Waveform accuracy and systematic uncertainties in current gravitational wave observations

The post-Newtonian formalism plays an integral role in the models used to extract information from gravitational wave data, but models that incorporate this formalism are inherently approximations. Disagreement between an approximate model and nature will produce mismodeling biases in the parameters inferred from data, introducing systematic error. We here carry out a proof-of-principle study of such systematic error by considering signals produced by quasi-circular, inspiraling black hole binaries through an injection and recovery campaign. In particular, we study how unknown, but calibrated, higher-order post-Newtonian corrections to the gravitational wave phase impact systematic error in recovered parameters. As a first study, we produce injected data of non-spinning binaries as detected by a current, second-generation network of ground-based observatories and recover them with models of varying PN order in the phase. We find that the truncation of higher order (>3.5) post-Newtonian corrections to the phase can produce significant systematic error even at signal-to-noise ratios of current detector networks. We propose a method to mitigate systematic error by marginalizing over our ignorance in the waveform through the inclusion of higher-order post-Newtonian coefficients as new model parameters. We show that this method can reduce systematic error greatly at the cost of increasing statistical error.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figure

The p68 and p72 DEAD box RNA helicases interact with HDAC1 and repress transcription in a promoter-specific manner

BACKGROUND: p68 (Ddx5) and p72 (Ddx17) are highly related members of the DEAD box family and are established RNA helicases. They have been implicated in growth regulation and have been shown to be involved in both pre-mRNA and pre-rRNA processing. More recently, however, these proteins have been reported to act as transcriptional co-activators for estrogen-receptor alpha (ERα). Furthermore these proteins were shown to interact with co-activators p300/CBP and the RNA polymerase II holoenzyme. Taken together these reports suggest a role for p68 and p72 in transcriptional activation. RESULTS: In this report we show that p68 and p72 can, in some contexts, act as transcriptional repressors. Targeting of p68 or p72 to constitutive promoters leads to repression of transcription; this repression is promoter-specific. Moreover both p68 and p72 associate with histone deacetylase 1 (HDAC1), a well-established transcriptional repression protein. CONCLUSIONS: It is therefore clear that p68 and p72 are important transcriptional regulators, functioning as co-activators and/or co-repressors depending on the context of the promoter and the transcriptional complex in which they exist

Changes in immune cell populations in the periphery and liver of GBV-B-infected and convalescent tamarins (Saguinus labiatus)

AbstractFlaviviruses related to hepatitis C virus (HCV) in suitable animal models may provide further insight into the role that cellular immunity contributes to spontaneous clearance of HCV. We characterised changes in lymphocyte populations in tamarins with an acute GBV-B infection, a hepatitis virus of the flaviviridae. Major immune cell populations were monitored in peripheral and intra-hepatic lymphocytes at high viraemia or following a period when peripheral virus was no longer detected. Limited changes in major lymphocyte populations were apparent during high viraemia; however, the proportions of CD3+ lymphocytes decreased and CD20+ lymphocytes increased once peripheral viraemia became undetectable. Intrahepatic lymphocyte populations increased at both time points post-infection. Distinct expression patterns of PD-1, a marker of T-cell activation, were observed on peripheral and hepatic lymphocytes; notably there was elevated PD-1 expression on hepatic CD4+ T-cells during high viraemia, suggesting an activated phenotype, which decreased following clearance of peripheral viraemia. At times when peripheral vRNA was not detected, suggesting viral clearance, we were able to readily detect GBV-B RNA in the liver, indicative of long-term virus replication. This study is the first description of changes in lymphocyte populations during GBV-B infection of tamarins and provides a foundation for more detailed investigations of the responses that contribute to the control of GBV-B infection

The Impact of Dietary Folate Intake on Reproductive Function in Premenopausal Women: A Prospective Cohort Study

Background: Folic acid is recommended to reproductive-aged women to prevent birth defects, though little is known about the effects of dietary intake on other reproductive outcomes. Improved pregnancy rates have been documented after folic acid supplement use, suggesting a possible link with ovulation, however research is limited. Our objective was to evaluate the association between dietary folate intake, hormone levels, and sporadic anovulation in healthy, regularly menstruating women. Methodology/Principal Findings: The BioCycle study (2005–2007) prospectively followed 259 healthy women aged 18–44 years from the western New York region for up to 2 menstrual cycles. Total folate and specific sources of folate were assessed up to 4 times per cycle by 24-hour recall. Estradiol, progesterone, luteinizing hormone, and follicle-stimulating hormone were measured in serum up to 8 times per cycle, timed using fertility monitors. Anovulation was defined as a cycle with peak progesterone concentration ≤5 ng/mL and no LH peak in the mid/late luteal phase. Higher intake of dietary folate (in dietary equivalents) across tertiles had a marginally significant association with greater luteal progesterone levels (P trend 0.08). Higher intake of synthetic folate was significantly associated with higher luteal progesterone levels (P trend 0.05). Specifically, women in the 3rd tertile of synthetic folate intake had, on average, 16.0% (95% CI, 0.5–33.8%) higher luteal progesterone levels compared to women in the 1st tertile. Moreover, consumption of synthetic folate was significantly and inversely associated with anovulation such that women in the 3rd tertile had a 64% (95% CI, 8–86%) decreased odds of anovulation compared to the women in the 1st tertile (P trend 0.03). Conclusions/Significance: These findings suggest that a diet high in synthetic folate may be associated with increased progesterone levels and lower risk of sporadic anovulation. Further study of the effect of dietary folate and folic acid supplement use on reproductive health is warranted

Projected marine heatwaves in the 21st century and the potential for ecological impact

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are extreme climatic events in oceanic systems that can have devastating impacts on ecosystems, causing abrupt ecological changes and socioeconomic consequences. Several prominent MHWs have attracted scientific and public interest, and recent assessments have documented global and regional increases in their frequency. However, for proactive marine management, it is critical to understand how patterns might change in the future. Here, we estimate future changes in MHWs to the end of the 21st century, as simulated by the CMIP5 global climate model projections. Significant increases in MHW intensity and count of annual MHW days are projected to accelerate, with many parts of the ocean reaching a near-permanent MHW state by the late 21st century. The two greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios considered (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5) strongly affect the projected intensity of MHW events, the proportion of the globe exposed to permanent MHW states, and the occurrence of the most extreme MHW events. Comparison with simulations of a natural world, without anthropogenic forcing, indicate that these trends have emerged from the expected range of natural variability within the first half of the 21st century. This discrepancy implies a degree of “anthropogenic emergence,” with a departure from the natural MHW conditions that have previously shaped marine ecosystems for centuries or even millennia. Based on these projections we expect impacts on marine ecosystems to be widespread, significant and persistent through the 21st century.This research was supported by the Australian Research Council grants CE170100023 and FT170100106, Natural Environment Research Council International Opportunity Fund NE/N00678X/1, National Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Discovery Grant RGPIN-2018-05255, and Brian Mason (Impacts of an unprecedented marine heatwave). This project was partially supported through funding from the Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub of the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Prevalence of Abnormal Lipid Profiles and the Relationship With the Development of Microalbuminuria in Adolescents With Type 1 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE: To explore the prevalence of lipid abnormalities and their relationship with albumin excretion and microalbuminuria in adolescents with type 1 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The study population comprised 895 young subjects with type 1 diabetes (490 males); median age at the baseline assessment was 14.5 years (range 10-21.1), and median diabetes duration was 4.8 years (0.2-17). A total of 2,194 nonfasting blood samples were collected longitudinally for determination of total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, TG, and non-HDL cholesterol. Additional annually collected data on anthropometric parameters, A1C, and albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) were available. RESULTS: Total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, and non-HDL cholesterol were higher in females than in males (all P 5.2 mmol/l (18.6%), non-HDL cholesterol >3.4 mmol/l (25.9%), TG >1.7 mmol/l (20.1%), and LDL cholesterol >3.4 mmol/l (9.6%). Age and duration were significantly related to all lipid parameters (P < 0.001); A1C was independently related to all parameters (P < 0.001) except HDL cholesterol, whereas BMI SD scores were related to all parameters (P < 0.05) except total cholesterol. Total cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol were independently related to longitudinal changes in ACR (B coefficient +/- SE): 0.03 +/- 0.01/1 mmol/l, P = 0.009, and 0.32 +/- 0.014/1 mmol/l, P = 0.02, respectively. Overall mean total cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol were higher in microalbuminuria positive (n = 115) than in normoalbuminuric subjects (n = 780): total cholesterol 4.7 +/- 1.2 vs. 4.5 +/- 0.8 mmol/l (P = 0.04) and non-HDL cholesterol 3.2 +/- 1.2 vs. 2.9 +/- 0.8 mmol/l (P = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: In this longitudinal study of adolescents with type 1 diabetes, sustained lipid abnormalities were related to age, duration, BMI, and A1C. Furthermore, ACR was related to both total cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, indicating a potential role in the pathogenesis of diabetic nephropathy

A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have been observed around the world and are expected to increase in intensity and frequency under anthropogenic climate change. A variety of impacts have been associated with these anomalous events, including shifts in species ranges, local extinctions and economic impacts on seafood industries through declines in important fishery species and impacts on aquaculture. Extreme temperatures are increasingly seen as important influences on biological systems, yet a consistent definition of MHWs does not exist. A clear definition will facilitate retrospective comparisons between MHWs, enabling the synthesis and a mechanistic understanding of the role of MHWs in marine ecosystems. Building on research into atmospheric heatwaves, we propose both a general and specific definition for MHWs, based on a hierarchy of metrics that allow for different data sets to be used in identifying MHWs. We generally define a MHW as a prolonged discrete anomalously warm water event that can be described by its duration, intensity, rate of evolution, and spatial extent. Specifically, we consider an anomalously warm event to be a MHW if it lasts for five or more days, with temperatures warmer than the 90th percentile based on a 30-year historical baseline period. This structure provides flexibility with regard to the description of MHWs and transparency in communicating MHWs to a general audience. The use of these metrics is illustrated for three 21st century MHWs; the northern Mediterranean event in 2003, the Western Australia ‘Ningaloo Niño’ in 2011, and the northwest Atlantic event in 2012. We recommend a specific quantitative definition for MHWs to facilitate global comparisons and to advance our understanding of these phenomena

A global assessment of marine heatwaves and their drivers

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) can cause devastating impacts to marine life. Despite the serious consequences of MHWs, our understanding of their drivers is largely based on isolated case studies rather than any systematic unifying assessment. Here we provide the first global assessment under a consistent framework by combining a confidence assessment of the historical refereed literature from 1950 to February 2016, together with the analysis of MHWs determined from daily satellite sea surface temperatures from 1982–2016, to identify the important local processes, large-scale climate modes and teleconnections that are associated with MHWs regionally. Clear patterns emerge, including coherent relationships between enhanced or suppressed MHW occurrences with the dominant climate modes across most regions of the globe – an important exception being western boundary current regions where reports of MHW events are few and ocean-climate relationships are complex. These results provide a global baseline for future MHW process and prediction studies

Marine heatwaves threaten global biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services

The global ocean has warmed substantially over the past century, with far-reaching implications for marine ecosystems 1 . Concurrent with long-term persistent warming, discrete periods of extreme regional ocean warming (marine heatwaves, MHWs) have increased in frequency 2 . Here we quantify trends and attributes of MHWs across all ocean basins and examine their biological impacts from species to ecosystems. Multiple regions in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans are particularly vulnerable to MHW intensification, due to the co-existence of high levels of biodiversity, a prevalence of species found at their warm range edges or concurrent non-climatic human impacts. The physical attributes of prominent MHWs varied considerably, but all had deleterious impacts across a range of biological processes and taxa, including critical foundation species (corals, seagrasses and kelps). MHWs, which will probably intensify with anthropogenic climate change 3 , are rapidly emerging as forceful agents of disturbance with the capacity to restructure entire ecosystems and disrupt the provision of ecological goods and services in coming decades. © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited