Avaliação das Previsões de Precipitação do Modelo Eta para Bacia do Rio São Francisco em Minas Gerais, Brasil

In this work, the CPTEC/INPE's Eta model (8 km and 40 km) forecasts, with 72 hours in advance, are evaluate for 25 intense rainfall cases, occurred in the period 2005-2012, at São Francisco River Basin, upstream Três Marias Hydroelectric Power Plant, in Minas Gerais. The objective is to contribute to the improvement of intense rainfall forecasts in the studied area. Evaluation of rainfall forecasts is made objectively and subjectively, comparing them with observational data. Moreover, synoptic fields forecasts for several variables are compared with the same fields of ERA-Interim Reanalysis (ECMWF). The Eta model forecasts for 25 intense rainfall cases were generated initially nesting Eta-40km model to the CPTEC/INPE's Global model (T126L28). Finally, the Eta-8km model is integrated using as initial conditions the NCEP analysis and as lateral boundary conditions the Eta-40km model forecasts, updated every 6 hours. Considering the 25 intense rainfall cases, evaluating objetively the rain, Eta-8km has better (worst) performance compared to Eta-40km, to predict daily moderate to strong (weak) precipitation. Based on the subjective evaluation, it is noted that when CPTEC/INPE's Global model fails in positioning the active meteorological system, both versions of Eta model are affected. In cases where meteorological systems are more pronounced, as in the 25 case, it increases the accuracy of both Eta model versions, with Eta-8km showing better results than Eta-40km.Neste trabalho, as previsões do modelo Eta do CPTEC/INPE, em duas resoluções espaciais (8 km e 40 km), com 72 h de antecedência, são avaliadas em 25 casos de chuvas intensas ocorridos no período de 2005 a 2012 na Bacia do Rio São Francisco, à montante da Usina Hidrelétrica de Três Marias, em Minas Gerais. O objetivo do trabalho é contribuir para a melhoria das previsões de chuva na área em estudo. A avaliação das previsões de precipitação é feita objetivamente e subjetivamente, confrontando-as com dados observacionais coletados em 35 postos pluviométricos na área em estudo. Além disso, os campos sinóticos previstos para algumas variáveis são comparados com os mesmos campos da Reanálise ERA-Interim do ECMWF. As previsões do modelo Eta para os 25 casos de chuvas intensas selecionados são geradas inicialmente aninhando-se o modelo Eta-40km ao modelo Global do CPTEC/INPE (T126L28). Finalmente o modelo Eta-8km é integrado recebendo como condições iniciais as análises do NCEP e como condições de contorno lateral as previsões do modelo Eta-40km, atualizadas a cada 6 horas. Considerando-se os 25 eventos de chuvas intensas, avaliando-se a chuva objetivamente, o Eta-8km apresenta melhor performance comparado ao Eta-40km, para prever a chuva diária moderada a forte e pior performance para prever chuva fraca. Baseado na avaliação subjetiva, nota-se que quando o modelo Global do CPTEC/INPE erra o posicionamento do sistema meteorológico atuante, ambas as versões do modelo Eta são afetadas. Nos casos em que os sistemas meteorológicos são mais pronunciados, como no caso 25, aumenta o grau de acerto das versões do modelo, com o Eta-8km apresentando melhores resultados do que o Eta-40km

Investigação da Previsibilidade Sazonal da Precipitação na Região do Alto São Francisco em Minas Gerais

Seasonal rainfall forecasts generated with regional Eta model for the rainy season of the São Francisco River Basin, upstream Hydroeletric Power Plant (HPP) Três Marias in Minas Gerais are evaluated in this work. The use of such forecasts as an input in energy planning models, represent a better management in the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity. However, it is well known that most of the globe, seasonal climate predictability is much reduced, since the effects of boundary conditions to determine the evolution of the average state of the atmosphere compete with internal variability associated with the chaotic instabilities and nonlinear interactions of the atmospheric flow. The forecasts of the Eta-Seasonal-15km model are initiated on days 13 to 17 October, extending until February 28, during the years 2001-2010. The evaluation results indicate that the noise (inter members variability) is higher than the signal (interannual variability), suggesting low reliability of the forecasts for the region during the rainy season. Forecasts of precipitation are underestimated and the Root Mean Square Error of 77.03 mm / month is high, almost twice its standard deviation. Note A high spatial variability of rainfall due to very steep topography, which further reduces the performance of numerical models. A hit rating category of precipitation (IACP), based on the distribution of tertiles, was applied to account for the number of times that the forecasts point to the same category of observed rainfall: rainfall below, within or above the normal range. The IACP for the whole area and during the ten years was low (mean 29%), however in the southern Basin IACP is a bit higher, around 50% to 70% in the Southeast region. The annual review of the forecasts for the entire area indicated that the best model performance occurred in 2005, when conditions ATMS negative in Pacific, near the coast of Peru were persisted in October 2005 and in fact such anomalies occurred through the month of February 2006.Previsões sazonais de precipitação geradas com modelo regional Eta para a estação chuvosa da Bacia do Rio São Francisco, a montante da Usina Hidrelétrica (UHE) de Três Marias em Minas Gerais são avaliadas neste trabalho. A utilização de tais previsões como insumo nos modelos de planejamento energético, representaria um melhor gerenciamento na geração, transmissão e distribuição da energia elétrica. Contudo, é conhecido o fato de que na maior parte do globo, a previsibilidade climática sazonal é muito reduzida, uma vez que os efeitos das condições de contorno em determinar a evolução do estado médio da atmosfera competem com a variabilidade caótica interna associada às instabilidades e interações não lineares do escoamento atmosférico. As previsões do modelo Eta-Sazonal-15km são iniciadas nos dias 13 a 17 de outubro, estendendo-se até 28 de fevereiro, durante os anos de 2001 a 2010. Os resultados da avaliação indicam que o ruído (variabilidade intermembros) é superior ao sinal (variabilidade interanual), sugerindo baixa confiabilidade das previsões para a região no período chuvoso. As previsões de precipitação são subestimadas e a Raiz Quadrada do Erro Quadrático Médio, de 77,03 mm/mês é elevada , quase o dobro de seu desvio padrão. Nota-se elevada variabilidade espacial da precipitação devido a topografia bastante acentuada, o que reduz ainda mais o desempenho dos modelos numéricos. Um índice de acerto da categoria da precipitação (IACP), baseado na distribuição de tercis, foi aplicado para contabilizar o número de vezes em que as previsões apontam para a mesma categoria das chuvas observadas: chuvas abaixo, acima ou dentro da normalidade. O IACP para toda a área e durante os dez anos foi baixo (média de 29%), contudo no sul da Bacia o IACP é um pouco mais elevado, em torno de 50%, chegando a 70% no sudeste da região. A avaliação anual das previsões para toda a área indicou que a melhor performance do modelo ocorreu no ano de 2005, quando condições de ATMS negativas no Pacífico, próximo a costa do Peru foram persistidas no mês de outubro de 2005 e de fato tais anomalias se verificaram até o mês de fevereiro de 2006

Omecamtiv mecarbil in chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, GALACTIC‐HF: baseline characteristics and comparison with contemporary clinical trials

Aims: The safety and efficacy of the novel selective cardiac myosin activator, omecamtiv mecarbil, in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) is tested in the Global Approach to Lowering Adverse Cardiac outcomes Through Improving Contractility in Heart Failure (GALACTIC‐HF) trial. Here we describe the baseline characteristics of participants in GALACTIC‐HF and how these compare with other contemporary trials. Methods and Results: Adults with established HFrEF, New York Heart Association functional class (NYHA) ≥ II, EF ≤35%, elevated natriuretic peptides and either current hospitalization for HF or history of hospitalization/ emergency department visit for HF within a year were randomized to either placebo or omecamtiv mecarbil (pharmacokinetic‐guided dosing: 25, 37.5 or 50 mg bid). 8256 patients [male (79%), non‐white (22%), mean age 65 years] were enrolled with a mean EF 27%, ischemic etiology in 54%, NYHA II 53% and III/IV 47%, and median NT‐proBNP 1971 pg/mL. HF therapies at baseline were among the most effectively employed in contemporary HF trials. GALACTIC‐HF randomized patients representative of recent HF registries and trials with substantial numbers of patients also having characteristics understudied in previous trials including more from North America (n = 1386), enrolled as inpatients (n = 2084), systolic blood pressure < 100 mmHg (n = 1127), estimated glomerular filtration rate < 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 (n = 528), and treated with sacubitril‐valsartan at baseline (n = 1594). Conclusions: GALACTIC‐HF enrolled a well‐treated, high‐risk population from both inpatient and outpatient settings, which will provide a definitive evaluation of the efficacy and safety of this novel therapy, as well as informing its potential future implementation

Estimativa preliminar do potencial eólico sobre o Estado de Santa Catarina

Este trabalho apresenta alguns resultados do projeto Sistema de Organização Nacional de Dados Ambientais (SONDA), identificando o potencial de energia elétrica obtida a partir de turbinas eólicas utilizando dados observacionais e numéricos. A partir de medidas de vento distribuídas sobre o Estado de Santa Catarina durante o período de 4 anos, estimou-se o potencial eólico da região. Os resultados mostram que em algumas regiões, notadamente o sudeste do estado, há uma capacidade de produção anual de quase 3700 GWh. Durante o período de 1999 a 2002, foram identificados variações interanuais que devem ser estudados com mais detalhes. Nota-se que os anos de 2000 e 2001 ocorreram os mínimos de densidade média de potência do período. Compararam-se as potências obtidas dos ventos observados com as potências obtidas de ventos previstos pelos modelos observou-se que as potências derivadas do dos modelos apresentavam valores maiores do que os obtidos observacionalmente. ABSTRACT: Four-year wind observation measurements over the State of Santa Catarina were used to estimate the wind power of the region. The results show that some regions, mainly the southeast part of the state, there is annual power availability of almost 3700 GWh. Interannual variability was identified in the period from 1999 to 2002. The minimum of mean power density occurred in the years 2000 and 2001. The power estimated from observed wind was compared to the power estimated from the winds predicted by the models. The estimated power from the model showed higher values than the power estimated from the observations

Vorapaxar in the secondary prevention of atherothrombotic events

Item does not contain fulltextBACKGROUND: Thrombin potently activates platelets through the protease-activated receptor PAR-1. Vorapaxar is a novel antiplatelet agent that selectively inhibits the cellular actions of thrombin through antagonism of PAR-1. METHODS: We randomly assigned 26,449 patients who had a history of myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, or peripheral arterial disease to receive vorapaxar (2.5 mg daily) or matching placebo and followed them for a median of 30 months. The primary efficacy end point was the composite of death from cardiovascular causes, myocardial infarction, or stroke. After 2 years, the data and safety monitoring board recommended discontinuation of the study treatment in patients with a history of stroke owing to the risk of intracranial hemorrhage. RESULTS: At 3 years, the primary end point had occurred in 1028 patients (9.3%) in the vorapaxar group and in 1176 patients (10.5%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio for the vorapaxar group, 0.87; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80 to 0.94; P<0.001). Cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, or recurrent ischemia leading to revascularization occurred in 1259 patients (11.2%) in the vorapaxar group and 1417 patients (12.4%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.82 to 0.95; P=0.001). Moderate or severe bleeding occurred in 4.2% of patients who received vorapaxar and 2.5% of those who received placebo (hazard ratio, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.43 to 1.93; P<0.001). There was an increase in the rate of intracranial hemorrhage in the vorapaxar group (1.0%, vs. 0.5% in the placebo group; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Inhibition of PAR-1 with vorapaxar reduced the risk of cardiovascular death or ischemic events in patients with stable atherosclerosis who were receiving standard therapy. However, it increased the risk of moderate or severe bleeding, including intracranial hemorrhage. (Funded by Merck; TRA 2P-TIMI 50 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00526474.)

Cardiac myosin activation with omecamtiv mecarbil in systolic heart failure

BACKGROUND The selective cardiac myosin activator omecamtiv mecarbil has been shown to improve cardiac function in patients with heart failure with a reduced ejection fraction. Its effect on cardiovascular outcomes is unknown. METHODS We randomly assigned 8256 patients (inpatients and outpatients) with symptomatic chronic heart failure and an ejection fraction of 35% or less to receive omecamtiv mecarbil (using pharmacokinetic-guided doses of 25 mg, 37.5 mg, or 50 mg twice daily) or placebo, in addition to standard heart-failure therapy. The primary outcome was a composite of a first heart-failure event (hospitalization or urgent visit for heart failure) or death from cardiovascular causes. RESULTS During a median of 21.8 months, a primary-outcome event occurred in 1523 of 4120 patients (37.0%) in the omecamtiv mecarbil group and in 1607 of 4112 patients (39.1%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.92; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.86 to 0.99; P = 0.03). A total of 808 patients (19.6%) and 798 patients (19.4%), respectively, died from cardiovascular causes (hazard ratio, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.92 to 1.11). There was no significant difference between groups in the change from baseline on the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire total symptom score. At week 24, the change from baseline for the median N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide level was 10% lower in the omecamtiv mecarbil group than in the placebo group; the median cardiac troponin I level was 4 ng per liter higher. The frequency of cardiac ischemic and ventricular arrhythmia events was similar in the two groups. CONCLUSIONS Among patients with heart failure and a reduced ejection, those who received omecamtiv mecarbil had a lower incidence of a composite of a heart-failure event or death from cardiovascular causes than those who received placebo. (Funded by Amgen and others; GALACTIC-HF ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02929329; EudraCT number, 2016 -002299-28.)