Bayesian forecasting of Prepayment Rates for Individual Pools of Mortgages

This paper proposes a novel approach for modeling prepayment rates of individual pools of mortgages. The model incorporates the empirical evidence that prepayment is past dependent via Bayesian methodology. There are many factors that influence the prepayment behavior and for many of them there is no available (or impossible to gather) information. We implement this issue by creating a Bayesian mixture model and construct a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to estimate the parameters. We assess the model on a data set from the Bloomberg Database. Our results show that the burnout effect is a significant variable for explaining normal prepayment activities. This result does not hold when prepayment is triggered by non-pool dependent events. We show how to use the new model to compute prices for Mortgage Backed Securities. Monte Carlo simulation is the traditional method for obtaining such prices and the proposed model can be easily incorporated within simulation pricing framework. Prices for standard Pass-Throughs are obtained using simulation.State of Texas Advanced Research Program 003658-0763National Science Foundation CMMI-0457558, DMS-0605102Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineerin

Differential diagnostic of histological specimens as a practical tool for teaching histology inforeign medical students

МЕДИЦИНСКИЕ УЧЕБНЫЕ ЗАВЕДЕНИЯОБРАЗОВАНИЕ МЕДИЦИНСКОЕСТУДЕНТЫ МЕДИЦИНСКИХ УЧЕБНЫХ ЗАВЕДЕНИЙИНОСТРАННЫЕ СТУДЕНТЫГИСТОЛОГИЯ /ОБУЧГИСТОЛОГИЯ (ДИСЦИПЛИНА)МЕТОДИКА ОБУЧЕНИЯМЕТОДИКА ПРЕПОДАВАНИ

Experiment K-6-12. Morphometric studies of atrial or granules and hepatocytes. Part 1: Morphometric study of the liver; Part 2: The atrial granular accumulations

The livers of flight, F, rats from the Cosmos 1887 mission were markedly paler and heavier than those of the synchronous, S, and vivarium, V, controls. In the F group, microscopic study revealed extensive hepatocytic intracytoplasmic vacuolization which was moderate in the S and minimal in the V groups. The vacuoles were not sudanophilic and therefore were regarded as glycogenic in origin. To obtain objective data concerning the extent of the vacuolization, livers were examined by computer assisted morphometry. Measurements of profile area and perimeter of the hepatocyte nuclei and vacuoles were evaluated according to stereological principles. Results indicated that the volume density of the nuclei was less in the F group than in the S(p equal less than 0.0002) and V(p equal less than 0.001) groups. Mean volume of individual nuclei did not differ. Volume density of the vacuoles was greater in the F than in the V group (p equal less than 0.02) while their mean diameter was less (p equal less than 0.05). To ascertain the relationship between increase in liver weight of the flight animals and the results of this study, an assumption was made that the specific gravity of the vacuolar contents was similar to the other extranuclear components of the hepatocyte. On that basis, calculations showed that the elevated vacuolar volume density in the flight group did not cause the increased liver weight in those animals, but that the non-nuclear, non-vacuolar parenchymal compartment did contribute significantly. Factors that may have played a causal role in liver weight and vacuolar compartment increases are discussed

Anatomical features of some triangles of human neck

Fascial-aponeurotic structure of neck is characterized by complexity of topographic relationships and anatomical structures variability that can be crucial while performing surgeries on neck. Despite long-term comprehensive study of the morphology of neck structures, contentious issues still remain uncertain, for example classification of neck fascia and anatomical roofs of neck triangles

Kepler-16b: safe in a resonance cell

The planet Kepler-16b is known to follow a circumbinary orbit around a system of two main-sequence stars. We construct stability diagrams in the "pericentric distance - eccentricity" plane, which show that Kepler-16b is in a hazardous vicinity to the chaos domain - just between the instability "teeth" in the space of orbital parameters. Kepler-16b survives, because it is close to the stable half-integer 11/2 orbital resonance with the central binary, safe inside a resonance cell bounded by the unstable 5/1 and 6/1 resonances. The neighboring resonance cells are vacant, because they are "purged" by Kepler-16b, due to overlap of first-order resonances with the planet. The newly discovered planets Kepler-34b and Kepler-35b are also safe inside resonance cells at the chaos border.Comment: 17 pages, including 5 figure