Effect of pre-operative bicarbonate infusion on maternal and perinatal outcomes among women with obstructed labour in Mbale hospital: A double blind randomized controlled trial

Introduction Oral bicarbonate solution is known to improve both maternal and perinatal outcomes among women with abnormal labour (dystocia). Its effectiveness and safety among women with obstructed labour is not known. Objective To determine the effect and safety of a single-dose preoperative infusion of sodium bicarbonate on maternal and fetal blood lactate and clinical outcomes among women with obstructed labour (OL) in Mbale hospital. Methods We conducted a double blind, randomised controlled trial from July 2018 to September 2019. The participants were women with OL at term (≥37 weeks gestation), carrying a singleton pregnancy with no other obstetric emergency, medical comorbidity or laboratory derangements. Intervention A total of 477 women with OL were randomized to receive 50ml of 8.4% sodium bicarbonate (238 women) or 50 mL of 0.9% sodium chloride (239 women). In both the intervention and controls arms, each participant was preoperatively given a single dose intravenous bolus. Every participant received 1.5 L of normal saline in one hour as part of standard preoperative care. Outcome measures Our primary outcome was the mean difference in maternal venous blood lactate at one hour between the two arms. The secondary outcomes were umbilical cord blood lactate levels at birth, neonatal sepsis and early neonatal death upto 7 days postnatal, as well as the side effects of sodium bicarbonate, primary postpartum hemorrhage, maternal sepsis and mortality at 14 days postpartum. Results The median maternal venous lactate was 6.4 (IQR 3.3–12.3) in the intervention and 7.5 (IQR 4.0–15.8) in the control group, with a statistically non-significant median difference of 1.2 mmol/L; p-value = 0.087. Vargha and Delaney effect size was 0.46 (95% CI 0.40–0.51) implying very little if any effect at all. Conclusion The 4.2g of preoperative intravenous sodium bicarbonate was safe but made little or no difference on blood lactate levels.publishedVersio

Children’s conceptions of peace in two Ugandan primary schools: Insights for peace curriculum

Oppenheimer urged communities all over the world to study how children come to understand peace, conflict, and war. Set in various countries, their review of studies, as well as more recent examinations reveal trends in how children view these phenomena, often differing by gender, age, and extent to which they were exposed to highly dangerous and traumatizing situations, like being forced to be child soldiers or sex slaves. No such research has been published in the contemporary post-war Uganda context. Using focus group methodology, we asked: How might Ugandan primary school children’s stories about peace (traditional and otherwise) help them navigate conflict? What sorts of conflicts do these children observe in their home, school, and community, and how do they describe peace as being resolved by themselves or others? The purpose of our study was to contribute to the knowledge base on peace education in Uganda and to ultimately develop written materials that students can use as part of their learning in their respective schools. Local studies like this one are relevant to the global situation because racial and economic conditions are global phenomena. The local manifestations can speak to those racial and economic conditions as perspectives not often used to put the global situation in relief. This paper explores the findings related to the children’s overarching conceptions of peace and their ideas of peacebuilding, including activities that both hinder and encourage peace. The voices of the children speak strongly of the connection between peace and access to basic necessities in the community

Establishing a library of resources to help people understand key concepts in assessing treatment claims—The “Critical thinking and Appraisal Resource Library” (CARL)

Background People are frequently confronted with untrustworthy claims about the effects of treatments. Uncritical acceptance of these claims can lead to poor, and sometimes dangerous, treatment decisions, and wasted time and money. Resources to help people learn to think critically about treatment claims are scarce, and they are widely scattered. Furthermore, very few learning-resources have been assessed to see if they improve knowledge and behavior. Objectives Our objectives were to develop the Critical thinking and Appraisal Resource Library (CARL). This library was to be in the form of a database containing learning resources for those who are responsible for encouraging critical thinking about treatment claims, and was to be made available online. We wished to include resources for groups we identified as ‘intermediaries’ of knowledge, i.e. teachers of schoolchildren, undergraduates and graduates, for example those teaching evidence-based medicine, or those communicating treatment claims to the public. In selecting resources, we wished to draw particular attention to those resources that had been formally evaluated, for example, by the creators of the resource or independent research groups. Methods CARL was populated with learning-resources identified from a variety of sources—two previously developed but unmaintained inventories; systematic reviews of learning-interventions; online and database searches; and recommendations by members of the project group and its advisors. The learning-resources in CARL were organised by ‘Key Concepts’ needed to judge the trustworthiness of treatment claims, and were made available online by the James Lind Initiative in Testing Treatments interactive (TTi) English (www.testingtreatments.org/category/learning-resources).TTi English also incorporated the database of Key Concepts and the Claim Evaluation Tools developed through the Informed Healthcare Choices (IHC) project (informedhealthchoices.org). Results We have created a database of resources called CARL, which currently contains over 500 open-access learning-resources in a variety of formats: text, audio, video, webpages, cartoons, and lesson materials. These are aimed primarily at ‘Intermediaries’, that is, ‘teachers’, ‘communicators’, ‘advisors’, ‘researchers’, as well as for independent ‘learners’. The resources included in CARL are currently accessible at www.testingtreatments.org/category/learning-resources Conclusions We hope that ready access to CARL will help to promote the critical thinking about treatment claims, needed to help improve healthcare choices

The Effect of Age, Stage of the Annual Production Cycle and Pregnancy-Rank on the Relationship between Liveweight and Body Condition Score in Extensively Managed Romney Ewes

This study determined the nature of the relationship between liveweight and body condition score (BCS) and assessed the influence of the stage of the annual cycle and pregnancy-rank on the relationship between liveweight and BCS in Romney ewes. Data were collected from the same ewes at different ages (8–18, 19–30, 31–42, 43–54, 55–66 and ≥67 months), stages of the annual cycle (pre-breeding, at pregnancy diagnosis, pre-lambing and weaning) and pregnancy-rank (non-pregnant, single or twin). Linear regression was determined as being sufficient to accurately describe the relationship between liveweight and BCS. Across all data, a one-unit change in BCS was associated with 6.2 ± 0.05 kg liveweight, however, this differed by stage of the cycle, pregnancy-rank and ewe age (p <0.05). The average liveweight per unit change in body condition score increased with the age of the ewe and was greatest at weaning and lowest pre-lambing. Among pregnancy-ranks, the average liveweight per unit change was also greater during pregnancy diagnosis than pre-lambing and was greatest among single and lowest in non-pregnant ewes. The results support the hypothesis that the relationship between liveweight and BCS is affected by the interaction between stage of the annual cycle, pregnancy-rank and ewe age

Vitamin D Levels in Mother-Baby Pairs: A Cross-Sectional Prospective Study in a Rwandan Tertiary Hospital

Background: Exposure to the sunlight contributes largely to the production of vitamin D. However, vitamin D deficiency is a reality in tropical countries, despite enjoying enough sunlight, especially bearing women in their last trimester whose foetuses exclusively depend on their reserves. This work aimed at demonstrating the state of vitamin D in mother-baby pairs and associated factors in one of the University Hospitals in Rwanda. Methods: This cross-sectional prospective study was performed on mother-baby pairs at Kigali University Hospital. Mother's serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels were considered as outcomes compared with demographic, clinical and biological markers. Correlation analysis was conducted in order to assess the association between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels for the couple mothers-babies. Results: Approximately 38% of women and 65% of neonates had deficiency in 25-hydroxyvitamin D (<20 ng/ml). The use of a vitamin D rich diet within 24 h recall (p < 0.01) or 1 week recall (p< 0.001) before delivery was associated with appropriate vitamin D levels in mothers. Interestingly, a strong positive correlation was found between maternal and neonatal serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels (r = 0.760). Conclusions: There was a high rate of vitamin D deficiency in mothers and their babies. Babies born from women with deficiency were likely to develop low levels of vitamin D. This stresses on the need to strengthen the interventions for preventing vitamin D deficiency in the couple mothers-babies such as supplement in vitamin D before and after delivery, improving the quality of meals and regular contact with sunlight

Bayesian belief network modelling approach for predicting and ranking risk factors for malaria infections among children under 5 years in refugee settlements in Uganda

Abstract Background Malaria risk factors at household level are known to be complex, uncertain, stochastic, nonlinear, and multidimensional. The interplay among these factors, makes targeted interventions, and resource allocation for malaria control challenging. However, few studies have demonstrated malaria’s transmission complexity, control, and integrated modelling, with no available evidence on Uganda’s refugee settlements. Using the 2018–2019 Uganda’s Malaria Indicator Survey (UMIS) data, an alternative Bayesian belief network (BBN) modelling approach was used to analyse, predict, rank and illustrate the conceptual reasoning, and complex causal relationships among the risk factors for malaria infections among children under-five in refugee settlements of Uganda. Methods In the UMIS, household level information was obtained using standardized questionnaires, and a total of 675 children under 5 years were tested for malaria. From the dataset, a casefile containing malaria test results, demographic, social-economic and environmental information was created. The casefile was divided into a training (80%, n = 540) and testing (20%, n = 135) datasets. The training dataset was used to develop the BBN model following well established guidelines. The testing dataset was used to evaluate model performance. Results Model accuracy was 91.11% with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.95. The model’s spherical payoff was 0.91, with the logarithmic, and quadratic losses of 0.36, and 0.16 respectively, indicating a strong predictive, and classification ability of the model. The probability of refugee children testing positive, and negative for malaria was 48.1% and 51.9% respectively. The top ranked malaria risk factors based on the sensitivity analysis included: (1) age of child; (2) roof materials (i.e., thatch roofs); (3) wall materials (i.e., poles with mud and thatch walls); (4) whether children sleep under insecticide-treated nets; 5) type of toilet facility used (i.e., no toilet facility, and pit latrines with slabs); (6) walk time distance to water sources (between 0 and 10 min); (7) drinking water sources (i.e., open water sources, and piped water on premises). Conclusion Ranking, rather than the statistical significance of the malaria risk factors, is crucial as an approach to applied research, as it helps stakeholders determine how to allocate resources for targeted malaria interventions within the constraints of limited funding in the refugee settlements

Prediction of future malaria hotspots under climate change in sub-Saharan Africa

Malaria is a climate sensitive disease that is causing rampant deaths in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and its impact is expected to worsen under climate change. Thus, pre-emptive policies for future malaria control require projections based on integrated models that can accommodate complex interactions of both climatic and non-climatic factors that define malaria landscape. In this paper, we combined Geographical Information System (GIS) and Bayesian belief networks (BBN) to generate GIS-BBN models that predicted malaria hotspots in 2030, 2050 and 2100 under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. We used malaria data of children of SSA, gridded environmental and social-economic data together with projected climate data from the 21 Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 models to compile the GIS-BBN models. Our model on which projections were made has an accuracy of 80.65% to predict the high, medium, low and no malaria prevalence categories correctly. The non-spatial BBN model projection shows a moderate variation in malaria reduction for the high prevalence category among RCPs. Under the low prevalence category, an increase in malaria is seen but with little variation ranging between 4.6 and 5.6 percentage points. Spatially, under RCP 4.5, most parts of SSA will have medium malaria prevalence in 2030, while under RCP 8.5, most parts will have no malaria except in the highlands. Our BBN-GIS models show an overall shift of malaria hotspots from West Africa to the eastern and southern parts of Africa especially under RCP 8.5. RCP 8.5 will not expand the high and medium malaria prevalence categories in all the projection years. The generated probabilistic maps highlight future malaria hotspots under climate change on which pre-emptive policies can be based

Integrated modelling of the determinants of household food insecurity during the 2020–2021 COVID-19 lockdown in Uganda

Abstract Background The determinants of household food insecurity (HFI) do not act in isolation, and are known to be complex, stochastic, nonlinear, and multidimensional. Despite this being especially true in periods of shocks, studies that focus on integrated modelling of the HFI determinants during the COVID-19 lockdown are scarce, with no available evidence on Uganda. The main objective of this study was to develop Bayesian belief network (BBN) models to analyse, rank, and illustrate the conceptual reasoning, and complex causal relationships among the determinants of HFI during the COVID-19 lockdown. This study was based on seven rounds of Uganda’s High-Frequency Phone Surveys data sets collected during the lockdown. A total of 15,032 households, 17 independent determinants of HFI, and 8 food security indicators were used in this study. Metrics of sensitivity, and prediction performance were used to evaluate models’ accuracy. Results Eight BBN models were developed for each food insecurity indicator. The accuracy rates of the models ranged between 70.5% and 93.5%, with an average accuracy rate of 78.5%, indicating excellent predictive performance in identifying the determinants of HFI correctly. Our results revealed that approximately 42.2% of the sampled households (n = 15,032) in Uganda were worried about not having enough food. An estimated 25.2% of the respondents reported skipping a meal, while 32.1% reported consuming less food. Less than 20% of the households experienced food shortage, hunger, or having nothing to eat. Overall, 30.6% of the households were food insecure during the lockdown. The top five ranked determinants of HFI were identified as follows: (1) households’ inability to produce enough food; (2) households’ inability to buy food; (3) reduced household income; (4) limited cash assistance, and (5) households’ inability to stock adequate food supplies. Conclusions Ranking, rather than the statistical significance of the determinants of HFI, is crucial as an approach to applied research, as it helps stakeholders determine how to allocate resources for targeted interventions within the constraints of limited funding. These findings emphasize the importance of intervening on the most highly ranked determinants of HFI to enhance the resilience of local food systems, and households’ capacity to cope with recurring and unforeseen shocks

Effect of pre-operative bicarbonate infusion on maternal and perinatal outcomes among women with obstructed labour in Mbale hospital: A double blind randomized controlled trial

Introduction Oral bicarbonate solution is known to improve both maternal and perinatal outcomes among women with abnormal labour (dystocia). Its effectiveness and safety among women with obstructed labour is not known. Objective To determine the effect and safety of a single-dose preoperative infusion of sodium bicarbonate on maternal and fetal blood lactate and clinical outcomes among women with obstructed labour (OL) in Mbale hospital. Methods We conducted a double blind, randomised controlled trial from July 2018 to September 2019. The participants were women with OL at term (≥37 weeks gestation), carrying a singleton pregnancy with no other obstetric emergency, medical comorbidity or laboratory derangements. Intervention A total of 477 women with OL were randomized to receive 50ml of 8.4% sodium bicarbonate (238 women) or 50 mL of 0.9% sodium chloride (239 women). In both the intervention and controls arms, each participant was preoperatively given a single dose intravenous bolus. Every participant received 1.5 L of normal saline in one hour as part of standard preoperative care. Outcome measures Our primary outcome was the mean difference in maternal venous blood lactate at one hour between the two arms. The secondary outcomes were umbilical cord blood lactate levels at birth, neonatal sepsis and early neonatal death upto 7 days postnatal, as well as the side effects of sodium bicarbonate, primary postpartum hemorrhage, maternal sepsis and mortality at 14 days postpartum. Results The median maternal venous lactate was 6.4 (IQR 3.3–12.3) in the intervention and 7.5 (IQR 4.0–15.8) in the control group, with a statistically non-significant median difference of 1.2 mmol/L; p-value = 0.087. Vargha and Delaney effect size was 0.46 (95% CI 0.40–0.51) implying very little if any effect at all. Conclusion The 4.2g of preoperative intravenous sodium bicarbonate was safe but made little or no difference on blood lactate levels

Key concepts for informed health choices: A framework for helping people learn how to assess treatment claims and make informed choices

Many claims about the effects of treatments, though well intentioned, are wrong. Indeed, they are sometimes deliberately misleading to serve interests other than the well-being of patients and the public. People need to know how to spot unreliable treatment claims so that they can protect themselves and others from harm. The ability to assess the trustworthiness of treatment claims is often lacking. Acquiring this ability depends on being familiar with, and correctly applying, some key concepts, for example, that' association is not the same as causation.' The Informed Health Choices (IHC) Project has identified 36 such concepts and shown that people can be taught to use them in decision making. A randomised trial in Uganda, for example, showed that primary school children with poor reading skills could be taught to apply 12 of the IHC Key Concepts. The list of IHC Key Concepts has proven to be effective in providing a framework for developing and evaluating IHC resources to help children to think critically about treatment claims. The list also provides a framework for retrieving, coding and organising other teaching and learning materials for learners of any age. It should help teachers, researchers, clinicians, and patients to structure critical thinking about the trustworthiness of claims about treatment effects