Oceanic stochastic parametrizations in a seasonal forecast system

We study the impact of three stochastic parametrizations in the ocean component of a coupled model, on forecast reliability over seasonal timescales. The relative impacts of these schemes upon the ocean mean state and ensemble spread are analyzed. The oceanic variability induced by the atmospheric forcing of the coupled system is, in most regions, the major source of ensemble spread. The largest impact on spread and bias came from the Stochastically Perturbed Parametrization Tendency (SPPT) scheme - which has proven particularly effective in the atmosphere. The key regions affected are eddy-active regions, namely the western boundary currents and the Southern Ocean. However, unlike its impact in the atmosphere, SPPT in the ocean did not result in a significant decrease in forecast error. Whilst there are good grounds for implementing stochastic schemes in ocean models, our results suggest that they will have to be more sophisticated. Some suggestions for next-generation stochastic schemes are made.Comment: 24 pages, 3 figure

Oceanic stochastic parametrizations in a seasonal forecast system

We study the impact of three stochastic parametrizations in the ocean component of a coupled model, on forecast reliability over seasonal timescales. The relative impacts of these schemes upon the ocean mean state and ensemble spread are analyzed. The oceanic variability induced by the atmospheric forcing of the coupled system is, in most regions, the major source of ensemble spread. The largest impact on spread and bias came from the Stochastically Perturbed Parametrization Tendency (SPPT) scheme - which has proven particularly effective in the atmosphere. The key regions affected are eddy-active regions, namely the western boundary currents and the Southern Ocean. However, unlike its impact in the atmosphere, SPPT in the ocean did not result in a significant decrease in forecast error. Whilst there are good grounds for implementing stochastic schemes in ocean models, our results suggest that they will have to be more sophisticated. Some suggestions for next-generation stochastic schemes are made.Comment: 24 pages, 3 figure

ENSEMBLES: a new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions: Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs

A new 46-year hindcast dataset for seasonal-to-annual ensemble predictions has been created using a multi-model ensemble of 5 state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean circulation models. The multi-model outperforms any of the single-models in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs because of reduced RMS errors and enhanced ensemble dispersion at all lead-times. Systematic errors are considerably reduced over the previous generation (DEMETER). Probabilistic skill scores show higher skill for the new multi-model ensemble than for DEMETER in the 4–6 month forecast range. However, substantially improved models would be required to achieve strongly statistical significant skill increases. The combination of ENSEMBLES and DEMETER into a grand multi-model ensemble does not improve the forecast skill further. Annual-range hindcasts show anomaly correlation skill of ∼0.5 up to 14 months ahead. A wide range of output from the multi-model simulations is becoming publicly available and the international community is invited to explore the full scientific potential of these data

GRB 070714B - Discovery of the Highest Spectroscopically Confirmed Short Burst Redshift

Gemini Nod & Shuffle spectroscopy on the host of the short GRB 070714B shows a single emission line at 7167 angstroms which, based on a grizJHK photometric redshift, we conclude is the 3727 angstrom [O II] line. This places the host at a redshift of z=.923 exceeding the previous record for the highest spectroscopically confirmed short burst redshift of z=.546 held by GRB 051221. This dramatically moves back the time at which we know short bursts were being formed, and suggests that the present evidence for an old progenitor population may be observationally biased.Comment: Conference procedings for Gamma Ray Bursts 2007 November 5-9, 2007 Santa Fe, New Mexico (4 pages, 2 figures

Swift follow-up of IceCube triggers, and implications for the Advanced-LIGO era

Between 2011 March and 2014 August Swift responded to 20 triggers from the IceCube neutrino observatory, observing the IceCube 50% confidence error circle in X-rays, typically within 5 hours of the trigger. No confirmed counterpart has been detected. We describe the Swift follow up strategy and data analysis and present the results of the campaign. We discuss the challenges of distinguishing the X-ray counterpart to a neutrino trigger from serendipitous uncatalogued X-ray sources in the error circle, and consider the implications of our results for future strategies for multi-messenger astronomy, with particular reference to the follow up of gravitational wave triggers from the advanced-era detectors.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS. 18 pages, including 8 figures and 4 tables; two of which are landscape-oriente

Tailored second line therapy in asthmatic children with the arginine-16 genotype

The arginine-16 beta-2 receptor genotype confers increased susceptibility to exacerbations in asthmatic children taking regular long acting beta-2 agonists. We therefore evaluated using montelukast as an alternative to salmeterol as tailored second line asthma controller therapy in children expressing this susceptible genotype. 62 persistent asthmatic children with the homozygous arginine-16 genotype were randomized to receive salmeterol 50ug bid or montelukast 5/10mg od as add on to inhaled fluticasone for 1 year. School absences (the primary outcome) were reduced with montelukast arm compared to salmeterol: difference in score = 0.40 (95%CI 0.07-0.87) p=0.005. Albuterol use was also reduced with montelukast compared with salmeterol: difference in score = 0.47 (95%CI 0.16-0.79) p<0.0001. Greater improvements occurred in both symptom and quality of life scores with montelukast vs salmeterol, while there was no difference in FEV1. Montelukast may be suitable as tailored second line controller therapy instead of salmeterol in asthmatic children expressing the susceptible arginine-16 genotype - moving towards a personalised medicine approach to management

Particles in non-Abelian gauge potentials - Landau problem and insertion of non-Abelian flux

We study charged spin-1/2 particles in two dimensions, subject to a perpendicular non-Abelian magnetic field. Specializing to a choice of vector potential that is spatially constant but non-Abelian, we investigate the Landau level spectrum in planar and spherical geometry, paying particular attention to the role of the total angular momentum J = L +S. After this we show that the adiabatic insertion of non-Abelian flux in a spin-polarized quantum Hall state leads to the formation of charged spin-textures, which in the simplest cases can be identified with quantum Hall Skyrmions.Comment: 24 pages, 10 figures (with corrected legends

Use of ERTS-1 data to access and monitor change in the west side of the San Joaquin Valley and central coastal zone of California

There are no author-identified significant results in this report

Lower Critical Dimension of Ising Spin Glasses

Exact ground states of two-dimensional Ising spin glasses with Gaussian and bimodal (+- J) distributions of the disorder are calculated using a ``matching'' algorithm, which allows large system sizes of up to N=480^2 spins to be investigated. We study domain walls induced by two rather different types of boundary-condition changes, and, in each case, analyze the system-size dependence of an appropriately defined ``defect energy'', which we denote by DE. For Gaussian disorder, we find a power-law behavior DE ~ L^\theta, with \theta=-0.266(2) and \theta=-0.282(2) for the two types of boundary condition changes. These results are in reasonable agreement with each other, allowing for small systematic effects. They also agree well with earlier work on smaller sizes. The negative value indicates that two dimensions is below the lower critical dimension d_c. For the +-J model, we obtain a different result, namely the domain-wall energy saturates at a nonzero value for L\to \infty, so \theta = 0, indicating that the lower critical dimension for the +-J model exactly d_c=2.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures, 1 table, revte