A Flexible Multi-Metric Bayesian Framework for Decision-Making in Phase II Multi-Arm Multi-Stage Studies

We propose a multi-metric flexible Bayesian framework to support efficient interim decision-making in multi-arm multi-stage phase II clinical trials. Multi-arm multi-stage phase II studies increase the efficiency of drug development, but early decisions regarding the futility or desirability of a given arm carry considerable risk since sample sizes are often low and follow-up periods may be short. Further, since intermediate outcomes based on biomarkers of treatment response are rarely perfect surrogates for the primary outcome and different trial stakeholders may have different levels of risk tolerance, a single hypothesis test is insufficient for comprehensively summarizing the state of the collected evidence. We present a Bayesian framework comprised of multiple metrics based on point estimates, uncertainty, and evidence towards desired thresholds (a Target Product Profile, TPP) for 1) ranking of arms and 2) comparison of each arm against an internal control. Using a large public-private partnership targeting novel TB arms as a motivating example, we find via simulation study that our multi-metric framework provides sufficient confidence for decision-making with sample sizes as low as 30 patients per arm, even when intermediate outcomes have only moderate correlation with the primary outcome. Our reframing of trial design and the decision-making procedure has been well-received by research partners and is a practical approach to more efficient assessment of novel therapeutics.Comment: 16 pages, 6 main text figures, 3 supplemental figure

Limited role of culture conversion for decision-making in individual patient care and for advancing novel regimens to confirmatory clinical trials

Supported by the European and Developing Country Clinical Trials Partnership (grant IP.2007.32011.011) and the Global Alliance for TB Drug Development, with support from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US Agency for International Development, UK Department for International Development, Directorate-General for International Cooperation of the Netherlands, Irish Aid and Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.Background Despite recent increased clinical trials activity, no regimen has proved able to replace the standard 6-month regimen for drug-sensitive tuberculosis. Understanding the relationship between microbiological markers measured during treatment and long-term clinical outcomes is critical to evaluate their usefulness for decision-making for both individual patient care and for advancing novel regimens into time-consuming and expensive pivotal phase III trials. Methods Using data from the randomized controlled phase III trial REMoxTB, we evaluated sputum-based markers of speed of clearance of bacilli: time to smear negative status; time to culture negative status on LJ or in MGIT; daily rate of change of log10(TTP) to day 56; and smear or culture results at weeks 6, 8 or 12; as individual- and trial-level surrogate endpoints for long-term clinical outcome. Results Time to culture negative status on LJ or in MGIT, time to smear negative status and daily rate of change in log10(TTP) were each independent predictors of clinical outcome, adjusted for treatment (p <0.001). However, discrimination between low and high risk patients, as measured by the c-statistic, was modest and not much higher than the reference model adjusted for BMI, history of smoking, HIV status, cavitation, gender and MGIT TTP. Conclusions Culture conversion during treatment for tuberculosis, however measured, has only a limited role in decision-making for advancing regimens into phase III trials or in predicting the outcome of treatment for individual patients. REMoxTB ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT00864383.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Limited role of culture conversion for decision-making in individual patient care and for advancing novel regimens to confirmatory clinical trials

Supported by the European and Developing Country Clinical Trials Partnership (grant IP.2007.32011.011) and the Global Alliance for TB Drug Development, with support from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US Agency for International Development, UK Department for International Development, Directorate-General for International Cooperation of the Netherlands, Irish Aid and Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.Background Despite recent increased clinical trials activity, no regimen has proved able to replace the standard 6-month regimen for drug-sensitive tuberculosis. Understanding the relationship between microbiological markers measured during treatment and long-term clinical outcomes is critical to evaluate their usefulness for decision-making for both individual patient care and for advancing novel regimens into time-consuming and expensive pivotal phase III trials. Methods Using data from the randomized controlled phase III trial REMoxTB, we evaluated sputum-based markers of speed of clearance of bacilli: time to smear negative status; time to culture negative status on LJ or in MGIT; daily rate of change of log10(TTP) to day 56; and smear or culture results at weeks 6, 8 or 12; as individual- and trial-level surrogate endpoints for long-term clinical outcome. Results Time to culture negative status on LJ or in MGIT, time to smear negative status and daily rate of change in log10(TTP) were each independent predictors of clinical outcome, adjusted for treatment (p <0.001). However, discrimination between low and high risk patients, as measured by the c-statistic, was modest and not much higher than the reference model adjusted for BMI, history of smoking, HIV status, cavitation, gender and MGIT TTP. Conclusions Culture conversion during treatment for tuberculosis, however measured, has only a limited role in decision-making for advancing regimens into phase III trials or in predicting the outcome of treatment for individual patients. REMoxTB ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT00864383.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Tests of the Accelerating Universe with Near-Infrared Observations of a High-Redshift Type Ia Supernova

We have measured the rest-frame B,V, and I-band light curves of a high-redshift type Ia supernova (SN Ia), SN 1999Q (z=0.46), using HST and ground-based near-infrared detectors. A goal of this study is the measurement of the color excess, E_{B-I}, which is a sensitive indicator of interstellar or intergalactic dust which could affect recent cosmological measurements from high-redshift SNe Ia. Our observations disfavor a 30% opacity of SN Ia visual light by dust as an alternative to an accelerating Universe. This statement applies to both Galactic-type dust (rejected at the 3.4 sigma confidence level) and greyer dust (grain size > 0.1 microns; rejected at the 2.3 to 2.6 sigma confidence level) as proposed by Aguirre (1999). The rest-frame $I$-band light cur ve shows the secondary maximum a month after B maximum typical of nearby SNe Ia of normal luminosi ty, providing no indication of evolution as a function of redshift out to z~0.5. A n expanded set of similar observations could improve the constraints on any contribution of extragalactic dust to the dimming of high-redshift SNe Ia.Comment: Accepted to the Astrophysical Journal, 12 pages, 2 figure

The driver landscape of sporadic chordoma.

Chordoma is a malignant, often incurable bone tumour showing notochordal differentiation. Here, we defined the somatic driver landscape of 104 cases of sporadic chordoma. We reveal somatic duplications of the notochordal transcription factor brachyury (T) in up to 27% of cases. These variants recapitulate the rearrangement architecture of the pathogenic germline duplications of T that underlie familial chordoma. In addition, we find potentially clinically actionable PI3K signalling mutations in 16% of cases. Intriguingly, one of the most frequently altered genes, mutated exclusively by inactivating mutation, was LYST (10%), which may represent a novel cancer gene in chordoma.Chordoma is a rare often incurable malignant bone tumour. Here, the authors investigate driver mutations of sporadic chordoma in 104 cases, revealing duplications in notochordal transcription factor brachyury (T), PI3K signalling mutations, and mutations in LYST, a potential novel cancer gene in chordoma

Development of strategies for effective communication of food risks and benefits across Europe: Design and conceptual framework of the FoodRisC project

The FoodRisC project is funded under the Seventh Framework Programme (CORDIS FP7) of the European Commission; Grant agreement no.: 245124. Copyright @ 2011 Barnett et al.BACKGROUND: European consumers are faced with a myriad of food related risk and benefit information and it is regularly left up to the consumer to interpret these, often conflicting, pieces of information as a coherent message. This conflict is especially apparent in times of food crises and can have major public health implications. Scientific results and risk assessments cannot always be easily communicated into simple guidelines and advice that non-scientists like the public or the media can easily understand especially when there is conflicting, uncertain or complex information about a particular food or aspects thereof. The need for improved strategies and tools for communication about food risks and benefits is therefore paramount. The FoodRisC project ("Food Risk Communication - Perceptions and communication of food risks/benefits across Europe: development of effective communication strategies") aims to address this issue. The FoodRisC project will examine consumer perceptions and investigate how people acquire and use information in food domains in order to develop targeted strategies for food communication across Europe.METHODS/DESIGN: This project consists of 6 research work packages which, using qualitative and quantitative methodologies, are focused on development of a framework for investigating food risk/benefit issues across Europe, exploration of the role of new and traditional media in food communication and testing of the framework in order to develop evidence based communication strategies and tools. The main outcome of the FoodRisC project will be a toolkit to enable coherent communication of food risk/benefit messages in Europe. The toolkit will integrate theoretical models and new measurement paradigms as well as building on social marketing approaches around consumer segmentation. Use of the toolkit and guides will assist policy makers, food authorities and other end users in developing common approaches to communicating coherent messages to consumers in Europe.DISCUSSION: The FoodRisC project offers a unique approach to the investigation of food risk/benefit communication. The effective spread of food risk/benefit information will assist initiatives aimed at reducing the burden of food-related illness and disease, reducing the economic impact of food crises and ensuring that confidence in safe and nutritious food is fostered and maintained in Europe.This article is available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund

Individual-Based Modeling of Amazon Forests Suggests That Climate Controls Productivity While Traits Control Demography

Climate, species composition, and soils are thought to control carbon cycling and forest structure in Amazonian forests. Here, we add a demographics scheme (tree recruitment, growth, and mortality) to a recently developed non-demographic model—the Trait-based Forest Simulator (TFS)—to explore the roles of climate and plant traits in controlling forest productivity and structure. We compared two sites with differing climates (seasonal vs. aseasonal precipitation) and plant traits. Through an initial validation simulation, we assessed whether the model converges on observed forest properties (productivity, demographic and structural variables) using datasets of functional traits, structure, and climate to model the carbon cycle at the two sites. In a second set of simulations, we tested the relative importance of climate and plant traits for forest properties within the TFS framework using the climate from the two sites with hypothetical trait distributions representing two axes of functional variation (“fast” vs. “slow” leaf traits, and high vs. low wood density). The adapted model with demographics reproduced observed variation in gross (GPP) and net (NPP) primary production, and respiration. However, NPP and respiration at the level of plant organs (leaf, stem, and root) were poorly simulated. Mortality and recruitment rates were underestimated. The equilibrium forest structure differed from observations of stem numbers suggesting either that the forests are not currently at equilibrium or that mechanisms are missing from the model. Findings from the second set of simulations demonstrated that differences in productivity were driven by climate, rather than plant traits. Contrary to expectation, varying leaf traits had no influence on GPP. Drivers of simulated forest structure were complex, with a key role for wood density mediated by its link to tree mortality. Modeled mortality and recruitment rates were linked to plant traits alone, drought-related mortality was not accounted for. In future, model development should focus on improving allocation, mortality, organ respiration, simulation of understory trees and adding hydraulic traits. This type of model that incorporates diverse tree strategies, detailed forest structure and realistic physiology is necessary if we are to be able to simulate tropical forest responses to global change scenarios

Hubble Space Telescope and Ground-Based Observations of Type Ia Supernovae at Redshift 0.5: Cosmological Implications

We present observations of the Type Ia supernovae (SNe) 1999M, 1999N, 1999Q, 1999S, and 1999U, at redshift z~0.5. They were discovered in early 1999 with the 4.0~m Blanco telescope at Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory by the High-z Supernova Search Team (HZT) and subsequently followed with many ground-based telescopes. SNe 1999Q and 1999U were also observed with the Hubble Space Telescope. We computed luminosity distances to the new SNe using two methods, and added them to the high-z Hubble diagram that the HZT has been constructing since 1995. The new distance moduli confirm the results of previous work. At z~0.5, luminosity distances are larger than those expected for an empty universe, implying that a ``Cosmological Constant,'' or another form of ``dark energy,'' has been increasing the expansion rate of the Universe during the last few billion years.Comment: 68 pages, 22 figures. Scheduled for the 01 February 2006 issue of Ap.J. (v637

Spot sputum samples are at least as good as early morning samples for identifying Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Supported by the Global Alliance for TB Drug Development with support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership (Grant IP.2007.32011.011), US Agency for International Development, UK Department for International Development, Directorate General for International Cooperation of the Netherlands, Irish Aid, Australia Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, National Institutes of Health, AIDS Clinical Trials Group. The study was also supported by grants from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) (UM1AI068634, UM1 AI068636, and UM1AI106701) and by NIAID grants to the University of KwaZulu Natal, South Africa, AIDS Clinical Trials Group (ACTG) site 31422 (1U01AI069469); to the Perinatal HIV Research Unit, Chris Hani Baragwanath Hospital, South Africa, ACTG site 12301 (1U01AI069453); and to the Durban International Clinical Trials Unit, South Africa, ACTG site 11201 (1U01AI069426). Bayer Healthcare for donated moxifloxacin and Sanofi donated rifampin.Background:  The use of early morning sputum samples (EMS) to diagnose tuberculosis (TB) can result in treatment delay given the need for the patient to return to the clinic with the EMS, increasing the chance of patients being lost during their diagnostic workup. However, there is little evidence to support the superiority of EMS over spot sputum samples. In this new analysis of the REMoxTB study, we compare the diagnostic accuracy of EMS with spot samples for identifying Mycobacterium tuberculosis pre- and post-treatment. Methods:  Patients who were smear positive at screening were enrolled into the study. Paired sputum samples (one EMS and one spot) were collected at each trial visit pre- and post-treatment. Microscopy and culture on solid LJ and liquid MGIT media were performed on all samples; those missing corresponding paired results were excluded from the analyses. Results:  Data from 1115 pre- and 2995 post-treatment paired samples from 1931 patients enrolled in the REMoxTB study were analysed. Patients were recruited from South Africa (47%), East Africa (21%), India (20%), Asia (11%), and North America (1%); 70% were male, median age 31 years (IQR 24–41), 139 (7%) co-infected with HIV with a median CD4 cell count of 399 cells/μL (IQR 318–535). Pre-treatment spot samples had a higher yield of positive Ziehl–Neelsen smears (98% vs. 97%, P = 0.02) and LJ cultures (87% vs. 82%, P = 0.006) than EMS, but there was no difference for positivity by MGIT (93% vs. 95%, P = 0.18). Contaminated and false-positive MGIT were found more often with EMS rather than spot samples. Surprisingly, pre-treatment EMS had a higher smear grading and shorter time-to-positivity, by 1 day, than spot samples in MGIT culture (4.5 vs. 5.5 days, P < 0.001). There were no differences in time to positivity in pre-treatment LJ culture, or in post-treatment MGIT or LJ cultures. Comparing EMS and spot samples in those with unfavourable outcomes, there were no differences in smear or culture results, and positive results were not detected earlier in Kaplan–Meier analyses in either EMS or spot samples. Conclusions:  Our data do not support the hypothesis that EMS samples are superior to spot sputum samples in a clinical trial of patients with smear positive pulmonary TB. Observed small differences in mycobacterial burden are of uncertain significance and EMS samples do not detect post-treatment positives any sooner than spot samples.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe