COMPREHENSIVE FORECASTING AND PROJECTION MODELS IN THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE

ERS provides economic information on the near-term agricultural outlook and on longrun projections. Here is an overview of efforts to improve such information through comprehensive quantitative models. The various models incorporate intercommodity relationships within agriculture, aggregate farm price and income levels, interactions between the farm and nonfarm economies, natural resources, environmental considerations, and foreign markets

Disinvesting in the City

Tax foreclosure offers an opportunity to investigate processes of disinvestment in the city. Prior research has not considered how tax foreclosure administration protects or further damages neighborhoods where foreclosure occurs. Detroit’s loss of households led to disinvestment in housing and demolition of structures. In addition, at each of the three stages of property foreclosure and disposition, implementers took actions that promised to encourage disinvestment in property by facilitating the spread of blight and encouraging negative externalities. This occurred because (1) foreclosures took many owner-occupied properties; (2) the sale of properties to government entities was small and did not promote reuse; and (3) the foreclosure auctions disadvantaged purchasers who would become owner-occupants, channeled properties in strong neighborhoods to investors at low prices, and sold properties disproportionately to destructive buyers