Probabilistic models for feedback systems.

In previous work, we developed a Bayesian-based methodology to analyze the reliability of hierarchical systems. The output of the procedure is a statistical distribution of the reliability, thus allowing many questions to be answered. The principal advantage of the approach is that along with an estimate of the reliability, we also can provide statements of confidence in the results. The model is quite general in that it allows general representations of all of the distributions involved, it incorporates prior knowledge into the models, it allows errors in the 'engineered' nodes of a system to be determined by the data, and leads to the ability to determine optimal testing strategies. In this report, we provide the preliminary steps necessary to extend this approach to systems with feedback. Feedback is an essential component of 'complexity' and provides interesting challenges in modeling the time-dependent action of a feedback loop. We provide a mechanism for doing this and analyze a simple case. We then consider some extensions to more interesting examples with local control affecting the entire system. Finally, a discussion of the status of the research is also included

ODRPACK95: A Weighted Orthogonal Distance Regression Code with Bound Constraints

ODRPACK (TOMS Algorithm 676) has provided a complete package for weighted orthogonal distance regression for many years. The code is complete with user selectable reporting facilities, numerical and analytic derivatives, derivative checking, and many more features. The foundation for the algorithm is a stable and efficient trust region Levenberg-Marquardt minimizer that exploits the structure of the orthogonal distance regression problem. ODRPACK95 is a modification of the original ODRPACK code that adds support for bound constraints, uses the newer Fortran 95 language, and simplifies the interface to the user called subroutine

A Practical Algorithm for General Large Scale Nonlinear Optimization Problems

We provide an effective and efficient implementation of a sequential quadratic programming (SQP) algorithm for the general large scale nonlinear programming problem. In this algorithm the quadratic programming subproblems are solved by an interior point method that can be prematurely halted by a trust region constraint. Numerous computational enhancements to improve the numerical performance are presented. These include a dynamic procedure for adjusting the merit function parameter and procedures for adjusting the trust region radius. Numerical results and comparisons are presented

Bayesian methods for estimating the reliability in complex hierarchical networks (interim report).

Current work on the Integrated Stockpile Evaluation (ISE) project is evidence of Sandia's commitment to maintaining the integrity of the nuclear weapons stockpile. In this report, we undertake a key element in that process: development of an analytical framework for determining the reliability of the stockpile in a realistic environment of time-variance, inherent uncertainty, and sparse available information. This framework is probabilistic in nature and is founded on a novel combination of classical and computational Bayesian analysis, Bayesian networks, and polynomial chaos expansions. We note that, while the focus of the effort is stockpile-related, it is applicable to any reasonably-structured hierarchical system, including systems with feedback

EON-ROSE and the Canadian Cordillera Array – Building Bridges to Span Earth System Science in Canada

EON-ROSE (Earth-System Observing Network - Réseau d’Observation du Système terrestrE) is a new initiative for a pan-Canadian research collaboration to holistically examine Earth systems from the ionosphere into the core. The Canadian Cordillera Array (CC Array) is the pilot phase, and will extend across the Cordillera from the Beaufort Sea to the U.S. border. The vision for EON-ROSE is to install a network of telemetered observatories to monitor solid Earth, environmental and atmospheric processes. EON-ROSE is an inclusive, combined effort of Canadian universities, federal, provincial and territorial government agencies, industry, and international collaborators. Brainstorming sessions and several workshops have been held since May 2016. The first station will be installed at Kluane Lake Research Station in southwestern Yukon during the summer of 2018. The purpose of this report is to provide a framework for continued discussion and development.RÉSUMÉEON-ROSE (Earth-System Observing Network - Réseau d’Observation du Système terrestrE) est une nouvelle initiative de collaboration de recherche pancanadienne visant à étudier de manière holistique les systèmes terrestres, depuis l’ionosphère jusqu’au noyau. Le Réseau canadien de la cordillère (CC Array) en est la phase pilote, laquelle couvrira toute la Cordillère, de la mer de Beaufort jusqu’à la frontière étasunienne. L’objectif d’EON-ROSE est d’installer un réseau d’observatoires télémétriques pour suivre en continu les processusterrestres, environnementaux et atmosphériques. EON-ROSE est un effort combiné et inclusif des universités canadiennes, des organismes gouvernementaux fédéraux, provinciaux et territoriaux, de l’industrie et de collaborateurs internationaux. Des séances de remue-méninges et plusieurs ateliers ont été tenus depuis mai 2016. La première station sera installée à la station de recherche du lac Kluane, dans le sud-ouest du Yukon, au cours de l’été 2018. Le but du présent rapport est de fournir un cadre de discussion et de développement continu

Evolution of Linear Absorption and Nonlinear Optical Properties in V-Shaped Ruthenium(II)-Based Chromophores

In this article, we describe a series of complexes with electron-rich cis-{Ru^(II)(NH_3)_4}^(2+) centers coordinated to two pyridyl ligands bearing N-methyl/arylpyridinium electron-acceptor groups. These V-shaped dipolar species are new, extended members of a class of chromophores first reported by us (Coe, B. J. et al. J. Am. Chem. Soc. 2005, 127, 4845−4859). They have been isolated as their PF_6− salts and characterized by using various techniques including ^1H NMR and electronic absorption spectroscopies and cyclic voltammetry. Reversible Ru^(III/II) waves show that the new complexes are potentially redox-switchable chromophores. Single crystal X-ray structures have been obtained for four complex salts; three of these crystallize noncentrosymmetrically, but with the individual molecular dipoles aligned largely antiparallel. Very large molecular first hyperpolarizabilities β have been determined by using hyper-Rayleigh scattering (HRS) with an 800 nm laser and also via Stark (electroabsorption) spectroscopic studies on the intense, visible d → π^* metal-to-ligand charge-transfer (MLCT) and π → π^* intraligand charge-transfer (ILCT) bands. The latter measurements afford total nonresonant β_0 responses as high as ca. 600 × 10^(−30) esu. These pseudo-C_(2v) chromophores show two substantial components of the β tensor, β_(zzz) and β_(zyy), although the relative significance of these varies with the physical method applied. According to HRS, β_(zzz) dominates in all cases, whereas the Stark analyses indicate that β_(zyy) is dominant in the shorter chromophores, but β_(zzz) and β_(zyy) are similar for the extended species. In contrast, finite field calculations predict that β_(zyy) is always the major component. Time-dependent density functional theory calculations predict increasing ILCT character for the nominally MLCT transitions and accompanying blue-shifts of the visible absorptions, as the ligand π-systems are extended. Such unusual behavior has also been observed with related 1D complexes (Coe, B. J. et al. J. Am. Chem. Soc. 2004, 126, 3880−3891)

Reduced Myelin Basic Protein and Actin-Related Gene Expression in Visual Cortex in Schizophrenia

Most brain gene expression studies of schizophrenia have been conducted in the frontal cortex or hippocampus. The extent to which alterations occur in other cortical regions is not well established. We investigated primary visual cortex (Brodmann area 17) from the Stanley Neuropathology Consortium collection of tissue from 60 subjects with schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, major depression, or controls. We first carried out a preliminary array screen of pooled RNA, and then used RT-PCR to quantify five mRNAs which the array identified as differentially expressed in schizophrenia (myelin basic protein [MBP], myelin-oligodendrocyte glycoprotein [MOG], β-actin [ACTB], thymosin β-10 [TB10], and superior cervical ganglion-10 [SCG10]). Reduced mRNA levels were confirmed by RT-PCR for MBP, ACTB and TB10. The MBP reduction was limited to transcripts containing exon 2. ACTB and TB10 mRNAs were also decreased in bipolar disorder. None of the transcripts were altered in subjects with major depression. Reduced MBP mRNA in schizophrenia replicates findings in other brain regions and is consistent with oligodendrocyte involvement in the disorder. The decreases in expression of ACTB, and the actin-binding protein gene TB10, suggest changes in cytoskeletal organisation. The findings confirm that the primary visual cortex shows molecular alterations in schizophrenia and extend the evidence for a widespread, rather than focal, cortical pathophysiology

Yield and Economic Performance of Organic and Conventional Cotton-Based Farming Systems – Results from a Field Trial in India

The debate on the relative benefits of conventional and organic farming systems has in recent time gained significant interest. So far, global agricultural development has focused on increased productivity rather than on a holistic natural resource management for food security. Thus, developing more sustainable farming practices on a large scale is of utmost importance. However, information concerning the performance of farming systems under organic and conventional management in tropical and subtropical regions is scarce. This study presents agronomic and economic data from the conversion phase (2007–2010) of a farming systems comparison trial on a Vertisol soil in Madhya Pradesh, central India. A cotton-soybean-wheat crop rotation under biodynamic, organic and conventional (with and without Bt cotton) management was investigated. We observed a significant yield gap between organic and conventional farming systems in the 1st crop cycle (cycle 1: 2007–2008) for cotton (229%) and wheat (227%), whereas in the 2nd crop cycle (cycle 2: 2009–2010) cotton and wheat yields were similar in all farming systems due to lower yields in the conventional systems. In contrast, organic soybean (a nitrogen fixing leguminous plant) yields were marginally lower than conventional yields (21% in cycle 1, 211% in cycle 2). Averaged across all crops, conventional farming systems achieved significantly higher gross margins in cycle 1 (+29%), whereas in cycle 2 gross margins in organic farming systems were significantly higher (+25%) due to lower variable production costs but similar yields. Soybean gross margin was significantly higher in the organic system (+11%) across the four harvest years compared to the conventional systems. Our results suggest that organic soybean production is a viable option for smallholder farmers under the prevailing semi-arid conditions in India. Future research needs to elucidate the long-term productivity and profitability, particularly of cotton and wheat, and the ecological impact of the different farming systems

Impact of Intraoperative Parathyroid Hormone Monitoring on the Prediction of Multiglandular Parathyroid Disease

Optimal interpretation of the results of intraoperative parathyroid hormone (IOPTH) monitoring during neck exploration for primary hyperparathyroidism (pHPT) is still controversial. The reliability of the “50% rule” in multiglandular disease (MGD) is often disputed, mostly because of competing pathophysiologic paradigms. The aim of this study was to ascertain and corroborate the ability of IOPTH monitoring to detect MGD in a practice, combining conventional and alternative parathyroidectomy techniques. This is a retrospective single institution analysis of 69 consecutive patients undergoing cervical exploration for pHPT by various approaches. The IOPTH measurements were performed after induction of anesthesia but prior to skin incision and 10 minutes after excision of the first visualized enlarged parathyroid gland. In this series, 55 patients (80%) had single adenomas, and 14 patients (20%) had MGD. In 8 of the 14 patients with MGD, IOPTH levels were obtained sequentially after removal of every enlarged gland. Of these 8 patients, 6 (75%) had a false-positive decrease (decrease below 50% of baseline value in presence of another enlarged gland) failing to predict the presence of a second enlarged gland. In 2 cases IOPTH monitoring provided a true-negative result, correctly predicting MGD. If MGD is defined by gross morphologic criteria, IOPTH monitoring fails to predict the presence of MGD reliably. However, if MGD is defined by functional criteria, the course of these patients does not seem significantly affected. The importance of these findings must be further investigated, especially with regard to the outcome of minimally invasive parathyroid procedures.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/41301/1/268_2003_Article_7255.pd