Do Heating Oil Prices Adjust Asymmetrically To Changes In Crude Oil Prices

This study investigated if there is an asymmetric  relationships between heating oil and  crude oil futures price changes for maturities of one to four months. The study finds that heating oil and crude oil futures price series of one-month to four month maturities are threshold cointegrated. The study  also shows that heating oil and crude oil futures prices adjust "Asymmetrically" for deviation from equilibrium. At shorter maturities (one and two month contracts) heating oil and crude oil prices adjust faster for positive deviation from threshold equilibrium. In contrast, for longer maturities (three and four month contracts) heating oil and crude oil prices adjust faster for negative deviation from equilibrium.  Finally, this study finds that only heating oil prices adjust to clear deviations from long-run equilibrium relationship.

Sources Of Variability In Global Equity Returns

This study examines basically major geographical sources of global returns and risks. The focus is on the relevance of global, regional and national allocation policies. Additionally, the significance of value-growth allocation policy is also analyzed. The empirical analysis covers major developed equity markets, and it is conducted within the framework of the international capital asset pricing model. Our findings show that although the global systematic risk is getting to be a fundamental determinant of global equity returns and risks, country and, particularly, region selection are still important. Global and regional risk together can explain at least two-thirds of the total variability of equity returns in the majority of developed markets. However, the results of this study indicate a trivial effect for the value-growth allocation policy

Modified Net Present Value (MNPV): A New Technique for Capital Budgeting

In this paper we show that, when the firm\u27s opportunity rate of reinvestment is different from its financing rate. The risk-adjusted discount rate method (RADR) of computing Net Present Value (NPV) leads to the same type of incorrect results that required new methodology for modifying Internal Rate of Return (IRR) calculations (i.e. Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR)). Specifically, the current method of calculating NPV is biased in favour of (against) high-risk projects and against (in favour ot) low-risk projects when the risk-adjusted discount rate is greater (less) than the firm\u27s average marginal cost of capital (WACC) for two reasons. First, it incorrectly assumes that the reinvestment rate for project cash inflows is the risk-adjusted discount rate of the project instead of the firm\u27s opportunity rate of reinvestment. Sccond, it incorrectly assumes that projected cash outflows, for the time periods alier the initial outlay, are also discounted at the risk-adjusted discount rate. We propose a new methodology to establish a MNPV to eliminate the RADR methodology bias and derive a generalised rate of return (k*) under all combinations of reinvestment and iinancing rates for a firm. In addition we derive and demonstrate the linkages and consistency between the new MNPV, k*, Profitability Index (PI) and MIRR methodologies

What promotes greater use of the corporate bond market? A study of the issuance behaviour of firms in Asia

This paper investigates bond market development in Asia by exploring the determinants of firms' decisions to issue public debt in a range of Asian economies. Using a novel database covering the period 1995 to 2007, we use comparable micro level panel of nine countries - China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand - to explore factors that promote bond issuance by firms. We control for firm characteristics and market features such as bond market depth and liquidity; we also consider supra-national policy initiatives to improve bond market function. Our paper demonstrates that regional initiatives have been an important step towards greater bond issuance by firms in Asia, mostly by fostering market deepening and improving liquidity

Business experience and start-up size: buying more lottery tickets next time around?

This paper explores the determinants of start-up size by focusing on a cohort of 6247 businesses that started trading in 2004, using a unique dataset on customer records at Barclays Bank. Quantile regressions show that prior business experience is significantly related with start-up size, as are a number of other variables such as age, education and bank account activity. Quantile treatment effects (QTE) estimates show similar results, with the effect of business experience on (log) start-up size being roughly constant across the quantiles. Prior personal business experience leads to an increase in expected start-up size of about 50%. Instrumental variable QTE estimates are even higher, although there are concerns about the validity of the instrument

Cigarette smokers' intention to quit smoking in Dire Dawa town Ethiopia: an assessment using the Transtheoretical Model

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Cessation of smoking reduces morbidity and mortality related to tobacco smoking. It is essential to explore the intention of individuals to quit smoking to design effective interventions. The objective of this study was to assess cigarette smokers' intention to quit smoking in Dire Dawa town using the Transtheoretical model.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>From February 15 to 19, 2009, we conducted a community based cross-sectional study among 384 current cigarette smokers in Dire Dawa town east Ethiopia. Data was collected by trained personnel using a pretested structured questionnaire. The data was analyzed using SPSS version 16.0.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Two hundred and nineteen (57%) smokers in the study area had the intention to quit cigarette smoking within the next six months and all the process of change had an increasing trend across the stages. Based on the Fragestrom test of nicotine dependence of cigarette, 35 (9.1%), 69 (18%) and 48(12.5%) were very high, high and medium dependent on nicotine respectively. For the majority 247(64.3%) of the respondents, the mean score of cons of smoking outweighs the pros score (negative decisional balance). Only 66(17.2%) had high self efficacy not to smoke in places and situations that can aggravate smoking.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Majority of the smokers had the intention to quit smoking. All the process of change had an increasing trend across the stages. Those who had no intention to quit smoking had high level of dependence on nicotine and low self efficacy. The pros of smoking were decreasing while the cons were increasing across the stages. Stage based interventions should be done to move the smokers from their current stage to an advanced stages of quitting cigarette smoking.</p

Predictors of adherence to antiretroviral therapy among HIV-infected persons: a prospective study in Southwest Ethiopia

BACKGROUND: The devastating impact of AIDS in the world especially in sub-Saharan Africa has led to an unprecedented global effort to ensure access to antiretroviral (ARV) drugs. Given that medication-taking behavior can immensely affect an individual's response; ART adherence is now widely recognized as an 'Achilles heel' for the successful outcome. The present study was undertaken to investigate the rate and predictors of adherence to antiretroviral therapy among HIV-infected persons in southwest Ethiopia. METHODS: The study was conducted in the antiretroviral therapy unit of Jimma University Specialized Hospital. A prospective study was undertaken on a total of 400 HIV infected person. Data were collected using a pre-tested interviewer-administered structured questionnaire at first month (M0) and third month (M3) follow up visits. RESULTS: A total of 400 and 383 patients at baseline (M0) and at follow up visit (M3) respectively were interviewed. Self-reported dose adherence in the study area was 94.3%. The rate considering the combined indicator (dose, time and food) was 75.7%. Within a three month follow up period, dose adherence decreased by 2% and overall adherence rate decreased by more than 3%. Adherence was common in those patients who have a social support (OR, 1.82, 95%CI, 1.04, 3.21). Patients who were not depressed were two times more likely to be adherent than those who were depressed (OR, 2.13, 95%CI, 1.18, 3.81). However, at the follow up visit, social support (OR, 2.42, 95%CI, 1.29, 4.55) and the use of memory aids (OR, 3.29, 95%CI, 1.44, 7.51) were found to be independent predictors of adherence. The principal reasons reported for skipping doses in this study were simply forgetting, feeling sick or ill, being busy and running out of medication in more than 75% of the cases. CONCLUSION: The self reported adherence rate was high in the study area. The study showed that adherence is a dynamic process which changes overtime and cannot reliably be predicted by a few patient characteristics that are assumed to vary with time. Adherence is a process, not a single event, and adherence support should be integrated into regular clinical follow up