Seismic Hazard Assessment and Its Uncertainty for the Central Part of Northern Algeria

This study presents a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the central part of northern Algeria using two complementary seismic models: a fault-based model and a gridded seismicity model. Two ground-motion attenuation equations were chosen using the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center Next-Generation models, as well as local and regional ones. The ranking method was used to assess their ability to gather accurate data. To account for epistemic uncertainty in both components of the assessment, the seismic hazard was computed using a logic tree approach. Expert judgment and data testing were used to evaluate the weights assigned to individual ground-motion prediction equations. The seismic hazard maps depicted the obtained results in terms of spectral accelerations at oscillation periods of 0.0, 0.2, and 1.0 s, with 10% and 5% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years, and for soil types B, B/C, C, and C/D, as defined by the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program. From the analysis, the uncertainty is expressed as both a 95% confidence band and the coefficient of variation (COV). Annual frequencies of exceedance and hazard curves were estimated for the selected cities, as well as uniform hazard spectra for the previously quoted probabilities of exceedance and the soil types considered. Peak ground acceleration values of 0.44±0.17 g and 0.38±0.06 g were reported for the B/C soil type in the cities of Algiers and Blida, respectively, for a return period of 475 years. Seismic maps for the selected return periods depicting the classification of the estimated values are also displayed in terms of very high, high, medium, low and very low degrees of reliability. Furthermore, a seismic hazard disaggregation analysis in terms of magnitude, distance, and azimuth was carried out. The primary goal of such analyses is to determine the relative contribution of different seismic foci and sources to seismic hazard at specific locations. Thus, for each studied city, for the considered return periods and for the soil type B/C, the so-called control or modal earthquake was estimated. At Algiers, events with magnitudes Mw 5.0–5.5 and distances of less than 10 km contribute the most to the mean seismic hazard over a 475-year period. However, for the same return period, those events with Mw 7.0–7.5 and located between 10 and 20 km away contribute the most to the seismic hazard at Tipaza

La "máquina" o "generador" de terremotos en un laboratorio universitario

La máquina o generador de terremotos es un dispositivo experimental que trata de modelizar el comportamiento de una falla. En la actividad propuesta, se le muestra al alumnado la complejidad de ciertos sistemas, así como la dificultad de predecir su comportamiento. Aunque inicialmente se postuló como un experimento abierto dirigido a estudiantes de enseñanza secundaria y bachillerato, la calidad de los datos que pueden obtenerse permite que pueda plantearse como un experimento en unlaboratorio universitario de ciencias de la Tierra. Los datos obtenidos en una experiencia de este tipo pueden ser equiparables, en cierto sentido, a los datos obtenidos por redes sísmicas regionales, en especial, los datos referentes a la sismicidad generada por una falla o sistema de fallas, en términos de magnitud, tiempo y caída de esfuerzos. Eso sí, con la clara ventaja de que en pocos minutos puede reproducirse lo que serían cientos o miles de años de acción de las fuerzas tectónicas. En función del nivel del curso en el que se proponga dicha experiencia, planteándose en este caso como una experiencia cerrada centrada en la obtención de determinados resultados, se pueden utilizar diferentes análisis de datos, fundamentalmente de tipo estadístico. Estos análisis permitirán conocer el nivel de predictibilidad de un modelo de estas características. Este trabajo plantea diferentes métodos y analiza los resultados que pueden obtenerse con este modelo mecánic

Dispersive calculation of complex Regge trajectories for the lightest f_2 resonances and the K^∗(892)

We apply a recently developed dispersive formalism to calculate the Regge trajectories of the f_2(1270), f´_ 2(1525) and K^∗(892) mesons. Trajectories are calculated, not fitted to a family of resonances. Assuming that these resonances can be treated in the elastic approximation, the only input are the pole position and residue of a resonance. In all three cases, the predicted Regge trajectories are almost real and linear, with slopes in agreement with the universal value of order 1 GeV_(−2). We also show how these results barely change when considering more than two subtractions in the dispersive formalism

Investigation of a0-f0 mixing

We investigate the isospin-violating mixing of the light scalar mesons a0(980) and f0(980) within the unitarized chiral approach. Isospin-violating effects are considered to leading order in the quark mass differences and electromagnetism. In this approach both mesons are generated through meson-meson dynamics. Our results provide a description of the mixing phenomenon within a framework consistent with chiral symmetry and unitarity, where these resonances are not predominantly q q-bar states. Amongst the possible experimental signals, we discuss observable consequences for the reaction J/Psi -> phi pi0 eta in detail. In particular we demonstrate that the effect of a0-f0 mixing is by far the most important isospin-breaking effect in the resonance region and can indeed be extracted from experiment.Comment: 15 pages, 9 figures; discussion extended, title changed, version published in Phys. Rev.

Earthquake Magnitude and Frequency Forecasting in Northeastern Algeria using Time Series Analysis

This study uses two different time series forecasting approaches (parametric and non-parametric) to assess a frequency and magnitude forecasting of earthquakes above Mw 4.0 in Northeastern Algeria. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model encompasses the parametric approach, while the non-parametric method employs the Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) approach. The ARIMA and SSA models were then used to train and forecast the annual number of earthquakes and annual maximum magnitude events occurring in Northeastern Algeria between 1910 and 2019, including 287 main events larger than Mw 4.0. The SSA method is used as a forecasting algorithm in this case, and the results are compared to those obtained by the ARIMA model. Based on the root mean square error (RMSE) criterion, the SSA forecasting model appears to be more appropriate than the ARIMA model. The consistency between the observation and the forecast is analyzed using a statistical test in terms of the total number of events, denoted as N-test. As a result, the findings indicate that the annual maximum magnitude in Northeastern Algeria between 2020 and 2030 will range from Mw 4.8 to Mw 5.1, while between four and six events with a magnitude of at least Mw 4.0 will occur annually

Fast CP Violation

$B$ flavor tagging will be extensively studied at the asymmetric $B$ factories due to its importance in CP asymmetry measurements. The primary tagging modes are the semileptonic decays of the $b$ (lepton tag), or the hadronic $b \to c (\to s)$ decays (kaon tag). We suggest that looking for time dependent CP asymmetries in events where one $B$ is tagged leptonically and the other one is tagged with a kaon could result in an early detection of CP violation. Although in the Standard Model these asymmetries are expected to be small, $\sim 1$, they could be measured with about the same amount of data as in the ``gold-plated'' decay $B_d \to \psi K_S$. In the presence of physics beyond the Standard Model, these asymmetries could be as large as $\sim 5$, and the first CP violation signal in the $B$ system may show up in these events. We give explicit examples of new physics scenarios where this occurs.Comment: 9 pages, revtex, no figures. Discussion of new physics effects on CP violation with two lepton tags expanded. Factors of 2 correcte

SU(3) Chiral approach to meson and baryon dynamics

We report on recent progress on the chiral unitary approach, which is shown to have a much larger convergence radius than ordinary chiral perturbation theory, allowing one to reproduce data for meson meson interaction up to 1.2 GeV and meson baryon interaction up to the first baryonic resonances. Applications to physical processes so far unsuited for a standard chiral perturbative approach are presented, concretely the K⁻ p → Λ(1405) γ reaction and the N*(1535) N+(1535) π and η couplings

Erratum: Meson-meson interactions in a nonperturbative chiral approach

©2007 The American Physical Society.Depto. de Física TeóricaFac. de Ciencias FísicasTRUEpu

Prospección gravimétrica en la terminación norte del frente montañoso de las Béticas

Se ha realizado una prospección gravimétrica en una región en el límite más septentrional de la Cordillera Bética, justo al oeste de la ciudad de Jaén. Comprende una superficie aproximada de unos 25 km2, en la cual pueden observarse tres conjuntos de materiales litológica y estructuralmente bien diferenciados, representativos del margen sur de la Cuenca alta del Guadalquivir. De norte a sur, estos conjuntos son la denominada Unidad Olistostrómica, margas y conglomerados del Serravaliense-Tortoniense, y por último, las Unidades Prebéticas. Además de establecer la metodología para este tipo de estudios, con este ensayo se buscaba el poder diferenciar los dominios geológicos desde un punto de vista gravimétrico. Los resultados obtenidos, aunque de gran calidad, no han permitido hacer inferencias definitivas al respecto. Se observa, por ejemplo, una neta variación de la anomalía de la gravedad en dirección NW-SE, pero creemos que asociada, en principio, a factores puramente isostáticos. En concreto, al aumento del espesor de la corteza bajo las Cordilleras Béticas, con un mínimo de la anomalía de la gravedad aproximadamente bajo las estribaciones de Sierra Nevada. Posteriores estudios, en donde se densifiquen las medidas y se extienda la zona de estudio, quizás lleguen a mostrar la variación buscada en el caso en que ésta sea significativa