Phishing Detection using Base Classifier and Ensemble Technique

Phishing attacks continue to pose a significant threat in today's digital landscape, with both individuals and organizations falling victim to these attacks on a regular basis. One of the primary methods used to carry out phishing attacks is through the use of phishing websites, which are designed to look like legitimate sites in order to trick users into giving away their personal information, including sensitive data such as credit card details and passwords. This research paper proposes a model that utilizes several benchmark classifiers, including LR, Bagging, RF, K-NN, DT, SVM, and Adaboost, to accurately identify and classify phishing websites based on accuracy, precision, recall, f1-score, and confusion matrix. Additionally, a meta-learner and stacking model were combined to identify phishing websites in existing systems. The proposed ensemble learning approach using stack-based meta-learners proved to be highly effective in identifying both legitimate and phishing websites, achieving an accuracy rate of up to 97.19%, with precision, recall, and f1 scores of 97%, 98%, and 98%, respectively. Thus, it is recommended that ensemble learning, particularly with stacking and its meta-learner variations, be implemented to detect and prevent phishing attacks and other digital cyber threats

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions

Declaring schools tobacco free: protecting young generation to save Nation (multipronged coordinated interventions to declare 3517 schools tobacco free in Jharkhand state in India)

Background and challenges to implementation Tobacco Industry (TI) aggressively targets young children and adolescents as new recruits. The early age of initiation for TI assures tobacco usage for longer period. As per GATS 2010, of all ever daily tobacco users (age 20-34), almost 60% initiate tobacco use before age of 17.8. It calls for urgent intervension. As per GATS 2010, Jharkhand state in India has one of the highest total prevalence rate as 50.01% against national average of 34.6%. This is disturbing. Government of India enacted its tobacco control law i.e. Cigarette and Other Tobacco Product Act, 2003 (COTPA). It prohibits smoking in all public places including schools (section 4), forbids sale to and by minors (section 6-A) and bans sale of tobacco products within 100 yards of any educational institution (section 6-b). Intervention or response 3.5 million students of age 14 to 18 studying in 3517 schools in Jharkhand state were protected through multipronged coordinated interventions adopted by Director of School Education, SEEDS and The UNION, technical support partners to state Government. Massive awareness program was launched. All stake holders including DEOs, teachers, media, school management committee, parents, peer groups were made sensitive and responsible ensuring that · No sale of tobacco products around 100 Yards of schools. · No use of tobacco in schools · Display of two warning signages mandated under section 4 and section 6(b). Continuous monitoring of implementation process was the key. Strict actions were also taken. Results and lessons learnt Visionary Zeal and regular personal monitoring resulted in high compliance of section 4 and section 6(b) ensuring 3517 Schools being declared tobacco-free in two years. Conclusions and key recommendations Strategic, collaborative and multipronged coodinated intervention at school level results in reducing students´ exposure and their accessibility to tobacco products significantly. This minimizes chances of picking up this dangerous habit. It protects young generation. And, Protecting Young Generation means saving Nation

Institutionalization of Indian Tobacco Control Programme at Grassroot level - experiences from state of Jharkhand in India. (Enabling institutional structure is key to sustained results)

Background and challenges to implementation In Jharkhand, prevalence of tobacco is a serious concern as its 50.01% ( n =19.5 million) of adults are edicted to tobacco as against national average of 34.6% as per GATS 2010. Government of India launched National Tobacco Control Programme (NTCP) IN 2010-11 in two districts of Jharkhand i.e. Dhanbad & East Singhbhum as pilot basis. Enforcement of Indian tobacco control law, capacity building, awareness generation, school health programs and cessation are main components of NTCP. Currently Jharkhand State Tobacco Control Cell in technical collaboration with SEEDS and The Union is implementing a project on tobacco control in 6 districts of state. Intervention or response Several effective strategic interventions were undertaken. All primarily revolved around institutionalization of efforts, value systems, management practices and administrative structures. Institutional framework was developed through four pronged strategies i.e. intense advocacy , capacity building & follow up with government officials, effective monitoring at state and district level and consistent media mobilization without losing out to capture even a smaller event related to tobacco control issues. Collaborative and systematic efforts were made. Meetings / workshops / trainings and brainstorming sessions were conducted in collaboration with the District Administration. Results and lessons learnt These resultes in sensitisation of program managers, law enforcers and media resulting in noticablely high commitment to the cause. Innovatively, formation of anti-tobacco squads, inter-departmental State and Districts Tobacco Control Coordination Committees´ meetings, enforcement reviews in monthly crime review meetings were conducted. This provided distinctive outcomes: - Appointment of nodal officers at- state level - Appointment of three nodal officers in each district, - Synergy between efforts of health, police and general administration, - Review by Deputy Commissioners in their monthly meetings of all departments Conclusions and key recommendations It is established that successful enforcement and implementation is achieved only through well-established institutionalization of tobacco control within existing system. Enabling Institutional Structure is indeed Key to Sustained Results

A Comprehensive Review on Biochar

Biochar from the pyrolysis of organic biomass is a highly porous carbon with many useful applications. While providing practical options for disposal and disease control, it also contributes to carbon sequestration by trapping carbon in plant biomass. The composition and structure of biochar depends on factors such as temperature, heating rate and production time. It also leads to bio-oil and biogas, which can be used for biochar production, electricity generation and the production of various chemicals. Incorporating biochar into the soil improves pH, electrical conductivity, water holding capacity, cation exchange capacity and microbial activity.It reduces nutrient leakage and all necessary fertilizers reduce environmental pollution. Biochar also plays an important role in crop improvement. Besides improving the soil, biochar also has the advantage of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, reducing pesticide use and being used in the construction, cosmetics and treatment, wastewater and food industries. India is rich in biomass resources and has great potential for biochar production. This study explores various production technologies, their effects on biochar energy and the benefits of using biochar

Allosteric modulation of GPCR-induced β-arrestin trafficking and signaling by a synthetic intrabody

Agonist-induced phosphorylation of G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) is a primary determinant of β-arrestin (βarr) recruitment and trafficking. For several GPCRs such as the vasopressin receptor subtype 2 (V2R), agonist-stimulation first drives the translocation of βarrs to the plasma membrane, followed by endosomal trafficking, which is generally considered to be orchestrated by multiple phosphorylation sites. We have previously shown that mutation of a single phosphorylation site in the V2R (i.e., V2RT360A) results in near-complete loss of βarr translocation to endosomes despite robust recruitment to the plasma membrane, and compromised ERK1/2 activation. Here, we discover that a synthetic intrabody (Ib30), which selectively recognizes activated βarr1, efficiently rescues the endosomal trafficking of βarr1 and ERK1/2 activation for V2RT360A. Molecular dynamics simulations reveal that Ib30 enriches active-like βarr1 conformation with respect to the inter-domain rotation, and cellular assays demonstrate that it also enhances βarr1-β2-adaptin interaction. Our data provide an experimental framework to positively modulate the receptor-transducer-effector axis for GPCRs using intrabodies, which can be potentially integrated in the paradigm of GPCR-targeted drug discovery