The long memory model of political support: some further results

This paper extends the results of Byers, Davidson and Peel (1997) on long memory in support for the Conservative and Labour Parties in the UK using longer samples and additional poll series. It finds continuing support for the ARFIMA(0,d,0) model though with somewhat smaller values of the long memory parameter. We find that the move to telephone polling in the mid-1990s has no apparent effect on the estimated value of d for either party. Finally, we find that we cannot reject the hypotheses that the parties share a common long memory parameter which we estimate at around 0.65.

The Significance of Culture for Development Studies

SUMMARY Though many arguments for the role of cultural factors in development have been circular or ideological, development is necessarily a culturally determined process. It is an attempt to realize certain aspirations which, however universal, are still held in the context of other goals particular to national or religious traditions which the subjects of development wish to preserve. Cultures also provide particular institutional means (sex roles, forms of organization, etc.) of development. As a precipitate of history, culture also includes people's ideas about the conditions of development itself. If we are seriously to engage with the subjects of development, these above all cannot be ignored. RESUME L'Impact de la Tradition Culturelle sur le Développement Si maintes arguments apportés a l'appui du rôle culturel dans le développement sont de nature péremptoire ou idéologique, le processus de développement reste essentiellement conditionné par la culture. Ce processus vise à la réalisation de certaines aspirations, si universelles qu'elles soient, qui demeurent toujours axées sur d'autres objectifs particuliers à la culture, nationale ou réligieuse que les intéressés en voie de développement tiennent à conserver. La culture inspire la forme des instruments institutionnels de développement (rôles sexuels, modèles d'organisation); sur le plan historique, elle représente les notions humaines sur la nature même du développement. Aucun chercheur sérieux, se consacrant à l'étude du développement ne peut se permettre d'ignorer ces considérations. RESUMEN La Importancia de la Cultura para los Estudios del Desarrollo Aunque es cierto que muchos de los argumentos relacionados con el rol de los factores culturales en el desarrollo han sido de carácter circular o ideológico, el desarrollo es por necesidad un proceso determinado culturalmente. Es un intento de llevar a cab o ciertas aspiraciones que, si bien son universales, están sin embargo envueltas en el contexto de otras metas, correspondientes a las tradiciones nacionales o religiosas que los sujetos del desarrollo desean preservar. Las diferentes culturas proveen además medios institucionales específicos para el desarrollo (rol de los sexos, formas de organización, etc. . . .). Como un precipitado de la historia, la cultura también incluye las ideas que la gente tiene acerca de las condiciones del desarrollo mismo. Si se trata de interesarse seriamente en los sujetos del desarrollo, éstos, por sobre todo, no pueden ser ignorados

Compression failure of angle-ply laminates

The present work deals with modes and mechanisms of failure in compression of angle-ply laminates. Experimental results were obtained from 42 angle-ply IM7/8551-7a specimens with a lay-up of ((plus or minus theta)/(plus or minus theta)) sub 6s where theta, the off-axis angle, ranged from 0 degrees to 90 degrees. The results showed four failure modes, these modes being a function of off-axis angle. Failure modes include fiber compression, inplane transverse tension, inplane shear, and inplane transverse compression. Excessive interlaminar shear strain was also considered as an important mode of failure. At low off-axis angles, experimentally observed values were considerably lower than published strengths. It was determined that laminate imperfections in the form of layer waviness could be a major factor in reducing compression strength. Previously developed linear buckling and geometrically nonlinear theories were used, with modifications and enhancements, to examine the influence of layer waviness on compression response. The wavy layer is described by a wave amplitude and a wave length. Linear elastic stress-strain response is assumed. The geometrically nonlinear theory, in conjunction with the maximum stress failure criterion, was used to predict compression failure and failure modes for the angle-ply laminates. A range of wave length and amplitudes were used. It was found that for 0 less than or equal to theta less than or equal to 15 degrees failure was most likely due to fiber compression. For 15 degrees less than theta less than or equal to 35 degrees, failure was most likely due to inplane transverse tension. For 35 degrees less than theta less than or equal to 70 degrees, failure was most likely due to inplane shear. For theta less than 70 degrees, failure was most likely due to inplane transverse compression. The fiber compression and transverse tension failure modes depended more heavily on wave length than on wave amplitude. Thus using a single parameter, such as a ratio of wave amplitude to wave length, to describe waviness in a laminate would be inaccurate. Throughout, results for AS4/3502, studied previously, are included for comparison. At low off-axis angles, the AS4/3502 material system was found to be less sensitive to layer waviness than IM7/8551-7a. Analytical predictions were also obtained for laminates with waviness in only some of the layers. For this type of waviness, laminate compression strength could also be considered a function of which layers in the laminate were wavy, and where those wavy layers were. Overall, the geometrically nonlinear model correlates well with experimental results

An examination of the precipitation delivery mechanisms for Dolleman Island, eastern Antarctic Peninsula

Copyright @ 2004 Wiley-BlackwellThe variability of size and source of significant precipitation events were studied at an Antarctic ice core drilling site: Dolleman Island (DI), located on the eastern coast of the Antarctic Peninsula. Significant precipitation events that occur at DI were temporally located in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) reanalysis data set, ERA-40. The annual and summer precipitation totals from ERA-40 at DI both show significant increases over the reanalysis period. Three-dimensional backwards air parcel trajectories were then run for 5 d using the ECMWF ERA-15 wind fields. Cluster analyses were performed on two sets of these backwards trajectories: all days in the range 1979–1992 (the climatological time-scale) and a subset of days when a significant precipitation event occurred. The principal air mass sources and delivery mechanisms were found to be the Weddell Sea via lee cyclogenesis, the South Atlantic when there was a weak circumpolar trough (CPT) and the South Pacific when the CPT was deep. The occurrence of precipitation bearing air masses arriving via a strong CPT was found to have a significant correlation with the southern annular mode (SAM); however, the arrival of air masses from the same region over the climatological time-scale showed no such correlation. Despite the dominance in both groups of back trajectories of the westerly circulation around Antarctica, some other key patterns were identified. Most notably there was a higher frequency of lee cyclogenesis events in the significant precipitation trajectories compared to the climatological time-scale. There was also a tendency for precipitation trajectories to come from more northerly latitudes, mostly from 50–70°S. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was found to have a strong influence on the mechanism by which the precipitation was delivered; the frequency of occurrence of precipitation from the east (west) of DI increased during El Niño (La Niña) events

Higher-Order Risk Preferences, Constant Relative Risk Aversion and the Optimal Portfolio Allocation

We derive the conditions for optimal portfolio choice within an expected utility framework considering alternative probability distributions that are able to capture the stylized features of asset returns at different degrees of accuracy. We show the importance of higher-order moments in the optimal decision on liquidity and relate them with the risk preference properties of riskiness, prudence and temperance

Flexible distribution functions, higher-order preferences and optimal portfolio allocation

In this paper we show that flexible probability distribution functions, in addition to been able to capture stylized facts of financial returns, can be used to identify pure higher-order effects of investors' optimizing behavior. We employ the five-parameter weighted generalized beta of the second kind distribution and other density functions nested within it to determine the conditions under which risk averse, prudent and temperate agents are diversifiers in the standard portfolio choice theory. Within this framework, we illustrate through comparative statics the economic significance of higher-order moments in return's distributions

An Exact No Free Lunch Theorem for Community Detection

A precondition for a No Free Lunch theorem is evaluation with a loss function which does not assume a priori superiority of some outputs over others. A previous result for community detection by Peel et al. (2017) relies on a mismatch between the loss function and the problem domain. The loss function computes an expectation over only a subset of the universe of possible outputs; thus, it is only asymptotically appropriate with respect to the problem size. By using the correct random model for the problem domain, we provide a stronger, exact No Free Lunch theorem for community detection. The claim generalizes to other set-partitioning tasks including core/periphery separation, $k$-clustering, and graph partitioning. Finally, we review the literature of proposed evaluation functions and identify functions which (perhaps with slight modifications) are compatible with an exact No Free Lunch theorem

Сила и ее проявление студентами ВГМУ

СИЛАМЫШЦЫСТУДЕНТЫ МЕДИЦИНСКИХ УЧЕБНЫХ ЗАВЕДЕНИ

Ramon Sarró, The Politics of Religious Change on The Upper Guinea Coast: Iconoclasm Done and Undone

Ramon Sarró’s The Politics of Religious Change on the Upper Guinea Coast – which was originally meant to be known by its subtitle Iconoclasm Done and Undone – is No. 38 in the International African Library (IAL), the monograph series of the International African Institute (IAI). Its aim is to publish high-quality ethnography, and it is in the light of the changing requirements for ethnographic writing that I shall comment on Sarró’s book. The IAI is the oldest continuous outlet for the public..

Our Peculiar Motion Away from the Local Void

The peculiar velocity of the Local Group of galaxies manifested in the Cosmic Microwave Background dipole is found to decompose into three dominant components. The three components are clearly separated because they arise on distinct spatial scales and are fortuitously almost orthogonal in their influences. The nearest, which is distinguished by a velocity discontinuity at ~7 Mpc, arises from the evacuation of the Local Void. We lie in the Local Sheet that bounds the void. Random motions within the Local Sheet are small. Our Galaxy participates in the bulk motion of the Local Sheet away from the Local Void. The component of our motion on an intermediate scale is attributed to the Virgo Cluster and its surroundings, 17 Mpc away. The third and largest component is an attraction on scales larger than 3000 km/s and centered near the direction of the Centaurus Cluster. The amplitudes of the three components are 259, 185, and 455 km/s, respectively, adding collectively to 631 km/s in the reference frame of the Local Sheet. Taking the nearby influences into account causes the residual attributed to large scales to align with observed concentrations of distant galaxies and reduces somewhat the amplitude of motion attributed to their pull. On small scales, in addition to the motion of our Local Sheet away from the Local Void, the nearest adjacent filament, the Leo Spur, is seen to be moving in a direction that will lead to convergence with our filament. Finally, a good distance to an isolated galaxy within the Local Void reveals that this dwarf system has a motion of at least 230 km/s away from the void center. Given the velocities expected from gravitational instability theory in the standard cosmological paradigm, the distance to the center of the Local Void must be at least 23 Mpc from our position. The Local Void is large!Comment: Tentatively scheduled for Astrophysical Journal, 676 (March 20), 2008. 18 figures, 3 tables including web link for 2 tables, web links to 2 video