Clinical usefulness of scoring systems to predict severe acute pancreatitis : A systematic review and meta-analysis with pre and post-test probability assessment

Scoring systems for severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) prediction should be used in conjunction with pre-test probability to establish post-test probability of SAP, but data of this kind are lacking.To investigate the predictive value of commonly employed scoring systems and their usefulness in modifying the pre-test probability of SAP.Following PRISMA statement and MOOSE checklists after PROSPERO registration, PubMed was searched from inception until September 2022. Retrospective, prospective, cross-sectional studies or clinical trials on patients with acute pancreatitis defined as Revised Atlanta Criteria, reporting rate of SAP and using at least one score among Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Examination (APACHE)-II, RANSON, and Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) with their sensitivity and specificity were included. Random effects model meta-analyses were performed. Pre-test probability and likelihood ratio (LR) were combined to estimate post-test probability on Fagan nomograms. Pooled severity rate was used as pre-test probability of SAP and pooled sensitivity and specificity to calculate LR and generate post-test probability. A priori hypotheses for heterogeneity were developed and sensitivity analyses planned.43 studies yielding 14,116 acute pancreatitis patients were included: 42 with BISAP, 30 with APACHE-II, 27 with Ranson, 8 with SIRS. Pooled pre-test probability of SAP ranged 16.6%-25.3%. The post-test probability of SAP with positive/negative score was 47%/6% for BISAP, 43%/5% for APACHE-II, 48%/5% for Ranson, 40%/12% for SIRS. In 18 studies comparing BISAP, APACHE-II, and Ranson in 6740 patients with pooled pre-test probability of SAP of 18.7%, post-test probability when scores were positive was 48% for BISAP, 46% for APACHE-II, 50% for Ranson. When scores were negative, post-test probability dropped to 7% for BISAP, 6% for Ranson, 5% for APACHE-II. Quality, design, and country of origin of the studies did not explain the observed high heterogeneity.The most commonly used scoring systems to predict SAP perform poorly and do not aid in decision-making

Enhanced Neutrophil Extracellular Trap Formation in Acute Pancreatitis Contributes to Disease Severity and Is Reduced by Chloroquine

Background: Neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs) are generated when activated neutrophils, driven by PAD4, release their DNA, histones, HMGB1, and other intracellular granule components. NETs play a role in acute pancreatitis, worsening pancreatic inflammation, and promoting pancreatic duct obstruction. The autophagy inhibitor chloroquine (CQ) inhibits NET formation; therefore, we investigated the impact of CQ mediated NET inhibition in murine models of pancreatitis and human correlative studies. Methods: L-arginine and choline deficient ethionine supplemented (CDE) diet models of acute pancreatitis were studied in wild type and PAD4−/− mice, incapable of forming NETs. Isolated neutrophils were stimulated to induce NET formation and visualized with fluorescence microscopy. CQ treatment (0.5 mg/ml PO) was initiated after induction of pancreatitis. Biomarkers of NET formation, including cell-free DNA, citrullinated histone H3 (CitH3), and MPO-DNA conjugates were measured in murine serum and correlative human patient serum samples. Results: We first confirmed the role of NETs in the pathophysiology of acute pancreatitis by demonstrating that PAD4−/− mice had decreased pancreatitis severity and improved survival compared to wild-type controls. Furthermore, patients with severe acute pancreatitis had elevated levels of cell-free DNA and MPO-DNA conjugates, consistent with NET formation. Neutrophils from mice with pancreatitis were more prone to NET formation and CQ decreased this propensity to form NETs. CQ significantly reduced serum cell-free DNA and citrullinated histone H3 in murine models of pancreatitis, increasing survival in both models. Conclusions: Inhibition of NETs with CQ decreases the severity of acute pancreatitis and improves survival. Translating these findings into clinical trials of acute pancreatitis is warranted

Enhanced Neutrophil Extracellular Trap Formation in Acute Pancreatitis Contributes to Disease Severity and Is Reduced by Chloroquine

Background: Neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs) are generated when activated neutrophils, driven by PAD4, release their DNA, histones, HMGB1, and other intracellular granule components. NETs play a role in acute pancreatitis, worsening pancreatic inflammation, and promoting pancreatic duct obstruction. The autophagy inhibitor chloroquine (CQ) inhibits NET formation; therefore, we investigated the impact of CQ mediated NET inhibition in murine models of pancreatitis and human correlative studies.Methods: L-arginine and choline deficient ethionine supplemented (CDE) diet models of acute pancreatitis were studied in wild type and PAD4−/− mice, incapable of forming NETs. Isolated neutrophils were stimulated to induce NET formation and visualized with fluorescence microscopy. CQ treatment (0.5 mg/ml PO) was initiated after induction of pancreatitis. Biomarkers of NET formation, including cell-free DNA, citrullinated histone H3 (CitH3), and MPO-DNA conjugates were measured in murine serum and correlative human patient serum samples.Results: We first confirmed the role of NETs in the pathophysiology of acute pancreatitis by demonstrating that PAD4−/− mice had decreased pancreatitis severity and improved survival compared to wild-type controls. Furthermore, patients with severe acute pancreatitis had elevated levels of cell-free DNA and MPO-DNA conjugates, consistent with NET formation. Neutrophils from mice with pancreatitis were more prone to NET formation and CQ decreased this propensity to form NETs. CQ significantly reduced serum cell-free DNA and citrullinated histone H3 in murine models of pancreatitis, increasing survival in both models.Conclusions: Inhibition of NETs with CQ decreases the severity of acute pancreatitis and improves survival. Translating these findings into clinical trials of acute pancreatitis is warranted

Rectal indomethacin alone versus indomethacin and prophylactic pancreatic stent placement for preventing pancreatitis after ERCP: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Abstract Background The combination of prophylactic pancreatic stent placement (PSP) – a temporary plastic stent placed in the pancreatic duct – and rectal non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) is recommended for preventing post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) pancreatitis (PEP) in high-risk cases. Preliminary data, however, suggest that PSP may be unnecessary if rectal NSAIDs are administered. Given the costs and potential risks of PSP, we aim to determine whether rectal indomethacin obviates the need for pancreatic stent placement in patients undergoing high-risk ERCP. Methods/Design The SVI (Stent vs. Indomethacin) trial is a comparative effectiveness, multicenter, randomized, double-blind, non-inferiority study of rectal indomethacin alone versus the combination of rectal indomethacin and PSP for preventing PEP in high-risk cases. One thousand four hundred and thirty subjects undergoing high-risk ERCP, in whom PSP is planned solely for PEP prevention, will be randomized to indomethacin alone or combination therapy. Those who are aware of study group assignment, including the endoscopist, will not be involved in the post-procedure care of the patient for at least 48 hours. Subjects will be assessed for PEP and its severity by a panel of independent and blinded adjudicators. Indomethacin alone will be declared non-inferior to combination therapy if the two-sided 95 % upper confidence bound of the treatment difference is less than 5 % between the two groups. Biological specimens will be obtained from trial participants and centrally banked. Discussion The SVI trial is designed to determine whether PSP remains necessary in the era of NSAIDs pharmacoprevention. The associated bio-repository will establish the groundwork for important scientific breakthrough. Trial registration NCT02476279, registered June 2015

Rectal indomethacin alone versus indomethacin and prophylactic pancreatic stent placement for preventing pancreatitis after ERCP: Study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Background: The combination of prophylactic pancreatic stent placement (PSP) - a temporary plastic stent placed in the pancreatic duct - and rectal non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) is recommended for preventing post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) pancreatitis (PEP) in high-risk cases. Preliminary data, however, suggest that PSP may be unnecessary if rectal NSAIDs are administered. Given the costs and potential risks of PSP, we aim to determine whether rectal indomethacin obviates the need for pancreatic stent placement in patients undergoing high-risk ERCP. Methods/Design: The SVI (Stent vs. Indomethacin) trial is a comparative effectiveness, multicenter, randomized, double-blind, non-inferiority study of rectal indomethacin alone versus the combination of rectal indomethacin and PSP for preventing PEP in high-risk cases. One thousand four hundred and thirty subjects undergoing high-risk ERCP, in whom PSP is planned solely for PEP prevention, will be randomized to indomethacin alone or combination therapy. Those who are aware of study group assignment, including the endoscopist, will not be involved in the post-procedure care of the patient for at least 48 hours. Subjects will be assessed for PEP and its severity by a panel of independent and blinded adjudicators. Indomethacin alone will be declared non-inferior to combination therapy if the two-sided 95 % upper confidence bound of the treatment difference is less than 5 % between the two groups. Biological specimens will be obtained from trial participants and centrally banked. Discussion: The SVI trial is designed to determine whether PSP remains necessary in the era of NSAIDs pharmacoprevention. The associated bio-repository will establish the groundwork for important scientific breakthrough

Worldwide Variations in Demographics, Management, and Outcomes of Acute Pancreatitis

Background & Aims Few studies have compared regional differences in acute pancreatitis. We analyzed data from an international registry of patients with acute pancreatitis to evaluate geographic variations in patient characteristics, management, and outcomes. Methods We collected data from the APPRENTICE registry of patients with acute pancreatitis, which obtains information from patients in Europe (6 centers), India (3 centers), Latin America (5 centers), and North America (8 centers) using standardized questionnaires. Our final analysis included 1,612 patients with acute pancreatitis (median age, 49 years; 53% male, 62% white) enrolled from August 2015 through January 2018. Results Biliary (45%) and alcoholic acute pancreatitis (21%) were the most common etiologies. Based on the revised Atlanta classification, 65% of patients developed mild disease, 23% moderate, and 12% severe. The mean age of patients in Europe (58 years) was older than mean age for all 4 regions (46 years) and a higher proportion of patients in Europe had comorbid conditions (73% vs 50% overall). The predominant etiology of acute pancreatitis in Latin America was biliary (78%), whereas alcohol-associated pancreatitis accounted for the highest proportion of acute pancreatitis cases in India (45%). Pain was managed with opioid analgesics in 93% of patients in North America versus 27% of patients in the other 3 regions. Cholecystectomies were performed at the time of hospital admission for most patients in Latin America (60% vs 15% overall). A higher proportion of European patients with severe acute pancreatitis died during the original hospital stay (44%) compared with the other 3 regions (15%). Conclusions We found significant variation in demographics, etiologies, management practices, and outcomes of acute pancreatitis worldwide

Incidence and risk factors of oral feeding intolerance in acute pancreatitis: Results from an international, multicenter, prospective cohort study

Background: Inability to advance to an oral diet, or oral feeding intolerance, is a common complication in patients with acute pancreatitis associated with worse clinical outcomes. The factors related to oral feeding intolerance are not well studied. Objective: We aimed to determine the incidence and risk factors of oral feeding intolerance in acute pancreatitis. Methods: Patients were prospectively enrolled in the Acute Pancreatitis Patient Registry to Examine Novel Therapies in Clinical Experience, an international acute pancreatitis registry, between 2015 and 2018. Oral feeding intolerance was defined as worsening abdominal pain and/or vomiting after resumption of oral diet. The timing of the initial feeding attempt was stratified based on the day of hospitalization. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to assess for independent risk factors/predictors of oral feeding intolerance. Results: Of 1233 acute pancreatitis patients included in the study, 160 (13%) experienced oral feeding intolerance. The incidence of oral feeding intolerance was similar irrespective of the timing of the initial feeding attempt relative to hospital admission day (p = 0.41). Patients with oral feeding intolerance were more likely to be younger (45 vs. 50 years of age), men (61% vs. 49%), and active alcohol users (44% vs. 36%). They also had higher blood urea nitrogen (20 vs. 15 mg/dl; p < 0.001) and hematocrit levels (41.7% vs. 40.5%; p = 0.017) on admission; were more likely to have a nonbiliary acute pancreatitis etiology (69% vs. 51%), systemic inflammatory response syndrome of 2 or greater on admission (49% vs. 35%) and at 48 h (50% vs. 26%), develop pancreatic necrosis (29% vs. 13%), moderate to severe acute pancreatitis (41% vs. 24%), and have a longer hospital stay (10 vs. 6 days; all p < 0.04). The adjusted analysis showed that systemic inflammatory response syndrome of 2 or greater at 48 h (odds ratio 3.10; 95% confidence interval 1.83-5.25) and a nonbiliary acute pancreatitis etiology (odds ratio 1.65; 95% confidence interval 1.01-2.69) were independent risk factors for oral feeding intolerance. Conclusion: Oral feeding intolerance occurs in 13% of acute pancreatitis patients and is independently associated with systemic inflammatory response syndrome at 48 h and a nonbiliary etiology

Pathways to Injury in Chronic Pancreatitis: Decoding the Role of the High-Risk SPINK1 N34S Haplotype Using Meta-Analysis

Background: The complex interactions between recurrent trypsin-mediated pancreatic injury, alcohol-associated pancreatic injury and SPINK1 polymorphisms in chronic pancreatitis (CP) are undefined. We hypothesize that CP occurs as a result of multiple pathological mechanisms (pathways) that are initiated by different metabolic or environmental factors (etiologies) and may be influenced differentially by downstream genetic risk factors. We tested this hypothesis by evaluating the differences in effect size of the high risk SPINK1 N34S haplotype on CP from multiple etiologies after combining clinical reports of SPINK1 N34S frequency using meta-analysis. Methods and Findings: The Pubmed and the Embase databases were reviewed. We studied 24 reports of SPINK1 N34S in CP (2,421 cases, 4,857 controls) using reported etiological factors as surrogates for pathways and multiple meta-analyses to determine the differential effects of SPINK1 N34S between alcoholic and non-alcoholic etiologies. Using estimates of between-study heterogeneity, we sub-classified our 24 studies into four specific clusters. We found that SPINK1 N34S is strongly associated with CP overall (OR 11.00; 95% CI: 7.59-15.93), but the effect of SPINK1 N34S in alcoholic CP (OR 4.98, 95% CI: 3.16-7.85) was significantly smaller than in idiopathic CP (OR 14.97, 95% C.I. = 9.09-24.67) or tropical CP (OR 19.15, 95% C.I. = 8.83-41.56). Studies analyzing familial CP showed very high heterogeneity suggestive of a complex etiology with an I2 = 80.95%. Conclusion: The small effect of SPINK1 N34S in alcoholic subjects suggests that CP is driven through a different pathway that is largely trypsin-independent. The results also suggest that large effect sizes of SPINK1 N34S in small candidate gene studies in CP may be related to a mixture of multiple etiologic pathways leading to the same clinical endpoint. © 2008 Aoun MD et al

SpHincterotomy for Acute Recurrent Pancreatitis Randomized Trial: Rationale, Methodology, and Potential Implications

Objectives: In patients with acute recurrent pancreatitis (ARP), pancreas divisum, and no other etiologic factors, endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) with minor papilla endoscopic sphincterotomy (miES) is often performed to enlarge the minor papillary orifice, based on limited data. The aims of this study are to describe the rationale and methodology of a sham-controlled clinical trial designed to test the hypothesis that miES reduces the risk of acute pancreatitis. Methods: The SpHincterotomy for Acute Recurrent Pancreatitis (SHARP) trial is a multicenter, international, sham-controlled, randomized trial comparing endoscopic ultrasound + ERCP with miES vs. endoscopic ultrasound + sham for the management of ARP. A total of 234 consented patients having two or more discrete episodes of acute pancreatitis, pancreas divisum confirmed by magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography, and no other clear etiology for acute pancreatitis will be randomized. Both cohorts will be followed for a minimum of 6 months and maximum of 48 months. Results: The trial is powered to detect a 33% risk reduction of acute pancreatitis frequency. Conclusions: The SHARP trial will determine whether ERCP with miES benefits patients with idiopathic ARP and pancreas divisum. Trial planning has informed the importance of blinded outcome assessors and long-term follow-up

Introduction and Validation of a Novel Acute Pancreatitis Digital Tool: Interrogating Large Pooled Data From 2 Prospectively Ascertained Cohorts

Objectives: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a sudden onset, rapidly evolving inflammatory response with systemic inflammation and multiorgan failure (MOF) in a subset of patients. New highly accurate clinical decision support tools are needed to allow local doctors to provide expert care. Methods: Ariel Dynamic Acute Pancreatitis Tracker (ADAPT) is a digital tool to guide physicians in ordering standard tests, evaluate test results and model progression using available data, propose emergent therapies. The accuracy of the severity score calculators was tested using 2 prospectively ascertained Acute Pancreatitis Patient Registry to Examine Novel Therapies in Clinical Experience cohorts (pilot University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, n = 163; international, n = 1544). Results: The ADAPT and post hoc expert-calculated AP severity scores were 100% concordant in both pilot and international cohorts. High-risk criteria of all 4 severity scores at admission were associated with moderately-severe or severe AP and MOF (both P < 0.0001) and prediction of no MOF was 97.8% to 98.9%. The positive predictive value for MOF was 7.5% to 14.9%. Conclusions: The ADAPT tool showed 100% accuracy with AP predictive metrics. Prospective evaluation of ADAPT features is needed to determine if additional data can accurately predict and mitigate severe AP and MOF