Regional hazard analysis for use in vulnerability and risk assessment

A method for supporting an operational regional risk and vulnerability analysis for hydrological hazards is suggested and applied in the Island of Cyprus. The method aggregates the output of a hydrological flow model forced by observed temperatures and precipitations, with observed discharge data. A scheme supported by observed discharge is applied for model calibration. A comparison of different calibration schemes indicated that the same model parameters can be used for the entire country. In addition, it was demonstrated that, for operational purposes, it is sufficient to rely on a few stations. Model parameters were adjusted to account for land use and thus for vulnerability of elements at risk by comparing observed and simulated flow patterns, using all components of the hydrological model. The results can be used for regional risk and vulnerability analysis in order to increase the resilience of the affected population

Spatio-temporal analysis of present and future precipitation responses over South Germany

International audienc

Are farmers willing to pay for participatory climate information services? Insights from a case study in peri-urban Khulna, Bangladesh

Among technological adaptation options, climate information services (CIS) offers high potential as a means to offset climate change impacts and build resilience in farming areas of developing countries. This study explores the potential of CIS, by investigating the case of participatory CIS development in the Lower Ganges Delta of Bangladesh. Specifically, we examined the value farmers attached to a co-developed CIS as decision support tool and the price farmers were willing to pay for CIS subscriptions. Based on a hypothetical market for CIS, we used contingent valuation with a double-bounded dichotomous choice format to determine farmers willingness to pay (WTP) for CIS. Two samples were included: an experiment group of farmers exposed to and trained in CIS use for farm decision-making and a control group of farmers without prior exposure to CIS. More than 90% of farmers in the experiment group expressed willingness to pay for CIS, compared to 75% of the control group. The annual subscription fees farmers were willing to pay ranged from 970.92 taka (US $11.45) to 1387.20 taka ($16.36). WTP was greater among farmers who had participated in CIS co-development. The main factors influencing farmers’ willingness to pay were CIS cost and prior exposure and training to CIS. Given that Bangladesh has more than 16.5 million farm households, these findings suggest huge market potential for CIS. Based on the high potential of participatory CIS, governmental institutions, the private sector and social entrepreneurs are called upon to develop CIS for smallholders, to unlock smallholders’ agriculture potential

Flood risk and adaptation strategies for soybean production systems on the flood-prone pampas under climate change

In recent decades, multiple flood events have had a devastating impact on soybean production in Argentina. Recent advances suggest that the frequency and intensity of destructive flood events on the Argentinian Pampas will increase under pressure from climate change. This paper provides bottom-up insight into the flood risk for soybean production systems under climate change and the suitability of adaptation strategies in two of the most flood-prone areas of the Pampas re-gion. The flood risk perceptions of soybean producers were explored through interviews, translated into climatic indicators and then studied using a multi-model climate data analysis. Soybean producers perceived the present flood risk for rural accessibility to be of the highest concern, especially during the harvest and sowing seasons when heavy machinery needs to reach soybean lots. An analysis of climatic change projections found a rising trend in annual and harvest precipitation and a slight drying trend during the sowing season. This indicates that the flood risk for harvest accessibility may increase under climate change. Several adaptation strategies were identified that can systemically address flood risks, but these require collaborative action and cannot be undertaken by individual producers. The results suggest that if cooperative adaptation efforts are not made in the short term, the continued increase in flood risk may force soybean producers in the case study locations to shift away from soybean towards more robust land uses</p

Comparative analysis of soil erosion sensitivity using various quantizations within GIS environment : an application on Sperchios river basin in Central Greece

Soil erosion is a prominent cause of land degradation and desertification in Mediterranean countries. The detrimental effects of soil erosion are exemplified in climate (in particular climate change), topography, human activities and natural disasters. Modelling of erosion and deposition in complex terrains within a geographic information system (GIS) requires reliable estimation of topographic factors, as well as the formulation of erosion models adequate for digital representation of spatially distributed parameters. In the current paper, two different approaches for the estimation of erosion in the Sperchios river basin are described and evaluated using GIS – the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation and the Gavrilovič method. Implementing the ArcGIS 10.2.1 programme, the necessary input data for these approaches were estimated using four different quantizations that were created using topographic maps, courtesy of the Greek Geographical Army Service. The results indicated that even though a high-resolution quantization is always preferred for more reliable results, when there is a lack of available data, coarser quantizations can also be used to extract similar estimations.</p

Hydroclimatic information needs of smallholder farmers in the lower Bengal delta, Bangladesh

Hydroclimatic information services are vital for sustainable agricultural practices in deltas. They advance adaptation practices of farmers that lead to better economic benefit through increased yields, reduced production costs, and minimized crop damage. This research explores the hydroclimatic information needs of farmers by addressing (1) what kind of information is needed by the periurban delta farmers, and (2) whether information needs have any temporal dimension that changes with time following capacity building during coproduction of information services. Results reveal that the attributes of weather and water-related forecasts most affecting the farmers are rainfall, temperature, water, and soil salinity, along with extreme events such as cyclone and storm surges. The majority of the male farmers prefer one-to two-week lead-time forecasts for strategic and tactical decision-making; while female farmers prefer short-time forecasts with one-day to a week lead time that suggests the difference of purpose of the forecasts between male and female farmers. Contrarily, there is little preference for monthly, seasonal, and real-time forecasts. Information communication through a smartphone app is preferred mostly because of its easy accessibility and visualization. Farmers foresee that capacity building on acquiring hydroclimatic information is vital for agricultural decision-making. We conclude that a demand-driven coproduction of a hydroclimatic information service created through iterative interaction with and for farmers will enable the farmers to understand their information needs more explicitly.</p

Commercialization pathways for climate services for small holder farmers in the global South

Climate change disproportionally affects many countries in the Global South where smallholder farmers make up the majority of the agricultural sector. Weather and Climate Information Services (WCIS) bridge the gap between smallholder farmers and scientific weather forecasts to create actionable knowledge to assist farmers to make optimal agricultural decisions. Over the past years there has been a spur in WCIS initiatives targeting smallholder farmers. However, many projects fail to commercialize and create a long-term impact. The current study addresses this issue by studying potential commercialization pathways of WCIS for smallholder farmers in the Global South. WCIS representatives and experts were interviewed to reach a deeper understanding of the barriers and opportunities of different, potential commercialization pathways. The results indicate that there are multiple commercialization pathways for WCIS for smallholder farmers in the Global South. Projects may employ a wide variety of business development activities, partnerships and revenue models to sustain their business. Many WCIS rely on donor money, which poses a threat to the market and the commercialization process. The results suggest that a revenue model where a third party absorbs costs to the end-user is most promising, whereas a user-pay model seems to have the least potential. There are several possibilities for future scenarios for WCIS in the Global South such as to seek collaboration with the National Meteorological Departments, integrate with a partner in the value chain of smallholder farmers or to create an academic spin-off and become a service platform for smallholder farmers

Co-producing climate information services with smallholder farmers in the Lower Bengal Delta : How forecast visualization and communication support farmers’ decision-making

Farmers in the Bengal Delta are confronted with increasing hydroclimatic risks due to climate variability and change. The co-production of climate information services that address the farmers' needs could potentially assist farmers with climate-sensitive decision-making and managing their risks. This study aims to investigate how the co-production of climate information services through forecast visualization and communication has improved forecast uptake for climate-sensitive decision-making of smallholder farmers. We applied a farmer field school approach to communicating visual diagrams for 7-day, 14-day, and seasonal forecasts during face-to-face meetings using printed paper, and smartphone applications. Results show that diagram-based forecast visualization and a combined communication approach integrating face-to-face interaction using printed paper and a smartphone app have improved uptake of information services by farmers. Capacity building and frequent interactions at farmer field schools contribute to a better understanding and trust of visual forecasts, interpretation skills, and decision-making capacity of smallholder farmers. We conclude that the co-production effort with farmers combined with the capacity building has resulted in wider sharing, dissemination, and uptake of scientific forecasts for climate-sensitive decision-making by smallholders in the Lower Bengal Delta.</p

Regional hazard analysis for use in vulnerability and risk assessment

A method for supporting an operational regional risk and vulnerability analysis for hydrological hazards is suggested and applied in the Island of Cyprus. The method aggregates the output of a hydrological flow model forced by observed temperatures and precipitations, with observed discharge data. A scheme supported by observed discharge is applied for model calibration. A comparison of different calibration schemes indicated that the same model parameters can be used for the entire country. In addition, it was demonstrated that, for operational purposes, it is sufficient to rely on a few stations. Model parameters were adjusted to account for land use and thus for vulnerability of elements at risk by comparing observed and simulated flow patterns, using all components of the hydrological model. The results can be used for regional risk and vulnerability analysis in order to increase the resilience of the affected population

Verification of weather and seasonal forecast information concerning the peri-urban farmers’ needs in the lower ganges delta in bangladesh

Skillful weather and seasonal predictions have considerable socio-economic potential and could provide meaningful information to farmers and decision-makers towards agricultural planning and decision-making. Peri-urban farmers in the Lower Ganges Delta need skillful forecast information to deal with increased hydroclimatic variability. In the current study, verification of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ System 5 (ECMWF SEAS5) seasonal prediction system is performed against ground observations for the Lower Ganges Delta using three skills assessment metrics. Additionally, meteoblue hindcasts are verified for Khulna station according to the peri-urban farmers’ needs and an assessment of onset/offset dates of rainy season is also conducted using the same ground observations. The results indicated that the skill of both examined products is limited during the pre-monsoon and monsoon periods, especially in the west side of the Bay of Bengal. However, during the dry winter season, skill is high, which could lead to potential agricultural benefits concerning irrigation planning. Interannual variability and trend indicated that onset dates have become later and that the length of the rainy season reduced. This could increase the pressure on the already challenging situation the farmers are experiencing, in relation to hydro-climatic variability