:6945.965(1203/3) / BLDSC - British Library Document Supply CentreGBUnited Kingdo