Image analysis and statistical modelling for measurement and quality assessment of ornamental horticulture crops in glasshouses

Image analysis for ornamental crops is discussed with examples from the bedding plant industry. Feed-forward artificial neural networks are used to segment top and side view images of three contrasting species of bedding plants. The segmented images provide objective measurements of leaf and flower cover, colour, uniformity and leaf canopy height. On each imaging occasion, each pack was scored for quality by an assessor panel and it is shown that image analysis can explain 88.5%, 81.7% and 70.4% of the panel quality scores for the three species, respectively. Stereoscopy for crop height and uniformity is outlined briefly. The methods discussed here could be used for crop grading at marketing or for monitoring and assessment of growing crops within a glasshouse during all stages of production

A comparison of methods for treatment selection in seamless phase II/III clinical trials incorporating information on short-term endpoints

In an adaptive seamless phase II/III clinical trial interim analysis data are used for treatment selection, enabling resources to be focussed on comparison of more effective treatment(s) with a control. In this paper we compare two methods recently proposed to enable use of short-term endpoint data for decision-making at the interim analysis. The comparison focusses on the power and the probability of correctly identifying the most promising treatment. We show that the choice of method depends on how well short-term data predict the best treatment, which may be measured by the correlation between treatment effects on short-term and long-term endpoints

Emulating Simulations of Cosmic Dawn for 21cm Power Spectrum Constraints on Cosmology, Reionization, and X-ray Heating

Current and upcoming radio interferometric experiments are aiming to make a statistical characterization of the high-redshift 21cm fluctuation signal spanning the hydrogen reionization and X-ray heating epochs of the universe. However, connecting 21cm statistics to underlying physical parameters is complicated by the theoretical challenge of modeling the relevant physics at computational speeds quick enough to enable exploration of the high dimensional and weakly constrained parameter space. In this work, we use machine learning algorithms to build a fast emulator that mimics expensive simulations of the 21cm signal across a wide parameter space to high precision. We embed our emulator within a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo framework, enabling it to explore the posterior distribution over a large number of model parameters, including those that govern the Epoch of Reionization, the Epoch of X-ray Heating, and cosmology. As a worked example, we use our emulator to present an updated parameter constraint forecast for the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array experiment, showing that its characterization of a fiducial 21cm power spectrum will considerably narrow the allowed parameter space of reionization and heating parameters, and could help strengthen Planck's constraints on $\sigma_8$. We provide both our generalized emulator code and its implementation specifically for 21cm parameter constraints as publicly available software.Comment: 22 pages, 9 figures; accepted to Ap

An evaluation of the quality of statistical design and analysis of published medical research : results from a systematic survey of general orthopaedic journals

Background: The application of statistics in reported research in trauma and orthopaedic surgery has become ever more important and complex. Despite the extensive use of statistical analysis, it is still a subject which is often not conceptually well understood, resulting in clear methodological flaws and inadequate reporting in many papers. Methods: A detailed statistical survey sampled 100 representative orthopaedic papers using a validated questionnaire that assessed the quality of the trial design and statistical analysis methods. Results: The survey found evidence of failings in study design, statistical methodology and presentation of the results. Overall, in 17% (95% confidence interval; 10–26%) of the studies investigated the conclusions were not clearly justified by the results, in 39% (30–49%) of studies a different analysis should have been undertaken and in 17% (10–26%) a different analysis could have made a difference to the overall conclusions. Conclusion: It is only by an improved dialogue between statistician, clinician, reviewer and journal editor that the failings in design methodology and analysis highlighted by this survey can be addressed

A randomised controlled trial of total hip arthroplasty versus resurfacing arthroplasty in the treatment of young patients with arthritis of the hip joint

Background: Hip replacement (arthroplasty) surgery is a highly successful treatment for patients with severe symptomatic arthritis of the hip joint. For older patients, several designs of Total Hip Arthroplasty have shown excellent results in terms of both function and value for money. However, in younger more active patients, there is approximately a 50% failure rate at 25 years for traditional implants. Hip resurfacing is a relatively new arthroplasty technique. In a recent review of the literature on resurfacing arthroplasty it was concluded that the short-term functional results appear promising but some potential early disadvantages were identified, including the risk of femoral neck fracture and collapse of the head of the femur. The aim of the current study is to assess whether there is a difference in functional hip scores at one year post-operation between Total Hip Arthroplasty and Resurfacing Arthroplasty. Secondary aims include assessment of complication rates for both procedures as well cost effectiveness. Methods/design: All patients medically fit for surgery and deemed suitable for a resurfacing arthroplasty are eligible to take part in this study. A randomisation sequence will be produced and administered independently. After consenting, all patients will be clinically reviewed and hip function, quality of life and physical activity level will be assessed through questionnaires. The allocated surgery will then be performed with the preferred technique of the surgeon. Six weeks post-operation hip function will be assessed and complications recorded. Three, six and 12 months post-operation hip function, quality of life and physical activity level will be assessed. Additional information about patients' out-of-pocket expenses will also be collected

Outcome assessment after hip fracture : is EQ-5D the answer?

Objectives: To study the measurement properties of a joint specific patient reported outcome measure, a measure of capability and a general health-related quality of life (HRQOL) tool in a large cohort of patients with a hip fracture. Methods: Responsiveness and associations between the Oxford Hip Score (a hip specific measure: OHS), ICEpop CAPability (a measure of capability in older people: ICECAP-O) and EuroQol EQ-5D (general health-related quality of life measure: EQ-5D) were assessed using data available from two large prospective studies. The three outcome measures were assessed concurrently at a number of fixed follow-up time-points in a consecutive sequence of patients, allowing direct assessment of change from baseline, inter-measure associations and validity using a range of statistical methods. Results: ICECAP-O was not responsive to change. EQ-5D was responsive to change from baseline, with an estimated standardised effect size for the two datasets of 0.676 and 0.644 at six weeks and four weeks respectively; this was almost as responsive to change as OHS (1.14 at four weeks). EQ-5D correlated strongly with OHS; Pearson correlation coefficients were 0.74, 0.77 and 0.70 at baseline, four weeks and four months. EQ-5D is a moderately good predictor of death at 12 months following hip fracture. Furthermore, EQ-5D reported by proxies (relatives and carers) behaves similarly to self-reported scores. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that a general HRQOL tool such as EQ-5D could be used to measure outcome for patients recovering from hip fracture, including those with cognitive impairment

Repolr : an R package for fitting proportional-odds models to repeated ordinal scores

Modelling repeated ordinal score data is a common statistical problem, across many application areas. The proportional-odds model is widely applied to such repeated ordinal scores and can be fitted in the repolr package (repeated measures proportional odds logistic regression) in R using the method of generalized estimating equations (GEE). The GEE approach specifies a model for the mean of the correlated observations within clusters of repeated scores for each individual without fully specifying the joint distribution of the observations. This paper describes the core features of package repolr, which has undergone extensive changes since the first release in 2008, for the first time. A number of example datasets and extensive R code are used to illustrate a range of data analysis tasks that users of repolr may typically wish to undertake

Warwick hip trauma study : a randomised clinical trial comparing interventions to improve outcomes in internally fixed intracapsular fractures of the proximal femur : protocol for The WHiT Study

Background Controversy exists regarding the optimal treatment for patients with displaced intracapsular fractures of the proximal femur. The recognised treatment alternatives are arthroplasty and internal fixation. The principal criticism of internal fixation is the high rate of non-union; up to 30% of patients will have a failure of the fixation leading to revision surgery. We believe that improved fracture healing may lead to a decreased rate of failure of fixation. We therefore propose to investigate strategies to both accelerate fracture healing and improve fixation that may significantly improve outcomes after internal fixation of intracapsular femoral fractures. We aim to test the clinical effectiveness of the osteoinductive agent platelet rich plasma and conduct a pilot study of a novel fixed-angle fixation system. Design We have planned a three arm, single centre, standard-of-care controlled, double blinded, pragmatic, randomised clinical trial. The trial will include a standard two-way comparison between platelet-rich plasma and standard-of-care fixation versus standard-of-care fixation alone. In addition there will be a subsidiary pilot arm testing a fixed-angle screw and plate fixation system

All interventions differ, although some are more different than others

It is a well-known statement of statistical wisdom that all treatments differ. We could substitute the word ‘intervention’ or the phrase ‘surgical procedure’ for ‘treatment’ and qualify the word ‘differ’ by, for instance, saying “have different outcomes”. Yet, in doing so we challenge far more than semantics, questioning the relevance of much of the research reported in The Bone and Joint Journal, and the wider medical literature. For example, the DRAFFT study compared the clinical effectiveness of Kirschner wire fixation with locking plate fixation for patients with a dorsally displaced fracture of the distal radius. Selectively picking out the key result of the paper one would conclude that there was no difference in outcomes between the two groups; thus that there was no difference between the treatments. This result seems to contradict the first statement in this paragraph, which follows from the simple argument that by definition all treatments must be different because no two things can ever be exactly the same in every respect. This sounds like a matter of philosophical interest only, but understanding how we reconcile this apparent contradiction helps shed light on an issue that continues to be a cause of confusion for many authors submitting papers to our Journal