Multi-objective global optimization for hydrologic models

The development of automated (computer-based) calibration methods has focused mainly on the selection of a single-objective measure of the distance between the model-simulated output and the data and the selection of an automatic optimization algorithm to search for the parameter values which minimize that distance. However, practical experience with model calibration suggests that no single-objective function is adequate to measure the ways in which the model fails to match the important characteristics of the observed data. Given that some of the latest hydrologic models simulate several of the watershed output fluxes (e.g. water, energy, chemical constituents, etc.), there is a need for effective and efficient multi-objective calibration procedures capable of exploiting all of the useful information about the physical system contained in the measurement data time series. The MOCOM-UA algorithm, an effective and efficient methodology for solving the multiple-objective global optimization problem, is presented in this paper. The method is an extension of the successful SCE-UA single-objective global optimization algorithm. The features and capabilities of MOCOM-UA are illustrated by means of a simple hydrologic model calibration study

Toward improved calibration of hydrologic models: Multiple and noncommensurable measures of information

Several contributions to the hydrological literature have brought into question the continued usefulness of the classical paradigm for hydrologic model calibration. With the growing popularity of sophisticated 'physically based' watershed models (e.g., landsurface hydrology and hydrochemical models) the complexity of the calibration problem has been multiplied many fold. We disagree with the seemingly widespread conviction that the model calibration problem will simply disappear with the availability of more and better field measurements. This paper suggests that the emergence of a new and more powerful model calibration paradigm must include recognition of the inherent multiobjective nature of the problem and must explicitly recognize the role of model error. The results of our preliminary studies are presented. Through an illustrative case study we show that the multiobjective approach is not only practical and relatively simple to implement but can also provide useful information about the limitations of a model

MaaSim: A Liveability Simulation for Improving the Quality of Life in Cities

Urbanism is no longer planned on paper thanks to powerful models and 3D simulation platforms. However, current work is not open to the public and lacks an optimisation agent that could help in decision making. This paper describes the creation of an open-source simulation based on an existing Dutch liveability score with a built-in AI module. Features are selected using feature engineering and Random Forests. Then, a modified scoring function is built based on the former liveability classes. The score is predicted using Random Forest for regression and achieved a recall of 0.83 with 10-fold cross-validation. Afterwards, Exploratory Factor Analysis is applied to select the actions present in the model. The resulting indicators are divided into 5 groups, and 12 actions are generated. The performance of four optimisation algorithms is compared, namely NSGA-II, PAES, SPEA2 and eps-MOEA, on three established criteria of quality: cardinality, the spread of the solutions, spacing, and the resulting score and number of turns. Although all four algorithms show different strengths, eps-MOEA is selected to be the most suitable for this problem. Ultimately, the simulation incorporates the model and the selected AI module in a GUI written in the Kivy framework for Python. Tests performed on users show positive responses and encourage further initiatives towards joining technology and public applications.Comment: 16 page

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Background: Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. // Methods: We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung's disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. // Findings: We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung's disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middle-income countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in low-income countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. // Interpretation: Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

Toward improved calibration of hydrologic models: Multiple and noncommensurable measures of information

Several contributions to the hydrological literature have brought into question the continued usefulness of the classical paradigm for hydrologic model calibration. With the growing popularity of sophisticated 'physically based' watershed models (e.g., landsurface hydrology and hydrochemical models) the complexity of the calibration problem has been multiplied many fold. We disagree with the seemingly widespread conviction that the model calibration problem will simply disappear with the availability of more and better field measurements. This paper suggests that the emergence of a new and more powerful model calibration paradigm must include recognition of the inherent multiobjective nature of the problem and must explicitly recognize the role of model error. The results of our preliminary studies are presented. Through an illustrative case study we show that the multiobjective approach is not only practical and relatively simple to implement but can also provide useful information about the limitations of a model

Multi-objective global optimization for hydrologic models

The development of automated (computer-based) calibration methods has focused mainly on the selection of a single-objective measure of the distance between the model-simulated output and the data and the selection of an automatic optimization algorithm to search for the parameter values which minimize that distance. However, practical experience with model calibration suggests that no single-objective function is adequate to measure the ways in which the model fails to match the important characteristics of the observed data. Given that some of the latest hydrologic models simulate several of the watershed output fluxes (e.g. water, energy, chemical constituents, etc.), there is a need for effective and efficient multi-objective calibration procedures capable of exploiting all of the useful information about the physical system contained in the measurement data time series. The MOCOM-UA algorithm, an effective and efficient methodology for solving the multiple-objective global optimization problem, is presented in this paper. The method is an extension of the successful SCE-UA single-objective global optimization algorithm. The features and capabilities of MOCOM-UA are illustrated by means of a simple hydrologic model calibration study