Weather, climate and the nature of predictability

The prediction and simulation of future weather and climate is a key ingredient in good weather risk management. This chapter briefly reviews the nature and underlying sources of predictability on timescales from hours-ahead to centuries-ahead. The traditional distinction between ‘weather’ and ‘climate’ predictions is described, and the role of recent scientific developments in driving a convergence of these two classic problems is highlighted. The chapter concludes by outlining and comparing the two main strategies used for creating weather and climate predictions, and discussing the challenges of using predictions in quantitative applications

Fine mapping of genes determining extrafusal fiber properties in murine soleus muscle

Peer reviewedPostprin

Analysis of independent cohorts of outbred CFW mice reveals novel loci for behavioral and physiological traits and identifies factors determining reproducibility

Combining samples for genetic association is standard practice in human genetic analysis of complex traits, but is rarely undertaken in rodent genetics. Here, using 23 phenotypes and genotypes from two independent laboratories, we obtained a sample size of 3,076 commercially available outbred mice and identified 70 loci, more than double the number of loci identified in the component studies. Fine-mapping in the combined sample reduced the number of likely causal variants, with a median reduction in set size of 51%, and indicated novel gene associations, including Pnpo, Ttll6 and GM11545 with bone mineral density, and Psmb9 with weight. However replication at a nominal threshold of 0.05 between the two component studies was low, with less than a third of loci identified in one study replicated in the second. In addition to overestimates in the effect size in the discovery sample (Winner's Curse), we also found that heterogeneity between studies explained the poor replication, but the contribution of these two factors varied among traits. Leveraging these observations we integrated information about replication rates, study-specific heterogeneity, and Winner's Curse corrected estimates of power to assign variants to one of four confidence levels. Our approach addresses concerns about reproducibility, and demonstrates how to obtain robust results from mapping complex traits in any genome-wide association study

Why do Particle Clouds Generate Electric Charges?

Grains in desert sandstorms spontaneously generate strong electrical charges; likewise volcanic dust plumes produce spectacular lightning displays. Charged particle clouds also cause devastating explosions in food, drug and coal processing industries. Despite the wide-ranging importance of granular charging in both nature and industry, even the simplest aspects of its causes remain elusive, because it is difficult to understand how inert grains in contact with little more than other inert grains can generate the large charges observed. Here, we present a simple yet predictive explanation for the charging of granular materials in collisional flows. We argue from very basic considerations that charge transfer can be expected in collisions of identical dielectric grains in the presence of an electric field, and we confirm the model's predictions using discrete-element simulations and a tabletop granular experiment

Paediatric radiology seen from Africa. Part I: providing diagnostic imaging to a young population

Article approval pendingPaediatric radiology requires dedicated equipment, specific precautions related to ionising radiation, and specialist knowledge. Developing countries face difficulties in providing adequate imaging services for children. In many African countries, children represent an increasing proportion of the population, and additional challenges follow from extreme living conditions, poverty, lack of parental care, and exposure to tuberculosis, HIV, pneumonia, diarrhoea and violent trauma. Imaging plays a critical role in the treatment of these children, but is expensive and difficult to provide. The World Health Organisation initiatives, of which the World Health Imaging System for Radiography (WHIS-RAD) unit is one result, needs to expand into other areas such as the provision of maintenance servicing. New initiatives by groups such as Rotary and the World Health Imaging Alliance to install WHIS-RAD units in developing countries and provide digital solutions, need support. Paediatric radiologists are needed to offer their services for reporting, consultation and quality assurance for free by way of teleradiology. Societies for paediatric radiology are needed to focus on providing a volunteer teleradiology reporting group, information on child safety for basic imaging, guidelines for investigations specific to the disease spectrum, and solutions for optimising imaging in children

Neurodegeneration and Epilepsy in a Zebrafish Model of CLN3 Disease (Batten Disease)

The neuronal ceroid lipofuscinoses are a group of lysosomal storage disorders that comprise the most common, genetically heterogeneous, fatal neurodegenerative disorders of children. They are characterised by childhood onset, visual failure, epileptic seizures, psychomotor retardation and dementia. CLN3 disease, also known as Batten disease, is caused by autosomal recessive mutations in the CLN3 gene, 80–85% of which are a ~1 kb deletion. Currently no treatments exist, and after much suffering, the disease inevitably results in premature death. The aim of this study was to generate a zebrafish model of CLN3 disease using antisense morpholino injection, and characterise the pathological and functional consequences of Cln3 deficiency, thereby providing a tool for future drug discovery. The model was shown to faithfully recapitulate the pathological signs of CLN3 disease, including reduced survival, neuronal loss, retinopathy, axonopathy, loss of motor function, lysosomal storage of subunit c of mitochondrial ATP synthase, and epileptic seizures, albeit with an earlier onset and faster progression than the human disease. Our study provides proof of principle that the advantages of the zebrafish over other model systems can be utilised to further our understanding of the pathogenesis of CLN3 disease and accelerate drug discovery

Application of pharmacogenomics and bioinformatics to exemplify the utility of human <i>ex vivo</i> organoculture models in the field of precision medicine

Here we describe a collaboration between industry, the National Health Service (NHS) and academia that sought to demonstrate how early understanding of both pharmacology and genomics can improve strategies for the development of precision medicines. Diseased tissue ethically acquired from patients suffering from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), was used to investigate inter-patient variability in drug efficacy using ex vivo organocultures of fresh lung tissue as the test system. The reduction in inflammatory cytokines in the presence of various test drugs was used as the measure of drug efficacy and the individual patient responses were then matched against genotype and microRNA profiles in an attempt to identify unique predictors of drug responsiveness. Our findings suggest that genetic variation in CYP2E1 and SMAD3 genes may partly explain the observed variation in drug response

The cost of promiscuity: sexual transmission of Nosema microsporidian parasites in polyandrous honey bees

Multiple mating (and insemination) by females with different males, polyandry, is widespread across animals, due to material and/or genetic benefits for females. It reaches particularly high levels in some social insects, in which queens can produce significantly fitter colonies by being polyandrous. It is therefore a paradox that two thirds of eusocial hymenopteran insects appear to be exclusively monandrous, in spite of the fitness benefits that polyandry could provide. One possible cost of polyandry could be sexually transmitted parasites, but evidence for these in social insects is extremely limited. Here we show that two different species of Nosema microsporidian parasites can transmit sexually in the honey bee Apis mellifera. Honey bee males that are infected by the parasite have Nosema spores in their semen, and queens artificially inseminated with either Nosema spores or the semen of Nosema-infected males became infected by the parasite. The emergent and more virulent N. ceranae achieved much higher rates of infection following insemination than did N. apis. The results provide the first quantitative evidence of a sexually transmitted disease (STD) in social insects, indicating that STDs may represent a potential cost of polyandry in social insects

Identification and In Vivo Characterization of NvFP-7R, a Developmentally Regulated Red Fluorescent Protein of Nematostella vectensis

In recent years, the sea anemone Nematostella vectensis has emerged as a critical model organism for comparative genomics and developmental biology. Although Nematostella is a member of the anthozoan cnidarians (known for producing an abundance of diverse fluorescent proteins (FPs)), endogenous patterns of Nematostella fluorescence have not been described and putative FPs encoded by the genome have not been characterized.We described the spatiotemporal expression of endogenous red fluorescence during Nematostella development. Spatially, there are two patterns of red fluorescence, both restricted to the oral endoderm in developing polyps. One pattern is found in long fluorescent domains associated with the eight mesenteries and the other is found in short fluorescent domains situated between tentacles. Temporally, the long domains appear simultaneously at the 12-tentacle stage. In contrast, the short domains arise progressively between the 12- and 16-tentacle stage. To determine the source of the red fluorescence, we used bioinformatic approaches to identify all possible putative Nematostella FPs and a Drosophila S2 cell culture assay to validate NvFP-7R, a novel red fluorescent protein. We report that both the mRNA expression pattern and spectral signature of purified NvFP-7R closely match that of the endogenous red fluorescence. Strikingly, the red fluorescent pattern of NvFP-7R exhibits asymmetric expression along the directive axis, indicating that the nvfp-7r locus senses the positional information of the body plan. At the tissue level, NvFP-7R exhibits an unexpected subcellular localization and a complex complementary expression pattern in apposed epithelia sheets comprising each endodermal mesentery.These experiments not only identify NvFP-7R as a novel red fluorescent protein that could be employed as a research tool; they also uncover an unexpected spatio-temporal complexity of gene expression in an adult cnidarian. Perhaps most importantly, our results define Nematostella as a new model organism for understanding the biological function of fluorescent proteins in vivo

Clinical-pathological study on β-APP, IL-1β, GFAP, NFL, Spectrin II, 8OHdG, TUNEL, miR-21, miR-16, miR-92 expressions to verify DAI-diagnosis, grade and prognosis

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is one of the most important death and disability cause, involving substantial costs, also in economic terms, when considering the young age of the involved subject. Aim of this paper is to report a series of patients treated at our institutions, to verify neurological results at six months or survival; in fatal cases we searched for βAPP, GFAP, IL-1β, NFL, Spectrin II, TUNEL and miR-21, miR-16, and miR-92 expressions in brain samples, to verify DAI diagnosis and grade as strong predictor of survival and inflammatory response. Concentrations of 8OHdG as measurement of oxidative stress was performed. Immunoreaction of β-APP, IL-1β, GFAP, NFL, Spectrin II and 8OHdG were significantly increased in the TBI group with respect to control group subjects. Cell apoptosis, measured by TUNEL assay, were significantly higher in the study group than control cases. Results indicated that miR-21, miR-92 and miR-16 have a high predictive power in discriminating trauma brain cases from controls and could represent promising biomarkers as strong predictor of survival, and for the diagnosis of postmortem traumatic brain injury