Perspectives on subnational carbon and climate footprints: A case study of Southampton, UK

Sub-national governments are increasingly interested in local-level climate change management. Carbon- (CO2 and CH4) and climate-footprints—(Kyoto Basket GHGs) (effectively single impact category LCA metrics, for global warming potential) provide an opportunity to develop models to facilitate effective mitigation. Three approaches are available for the footprinting of sub-national communities. Territorial-based approaches, which focus on production emissions within the geo-political boundaries, are useful for highlighting local emission sources but do not reflect the transboundary nature of sub-national community infrastructures. Transboundary approaches, which extend territorial footprints through the inclusion of key cross boundary flows of materials and energy, are more representative of community structures and processes but there are concerns regarding comparability between studies. The third option, consumption-based, considers global GHG emissions that result from final consumption (households, governments, and investment). Using a case study of Southampton, UK, this chapter develops the data and methods required for a sub-national territorial, transboundary, and consumption-based carbon and climate footprints. The results and implication of each footprinting perspective are discussed in the context of emerging international standards. The study clearly shows that the carbon footprint (CO2 and CH4 only) offers a low-cost, low-data, universal metric of anthropogenic GHG emission and subsequent management

Interpreting predictive maps of disease, highlighting the pitfalls of species distribution models in epidemiology

This is the authors' PDF version of an article published in Geospatial Health© 2014. The definitive version is available at http://geospatialhealth.netThe application of spatial modelling to epidemiology has increased significantly over the past decade, delivering enhanced understanding of the environmental and climatic factors affecting disease distributions and providing spatially continuous representations of disease risk (predictive maps). These outputs provide significant information for disease control programmes, allowing spatial targeting and tailored interventions. However, several factors (e.g. sampling protocols or temporal disease spread) can influence predictive mapping outputs. This paper proposes a conceptual framework which defines several scenarios and their potential impact on resulting predictive outputs, using simulated data to provide an exemplar. It is vital that researchers recognise these scenarios and their influence on predictive models and their outputs, as a failure to do so may lead to inaccurate interpretation of predictive maps. As long as these considerations are kept in mind, predictive mapping will continue to contribute significantly to epidemiological research and disease control planning.This work was supported by the Medical Research Council (PMA, NAW - projects G0902445 and MR/J012343/1). The funders had no role in the decision to publish or in preparation of the manuscript

Modelling the effects of changing habitat characteristics and spatial pattern on woodland songbird distributions in West and Central Scotland

This study investigated bird distributions in relation to local habitat and landscape pattern and the implications which habitat fragmentation may have for woodland birds. There were two sections to the research: an experimental study investigating bird gap crossing behaviour across distances of five to 120m; and an observational study modelling woodland bird distributions in relation to local habitat and landscape scale variables in two study areas (East Loch Lomond and the Central Scotland Forest). In the experimental study it was hypothesised that bird willingness to cross gaps will decrease with increasing gap distance even at home-range scales and that the rate of decline will vary interspecifically in relation to bird morphology. Song thrush mobbing calls played at woodland edges in the West of Scotland were used to attract birds across gaps and results were compared with the response along woodland edges. Data were obtained for four species: chaffinch, coal tit, robin and goldcrest. The decline in response with distance across gaps and along woodland edge was modelled for each species using generalized linear modelling. Maximum gap crossing distances ranged from 46m (goldcrest) to 150m (extrapolated value for the chaffinch). Goldcrests responded more readily through woodlands. There was no difference between woodland edge and gap response for the coal tit. Robins and chaffinches however responded more readily across gaps than through woodland. When different response indices were plotted against bird mass and wing area, results suggested that larger birds with bigger wings responded more readily across gaps than through woodland. It is suggested that this relates to differences in bird manoeuvrability within woodlands and ability to evade a predator in gaps. Fragmentation indices were calculated for an area of the Central Scotland Forest to show how willingness to cross different gap distances influences perception of how fragmented the woodlands are in a region. Results are discussed in the context of the creation of Forest Habitat Networks. The data for the observational section of the work was from bird point counts for 200 sample points at East Loch Lomond in 1998 and 2000 and 267 sample points in the Central Scotland Forest in 1999. In addition a time series of point count data was available for 30 sample points at East Loch Lomond. Additional data was gathered for ten sample points (1998) and two sample points (2000) at East Loch Lomond to investigate effects of observer, time and weather on count data. Generalized linear and generalized additive modelling was carried out on these additional data. Results indicated that biases due to the variation in time and weather conditions between counts existed in the pure count data but that these were eliminated by reducing data to presence and absence form for analysis. Species accumulation curves indicated that two counts per sample point were insufficient to determine species richness. However a sufficiently large proportion of the species was being detected consistently in two counts of ten minutes duration for it to be valid to model them in relation to habitat and landscape variables. Point count data for East Loch Lomond in 1998 (ELL98) and the Central Scotland Forest in 1999 (CSF99) for the wren, treecreeper, garden warbler, robin, blue tit, blackbird, willow warbler, coal tit, goldcrest, great tit, and song thrush were analysed using generalized additive modelling. In addition models were built for the blackcap (CSF99) and the siskin, redstart and wood warbler (ELL98). Where all relationships were identified as linear, models were rebuilt as GLMs. Models were evaluated using the Area Under the Curve (AUC) of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) plots. AUC values ranged from 0.84-0.99 for ELL98 and from 0.76-0.93 for CSF99 indicating high predictive accuracy. Habitat variables accounted for the largest proportion of explained variation in all models and could be interpreted in terms of bird nesting and feeding behaviour. However additional variation was explained by landscape scale and fragmentation related (especially edge) variables. ELL98 models were used to predict bird distributions for Loch Lomond in 2000 (ELL00) and for the CSF99. Likewise the CSF99 models were used to predict distributions for ELL98 and ELL00. Predicted distributions had useful application in many cases within the ELL site between years. Fewer cases of useful application arose for predicting distributions between sites. Results are discussed in the context of the generality of bird environment relationships and reasons for low predictive accuracy when models are applied between sites and years. Models which had useful application for ELL00 were used to predict bird distributions for 2025 and 2050 at East Loch Lomond. Habitat and landscape changes were projected based on the proposed management for the site. Since woodland regeneration rates are difficult to predict, two scenarios were modelled, one assuming a modest amount of regeneration and one assuming no regeneration. Predictions derived from the ELL98 models showed broad-leaved species increasing in distribution while coniferous species declined. This was in keeping with the expected changes in the relative extent of broad-leaved and coniferous habitat. However, predictions from the CSF99 models were often less readily explicable. The value of the modelling approach is discussed and suggestions are made for further study to improve confidence in the predictions.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceUniversity of StirlingGBUnited Kingdo

Distance to edges, edge contrast and landscape fragmentation: interactions affecting farmland birds arounf forest plantations

Afforestation often causes direct habitat losses for farmland birds of conservation concern, but it is uncertain whether negative effects also extend significantly into adjacent open land. Information is thus required on how these species react to wooded edges, and how their responses are affected by edge and landscape characteristics. These issues were examined in Mediterranean arable farmland, using bird counts at 0, 100, 200, 300 and >300 m from oak, pine and eucalyptus edges, embedded in landscapes with variable amounts and spatial configurations of forest plantations. Bird diversity declined away from edges, including that of woodland, farmland and ground-nesting birds. Positive edge responses were also found for overall and woodland bird abundances, and for five of the nine most widespread and abundant species (Galerida larks, stonechat, linnet, goldfinch and corn bunting). Strong negative edge effects were only recorded for steppe birds, with reduced abundances near edges of calandra larks and short-toed larks, but not of little bustards and tawny pipits. Edge contrast affected the magnitude of edge effects, with a tendency for stronger responses to old and tall eucalyptus plantations (hard edges) than to young and short oak plantations (soft edges). There were also species-specific interactions between edge and fragmentation effects, with positive edge responses tending to be strongest in less fragmented landscapes, whereas steppe birds tended to increase faster away from edges and to reach the highest species richness and abundances in large arable patches. Results suggest that forest plantations may increase overall bird diversity and abundance in adjacent farmland, at the expenses of steppe birds of conservation concern

Modelling forest landscape dynamics in Glen Affric, northern Scotland

Consideration of forest management at the landscape scale is essential if commitments to the conservation of biodiversity are to be upheld. The ecosystem management approach, developed largely in North America, has made use of various landscape modelling tools to assist in planning for biodiversity maintenance and ecological restoration. The roles of habitat suitability models, metapopulation models, spatially explicit population models (SEPMs) and forest landscape dynamics models (FLDMs) in the planning process are discussed and a review of forest dynamics models is presented. Potential is identified for developing landscape models in the UK for both landscape restoration projects and semi-natural woodland management. Glen Affric, in northern Scotland contains a large area of native pine and birch woodland and is the subject of a long-term restoration project. A new model, GALDR (Glen Affric Landscape Dynamics Reconstruction) is introduced and is believed to be the first FLDM developed for British woodland. The theory behind the model is described in detail and preliminary results and sensitivity analyses are presented. Furthermore, GALAM (Glen Affric Lichen Abundance Model), a new SEPM for the rare epiphytic lichen Bryoria furcellata is also described. Results of simulations from the linked GALDR and GALAM models are presented which shed light on the role of landscape heterogeneity in determining the dynamics of lichen habitats and populations. It is concluded that, whilst much work will be required to develop a management-oriented decision support system from the GALDR model, the modelling process may aid researchers in the identification of knowledge gaps in ecological theory relevant to management and restoration.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGreat Britain. Forestry CommissionGBUnited Kingdo

Spatial analysis of habitat quality in a fragmented population of little bustard (Tetrax tetrax): Implications for conservation

P. 45-56Little bustard populations have suffered reduction and isolation as a consequence of landscape transformations resulting from changes in traditional agricultural systems. Consequently, the species survives within reduced and fragmentary habitats, like islands isolated in a modified matrix. In this paper, we analyze the spatial variations in male density and habitat quality in a fragmented population located at the limit of the species’ Iberian range, which is affected by agricultural intensification, using a regional modelling approach. Habitat quality (quantified according to the species perception) and bird density decreased along the intensification gradient. However, in the most intensive agricultural zone, the quality of habitats selected by little bustard males increased, while density decreased, against the expected. In possible explanation, we suggest: (1) density is not necessarily a good indicator of habitat quality, (2) population could be under-saturated in this zone, (3) interannual variations in species distribution, or (4) other relevant variables related to the agricultural intensification process not included in this analysis, such as small-scale disturbances. Analysis of population distribution pattern showed a spatial configuration in which the most densely populated squares were located at the core of the biggest population patches, in contact with mid-density squares, and all surrounded by low-density squares. Fragmentation negatively affected habitat quality and male density. Largest population patches, containing higher density values, were located at the beginning of the intensification gradient. Preservation of little bustard densities is related to an adequate management of the farming system. Habitat fragmentation requires an urgent conservation strategy to prevent local and regional scale habitat deterioration, by reducing patch isolation to maintain genetic diversification and functional connectivity

Sex Difference in Cardiovascular Risk Role of Pulse Pressure Amplification

ObjectivesThe study was to explore whether the brachial/carotid pulse pressure (B/C-PP) ratio selectively predicts the sex difference in age-related cardiovascular (CV) death.BackgroundHypertension and CV complications are more severe in men and post-menopausal women than in pre-menopausal women. C-PP is lower than B-PP, and the B/C-PP ratio is a physiological marker of PP amplification between B and C arteries that tends toward 1.0 with age.MethodsThe study involved 72,437 men (ages 41.0 ± 11.1 years) and 52,714 women (39.5 ± 11.6 years). C-PP was calculated for each sex by a multiple regression analysis including B-PP, age, height and risk factors, and a method validated beforehand in a subgroup of 834 subjects. During the 12 years of follow-up, 3,028 men and 969 women died.ResultsIn the total population, the adjusted hazard ratios (HR) (95% confidence interval [CI]) of B/C-PP ratio were: 1) for all-cause mortality: men, HR: 1.51 (95% CI: 1.47 to 1.56), women; HR: 2.46 (95% CI: 2.27 to 2.67) (p < 0.0001); and 2) for CV mortality: men, HR 1.81 (95% CI: 1.70 to 1.93); women, HR: 4.46 (95% CI: 3.66 to 5.45) (p < 0.0001). The B/C-PP impact on mortality did not significantly increase from younger men to those ≥55 years of age, from: HR: 1.44 (95% CI: 1.31 to 1.58) to HR 1.65 (95% CI: 1.48 to 1.84), but increased significantly with age in women: HR: 3.19 (95% CI: 2.08 to 4.89) versus HR: 5.60 (95% CI: 4.17 to 7.50) (p < 0.01). Thus, the mortality impact of B/C-PP ratio was 3-fold higher in women than in men ≥55 years old.ConclusionsPP amplification is highly predictive of differences in CV risk between men and women. In post-menopausal women, the attenuation of PP amplification, mainly related to increased aortic stiffness, contributes to the significant increase in CV risk

Maximum entropy niche-based modelling of seasonal changes in little bustard (Tetrax tetrax) distribution

P. 17-29The effects of habitat fragmentation on species may change seasonally mainly due to variations in resource availability and biotic interactions. In critical periods, such as winter, when the importance of intraspecific competition diminish, species may relax their environmental requirements widening their ecological niche to exploit the scarcer trophic resources more efficiently in comparison with spring. Those variations in niche width may implicate seasonal expansions/retractions in species distribution. In this sense, an integrated knowledge on the spatial arrangement of breeding and wintering suitable patches is essential to infer seasonal movements (migratory connectivity). This paper shows that little bustard environmental preferences were more predictable and complex (controlled by a larger number of environmental factors) in spring than in winter, when potential distribution and ecological niche width were slightly larger. In spring, habitat variables (i.e. percentage of dry crops and pasturelands and altitude) ruled species’ distribution; while, winter pattern was driven by mixed criteria, based on both habitat and climate (i.e. percentage of dry crops and wastelands and winter rainfall). Suitable patches were more connected across spatial scales in winter than in spring, i.e. landscape was perceived as less fragmented. The overlap between potential breeding and wintering distribution areas was high. In fact, most of the predicted wintering areas coincided or showed high connectedness with predicted breeding patches. Conversely, there were significant breeding patches that were predicted with low suitability, showing little connectedness with potential winter areas. Spring habitat was a better predictor of little bustard’s wintering range than vice versa, which has clear management implications (preserving breeding sites closer to wintering areas ensures the conservation of a larger proportion of the total distribution range). This is an example of how predictive large-scale modeling procedures can contribute to the optimization of land management aimed at species conservation.S

A multi-species modelling approach to examine the impact of alternative climate change adaptation strategies on range shifting ability in a fragmented landscape

An individual-based model of animal dispersal and population dynamics was used to test the effects of different climate change adaptation strategies on species range shifting ability, namely the improvement of existing habitat, restoration of low quality habitat and creation of new habitat. These strategies were implemented on a landscape typical of fragmentation in the United Kingdom using spatial rules to differentiate between the allocation of strategies adjacent to or away from existing habitat patches. The total area being managed in the landscape was set at realistic levels based on recent habitat management trends. Eight species were parameterised to broadly represent different stage structure, population densities and modes of dispersal. Simulations were initialised with the species occupying 20% of the landscape and run for 100 years. As would be expected for a range of real taxa, range shifting abilities were dramatically different. This translated into large differences in their responses to the adaptation strategies. With conservative (0.5%) estimates of the area prescribed for climate change adaptation, few species display noticeable improvements in their range shifting, demonstrating the need for greater investment in future adaptation. With a larger (1%) prescribed area, greater range shifting improvements were found, although results were still species-specific. It was found that increasing the size of small existing habitat patches was the best way to promote range shifting, and that the creation of new stepping stone features, whilst beneficial to some species, did not have such broad effect across different species

Synthesis of a disulfide cross-linked DNA triple helix

An intramolecular DNA triple helix incorporating a disulfide cross-link has been synthesized. Potassium permanganate footprinting and UV melting analysis demonstrate that the cross-link increases the conformational stability of this novel triplex at physiological pH and [Mg2+] relative to the unmodified sequence.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/31493/1/0000415.pd