The Evolution of Bias - Generalized

Fry (1996) showed that galaxy bias has the tendency to evolve towards unity, i.e. in the long run, the galaxy distribution tends to trace that of matter. Generalizing slightly Fry's reasoning, we show that his conclusion remains valid in theories of modified gravity (or equivalently, complex clustered dark energy). This is not surprising: as long as both galaxies and matter are subject to the same force, dynamics would drive them towards tracing each other. This holds, for instance, in theories where both galaxies and matter move on geodesics. This relaxation of bias towards unity is tempered by cosmic acceleration, however: the bias tends towards unity but does not quite make it, unless the formation bias were close to unity. Our argument is extended in a straightforward manner to the case of a stochastic or nonlinear bias. An important corollary is that dynamical evolution could imprint a scale dependence on the large scale galaxy bias. This is especially pronounced if non-standard gravity introduces new scales to the problem: the bias at different scales relaxes at different rates, the larger scales generally more slowly and retaining a longer memory of the initial bias. A consistency test of the current (general relativity + uniform dark energy) paradigm is therefore to look for departure from a scale independent bias on large scales. A simple way is to measure the relative bias of different populations of galaxies which are at different stages of bias relaxation. Lastly, we comment on the possibility of directly testing the Poisson equation on cosmological scales, as opposed to indirectly through the growth factor.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures. References added. Accepted for publication in Physical Review

Factors associated with undergraduate marijuana use in

Summary To examine cigarette, alcohol and drug use among undergraduates in University College, Cork a precoded questionnaire was mailed to 1 in 7 (458) students, chosen systematically. The response rate was 97 per cent. Twenty-three per cent of males and 13 per cent of females have taken marijuana at least once. Student use of marijuana was significantly related to leisure money available, belief in a God, frequency of attendance at religious services, attitudes to marriage partner drinking and to misdemeanour considered most serious. It appears that peer group pressures as illustrated by friends' drug taking, siblings' drug taking, encouragement by friends to take drugs and faculty, had a greater influence on student marijuana use than family related factors. Current cigarette use, pattern of drinking behaviour, use of other drugs and attitude to future marijuana use also had significant associations with marihuana-related behaviour

The Origin of Solar Activity in the Tachocline

Solar active regions, produced by the emergence of tubes of strong magnetic field in the photosphere, are restricted to within 35 degrees of the solar equator. The nature of the dynamo processes that create and renew these fields, and are therefore responsible for solar magnetic phenomena, are not well understood. We analyze the magneto-rotational stability of the solar tachocline for general field geometry. This thin region of strong radial and latitudinal differential rotation, between the radiative and convective zones, is unstable at latitudes above 37 degrees, yet is stable closer to the equator. We propose that small-scale magneto-rotational turbulence prevents coherent magnetic dynamo action in the tachocline except in the vicinity of the equator, thus explaining the latitudinal restriction of active regions. Tying the magnetic dynamo to the tachocline elucidates the physical conditions and processes relevant to solar magnetism.Comment: 10 pages, 1 figure, accepted for publication in ApJ

What do we really know about the appropriateness of radiation emitting imaging for low back pain in primary and emergency care? A systematic review and meta-analysis of medical record reviews

Background Since 2000, guidelines have been consistent in recommending when diagnostic imaging for low back pain should be obtained to ensure patient safety and reduce unnecessary tests. This systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to determine the pooled proportion of CT and x-ray imaging of the lumbar spine that were considered appropriate in primary and emergency care. Methods Pubmed, CINAHL, The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and Embase were searched for synonyms of “low back pain”, “guidelines”, and “adherence” that were published after 2000. Titles, abstracts, and full texts were reviewed for inclusion with forward and backward tracking on included studies. Included studies had data extracted and synthesized. Risk of bias was performed on all studies, and GRADE was performed on included studies that provided data on CT and x-ray separately. A random effect, single proportion meta-analysis model was used. Results Six studies were included in the descriptive synthesis, and 5 studies included in the meta-analysis. Five of the 6 studies assessed appropriateness of x-rays; two of the six studies assessed appropriateness of CTs. The pooled estimate for appropriateness of x-rays was 43% (95% CI: 30%, 56%) and the pooled estimate for appropriateness of CTs was 54% (95% CI: 51%, 58%). Studies did not report adequate information to fulfill the RECORD checklist (reporting guidelines for research using observational data). Risk of bias was high in 4 studies, moderate in one, and low in one. GRADE for x-ray appropriateness was low-quality and for CT appropriateness was very-low-quality. Conclusion While this study determined a pooled proportion of appropriateness for both x-ray and CT imaging for low back pain, there is limited confidence in these numbers due to the downgrading of the evidence using GRADE. Further research on this topic is needed to inform our understanding of x-ray and CT appropriateness in order to improve healthcare systems and decrease patient harms

Interatrial block in patients with obstructive sleep apnea

Background: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a common disorder that affects 5% of the adult North American population. It is associated with atrial arrhythmias and stroke. The mechanisms of this association remain unclear. The aim to the study was to identify the factors associated with interatrial block (IAB) among patients with OSA. Methods: Patients referred for polysomnography were studied. Sleep apnea severity (apnea-hypopnea index [AHI]) was measured in each subject. 12-lead ECGs were scanned and amplified (× 10); P-wave duration and dispersion were measured using a semi-automatic caliper. IAB was defined as a P-wave duration &#8805; 120 ms. Results: Data from 180 consecutive patients was examined. Moderate-severe OSA (mean AHI = 56.2 &#177; 27.9) was present in 144 (OSA group). The remaining 36 had mild or no OSA (mean AHI = 5.6 &#177; 3.6) and were used as controls. Age distribution between the groups did not differ and there were more males in the OSA group (69.4% vs 47.2%, p = 0.01). Obesity (78.5% vs 39.4%, p < 0.001) and hypertension (51.4% vs 27.8%, p < 0.01) were more prevalent in the OSA group. IAB was more prevalent in patients with moderate-severe OSA (34.7% OSA vs 0% controls, p 30 were independent predictors of maximum P-wave duration (p = 0.001 and p < 0.001, respectively). P-wave dispersion was significantly higher in the severe OSA group (14.6 &#177; 7.5 for OSA, 8.9 &#177; 3.1 controls, p < 0.001). Conclusions: Older age and moderate-severe OSA are predictors of IAB. P-wave dispersion is increased in patients with moderate-severe OSA. This may partly explain the high prevalence of atrial arrhythmias in patients with OSA. (Cardiol J 2011; 18, 2: 171-175

Differentiating dark energy and modified gravity with galaxy redshift surveys

The observed cosmic acceleration today could be due to an unknown energy component (dark energy), or a modification to general relativity (modified gravity). If dark energy models and modified gravity models are required to predict the same cosmic expansion history H(z), they will predict different growth rate for cosmic large scale structure, f_g(z)=d\ln \delta/d\ln a (\delta=(\rho_m-\bar{\rho_m})/\bar{\rho_m}), a is the cosmic scale factor). If gravity is not modified, the measured H(z) leads to a unique prediction for f_g(z), f_g^H(z). Comparing f_g^H(z) with the measured f_g(z) provides a transparent and straightforward test of gravity. We show that a simple \chi^2 test provides a general figure-of-merit for our ability to distinguish between dark energy and modified gravity given the measured H(z) and f_g(z). We study a magnitude-limited NIR galaxy redshift survey covering >10,000 (deg)^2 and the redshift range of 0.5<z<2. The resultant data can be divided into 7 redshift bins, and yield the measurement of H(z) to the accuracy of 1-2% via baryon acoustic oscillation measurements, and f_g(z) to the accuracy of a few percent via the measurement of redshift space distortions and the bias factor which describes how light traces mass. We find that if the H(z) data are fit by both a DGP gravity model and an equivalent dark energy model that predict the same expansion history, a survey area of 11,931 (deg)^2 is required to rule out the DGP gravity model at the 99.99% confidence level. It is feasible for such a galaxy redshift survey to be carried out by the next generation space missions from NASA and ESA, and it will revolutionize our understanding of the universe by differentiating between dark energy and modified gravity.Comment: 6 pages, 2 color figures. Expanded version accepted by JCA

On the compatibility of a flux transport dynamo with a fast tachocline scenario

The compatibility of the fast tachocline scenario with a flux transport dynamo model is explored. We employ a flux transport dynamo model coupled with simple feedback formulae relating the thickness of the tachocline to the amplitude of the magnetic field or to the Maxwell stress. The dynamo model is found to be robust against the nonlinearity introduced by this simplified fast tachocline mechanism. Solar-like butterfly diagrams are found to persist and, even without any parameter fitting, the overall thickness of the tachocline is well within the range admitted by helioseismic constraints. In the most realistic case of a time and latitude dependent tachocline thickness linked to the value of the Maxwell stress, both the thickness and its latitude dependence are in excellent agreement with seismic results. In the nonparametric models, cycle related temporal variations in tachocline thickness are somewhat larger than admitted by helioseismic constraints; we find, however, that introducing a further parameter into our feedback formula readily allows further fine tuning of the thickness variations.Comment: Accepted in Solar Physic

Post-outburst X-ray flux and timing evolution of Swift J1822.3-1606

Swift J1822.3-1606 was discovered on 2011 July 14 by the Swift Burst Alert Telescope following the detection of several bursts. The source was found to have a period of 8.4377 s and was identified as a magnetar. Here we present a phase-connected timing analysis and the evolution of the flux and spectral properties using RXTE, Swift, and Chandra observations. We measure a spin frequency of 0.1185154343(8) s$^{-1}$ and a frequency derivative of $-4.3\pm0.3\times10^{-15}$ at MJD 55761.0, in a timing analysis that include significant non-zero second and third frequency derivatives that we attribute to timing noise. This corresponds to an estimated spin-down inferred dipole magnetic field of $B\sim5\times10^{13}$ G, consistent with previous estimates though still possibly affected by unmodelled noise. We find that the post-outburst 1--10 keV flux evolution can be characterized by a double-exponential decay with decay timescales of $15.5\pm0.5$ and $177\pm14$ days. We also fit the light curve with a crustal cooling model which suggests that the cooling results from heat injection into the outer crust. We find that the hardness-flux correlation observed in magnetar outbursts also characterizes the outburst of Swift J1822.3-1606. We compare the properties of Swift J1822.3-1606 with those of other magnetars and their outbursts.Comment: 12 pages, 8 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

Penetrance of HNPCC-related cancers in a retrolective cohort of 12 large Newfoundland families carrying a MSH2 founder mutation: an evaluation using modified segregation models

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Accurate risk (penetrance) estimates for associated phenotypes in carriers of a major disease gene are important for genetic counselling of at-risk individuals. Population-specific estimates of penetrance are often needed as well. Families ascertained from high-risk disease clinics provide substantial data to estimate penetrance of a disease gene, but these estimates must be adjusted for possible specific sources of bias.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cohort of 12 independently ascertained HNPCC families harbouring a founder MSH2 mutation was identified from a cancer genetics clinic in St. John's, Newfoundland, Canada. Carrier status was known for 247 family members but phenotype information on up to 85 additional relatives with unknown carrier status was available; using modified segregation models these additional individuals could be included in the analyses. Three HNPCC-related phenotypes were evaluated as age at diagnosis of: any HNPCC cancer (first cancer), colorectal cancer (CRC), and endometrial cancer (EC) for females.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Lifetime (age 70) risk estimates for male and female carriers were similar for developing any HNPCC cancer (Males = 98.2%, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = (93.8%, 99.9%); Females = 92.8%, 95% CI = (82.4%, 99.1%)) but female carriers experienced substantially reduced lifetime risk for developing CRC compared to male carriers (Females = 38.9%, 95% CI = (24.2%, 62.1%); Males = 84.5%, 95% CI = (67.3%, 91.3%)). Female non-carriers had very low lifetime risk for these two outcomes while male non-carriers had lifetime risks intermediate to the female carriers and non-carriers. Female carriers had a lifetime risk of developing EC of 82.4%. Relative risks for developing any HNPCC cancer (carriers relative to non-carriers) were substantially greater for females compared to their male counterparts (Females = 54.8, 95%CI = (4.4, 379.8); Males = 9.7, 95% CI = (0.3, 23.8)). Relative risks for developing CRC at age 70 were substantially greater for females compared to their male counterparts (Females = 23.7, 95%CI = (5.6, 137.9); Males = 6.8%, 95% CI = (2.3, 66.2)). However, the risk of developing CRC decreased with age among both genders.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The proposed modified segregation-based models used to estimate age-specific risks for HNPCC phenotypes can reduce bias due to ascertainment and missing genotype information as well as provide estimates of absolute and relative risks.</p

An Anti-Glitch in a Magnetar

Magnetars are neutron stars showing dramatic X-ray and soft $\gamma$-ray outbursting behaviour that is thought to be powered by intense internal magnetic fields. Like conventional young neutron stars in the form of radio pulsars, magnetars exhibit "glitches" during which angular momentum is believed to be transferred between the solid outer crust and the superfluid component of the inner crust. Hitherto, the several hundred observed glitches in radio pulsars and magnetars have involved a sudden spin-up of the star, due presumably to the interior superfluid rotating faster than the crust. Here we report on X-ray timing observations of the magnetar 1E 2259+586 which we show exhibited a clear "anti-glitch" -- a sudden spin down. We show that this event, like some previous magnetar spin-up glitches, was accompanied by multiple X-ray radiative changes and a significant spin-down rate change. This event, if of origin internal to the star, is unpredicted in models of neutron star spin-down and is suggestive of differential rotation in the neutron star, further supporting the need for a rethinking of glitch theory for all neutron stars