Time series classification with ensembles of elastic distance measures

Several alternative distance measures for comparing time series have recently been proposed and evaluated on time series classification (TSC) problems. These include variants of dynamic time warping (DTW), such as weighted and derivative DTW, and edit distance-based measures, including longest common subsequence, edit distance with real penalty, time warp with edit, and move–split–merge. These measures have the common characteristic that they operate in the time domain and compensate for potential localised misalignment through some elastic adjustment. Our aim is to experimentally test two hypotheses related to these distance measures. Firstly, we test whether there is any significant difference in accuracy for TSC problems between nearest neighbour classifiers using these distance measures. Secondly, we test whether combining these elastic distance measures through simple ensemble schemes gives significantly better accuracy. We test these hypotheses by carrying out one of the largest experimental studies ever conducted into time series classification. Our first key finding is that there is no significant difference between the elastic distance measures in terms of classification accuracy on our data sets. Our second finding, and the major contribution of this work, is to define an ensemble classifier that significantly outperforms the individual classifiers. We also demonstrate that the ensemble is more accurate than approaches not based in the time domain. Nearly all TSC papers in the data mining literature cite DTW (with warping window set through cross validation) as the benchmark for comparison. We believe that our ensemble is the first ever classifier to significantly outperform DTW and as such raises the bar for future work in this area

Incident HIV infection has fallen rapidly in men who have sex with men in Melbourne, Australia (2013-2017) but not in the newly-arrived Asian-born.

BACKGROUND: We examined differences in incident HIV infection between newly-arrived Asian-born and other men who have sex with men (MSM) after the introduction of universal HIV treatment guidelines in 2015 and pre-exposure prophylaxis in 2016. METHODS: Clinical, demographic, laboratory and behavioural data on MSM presenting for HIV testing at the Melbourne Sexual Health Centre from July 2013 to June 2017 were extracted. We compared the proportion of newly-arrived (four years or less in Australia), Asian-born and other MSM tested each year who were diagnosed with incident HIV infection (negative test within one year or diagnosis with indeterminate or negative Western Blot). RESULTS: We analysed 35,743 testing episodes in 12,180 MSM, including 2781 testing episodes in 1047 newly-arrived Asian-born MSM. The proportion of other MSM tested each year who were diagnosed with incident HIV infection fell from 0.83% in 2014 to 0.38% in 2017 (p = .001), but did not fall in newly-arrived Asian-born MSM (from 1.18% in 2014 to 1.56% in 2017, p = .76). In the multivariate logistic regression, in 2016/2017 but not in 2014/2015, being newly-arrived Asian-born was associated with an increased odds of diagnosis of incident HIV infection (aOR 3.29, 95%CI 1.82-5.94, p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: The epidemiology of HIV in Melbourne Australia has changed dramatically. While there has been an overall reduction amongst MSM, the incidence of HIV in newly-arrived Asian-born MSM remains high. Failing to address these new inequalities leaves individuals at risk and may offset the population benefit of biomedical HIV prevention

Validation of the Chronic Pain Acceptance Questionnaire-8 in an Australian pain clinic sample

Background: Recently, an 8-item short-form version of the Chronic Pain Acceptance Questionnaire (CPAQ-8) was developed predominantly in an internet sample. Further investigation of the factor structure in a multidisciplinary pain clinic sample is required. Investigation of the concurrent validity of the CPAQ-8 after accounting for the effects of variables commonly measured in the pain clinic setting is also necessary. Purpose: This study examines the factor structure and concurrent validity of the CPAQ-8 in a sample of treatmentseeking patients who attended a multidisciplinary pain clinic. Methods: Participants were 334 patients who attended an Australian multidisciplinary pain service. Participants completed the CPAQ, a demographic questionnaire, and measures of patient adjustment and functioning. Results: Confirmatory factor analysis identified a two-factor 8-item model consisting of Activity Engagement and Pain Willingness factors (SRMR=0.039, RMSEA=0.063, CFI=0.973, TLI=0.960) was superior to both the CPAQ and CPAQ with an item removed. The CPAQ and CPAQ-8 total scores were highly correlated (r=0.93). After accounting for pain intensity, the CPAQ-8 was a significant predictor of depression, anxiety, stress, and disability. The subscales of the CPAQ-8 were both unique contributors to depression and disability in regression analyses, after accounting for pain intensity and kinesiophobia, and after accounting for pain intensity and catastrophizing. Conclusions: The CPAQ-8 has a sound factor structure and similar psychometric properties to the CPAQ; it may have clinical utility as a measure of pain acceptance in treatmentseeking, chronic pain patients

Impact of stoichiometry representation on simulation of genotype-phenotype relationships in metabolic networks.

<div><p>Genome-scale metabolic networks provide a comprehensive structural framework for modeling genotype-phenotype relationships through flux simulations. The solution space for the metabolic flux state of the cell is typically very large and optimization-based approaches are often necessary for predicting the active metabolic state under specific environmental conditions. The objective function to be used in such optimization algorithms is directly linked with the biological hypothesis underlying the model and therefore it is one of the most relevant parameters for successful modeling. Although linear combination of selected fluxes is widely used for formulating metabolic objective functions, we show that the resulting optimization problem is sensitive towards stoichiometry representation of the metabolic network. This undesirable sensitivity leads to different simulation results when using numerically different but biochemically equivalent stoichiometry representations and thereby makes biological interpretation intrinsically subjective and ambiguous. We hereby propose a new method, Minimization of Metabolites Balance (MiMBl), which decouples the artifacts of stoichiometry representation from the formulation of the desired objective functions, by casting objective functions using metabolite turnovers rather than fluxes. By simulating perturbed metabolic networks, we demonstrate that the use of stoichiometry representation independent algorithms is fundamental for unambiguously linking modeling results with biological interpretation. For example, MiMBl allowed us to expand the scope of metabolic modeling in elucidating the mechanistic basis of several genetic interactions in <em>Saccharomyces cerevisiae</em>.</p> </div

Gonorrhoea: tackling the global epidemic in the era of rising antimicrobial resistance.

This Special Issue of Sexual Health aims to collate the latest evidence base focussed on understanding the current epidemic and transmission of gonorrhoea, choice of treatment, molecular epidemiology application, concerns about antimicrobial resistance and alternative prevention and control for gonorrhoea

Replication of an empirical approach to delineate the heterogeneity of chronic unexplained fatigue

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) is defined by self-reported symptoms. There are no diagnostic signs or laboratory markers, and the pathophysiology remains inchoate. In part, difficulties identifying and replicating biomarkers and elucidating the pathophysiology reflect the heterogeneous nature of the syndromic illness CFS. We conducted this analysis of people from defined metropolitan, urban, and rural populations to replicate our earlier empirical delineation of medically unexplained chronic fatigue and CFS into discrete endophenotypes. Both the earlier and current analyses utilized quantitative measures of functional impairment and symptoms as well as laboratory data. This study and the earlier one enrolled participants from defined populations and measured the internal milieu, which differentiates them from studies of clinic referrals that examine only clinical phenotypes.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This analysis evaluated 386 women identified in a population-based survey of chronic fatigue and unwellness in metropolitan, urban, and rural populations of the state of Georgia, USA. We used variables previously demonstrated to effectively delineate endophenotypes in an attempt to replicate identification of these endophenotypes. Latent class analyses were used to derive the classes, and these were compared and contrasted to those described in the previous study based in Wichita, Kansas.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We identified five classes in the best fit analysis. Participants in Class 1 (25%) were polysymptomatic, with sleep problems and depressed mood. Class 2 (24%) was also polysymptomatic, with insomnia and depression, but participants were also obese with associated metabolic strain. Class 3 (20%) had more selective symptoms but was equally obese with metabolic strain. Class 4 (20%) and Class 5 (11%) consisted of nonfatigued, less symptomatic individuals, Class 4 being older and Class 5 younger. The classes were generally validated by independent variables. People with CFS fell equally into Classes 1 and 2. Similarities to the Wichita findings included the same four main defining variables of obesity, sleep problems, depression, and the multiplicity of symptoms. Four out of five classes were similar across both studies.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These data support the hypothesis that chronic medically unexplained fatigue is heterogeneous and can be delineated into discrete endophenotypes that can be replicated. The data do not support the current perception that CFS represents a unique homogeneous disease and suggests broader criteria may be more explanatory. This replication suggests that delineation of endophenotypes of CFS and associated ill health may be necessary in order to better understand etiology and provide more patient-focused treatments.</p

Evidence for a heritable predisposition to Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (CFS) came to attention in the 1980s, but initial investigations did not find organic causes. Now decades later, the etiology of CFS has yet to be understood, and the role of genetic predisposition in CFS remains controversial. Recent reports of CFS association with the retrovirus xenotropic murine leukemic virus-related virus (XMRV) or other murine leukemia related retroviruses (MLV) might also suggest underlying genetic implications within the host immune system.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We present analyses of familial clustering of CFS in a computerized genealogical resource linking multiple generations of genealogy data with medical diagnosis data of a large Utah health care system. We compare pair-wise relatedness among cases to expected relatedness in the Utah population, and we estimate risk for CFS for first, second, and third degree relatives of CFS cases.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We observed significant excess relatedness of CFS cases compared to that expected in this population. Significant excess relatedness was observed for both close (p <0.001) and distant relationships (p = 0.010). We also observed significant excess CFS relative risk among first (2.70, 95% CI: 1.56-4.66), second (2.34, 95% CI: 1.31-4.19), and third degree relatives (1.93, 95% CI: 1.21-3.07).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These analyses provide strong support for a heritable contribution to predisposition to Chronic Fatigue Syndrome. A population of high-risk CFS pedigrees has been identified, the study of which may provide additional understanding.</p

How common is chronic fatigue syndrome; how long is a piece of string?

Commentary o

Co-circulation of Multidrug-resistant Shigella Among Men Who Have Sex With Men in Australia.

BACKGROUND: In urban Australia, the burden of shigellosis is either in returning travelers from shigellosis-endemic regions or in men who have sex with men (MSM). Here, we combine genomic data with comprehensive epidemiological data on sexual exposure and travel to describe the spread of multidrug-resistant Shigella lineages. METHODS: A population-level study of all cultured Shigella isolates in the state of Victoria, Australia, was undertaken from 1 January 2016 through 31 March 2018. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing, whole-genome sequencing, and bioinformatic analyses of 545 Shigella isolates were performed at the Microbiological Diagnostic Unit Public Health Laboratory. Risk factor data on travel and sexual exposure were collected through enhanced surveillance forms or by interviews. RESULTS: Rates of antimicrobial resistance were high, with 17.6% (95/541) and 50.6% (274/541) resistance to ciprofloxacin and azithromycin, respectively. There were strong associations between antimicrobial resistance, phylogeny, and epidemiology. Specifically, 2 major MSM-associated lineages were identified: a Shigellasonnei lineage (n = 159) and a Shigella flexneri 2a lineage (n = 105). Of concern, 147/159 (92.4%) of isolates within the S. sonnei MSM-associated lineage harbored mutations associated with reduced susceptibility to recommended oral antimicrobials: namely, azithromycin, trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, and ciprofloxacin. Long-read sequencing demonstrated global dissemination of multidrug-resistant plasmids across Shigella species and lineages, but predominantly associated with MSM isolates. CONCLUSIONS: Our contemporary data highlight the ongoing public health threat posed by resistant Shigella, both in Australia and globally. Urgent multidisciplinary public health measures are required to interrupt transmission and prevent infection

The acceptability and usability of two HIV self‐test kits among men who have sex with men: a randomised crossover trial

Objectives: To compare the usability and acceptability of oral fluid- and blood-based HIV self-test kits among men who have sex with men in Australia. Design: Randomised crossover trial. Setting, participants: Gay, bisexual, and other men aged 18 years or older who have sex with men, who attended two metropolitan sexual health clinics in Sydney and Melbourne, 7 January – 10 December 2019. Main outcome measures: Ease of use of HIV self-test kits; preferred HIV self-test type; difficulties encountered during HIV self-testing. Results: 170 men were recruited (median age, 34 years; interquartile range, 29–43 years); 144 identified as gay (85%), 96 were born outside Australia (57%). Participants were more likely to report the oral fluid HIV self-test was easy to use than the blood-based self-test (oral fluid, 99%; blood, 86%; odds ratio [OR], 3.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4–6.6). The oral fluid test was preferred by 98 participants (58%; 95% CI, 50–65%), the blood-based test by 69 (41%; 95% CI, 33–48%). Difficulties with the oral fluid test kit identified by observing nurses included problems placing the buffer solution into the stand (40 of 170 participants, 24%) and not swabbing both gums (23 of 169, 14%); difficulties with the blood-based test kit included problems filling the device test channel (69 of 170, 41%) and squeezing the finger firmly enough to generate a blood drop (42 of 170, 25%). No participant received an invalid result with the oral fluid self-test; two of 162 participants (1%) received invalid results with the blood self-test. After adjusting for age, education level, and ethnic background, characteristics associated with higher odds of using HIV self-testing in the future were overseas birth (adjusted OR, 3.07; 95% CI, 1.42–6.64), and self-evaluated ease of use and confidence in using the kits. Conclusion: It is important to provide options for obtaining both oral fluid- and blood-based HIV self-tests. The usability and acceptability of both kits were high, but the ease of use and perceived accuracy influenced test kit preference