Bistability of the climate around the habitable zone: a thermodynamic investigation

The goal of this paper is to explore the potential multistability of the climate of a planet around the habitable zone. A thorough investigation of the thermodynamics of the climate system is performed for very diverse conditions of energy input and infrared atmosphere opacity. Using PlaSim, an Earth-like general circulation model, the solar constant S* is modulated between 1160 and 1510 Wm-2 and the CO2 concentration, [CO2], from 90 to 2880 ppm. It is observed that in such a parameter range the climate is bistable, i.e. there are two coexisting attractors, one characterised by warm, moist climates (W) and one by completely frozen sea surface (Snowball Earth, SB). Linear relationships are found for the two transition lines (W\rightarrowSB and SB\rightarrowW) in (S*,[CO2]) between S* and the logarithm of [CO2]. The dynamical and thermodynamical properties - energy fluxes, Lorenz energy cycle, Carnot efficiency, material entropy production - of the W and SB states are very different: W states are dominated by the hydrological cycle and latent heat is prominent in the material entropy production; the SB states are predominantly dry climates where heat transport is realized through sensible heat fluxes and entropy mostly generated by dissipation of kinetic energy. We also show that the Carnot efficiency regularly increases towards each transition between W and SB, with a large decrease in each transition. Finally, we propose well-defined empirical functions allowing for expressing the global non-equilibrium thermodynamical properties of the system in terms of either the mean surface temperature or the mean planetary emission temperature. This paves the way for the possibility of proposing efficient parametrisations of complex non-equilibrium properties and of practically deducing fundamental properties of a planetary system from a relatively simple observable

Tropical and Extratropical Controls of Gulf of California Surges and Summertime Precipitation over the Southwestern United States

In this study ERA-Interim data are used to study the influence of Gulf of California (GoC) moisture surges on the North American monsoon (NAM) precipitation over Arizona and western New Mexico (AZWNM), as well as the connection with larger-scale tropical and extratropical variability. To identify GoC surges, an improved index based on principal component analyses of the near-surface GoC winds is introduced. It is found that GoC surges explain up to 70% of the summertime rainfall over AZWNM. The number of surges that lead to enhanced rainfall in this region varies from 4 to 18 per year and is positively correlated with annual summertime precipitation. Regression analyses are performed to explore the relationship between GoC surges, AZWNM precipitation, and tropical and extratropical atmospheric variability at the synoptic (2–8 days), quasi-biweekly (10–20 days), and subseasonal (25–90 days) time scales. It is found that tropical and extratropical waves, responsible for intrusions of moist tropical air into midlatitudes, interact on all three time scales, with direct impacts on the development of GoC surges and positive precipitation anomalies over AZWNM. Strong precipitation events in this region are, however, found to be associated with time scales longer than synoptic, with the quasi-biweekly and subseasonal modes playing a dominant role in the occurrence of these more extreme events

Climate of Earth-like planets with high obliquity and eccentric orbits: implications for habitability conditions

We explore the effects of seasonal variability for the climate of Earth-like planets as determined by the two parameters polar obliquity and orbital eccentricity using a general circulation model of intermediate complexity. In the first part of the paper we examine the consequences of different values of obliquity and eccentricity for the spatio-temporal patterns of radiation and surface temperatures as well as for the main characteristics of the atmospheric circulations. In the second part we analyse the associated implications for the habitability of planets close to the outer edge of the habitable zone (HZ). This part of the paper focuses in particular on the multistability property of climate, i.e. the parallel existence of both an ice-free and an ice-covered climate state. Our results show that seasonal variability affects both the existence of and transitions between the two climate states. Moreover, our experiments reveal that planets with Earth-like atmospheres and high seasonal variability can have ice-free areas at much larger distance from the host star than planets without seasonal variability, which leads to a substantial expansion of the outer edge of the HZ. Sensitivity experiments exploring the role of azimuthal obliquity and surface heat capacity test the robustness of our results. On circular orbits, our findings obtained with a general circulation model agree well with previous studies based on one dimensional energy balance models, whereas significant differences are found on eccentric orbits

Magnetoquasistatic resonances of small dielectric objects

A small dielectric object with positive permittivity may resonate when the free-space wavelength is large in comparison with the object dimensions if the permittivity is sufficiently high. We show that these resonances are described by the magnetoquasistatic approximation of the Maxwell's equations in which the normal component of the displacement current density field vanishes on the surface of the particle. They are associated to values of permittivities and frequencies for which source-free quasistatic magnetic fields exist, which are connected to the eigenvalues of a magnetostatic integral operator. We present the general physical properties of magnetoquasistatic resonances in dielectrics with arbitrary shape. They arise from the interplay between the polarization energy stored in the dielectric and the energy stored in the magnetic field. Our findings improve the understanding of resonances in high-permittivity dielectric objects and provide a powerful tool that greatly simplifies the analysis and design of high-index resonators

Seasonal cycle of precipitation over major river basins in South and Southeast Asia: a review of the CMIP5 climate models data for present climate and future climate projections

We review the skill of thirty coupled climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in terms of reproducing properties of the seasonal cycle of precipitation over the major river basins of South and Southeast Asia (Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra and Mekong) for the historical period (1961–2000). We also present how these models represent the impact of climate change by the end of century (2061–2100) under the extreme scenario RCP8.5. First, we assess the models' ability to reproduce the observed timings of the monsoon onset and the rate of rapid fractional accumulation (RFA) slope — a measure of seasonality within the active monsoon period. Secondly, we apply a threshold-independent seasonality index (SI) — a multiplicative measure of precipitation (P) and extent of its concentration relative to uniform distribution (relative entropy — RE). We apply SI distinctly over the monsoonal precipitation regime (MPR), westerly precipitation regime (WPR) and annual precipitation. For the present climate, neither any single model nor the multi-model mean performs best in all chosen metrics. Models show overall a modest skill in suggesting right timings of the monsoon onset while the RFA slope is generally underestimated. One third of the models fail to capture the monsoon signal over the Indus basin. Mostly, the estimates for SI during WPR are higher than observed for all basins. When looking at MPR, the models typically simulate an SI higher (lower) than observed for the Ganges and Brahmaputra (Indus and Mekong) basins, following the pattern of overestimation (underestimation) of precipitation. Most of the models are biased negative (positive) for RE estimates over the Brahmaputra and Mekong (Indus and Ganges) basins, implying the extent of precipitation concentration for MPR and number of dry days within WPR lower (higher) than observed for these basins. Such skill of the CMIP5 models in representing the present-day monsoonal hydroclimatology poses some caveats on their ability to represent correctly the climate change signal. Nevertheless, considering the majority-model agreement as a measure of robustness for the qualitative scale projected future changes, we find a slightly delayed onset, and a general increase in the RFA slope and in the extent of precipitation concentration (RE) for MPR. Overall, a modest inter-model agreement suggests an increase in the seasonality of MPR and a less intermittent WPR for all basins and for most of the study domain. The SI-based indicator of change in the monsoonal domain suggests its extension westward over northwest India and Pakistan and northward over China. These findings have serious implications for the food and water security of the region in the future

Tropical and Extratropical Controls of Gulf of California Surges and Summertime Precipitation over the Southwestern United States

In this study ERA-Interim data are used to study the influence of Gulf of California (GoC) moisture surges on the North American monsoon (NAM) precipitation over Arizona and western New Mexico (AZWNM), as well as the connection with larger-scale tropical and extratropical variability. To identify GoC surges, an improved index based on principal component analyses of the near-surface GoC winds is introduced. It is found that GoC surges explain up to 70% of the summertime rainfall over AZWNM. The number of surges that lead to enhanced rainfall in this region varies from 4 to 18 per year and is positively correlated with annual summertime precipitation. Regression analyses are performed to explore the relationship between GoC surges, AZWNM precipitation, and tropical and extratropical atmospheric variability at the synoptic (2–8 days), quasi-biweekly (10–20 days), and subseasonal (25–90 days) time scales. It is found that tropical and extratropical waves, responsible for intrusions of moist tropical air into midlatitudes, interact on all three time scales, with direct impacts on the development of GoC surges and positive precipitation anomalies over AZWNM. Strong precipitation events in this region are, however, found to be associated with time scales longer than synoptic, with the quasi-biweekly and subseasonal modes playing a dominant role in the occurrence of these more extreme events

Insights for the future of health system partnerships in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic literature review

BACKGROUND: Despite growing support for the private sector involvement in the provision of public health services in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs), a lack of clear information on the future of the provision of such services restricts the ability of managers and policy-makers to assess how feasible integration between public and private actors may be in these countries. This paper presents a systematic literature review which traces the dynamics and boundaries of public-private partnerships for the healthcare sector in LMICs. METHODS: A total of 723 articles indexed in Scopus were initially submitted to bibliometric analysis. Finally, 148 articles published in several academic journals were selected for independent full-text review by two researchers. Content analysis was made in order to minimise mistakes in interpreting the findings of studies in the sample. RESULTS: Public-private partnerships identified through the content analysis were categorised into four research areas: 1) Transfer of resources; 2) Co-production of health goods and services; 3) Governance networks; 4) Criteria for successful partnership development. CONCLUSIONS: The four main research areas supply suggestions for a future research agenda, and managerial and policy implications for partnerships in LMICs

Mathematical and physical ideas for climate science

The climate is a forced and dissipative nonlinear system featuring nontrivial dynamics on a vast range of spatial and temporal scales. The understanding of the climate's structural and multiscale properties is crucial for the provision of a unifying picture of its dynamics and for the implementation of accurate and efficient numerical models. We present some recent developments at the intersection between climate science, mathematics, and physics, which may prove fruitful in the direction of constructing a more comprehensive account of climate dynamics. We describe the Nambu formulation of fluid dynamics and the potential of such a theory for constructing sophisticated numerical models of geophysical fluids. Then, we focus on the statistical mechanics of quasi-equilibrium flows in a rotating environment, which seems crucial for constructing a robust theory of geophysical turbulence. We then discuss ideas and methods suited for approaching directly the nonequilibrium nature of the climate system. First, we describe some recent findings on the thermodynamics of climate, characterize its energy and entropy budgets, and discuss related methods for intercomparing climate models and for studying tipping points. These ideas can also create a common ground between geophysics and astrophysics by suggesting general tools for studying exoplanetary atmospheres. We conclude by focusing on nonequilibrium statistical mechanics, which allows for a unified framing of problems as different as the climate response to forcings, the effect of altering the boundary conditions or the coupling between geophysical flows, and the derivation of parametrizations for numerical models

Is ventilated hospital-acquired pneumonia a worse entity than ventilator-associated pneumonia?

IntroductionNosocomial pneumonia develops after ≥48 h of hospitalisation and is classified as ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) and hospital-acquired pneumonia (HAP); the latter may require mechanical ventilation (V-HAP) or not (NV-HAP).Main findingsVAP and HAP affect a significant proportion of hospitalised patients and are characterised by poor clinical outcomes. Among them, V-HAP has the greatest 28-day mortality rate followed by VAP and NV-HAP (27.8% versus 18% versus 14.5%, respectively). However, no differences in terms of pathophysiology, underlying microbiological pathways and subsequent therapy have been identified. International guidelines suggest specific flow charts to help clinicians in the therapeutic management of such diseases; however, there are no specific recommendations beyond VAP and HAP classification. HAP subtypes are scarcely considered as different entities and the lack of data from the clinical scenario limits any final conclusion. Hopefully, recent understanding of the pathophysiology of such diseases, as well as the discovery of new therapies, will improve the outcome associated with such pulmonary infections.ConclusionNosocomial pneumonia is a multifaced disease with features of pivotal interest in critical care medicine. Due to the worrisome data on mortality of patients with nosocomial pneumonia, further prospective studies focused on this topic are urgently needed

The proliferation marker Ki67, but not neuroendocrine expression, is an independent factor in the prediction of prognosis of primary prostate cancer patients

Background. Neuroendocrine markers, which could indicate for aggressive variants of prostate cancer and Ki67 (a well-known marker in oncology for defining tumor proliferation), have already been associated with clinical outcome in prostate cancer. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of those markers in primary prostate cancer patients. Patients and methods. NSE (neuron specific enolase), ChrA (chromogranin A), Syp (Synaptophysin) and Ki67 stain- ing were performed by immunohistochemistry. Then, the prognostic impact of their expression on overall survival was investigated in 166 primary prostate cancer patients by univariate and multivariate analyses. Results. NSE, ChrA, Syp and Ki67 were positive in 50, 45, 54 and 146 out of 166 patients, respectively. In Kaplan-Meier analysis only diffuse NSE staining (negative vs associated with overall survival. Ki67 expression, but not NSE, resulted as an independent prognostic factor for overall survival in multivariate analysis. Conclusions. A prognostic model incorporating Ki67 expression with clinical-pathological covariates could provide additional prognostic information. Ki67 may thus improve prediction of prostate cancer outcome based on standard clinical-pathological parameters improving prognosis and management of prostate cancer patients