Some Methods for Assessing the Need for Non-linear Models in Business Cycle Analysis and Forecasting

There is a long tradition in business cycle analysis of arguing that non-linear models are needed to explain the business cycle. In recent years many non-linear models have been fitted to data on GDP for many countries, but particularly for the U.S. In this paper we set our criteria to evaluate the success of non-linear models in explaining the cycle and then evaluate three recent models in the light of these criteria. We find that the models are capable of explaining the "shape" of expansions, something linear models cannot do, but do so at the cost of making expansions longer than they should be and in producing transition probabilities to recessions that are too low.business cyles, non-linear models

Simple Model of Membrane Proteins Including Solvent

We report a numerical simulation for the phase diagram of a simple two dimensional model, similar to one proposed by Noro and Frenkel [J. Chem. Phys. \textbf{114}, 2477 (2001)] for membrane proteins, but one that includes the role of the solvent. We first use Gibbs ensemble Monte Caro simulations to determine the phase behavior of particles interacting via a square-well potential in two dimensions for various values of the interaction range. A phenomenological model for the solute-solvent interactions is then studied to understand how the fluid-fluid coexistence curve is modified by solute-solvent interactions. It is shown that such a model can yield systems with liquid-liquid phase separation curves that have both upper and lower critical points, as well as closed loop phase diagrams, as is the case with the corresponding three dimensional model.Comment: 16 pages, 9 figures. Two figures added, resubmitted for publicatio

Automated Grain Yield Behavior Classification

A method for classifying grain stress evolution behaviors using unsupervised learning techniques is presented. The method is applied to analyze grain stress histories measured in-situ using high-energy X-ray diffraction microscopy (HEDM) from the aluminum-lithium alloy Al-Li 2099 at the elastic-plastic transition (yield). The unsupervised learning process automatically classified the grain stress histories into four groups: major softening, no work-hardening or softening, moderate work-hardening, and major work-hardening. The orientation and spatial dependence of these four groups are discussed. In addition, the generality of the classification process to other samples is explored

Privatization and European Economic and Monetary Union

To qualify for full membership in the Economic and Monetary Union, member states had to meet strict budget deficit and government debt convergence criteria. This study analyzes whether deficits and indebtedness in the 1990s in Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece were associated with a shift from privatization as a tool of economic restructuring, to privatization as a tool of European monetary convergence. The empirical results suggests that privatization funds accruing from the sale of state-owned enterprises in the Southern European countries might have been used to tackle budget deficits and meet the stringent criteria for monetary integration.Monetary Union; Privatization

Capital allocation for credit portfolios with kernel estimators

Determining contributions by sub-portfolios or single exposures to portfolio-wide economic capital for credit risk is an important risk measurement task. Often economic capital is measured as Value-at-Risk (VaR) of the portfolio loss distribution. For many of the credit portfolio risk models used in practice, the VaR contributions then have to be estimated from Monte Carlo samples. In the context of a partly continuous loss distribution (i.e. continuous except for a positive point mass on zero), we investigate how to combine kernel estimation methods with importance sampling to achieve more efficient (i.e. less volatile) estimation of VaR contributions.Comment: 22 pages, 12 tables, 1 figure, some amendment

Focusing of timelike worldsheets in a theory of strings

An analysis of the generalised Raychaudhuri equations for string world sheets is shown to lead to the notion of focusing of timelike worldsheets in the classical Nambu-Goto theory of strings. The conditions under which such effects can occur are obtained . Explicit solutions as well as the Cauchy initial value problem are discussed. The results closely resemble their counterparts in the theory of point particles which were obtained in the context of the analysis of spacetime singularities in General Relativity many years ago.Comment: 14 pages, RevTex, no figures, extended, to appear in Phys Rev

Beta-blockers to prevent gastroesophageal varices in patients with cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: Nonselective beta-adrenergic blockers decrease portal pressure and prevent variceal hemorrhage. Their effectiveness in preventing varices is unknown. METHODS: We randomly assigned 213 patients with cirrhosis and portal hypertension (minimal hepatic venous pressure gradient [HVPG] of 6 mm Hg) to receive timolol, a nonselective beta-blocker (108 patients), or placebo (105 patients). The primary end point was the development of gastroesophageal varices or variceal hemorrhage. Endoscopy and HVPG measurements were repeated yearly. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 54.9 months, the rate of the primary end point did not differ significantly between the timolol group and the placebo group (39 percent and 40 percent, respectively; P=0.89), nor were there significant differences in the rates of ascites, encephalopathy, liver transplantation, or death. Serious adverse events were more common among patients in the timolol group than among those in the placebo group (18 percent vs. 6 percent, P=0.006). Varices developed less frequently among patients with a baseline HVPG of less than 10 mm Hg and among those in whom the HVPG decreased by more than 10 percent at one year and more frequently among those in whom the HVPG increased by more than 10 percent at one year. CONCLUSIONS: Nonselective beta-blockers are ineffective in preventing varices in unselected patients with cirrhosis and portal hypertension and are associated with an increased number of adverse events. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00006398.

Water loss in horticultural products. Modelling, data analysis and theoretical considerations

The water loss of individual fruit (melon, plum and mandarin) was analysed using the traditional diffusion based approach and a kinetic approach. Applying simple non linear regression, both approaches are the same, resulting in a quite acceptable analysis. However, by applying mixed effects non linear regression analysis, explicitly including the variation over the individuals, the kinetic approach was found to reflect the processes occurring during mass loss better than the diffusion approach. All the variation between the individuals in a batch could be attributed to the initial mass or size of the individuals. The fraction of the fruit mass that is available for transpiration is the key item in the water loss process, rather than the skin resistance and fruit area. Obtained explained parts are well over 99%

A forage-only diet alters the metabolic response of horses in training

Most athletic horses are fed a high-starch diet despite the risk of health problems. Replacing starch concentrate with high-energy forage would alleviate these health problems, but could result in a shift in major substrates for muscle energy supply from glucose to short-chain fatty acids (SCFA) due to more hindgut fermentation of fibre. Dietary fat inclusion has previously been shown to promote aerobic energy supply during exercise, but the contribution of SCFA to exercise metabolism has received little attention. This study compared metabolic response with exercise and lactate threshold (VLa4) in horses fed a forage-only diet (F) and a more traditional high-starch, low-energy forage diet (forage–concentrate diet - FC). The hypothesis was that diet F would increase plasma acetate concentration and increase VLa4 compared with diet FC. Six Standardbred geldings in race training were used in a 29-day change-over experiment. Plasma acetate, non-esterified fatty acids (NEFA), lactate, glucose and insulin concentrations and venous pH were measured in samples collected before, during and after a treadmill exercise test (ET, day 25) and muscle glycogen concentrations before and after ET. Plasma acetate concentration was higher before and after exercise in horses on diet F compared with diet FC, and there was a tendency ( P50.09) for increased VLa4 on diet F. Venous pH and plasma glucose concentrations during exercise were higher in horses on diet F than diet FC, as was plasma NEFA on the day after ET. Plasma insulin and muscle glycogen concentrations were lower for diet F, but glycogen utilisation was similar for the two diets. The results show that a high-energy, forage-only diet alters the metabolic response to exercise and, with the exception of lowered glycogen stores, appears to have positive rather than negative effects on performance traits

Planck-LFI: Design and Performance of the 4 Kelvin Reference Load Unit

The LFI radiometers use a pseudo-correlation design where the signal from the sky is continuously compared with a stable reference signal, provided by a cryogenic reference load system. The reference unit is composed by small pyramidal horns, one for each radiometer, 22 in total, facing small absorbing targets, made of a commercial resin ECCOSORB CR (TM), cooled to approximately 4.5 K. Horns and targets are separated by a small gap to allow thermal decoupling. Target and horn design is optimized for each of the LFI bands, centered at 70, 44 and 30 GHz. Pyramidal horns are either machined inside the radiometer 20K module or connected via external electro-formed bended waveguides. The requirement of high stability of the reference signal imposed a careful design for the radiometric and thermal properties of the loads. Materials used for the manufacturing have been characterized for thermal, RF and mechanical properties. We describe in this paper the design and the performance of the reference system.Comment: This is an author-created, un-copyedited version of an article accepted for publication in JINST. IOP Publishing Ltd is not responsible for any errors or omissions in this version of the manuscript or any version derived from it. The definitive publisher authenticated version is available online at [10.1088/1748-0221/4/12/T12006]. 14 pages, 34 figure