Population dynamics and harvest management of eastern mallards

Managing sustainable harvest of wildlife populations requires regular collection of demographic data and robust estimates of demographic parameters. Estimates can then be used to develop a harvest strategy to guide decision‐making. Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) are an important species in the Atlantic Flyway for many users and they exhibited exponential growth in the eastern United States between the 1970s and 1990s. Since then, estimates of mallard abundance have declined 16%, prompting the Atlantic Flyway Council and United States Fish and Wildlife Service to implement more restrictive hunting regulations and develop a new harvest strategy predicated on an updated population model. Our primary objective was to develop an integrated population model (IPM) for use in an eastern mallard harvest management strategy. We developed an IPM using annual estimates of breeding abundance, 2‐season banding and recovery data, and hunterharvest data from 1998 to 2018.When developing the model, we used novel model selection methods to test various forms of a submodel for survival including estimating the degree of harvest additivity and any age‐specific trends. The top survival sub‐model included a negative annual trend on juvenile survival. The IPM posterior estimates for population abundance tracked closely with the observed estimates and estimates of mean annual population growth rate ranged from 0.88 to 1.08. Our population model provided increased precision in abundance estimates compared to survey methods for use in an updated harvest strategy. The IPM posterior estimates of survival rates were relatively stable for adult cohorts, and annual growth rate was positively correlated with the female age ratio, a measure of reproduction. Either or both of those demographic parameters, juvenile survival or reproduction, could be a target for management efforts to address the population decline. The resulting demographic parameters provided information on the equilibrium population size and can be used in an adaptive harvest strategy for mallards in eastern North America

Population dynamics and harvest management of eastern mallards

Managing sustainable harvest of wildlife populations requires regular collection of demographic data and robust estimates of demographic parameters. Estimates can then be used to develop a harvest strategy to guide decision‐making. Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) are an important species in the Atlantic Flyway for many users and they exhibited exponential growth in the eastern United States between the 1970s and 1990s. Since then, estimates of mallard abundance have declined 16%, prompting the Atlantic Flyway Council and United States Fish and Wildlife Service to implement more restrictive hunting regulations and develop a new harvest strategy predicated on an updated population model. Our primary objective was to develop an integrated population model (IPM) for use in an eastern mallard harvest management strategy. We developed an IPM using annual estimates of breeding abundance, 2‐season banding and recovery data, and hunterharvest data from 1998 to 2018.When developing the model, we used novel model selection methods to test various forms of a submodel for survival including estimating the degree of harvest additivity and any age‐specific trends. The top survival sub‐model included a negative annual trend on juvenile survival. The IPM posterior estimates for population abundance tracked closely with the observed estimates and estimates of mean annual population growth rate ranged from 0.88 to 1.08. Our population model provided increased precision in abundance estimates compared to survey methods for use in an updated harvest strategy. The IPM posterior estimates of survival rates were relatively stable for adult cohorts, and annual growth rate was positively correlated with the female age ratio, a measure of reproduction. Either or both of those demographic parameters, juvenile survival or reproduction, could be a target for management efforts to address the population decline. The resulting demographic parameters provided information on the equilibrium population size and can be used in an adaptive harvest strategy for mallards in eastern North America

Evaluating Common Raven Take for Greater Sage-Grouse in Oregon’s Baker County Priority Conservation Area and Great Basin Region

The common raven (Corvus corax; raven) is a nest predator of species of conservation concern, such as the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). Reducing raven abundance by take requires authorization under the Migratory Bird Treaty Act. To support U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s take decisions (e.g., those that authorize killing a specified proportion or number of individuals annually in a defined area), including the most recent one for Oregon’s Baker County Priority Area for Conservation (PAC), we modeled raven population dynamics under hypothetical scenarios with take rates ranging from below to above the maximum sustained yield (MSY; i.e., trmsy= 0.01-0.60). We fit a Bayesian state-space logistic model to estimate abundance based on the Breeding Bird Survey route-level count data for the PAC during 1997-2019 and Great Basin Region (GBR) during 1968-2019. We predicted abundance for 2019-2030 and evaluated potential take levels (PTL) for the PAC and GBR. Abundance averaged 682 (SE = 93) for the PAC during 1997-2019 and 333,027 (SE = 20,504) for the GBR during 1968-2019. With take rates between 0.41 and 0.60, predicted abundance averaged 308 (SD = 405) for the PAC and 142,258 (SD = 53,474) for the GBR during 2019-2030. With management factor F = 0.75-2 for takes ranging from below to above the MSY, the PTL 50th percentiles were 150-401 yr-1 for the PAC and 60,457-161,219 yr-1 for the GBR. Our modeling framework is flexible and can be part of a comprehensive management strategy for ravens in the western United States

Data from: Disentangling density-dependent dynamics using full annual cycle models and Bayesian model weight updating

Density dependence regulates populations of many species across all taxonomic groups. Understanding density dependence is vital for predicting the effects of climate, habitat loss and/or management actions on wild populations. Migratory species likely experience seasonal changes in the relative influence of density dependence on population processes such as survival and recruitment throughout the annual cycle. These effects must be accounted for when characterizing migratory populations via population models. To evaluate effects of density on seasonal survival and recruitment of a migratory species, we used an existing full annual cycle model framework for American black ducks Anas rubripes, and tested different density effects (including no effects) on survival and recruitment. We then used a Bayesian model weight updating routine to determine which population model best fit observed breeding population survey data between 1990 and 2014. The models that best fit the survey data suggested that survival and recruitment were affected by density dependence and that density effects were stronger on adult survival during the breeding season than during the non-breeding season. Analysis also suggests that regulation of survival and recruitment by density varied over time. Our results showed that different characterizations of density regulations changed every 8–12 years (three times in the 25-year period) for our population. Synthesis and applications. Using a full annual cycle, modelling framework and model weighting routine will be helpful in evaluating density dependence for migratory species in both the short and long term. We used this method to disentangle the seasonal effects of density on the continental American black duck population which will allow managers to better evaluate the effects of habitat loss and potential habitat management actions throughout the annual cycle. The method here may allow researchers to hone in on the proper form and/or strength of density dependence for use in models for conservation recommendations

Updating movement estimates for American black ducks (Anas rubripes)

Understanding migratory connectivity for species of concern is of great importance if we are to implement management aimed at conserving them. New methods are improving our understanding of migration; however, banding (ringing) data is by far the most widely available and accessible movement data for researchers. Here, we use band recovery data for American black ducks (Anas rubripes) from 1951–2011 and analyze their movement among seven management regions using a hierarchical Bayesian framework. We showed that black ducks generally exhibit flyway fidelity, and that many black ducks, regardless of breeding region, stopover or overwinter on the Atlantic coast of the United States. We also show that a non-trivial portion of the continental black duck population either does not move at all or moves to the north during the fall migration (they typically move to the south). The results of this analysis will be used in a projection modeling context to evaluate how habitat or harvest management actions in one region would propagate throughout the continental population of black ducks. This analysis may provide a guide for future research and help inform management efforts for black ducks as well as other migratory species

Evaluation of harvest and information needs for North American sea ducks

<div><p>Wildlife managers routinely seek to establish sustainable limits of sport harvest or other regulated forms of take while confronted with considerable uncertainty. A growing body of ecological research focuses on methods to describe and account for uncertainty in management decision-making and to prioritize research and monitoring investments to reduce the most influential uncertainties. We used simulation methods incorporating measures of demographic uncertainty to evaluate risk of overharvest and prioritize information needs for North American sea ducks (Tribe <i>Mergini</i>). Sea ducks are popular game birds in North America, yet they are poorly monitored and their population dynamics are poorly understood relative to other North American waterfowl. There have been few attempts to assess the sustainability of harvest of North American sea ducks, and no formal harvest strategy exists in the U.S. or Canada to guide management. The popularity of sea duck hunting, extended hunting opportunity for some populations (i.e., special seasons and/or bag limits), and population declines have led to concern about potential overharvest. We used Monte Carlo simulation to contrast estimates of allowable harvest and observed harvest and assess risk of overharvest for 7 populations of North American sea ducks: the American subspecies of common eider (<i>Somateria mollissima dresseri</i>), eastern and western populations of black scoter (<i>Melanitta americana</i>) and surf scoter (<i>M</i>. <i>perspicillata</i>), and continental populations of white-winged scoter (<i>M</i>. <i>fusca</i>) and long-tailed duck (<i>Clangula hyemalis</i>). We combined information from empirical studies and the opinions of experts through formal elicitation to create probability distributions reflecting uncertainty in the individual demographic parameters used in this assessment. Estimates of maximum growth (<i>r</i>_max), and therefore of allowable harvest, were highly uncertain for all populations. Long-tailed duck and American common eider appeared to be at high risk of overharvest (i.e., observed harvest < allowable harvest in 5–7% and 19–26% of simulations, respectively depending on the functional form of density dependence), whereas the other populations appeared to be at moderate risk to low risk (observed harvest < allowable harvest in 22–68% of simulations, again conditional on the form of density dependence). We also evaluated the sensitivity of the difference between allowable and observed harvest estimates to uncertainty in individual demographic parameters to prioritize information needs. We found that uncertainty in overall fecundity had more influence on comparisons of allowable and observed harvest than adult survival or observed harvest for all species except long-tailed duck. Although adult survival was characterized by less uncertainty than individual components of fecundity, it was identified as a high priority information need given the sensitivity of growth rate and allowable harvest to this parameter. Uncertainty about population size was influential in the comparison of observed and allowable harvest for 5 of the 6 populations where it factored into the assessment. While this assessment highlights a high degree of uncertainty in allowable harvest, it provides a framework for integration of improved data from future research and monitoring. It could also serve as the basis for harvest strategy development as management objectives and regulatory alternatives are specified by the management community.</p></div

Sensitivity of the difference between allowable and observed harvest to individual demographic parameters as measured by the slope of linear relationships between the harvest difference and standardized values of the demographic parameters, where greater absolute slope indicates higher sensitivity.

<p><b>Slope is affected by both the inherent sensitivity of growth rate and, hence, allowable harvest, to each parameter and its relative proportional uncertainty. Bars reflecting relative proportional uncertainty represent the coefficient of variation for non-binomial parameters or concentration for binomial parameters and, in both cases, have been multiplied by 100 (divided by 1000 for eiders) for scaling and presentation purposes.</b> (A) western surf scoter, (B) white-winged scoter.</p