Space shuttle SRM plume expansion sensitivity analysis

The exhaust plumes of the space shuttle solid rocket motors can have a significant effect on the base pressure and base drag of the shuttle vehicle. A parametric analysis was conducted to assess the sensitivity of the initial plume expansion angle of analytical solid rocket motor flow fields to various analytical input parameters and operating conditions. The results of the analysis are presented and conclusions reached regarding the sensitivity of the initial plume expansion angle to each parameter investigated. Operating conditions parametrically varied were chamber pressure, nozzle inlet angle, nozzle throat radius of curvature ratio and propellant particle loading. Empirical particle parameters investigated were mean size, local drag coefficient and local heat transfer coefficient. Sensitivity of the initial plume expansion angle to gas thermochemistry model and local drag coefficient model assumptions were determined

Assessment of analytical techniques for predicting solid propellant exhaust plumes and plume impingement environments

An analysis of experimental nozzle, exhaust plume, and exhaust plume impingement data is presented. The data were obtained for subscale solid propellant motors with propellant Al loadings of 2, 10 and 15% exhausting to simulated altitudes of 50,000, 100,000 and 112,000 ft. Analytical predictions were made using a fully coupled two-phase method of characteristics numerical solution and a technique for defining thermal and pressure environments experienced by bodies immersed in two-phase exhaust plumes

Rocket exhaust plume computer program improvement. Volume 1: Summary: Method of characteristics nozzle and plume programs

A summary is presented of the various documents that discuss and describe the computer programs and analysis techniques which are available for rocket nozzle and exhaust plume calculations. The basic method of characteristics program is discussed, along with such auxiliary programs as the plume impingement program, the plot program and the thermochemical properties program

Empirical Study of Simulated Two-planet Microlensing Event

We undertake the first study of two-planet microlensing models recovered from simulations of microlensing events generated by realistic multi-planet systems in which 292 planetary events including 16 two-planet events were detected from 6690 simulated light curves. We find that when two planets are recovered, their parameters are usually close to those of the two planets in the system most responsible for the perturbations. However, in one of the 16 examples, the apparent mass of both detected planets was more than doubled by the unmodeled influence of a third, massive planet. This fraction is larger than, but statistically consistent with, the roughly 1.5% rate of serious mass errors due to unmodeled planetary companions for the 274 cases from the same simulation in which a single planet is recovered. We conjecture that an analogous effect due to unmodeled stellar companions may occur more frequently. For seven out of 23 cases in which two planets in the system would have been detected separately, only one planet was recovered because the perturbations due to the two planets had similar forms. This is a small fraction (7/274) of all recovered single-planet models, but almost a third of all events that might plausibly have led to two-planet models. Still, in these cases, the recovered planet tends to have parameters similar to one of the two real planets most responsible for the anomaly.Comment: 21 pages, 9 figures, 2 tables; submitted to ApJ; for a short video introducing the key results, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhK4a6sbfO

Supersonic Flow of Chemically Reacting Gas-Particle Mixtures. Volume 2: RAMP - A Computer Code for Analysis of Chemically Reacting Gas-Particle Flows

A computer program written in conjunction with the numerical solution of the flow of chemically reacting gas-particle mixtures was documented. The solution to the set of governing equations was obtained by utilizing the method of characteristics. The equations cast in characteristic form were shown to be formally the same for ideal, frozen, chemical equilibrium and chemical non-equilibrium reacting gas mixtures. The characteristic directions for the gas-particle system are found to be the conventional gas Mach lines, the gas streamlines and the particle streamlines. The basic mesh construction for the flow solution is along streamlines and normals to the streamlines for axisymmetric or two-dimensional flow. The analysis gives detailed information of the supersonic flow and provides for a continuous solution of the nozzle and exhaust plume flow fields. Boundary conditions for the flow solution are either the nozzle wall or the exhaust plume boundary

Supersonic flow of chemically reacting gas-particle mixtures. Volume 1: A theoretical analysis and development of the numerical solution

A numerical solution for chemically reacting supersonic gas-particle flows in rocket nozzles and exhaust plumes was described. The gas-particle flow solution is fully coupled in that the effects of particle drag and heat transfer between the gas and particle phases are treated. Gas and particles exchange momentum via the drag exerted on the gas by the particles. Energy is exchanged between the phases via heat transfer (convection and/or radiation). Thermochemistry calculations (chemical equilibrium, frozen or chemical kinetics) were shown to be uncoupled from the flow solution and, as such, can be solved separately. The solution to the set of governing equations is obtained by utilizing the method of characteristics. The equations cast in characteristic form are shown to be formally the same for ideal, frozen, chemical equilibrium and chemical non-equilibrium reacting gas mixtures. The particle distribution is represented in the numerical solution by a finite distribution of particle sizes

Comparing families of dynamic causal models

Mathematical models of scientific data can be formally compared using Bayesian model evidence. Previous applications in the biological sciences have mainly focussed on model selection in which one first selects the model with the highest evidence and then makes inferences based on the parameters of that model. This “best model” approach is very useful but can become brittle if there are a large number of models to compare, and if different subjects use different models. To overcome this shortcoming we propose the combination of two further approaches: (i) family level inference and (ii) Bayesian model averaging within families. Family level inference removes uncertainty about aspects of model structure other than the characteristic of interest. For example: What are the inputs to the system? Is processing serial or parallel? Is it linear or nonlinear? Is it mediated by a single, crucial connection? We apply Bayesian model averaging within families to provide inferences about parameters that are independent of further assumptions about model structure. We illustrate the methods using Dynamic Causal Models of brain imaging data

The competition dynamics of resistant and sensitive infections

Antimicrobial resistance is a major health problem with complex dynamics. Resistance may occur in an area because treated infections mutated and developed resistance, and the proportion of infections in a population may then increase. We developed a novel and flexible model that captures several features of resistance dynamics and competition. The model is able to account for many antimicrobials and thus can generally explore competition dynamics and their impact on pathogens and bacteria. Unlike simpler models, our nested model allows the population of resistant pathogen to smoothly increase or decrease. Time dependent dynamics are incorporated into difference equations which examines the effects of 12 parameters. This enables us to explicitly include three key competition dynamics: the transmission cost of resistance that occurs between hosts, the fitness cost of resistance that occurs within untreated hosts, and the release of this competition (from the fitness cost) that occurs once a host is treated. For malaria, our results suggest that without competitive release, drug resistance does not emerge. However, once emerged, competitive release has little effect, and the best way to mitigate the spread is to ensure that treatment is very effective

Nowhere to Run; Nowhere to Hide: The Reality of Being a Law Library Director in Times of Great Opportunity and Significant Challenges

This is an edited version of remarks presented at \u27Nowhere to Run, Nowhere to Hide\u27: The Reality of Being a Law Library Director in Times of Great Opportunity and Significant Challenges, January 5, 2015, at the Association of American Law Schools Annual Meeting, Washington, D.C