Planning for resilience in screening operations using discrete event simulation modeling: example of HPV testing in Peru

ABSTRACT: Background: The World Health Organization (WHO) has called for the elimination of cervical cancer. Unfortunately, the implementation of cost-effective prevention and control strategies has faced significant barriers, such as insufficient guidance on best practices for resource and operations planning. Therefore, we demonstrate the value of discrete event simulation (DES) in implementation science research and practice, particularly to support the programmatic and operational planning for sustainable and resilient delivery of healthcare interventions. Our specific example shows how DES models can inform planning for scale-up and resilient operations of a new HPV-based screen and treat program in Iquitos, an Amazonian city of Peru. Methods: Using data from a time and motion study and cervical cancer screening registry from Iquitos, Peru, we developed a DES model to conduct virtual experimentation with “what-if” scenarios that compare different workflow and processing strategies under resource constraints and disruptions to the screening system. Results: Our simulations show how much the screening system’s capacity can be increased at current resource levels, how much variability in service times can be tolerated, and the extent of resilience to disruptions such as curtailed resources. The simulations also identify the resources that would be required to scale up for larger target populations or increased resilience to disruptions, illustrating the key tradeoff between resilience and efficiency. Thus, our results demonstrate how DES models can inform specific resourcing decisions but can also highlight important tradeoffs and suggest general “rules” for resource and operational planning. Conclusions: Multilevel planning and implementation challenges are not unique to sustainable adoption of cervical cancer screening programs but represent common barriers to the successful scale-up of many preventative health interventions worldwide. DES represents a broadly applicable tool to address complex implementation challenges identified at the national, regional, and local levels across settings and health interventions—how to make effective and efficient operational and resourcing decisions to support program adaptation to local constraints and demands so that they are resilient to changing demands and more likely to be maintained with fidelity over time

Factors Associated with Correct and Consistent Insecticide Treated Curtain Use in Iquitos, Peru.

Dengue is an arthropod-borne virus of great public health importance, and control of its mosquito vectors is currently the only available method for prevention. Previous research has suggested that insecticide treated curtains (ITCs) can lower dengue vector infestations in houses. This observational study investigated individual and household-level socio-demographic factors associated with correct and consistent use of ITCs in Iquitos, Peru. A baseline knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) survey was administered to 1,333 study participants, and ITCs were then distributed to 593 households as part of a cluster-randomized trial. Follow up KAP surveys and ITC-monitoring checklists were conducted at 9, 18, and 27 months post-ITC distribution. At 9 months post-distribution, almost 70% of ITCs were hanging properly (e.g. hanging fully extended or tied up), particularly those hung on walls compared to other locations. Proper ITC hanging dropped at 18 months to 45.7%. The odds of hanging ITCs correctly and consistently were significantly greater among those participants who were housewives, knew three or more correct symptoms of dengue and at least one correct treatment for dengue, knew a relative or close friend who had had dengue, had children sleeping under a mosquito net, or perceived a change in the amount of mosquitoes in the home. Additionally, the odds of recommending ITCs in the future were significantly greater among those who perceived a change in the amount of mosquitoes in the home (e.g. perceived the ITCs to be effective). Despite various challenges associated with the sustained effectiveness of the selected ITCs, almost half of the ITCs were still hanging at 18 months, suggesting a feasible vector control strategy for sustained community use

Disease-driven Reduction in Human Mobility Influences Human-Mosquito Contacts and Dengue Transmission Dynamics

Heterogeneous exposure to mosquitoes determines an individual’s contribution to vector-borne pathogen transmission. Particularly for dengue virus (DENV), there is a major difficulty in quantifying human-vector contacts due to the unknown coupled effect of key heterogeneities. To test the hypothesis that the reduction of human out-of-home mobility due to dengue illness will significantly influence population-level dynamics and the structure of DENV transmission chains, we extended an existing modeling framework to include social structure, disease-driven mobility reductions, and heterogeneous transmissibility from different infectious groups. Compared to a baseline model, naïve to human pre-symptomatic infectiousness and disease-driven mobility changes, a model including both parameters predicted an increase of 37% in the probability of a DENV outbreak occurring; a model including mobility change alone predicted a 15.5% increase compared to the baseline model. At the individual level, models including mobility change led to a reduction of the importance of out-of-home onward transmission (R, the fraction of secondary cases predicted to be generated by an individual) by symptomatic individuals (up to -62%) at the expense of an increase in the relevance of their home (up to +40%). An individual’s positive contribution to R could be predicted by a GAM including a non-linear interaction between an individual’s biting suitability and the number of mosquitoes in their home (\u3e10 mosquitoes and 0.6 individual attractiveness significantly increased R). We conclude that the complex fabric of social relationships and differential behavioral response to dengue illness cause the fraction of symptomatic DENV infections to concentrate transmission in specific locations, whereas asymptomatic carriers (including individuals in their pre-symptomatic period) move the virus throughout the landscape. Our findings point to the difficulty of focusing vector control interventions reactively on the home of symptomatic individuals, as this approach will fail to contain virus propagation by visitors to their house and asymptomatic carriers

Calling in sick: Impacts of fever on intra-urban human mobility

© 2016 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved. Pathogens inflict a wide variety of disease manifestations on their hosts, yet the impacts of disease on the behaviour of infected hosts are rarely studied empirically and are seldom accounted for in mathematical models of transmission dynamics. We explored the potential impacts of one of the most common disease manifestations, fever, on a key determinant of pathogen transmission, host mobility, in residents of the Amazonian city of Iquitos, Peru. We did so by comparing two groups of febrile individuals (dengue-positive and dengue-negative) with an afebrile control group. A retrospective, semi-structured interview allowed us to quantify multiple aspects of mobility during the two-week period preceding each interview. We fitted nested models of each aspect of mobility to data from interviews and compared models using likelihood ratio tests to determine whether there were statistically distinguishable differences in mobility attributable to fever or its aetiology. Compared with afebrile individuals, febrile study participants spent more time at home, visited fewer locations, and, in some cases, visited locations closer to home and spent less time at certain types of locations. These multifaceted impacts are consistent with the possibility that disease-mediated changes in host mobility generate dynamic and complex changes in host contact network structure

Dengue illness impacts daily human mobility patterns in Iquitos, Peru

Background Human mobility plays a central role in shaping pathogen transmission by generating spatial and/or individual variability in potential pathogen-transmitting contacts. Recent research has shown that symptomatic infection can influence human mobility and pathogen transmission dynamics. Better understanding the complex relationship between symptom severity, infectiousness, and human mobility requires quantification of movement patterns throughout infectiousness. For dengue virus (DENV), human infectiousness peaks 0–2 days after symptom onset, making it paramount to understand human movement patterns from the beginning of illness. Methodology and principal findings Through community-based febrile surveillance and RT-PCR assays, we identified a cohort of DENV+ residents of the city of Iquitos, Peru (n = 63). Using retrospective interviews, we measured the movements of these individuals when healthy and during each day of symptomatic illness. The most dramatic changes in mobility occurred during the first three days after symptom onset; individuals visited significantly fewer locations (Wilcoxon test, p = 0.017) and spent significantly more time at home (Wilcoxon test, p = 0.005), compared to when healthy. By 7–9 days after symptom onset, mobility measures had returned to healthy levels. Throughout an individual’s symptomatic period, the day of illness and their subjective sense of well-being were the most significant predictors for the number of locations and houses they visited. Conclusions/Significance Our study is one of the first to collect and analyze human mobility data at a daily scale during symptomatic infection. Accounting for the observed changes in human mobility throughout illness will improve understanding of the impact of disease on DENV transmission dynamics and the interpretation of public health-based surveillance data

The Impact of Road Construction on Subjective Well-Being in Communities in Madre de Dios, Peru.

The interoceanic highway (IOH) in Madre de Dios, Peru has driven dramatic change in the Peruvian Amazon basin. We conducted a mixed methods study to examine the impact of these changes on the subjective well-being (SWB) of four communities on the IOH. Themes that emerged qualitatively included changing health threats, environmental degradation, and the impact of increased migration. To achieve a higher level of SWB, respondents emphasized the need for higher incomes, opportunities to learn new skills, and a better education for their children. Potential threats to SWB included marital problems and poorer health. Quantitative analyses suggested that social support and a sense of security impacted reported SWB scores based on life satisfaction, and the impact of income on life satisfaction was mediated by food security. Although long-term residents felt that specific determinants of SWB had both increased (food variety, transport and access to work) and decreased (access to natural resources and hunting), the majority reported that their lives had improved overall. Health had been affected by the IOH in both negative ways (increased dengue and road accidents) and positive ways (improved access to health services). Our results suggest that the rapidly-changing communities near the IOH link well-being to health, income, community, and the environment

Small scale migration along the interoceanic highway in Madre de Dios, Peru: an exploration of community perceptions and dynamics due to migration.

BACKGROUND: Madre de Dios, a southern state in the Peruvian Amazon basin, has experienced rapid development as well as an influx of migrants since the construction of the Interoceanic Highway (IOH) connecting Brazil, Bolivia, and the Peruvian coast. We explored perceptions of migration and development in up to eight communities along the IOH in Madre de Dios following construction of the highway. METHODS: We conducted a multiple methods study involving focus group (FG) discussions and interviews with key informants (KIs) in eight communities in Madre de Dios. The data was used to develop and apply a survey on demographics, financial, personal, social, human, and physical capital in four communities between February 2014 and March 2015. RESULTS: We conducted 12 FGs and 34 KI interviews. A total of 522 people participated in the survey. Comparing migrants (those who had moved to the area after construction of the IOH) and non-migrants, we found no difference in food security or access to health services. The majority (67.6%) of respondents from both groups reported that illness was their primary threat to well-being. Non-migrants owned more land than migrants (p < 0.001), were more likely to have piped water directly in their home (p = 0.046), and were more likely to participate in community groups (p = 0.012). Looking at perceptions about migrants, KIs and FGs discussed both positive perceptions of migrants (increased cultural exchange and new technology) and negative perceptions (increased drugs and alcohol in their communities and a lack of investment in the community). Both migrants and non-migrants reported trusting the local government more than the national government. CONCLUSIONS: Although we hypothesized that migrants would have decreased access to food, water, health services, and land relative to non-migrants, our results show that the only significant differences were in land ownership and water access. Efforts to improve community infrastructure should be carried out at the local level and focus on improving issues reported by both groups, such as potable water, sewage, and increased access to health services. Furthermore, an emphasis on community cohesion, ensuring land rights, and increasing long-term job opportunities should help ease tensions between migrants and non-migrants