Crime and the NTE: multi-classification crime (MCC) hot spots in time and space

This paper examines crime hot spots near licensed premises in the night-time economy (NTE) to investigate whether hot spots of four different classification of crime and disorder co-occur in time and place, namely violence, disorder, drugs and criminal damage. It introduces the concept of multi-classification crime (MCC) hot spots; the presence of hot spots of more than one crime classification at the same place. Furthermore, it explores the temporal patterns of identified MCC hot spots, to determine if they exhibit distinct spatio-temporal patterns. Getis Ord (GI*) hot spot analysis was used to identify locations of statistically significant hot spots of each of the four crime and disorder classifications. Strong spatial correlations were found between licensed premises and each of the four crime and disorder classifications analysed. MCC hot spots were also identified near licensed premises. Temporal profiling of the MCC hot spots revealed all four crime types were simultaneously present in time and place, near licensed premises, on Friday through Sunday in the early hours of the morning around premise closing times. At other times, criminal damage and drugs hot spots were found to occur earlier in the evening, and disorder and violence at later time periods. Criminal damage and drug hot spots flared for shorter time periods, 2–3 h, whereas disorder and violence hot spots were present for several hours. There was a small spatial lag between Friday and Saturday, with offences occurring approximately 1 h later on Saturdays. The implications of these findings for hot spot policing are discussed

Intra-week spatial-temporal patterns of crime

Since its original publication, routine activity theory has proven most instructive for understanding temporal patterns in crime. The most prominent of the temporal crime patterns investigated is seasonality: crime (most often assault) increases during the summer months and decreases once routine activities are less often outside. Despite the rather widespread literature on the seasonality of crime, there is very little research investigating temporal patterns of crime at shorter time intervals such as within the week or even within the day. This paper contributes to this literature through a spatial-temporal analysis of crime patterns for different days of the week. It is found that temporal patterns are present for different days of the week (more crime on weekends, as would be expected) and there is a spatial component to that temporal change. Specifically, aside from robbery and sexual assault at the micro-spatial unit of analysis (street segments) the spatial patterns of crime changed. With regard to the spatial pattern changes, we found that assaults and theft from vehicle had their spatial patterns change in predictable ways on Saturdays: assaults increased in the bar district and theft from vehicles increased in the downtown and recreational car park areas

Evaluation of the impact of a school gardening intervention on children's fruit and vegetable intake: a randomised controlled trial.

Background: Current academic literature suggests that school gardening programmes can provide an interactive environment with the potential to change children’s fruit and vegetable intake. This is the first cluster randomised controlled trial (RCT) designed to evaluate whether a school gardening programme can have an effect on children’s fruit and vegetable intake. Methods: The trial included children from 23 schools; these schools were randomised into two groups, one to receive the Royal Horticultural Society (RHS)-led intervention and the other to receive the less involved Teacher-led intervention. A 24-hour food diary (CADET) was used to collect baseline and follow-up dietary intake 18 months apart. Questionnaires were also administered to evaluate the intervention implementation. Results: A total of 641 children completed the trial with a mean age of 8.1 years (95% CI: 8.0, 8.4). The unadjusted results from multilevel regression analysis revealed that for combined daily fruit and vegetable intake the Teacher-led group had a higher daily mean change of 8 g (95% CI: −19, 36) compared to the RHS-led group -32 g (95% CI: −60, −3). However, after adjusting for possible confounders this difference was not significant (intervention effect: −40 g, 95% CI: −88, 1; p = 0.06). The adjusted analysis of process measures identified that if schools improved their gardening score by 3 levels (a measure of school gardening involvement - the scale has 6 levels from 0 ‘no garden’ to 5 ‘community involvement’), irrespective of group allocation, children had, on average, a daily increase of 81 g of fruit and vegetable intake (95% CI: 0, 163; p = 0.05) compared to schools that had no change in gardening score. Conclusions: This study is the first cluster randomised controlled trial designed to evaluate a school gardening intervention. The results have found very little evidence to support the claims that school gardening alone can improve children’s daily fruit and vegetable intake. However, when a gardening intervention is implemented at a high level within the school it may improve children’s daily fruit and vegetable intake by a portion. Improving children’s fruit and vegetable intake remains a challenging task

Expression of hypoxia-inducible factor-1α and cell cycle proteins in invasive breast cancer are estrogen receptor related

BACKGROUND: The transcription factor hypoxia-inducible factor-1 (HIF-1) is a key regulator of the cellular response to hypoxia. Previous studies showed that concentrations of its subunit HIF-1α, as a surrogate for HIF-1 activity, are increased during breast carcinogenesis and can independently predict prognosis in breast cancer. During carcinogenesis, the cell cycle is progressively deregulated, and proliferation rate is a strong prognostic factor in breast cancer. In this study we undertook a detailed evaluation of the relationships between HIF-1α and cell cycle-associated proteins. METHODS: In a representative estrogen receptor (ER) group of 150 breast cancers, the expression of HIF-1α, vascular endothelial growth factor, the ER, HER-2/neu, Ki-67, cyclin A, cyclin D(1), p21, p53, and Bcl-2 was investigated by immunohistochemistry. RESULTS: High concentrations (5% or more) of HIF-1α were associated with increased proliferation as shown by positive correlations with Ki-67 (P < 0.001) and the late S–G2-phase protein cyclin A (P < 0.001), but not with the G1-phase protein cyclin D(1). High HIF-1α concentrations were also strongly associated with p53 positivity (P < 0.001) and loss of Bcl-2 expression (P = 0.013). No association was found between p21 and HIF-1α (P = 0.105) in the whole group of patients. However, the subgroup of ER-positive cancers was characterized by a strong positive association between HIF-1α and p21 (P = 0.023), and HIF-1α lacked any relation with proliferation. CONCLUSION: HIF-1α overexpression is associated with increased proliferation, which might explain the adverse prognostic impact of increased concentrations of HIF-1α in invasive breast cancer. In ER-positive tumors, HIF-1α is associated with p21 but not against proliferation. This shows the importance of further functional analysis to unravel the role of HIF-1 in late cell cycle progression, and the link between HIF-1, p21, and ER

A pilot Internet "Value of Health" Panel: recruitment, participation and compliance

Objectives To pilot using a panel of members of the public to provide preference data via the Internet Methods A stratified random sample of members of the general public was recruited and familiarised with the standard gamble procedure using an Internet based tool. Health states were perdiodically presented in "sets" corresponding to different conditions, during the study. The following were described: Recruitment (proportion of people approached who were trained); Participation (a) the proportion of people trained who provided any preferences and (b) the proportion of panel members who contributed to each "set" of values; and Compliance (the proportion, per participant, of preference tasks which were completed). The influence of covariates on these outcomes was investigated using univariate and multivariate analyses. Results A panel of 112 people was recruited. 23% of those approached (n = 5,320) responded to the invitation, and 24% of respondents (n = 1,215) were willing to participate (net = 5.5%). However, eventual recruitment rates, following training, were low (2.1% of those approached). Recruitment from areas of high socioeconomic deprivation and among ethnic minority communities was low. Eighteen sets of health state descriptions were considered over 14 months. 74% of panel members carried out at least one valuation task. People from areas of higher socioeconomic deprivation and unmarried people were less likely to participate. An average of 41% of panel members expressed preferences on each set of descriptions. Compliance ranged from 3% to 100%. Conclusion It is feasible to establish a panel of members of the general public to express preferences on a wide range of health state descriptions using the Internet, although differential recruitment and attrition are important challenges. Particular attention to recruitment and retention in areas of high socioeconomic deprivation and among ethnic minority communities is necessary. Nevertheless, the panel approach to preference measurement using the Internet offers the potential to provide specific utility data in a responsive manner for use in economic evaluations and to address some of the outstanding methodological uncertainties in this field

Threat-sensitive anti-predator defence in precocial wader, the northern lapwing Vanellus vanellus

Birds exhibit various forms of anti-predator behaviours to avoid reproductive failure, with mobbing—observation, approach and usually harassment of a predator—being one of the most commonly observed. Here, we investigate patterns of temporal variation in the mobbing response exhibited by a precocial species, the northern lapwing (Vanellus vanellus). We test whether brood age and self-reliance, or the perceived risk posed by various predators, affect mobbing response of lapwings. We quantified aggressive interactions between lapwings and their natural avian predators and used generalized additive models to test how timing and predator species identity are related to the mobbing response of lapwings. Lapwings diversified mobbing response within the breeding season and depending on predator species. Raven Corvus corax, hooded crow Corvus cornix and harriers evoked the strongest response, while common buzzard Buteo buteo, white stork Ciconia ciconia, black-headed gull Chroicocephalus ridibundus and rook Corvus frugilegus were less frequently attacked. Lapwings increased their mobbing response against raven, common buzzard, white stork and rook throughout the breeding season, while defence against hooded crow, harriers and black-headed gull did not exhibit clear temporal patterns. Mobbing behaviour of lapwings apparently constitutes a flexible anti-predator strategy. The anti-predator response depends on predator species, which may suggest that lapwings distinguish between predator types and match mobbing response to the perceived hazard at different stages of the breeding cycle. We conclude that a single species may exhibit various patterns of temporal variation in anti-predator defence, which may correspond with various hypotheses derived from parental investment theory

Eliciting health state utilities for Dupuytren's contracture using a discrete choice experiment

Background and purpose An internet-based discrete choice experiment (DCE) was conducted to elicit preferences for a wide range of Dupuytren’s contracture (DC)-related health states. An algorithm was subsequently developed to convert these preferences into health state utilities that can be used to assess DC’s impact on quality of life and the value of its treatments. Methods Health state preferences for varying levels of DC hand severity were elicited via an internet survey from a sample of the UK adult population. Severity levels were deined using a combination of contractures (0, 45, or 90 degrees) in 8 proximal interphalangeal and metacarpophalangeal joints of the index, middle, ring, and little ingers. Right-handed, left-handed, and ambidextrous respondents indicated which hand was preferable in each of the 10 randomly-selected hand-pairings comparing different DC severity levels. For consistency across comparisons, anatomically precise digital hand drawings were used. To anchor preferences onto the traditional 0–1 utility scale used in health economic evaluations, unaffected hands were assigned a utility of 1.0 whereas the utility for a maximally affected hand (i.e., all 8 joints set at 90 degrees of contracture) was derived by asking respondents to indicate what combination of attributes and levels of the EQ-5D-5L proile most accurately relects the impact of living with such hand. Conditional logistic models were used to estimate indirect utilities, then rescaled to the anchor points on the EQ-5D-5L. Results Estimated utilities based on the responses of 1,745 qualiied respondents were 0.49, 0.57, and 0.63 for completely affected dominant hands, non-dominant hands, or ambidextrous hands, respectively. Utility for a dominant hand with 90-degree contracture in t h e metacarpophalangeal joints of the ring and little ingers was estimated to be 0.89. Separately, reducing the contracture of metacarpophalangeal joint for a little inger from 50 to 12 degrees would improve utility by 0.02. Interpretation DC is associated with substantial utility decrements. The algorithms presented herein provide a robust and lexible framework to assess utility for varying degrees of DC severity

Using Routinely Collected Administrative Data in Public Health Research: Geocoding Alcohol Outlet Data

We describe our process of geocoding alcohol outlets to create a national longitudinal exposure dataset for Wales, United Kingdom from 2006 to 2011. We investigated variation in the availability of data items and the quality of alcohol outlet addresses held within unitary authorities. We used a standard geocoding method augmented with a manual matching procedure to achieve a fully spatially referenced dataset. We found higher quality addresses are held for outlets based in urban areas, resulting in the automatic geocoding of 68 % of urban outlets, compared to 48 % in rural areas. Missing postcodes and a lack of address structure contributed to a lower geocoding proportion. An urban rural bias was removed with the development of a manual matching procedure. Only one-half of the unitary authorities provided data on on/off sales and opening times, which are important availability factors. The resulting outlet dataset is suitable for contributing to the evidence-base of alcohol availability and alcohol-related harm. Local government should be encouraged to use standardised data fields, including addresses, to enable accurate geocoding of alcohol outlets and facilitate research that aims to prevent alcohol-related harm. Standardising data collection would enable efficient secondary data reuse using record linkage techniques, allowing the retrospective creation and evaluation of population-based natural experiments to provide evidence for policy and practice

Necrosis related HIF-1α expression predicts prognosis in patients with endometrioid endometrial carcinoma

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hypoxia inducible factor 1α (HIF-1α) plays an essential role in the adaptive response of cells to hypoxia and is associated with aggressive tumour behaviour. We have shown p27^kip1, which is generally reduced in endometrial cancer, to be re-expressed in hypoxic regions. This possibly contributes to survival of cancer cells. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of HIF-1α and p27^kipexpression in patients with endometrioid endometrial cancer.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Expression levels of HIF-1α, CAIX, Glut-1, and p27^kip1were analyzed by immunohistochemistry. Percentage of positive cells, staining pattern (perinecrotic, diffuse, or mixed) and presence of necrosis were noted.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Necrosis was correlated with shortened disease free survival (DFS) (p <it>= </it>0.008) and overall survival (OS) (p <it>= </it>0.045). For DFS, perinecrotic HIF-1α expression was also prognostic (p <it>= </it>0.044). Moreover, high p27^kip1expression was an additional prognostic factor for these patients with perinecrotic HIF-1α expression. In multivariate Cox regression, perinecrotic HIF-expression emerged as an independent prognostic factor. Perinecrotic HIF-1α expression was significantly associated with CAIX and Glut-1 expression, pointing towards functional HIF-1.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In patients with endometrioid endometrial cancer, necrosis and necrosis-related expression of HIF-1α are important prognostic factors. More aggressive adjuvant treatment might be necessary to improve the outcome of patients with these characteristics.</p