Risk of selection bias due to non-participation in a cohort study on pubertal timing.

BackgroundNon-participation in aetiologic studies of pubertal timing is frequent. However, little effort has been given to explore the risk and potential impact of selection bias in studies of pubertal timing.ObjectiveWe aimed to explore the risk of selection bias due to non-participation in a newly established puberty cohort.MethodsWe evaluated whether three maternal exposures chosen a priori (pre-pregnancy obesity, smoking, and alcohol drinking during pregnancy) were associated with participation, whether pubertal timing was associated with participation, and whether selection bias influenced the associations between these exposures and pubertal timing. In total, 22 439 children from the Danish National Birth Cohort born 2000-2003 were invited to the Puberty Cohort and 15 819 (70%) participated. Exposures were self-reported during pregnancy. Pubertal timing was measured using a previously validated marker, "the height difference in standard deviations" (HD:SDS), which is the difference between pubertal height and adult height, both in standard deviations. For this study, pubertal height at around 13 years in sons and around 11 years in daughters was obtained from an external database, and adult height was predicted based on parental height reported by mothers.ResultsParticipation was associated with most exposures but not with pubertal timing, measured by HD:SDS. The associations between exposures and HD:SDS were comparable for participants only and all invited for participation.ConclusionIn conclusion, the risk of selection bias in aetiologic studies on pubertal timing in the Puberty Cohort appears minimal

Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

Abstract Background The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date. It is common practice to apply the Kaplan\u2013Meier or Aalen\u2013Johansen estimator to the total sample and report either the estimated cumulative incidence curve or just a single point on the curve as a description of the disease risk. Methods We argue that, whenever the disease or disorder of interest is influenced by calendar time trends, the total sample Kaplan\u2013Meier and Aalen\u2013Johansen estimators do not provide useful estimates of the general risk in the target population. We present some alternatives to this type of analysis. Results We show how a proportional hazards model may be used to extrapolate disease risk estimates if proportionality is a reasonable assumption. If not reasonable, we instead advocate that a more useful description of the disease risk lies in the age-specific cumulative incidence curves across strata given by time of entry or perhaps just the end of follow-up estimates across all strata. Finally, we argue that a weighted average of these end of follow-up estimates may be a useful summary measure of the disease risk within the study period. Conclusions Time trends in a disease risk will render total sample estimators less useful in observational studies with staggered entry and administrative censoring. An analysis based on proportional hazards or a stratified analysis may be better alternatives

Run Clever - No difference in risk of injury when comparing progression in running volume and running intensity in recreational runners:A randomised trial

Background/aimThe Run Clever trial investigated if there was a difference in injury occurrence across two running schedules, focusing on progression in volume of running intensity (Sch-I) or in total running volume (Sch-V). It was hypothesised that 15% more runners with a focus on progression in volume of running intensity would sustain an injury compared with runners with a focus on progression in total running volume.MethodsHealthy recreational runners were included and randomly allocated to Sch-I or Sch-V. In the first eight weeks of the 24-week follow-up, all participants (n=839) followed the same running schedule (preconditioning). Participants (n=447) not censored during the first eight weeks entered the 16-week training period with a focus on either progression in intensity (Sch-I) or volume (Sch-V). A global positioning system collected all data on running. During running, all participants received real-time, individualised feedback on running intensity and running volume. The primary outcome was running-related injury (RRI).ResultsAfter preconditioning a total of 80 runners sustained an RRI (Sch-I n=36/Sch-V n=44). The cumulative incidence proportion (CIP) in Sch-V (reference group) were CIP2 weeks4.6%; CIP4 weeks8.2%; CIP8 weeks13.2%; CIP16 weeks28.0%. The risk differences (RD) and 95% CI between the two schedules were RD2 weeks=2.9%(−5.7% to 11.6%); RD4 weeks=1.8%(−9.1% to 12.8%); RD8 weeks=−4.7%(−17.5% to 8.1%); RD16 weeks=−14.0% (−36.9% to 8.9%).ConclusionA similar proportion of runners sustained injuries in the two running schedules.</jats:sec

Having children with multiple partners is associated with reduced risk of malignant melanoma: an observation seeking a plausible explanation

Anne V Olesen1,2,3, Erik T Parner4, Preben B Mortensen5, Cecilia H Ramlau-Hansen6, J&amp;oslash;rn Olsen71Institute of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology, University of Aarhus; 2Unit for Psychiatric Research, Aalborg Psychiatric Hospital; 3Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Aarhus University Hospital; 4Institute of Public Health, Department of Biostatistics; 5National Centre for Register-based Research; 6Department of Occupational Medicine, Aarhus University Hospital, Denmark; 7Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles, USAObjective: We examined the association between the number of partners that mothers and fathers have children with and occurrence of cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM).Methods: We conducted a complete registry-based follow-up of all Danish mothers born after 1935 from the birth of their second child until CMM, death, emigration, or end of study in 2002. We conducted a similar follow-up of the corresponding fathers. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) and confidence intervals (CI) were estimated by Poisson regression.Results: This study corroborates that women having children with three or more men are half as likely to have CMM as women who have children with one man: incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 0.51, 95% CI: 0.29, 0.91; having children by two fathers reduces risk among women by 20%: IRR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.70, 0.91. Fathers with multiple partners tend to face a similar risk reduction.Conclusion: The similar patterns of mothers and fathers challenge us to consider and propose likely mechanisms common to both sexes. The patterns of reduced risk have now been reported in two large independent complete population-based studies in Sweden and Denmark.Keywords: malignant melanoma, epidemiology, children with multiple partner

Diagnostic validity of early-onset obsessive-compulsive disorder in the Danish Psychiatric Central Register:findings from a cohort sample

Employing national registers for research purposes depends on a high diagnostic validity. The aim of the present study was to examine the diagnostic validity of recorded diagnoses of early-onset obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) in the Danish Psychiatric Central Register (DPCR)