Iraq War mortality estimates: A systematic review

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In March 2003, the United States invaded Iraq. The subsequent number, rates, and causes of mortality in Iraq resulting from the war remain unclear, despite intense international attention. Understanding mortality estimates from modern warfare, where the majority of casualties are civilian, is of critical importance for public health and protection afforded under international humanitarian law. We aimed to review the studies, reports and counts on Iraqi deaths since the start of the war and assessed their methodological quality and results.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We performed a systematic search of 15 electronic databases from inception to January 2008. In addition, we conducted a non-structured search of 3 other databases, reviewed study reference lists and contacted subject matter experts. We included studies that provided estimates of Iraqi deaths based on primary research over a reported period of time since the invasion. We excluded studies that summarized mortality estimates and combined non-fatal injuries and also studies of specific sub-populations, e.g. under-5 mortality. We calculated crude and cause-specific mortality rates attributable to violence and average deaths per day for each study, where not already provided.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Thirteen studies met the eligibility criteria. The studies used a wide range of methodologies, varying from sentinel-data collection to population-based surveys. Studies assessed as the highest quality, those using population-based methods, yielded the highest estimates. Average deaths per day ranged from 48 to 759. The cause-specific mortality rates attributable to violence ranged from 0.64 to 10.25 per 1,000 per year.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our review indicates that, despite varying estimates, the mortality burden of the war and its sequelae on Iraq is large. The use of established epidemiological methods is rare. This review illustrates the pressing need to promote sound epidemiologic approaches to determining mortality estimates and to establish guidelines for policy-makers, the media and the public on how to interpret these estimates.</p

Testosterone levels are negatively associated with childlessness in males, but positively related to offspring count in fathers

Variation in testosterone (T) is thought to affect the allocation of effort between reproductive and parenting strategies. Here, using a large sample of elderly American men (n = 754) and women (n = 669) we examined the relationship between T and self-reported parenthood, as well as the relationship between T and number of reported children. Results supported previous findings from the literature, showing that fathers had lower T levels than men who report no children. Furthermore, we found that among fathers T levels were positively associated with the number of children a man reports close to the end of his lifespan. Results were maintained when controlling for a number of relevant factors such as time of T sampling, participant age, educational attainment, BMI, marital status and reported number of sex partners. In contrast, T was not associated with either motherhood or the number of children women had, suggesting that, at least in this sample, T does not influence the allocation of effort between reproductive and parenting strategies among women. Findings from this study contribute to the growing body of literature suggesting that, among men, pair bonding and paternal care are associated with lower T levels, while searching and acquiring sex partners is associated with higher T levels.27 Jun 2013: Pollet TV, Cobey KD, van der Meij L (2013) Correction: Testosterone Levels Are Negatively Associated with Childlessness in Males, but Positively Related to Offspring Count in Fathers. PLoS ONE 8(6): 10.1371/annotation/bccccb7e-48a7-4594-b3e6-ce8c9d2489a2

A Decade Later, How Much of Rwanda's Musculoskeletal Impairment Is Caused by the War in 1994 and by Related Violence?

BACKGROUND: In 1994 there was a horrific genocide in Rwanda following years of tension, resulting in the murder of at least 800,000 people. Although many people were injured in addition to those killed, no attempt has been made to assess the lasting burden of physical injuries related to these events. The aim of this study was to estimate the current burden of musculoskeletal impairment (MSI) attributable to the 1994 war and related violence. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A national cross-sectional survey of MSI was conducted in Rwanda. 105 clusters of 80 people were selected through probability proportionate to size sampling. Households within clusters were selected through compact segment sampling. Enumerated people answered a seven-question screening test to assess whether they might have an MSI. Those who were classed as potential cases in the screening test were examined and interviewed by a physiotherapist, using a standard protocol that recorded the site, nature, cause, and severity of the MSI. People with MSI due to trauma were asked whether this trauma occurred during the 1990-1994 war or during the episodes that preceded or followed this war. Out of 8,368 people enumerated, 6,757 were available for screening and examination (80.8%). 352 people were diagnosed with an MSI (prevalence=5.2%, 95% CI=4.5-5.9%). 106 cases of MSI (30.6%) were classified as resulting from trauma, based on self-report and the physiotherapist's assessment. Of these, 14 people (13.2%) reported that their trauma-related MSI occurred during the 1990-1994 war, and a further 7 (6.6%) that their trauma-related MSI occurred during the violent episodes that preceded and followed the war, giving an overall prevalence of trauma-related MSI related to the 1990-1994 war of 0.3% (95% CI=0.2-0.4%). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: A decade on, the overall prevalence of MSI was relatively high in Rwanda but few cases appeared to be the result of the 1994 war or related violence

Stability in Ecosystem Functioning across a Climatic Threshold and Contrasting Forest Regimes

Classical ecological theory predicts that changes in the availability of essential resources such as nitrogen should lead to changes in plant community composition due to differences in species-specific nutrient requirements. What remains unknown, however, is the extent to which climate change will alter the relationship between plant communities and the nitrogen cycle. During intervals of climate change, do changes in nitrogen cycling lead to vegetation change or do changes in community composition alter the nitrogen dynamics? We used long-term ecological data to determine the role of nitrogen availability in changes of forest species composition under a rapidly changing climate during the early Holocene (16k to 8k cal. yrs. BP). A statistical computational analysis of ecological data spanning 8,000 years showed that secondary succession from a coniferous to deciduous forest occurred independently of changes in the nitrogen cycle. As oak replaced pine under a warming climate, nitrogen cycling rates increased. Interestingly, the mechanism by which the species interacted with nitrogen remained stable across this threshold change in climate and in the dominant tree species. This suggests that changes in tree population density over successional time scales are not driven by nitrogen availability. Thus, current models of forest succession that incorporate the effects of available nitrogen may be over-estimating tree population responses to changes in this resource, which may result in biased predictions of future forest dynamics under climate warming

Public health, conflict and human rights: toward a collaborative research agenda

Although epidemiology is increasingly contributing to policy debates on issues of conflict and human rights, its potential is still underutilized. As a result, this article calls for greater collaboration between public health researchers, conflict analysts and human rights monitors, with special emphasis on retrospective, population-based surveys. The article surveys relevant recent public health research, explains why collaboration is useful, and outlines possible future research scenarios, including those pertaining to the indirect and long-term consequences of conflict; human rights and security in conflict prone areas; and the link between human rights, conflict, and International Humanitarian Law

Predation by Bears Drives Senescence in Natural Populations of Salmon

Classic evolutionary theory predicts that populations experiencing higher rates of environmentally caused (“extrinsic”) mortality should senesce more rapidly, but this theory usually neglects plausible relationships between an individual's senescent condition and its susceptibility to extrinsic mortality. We tested for the evolutionary importance of this condition dependence by comparing senescence rates among natural populations of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) subject to varying degrees of predation by brown bears (Ursus arctos). We related senescence rates in six populations to (1) the overall rate of extrinsic mortality, and (2) the degree of condition dependence in this mortality. Senescence rates were determined by modeling the mortality of individually-tagged breeding salmon at each site. The overall rate of extrinsic mortality was estimated as the long-term average of the annual percentage of salmon killed by bears. The degree of condition dependence was estimated as the extent to which bears killed salmon that exhibited varying degrees of senescence. We found that the degree of condition dependence in extrinsic mortality was very important in driving senescence: populations where bears selectively killed fish showing advanced senescence were those that senesced least rapidly. The overall rate of extrinsic mortality also contributed to among-population variation in senescence-but to a lesser extent. Condition-dependent susceptibility to extrinsic mortality should be incorporated more often into theoretical models and should be explicitly tested in natural populations

Translocations as Experiments in the Ecological Resilience of an Asocial Mega-Herbivore

Species translocations are remarkable experiments in evolutionary ecology, and increasingly critical to biodiversity conservation. Elaborate socio-ecological hypotheses for translocation success, based on theoretical fitness relationships, are untested and lead to complex uncertainty rather than parsimonious solutions. We used an extraordinary 89 reintroduction and 102 restocking events releasing 682 black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis) to 81 reserves in southern Africa (1981–2005) to test the influence of interacting socio-ecological and individual characters on post-release survival. We predicted that the socio-ecological context should feature more prominently after restocking than reintroduction because released rhinoceros interact with resident conspecifics. Instead, an interaction between release cohort size and habitat quality explained reintroduction success but only individuals' ages explained restocking outcomes. Achieving translocation success for many species may not be as complicated as theory suggests. Black rhino, and similarly asocial generalist herbivores without substantial predators, are likely to be resilient to ecological challenges and robust candidates for crisis management in a changing world

Users' guides to the medical literature: how to use an article about mortality in a humanitarian emergency

The accurate interpretation of mortality surveys in humanitarian crises is useful for both public health responses and security responses. Recent examples suggest that few medical personnel and researchers can accurately interpret the validity of a mortality survey in these settings. Using an example of a mortality survey from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), we demonstrate important methodological considerations that readers should keep in mind when reading a mortality survey to determine the validity of the study and the applicability of the findings to their settings

Green Sturgeon Physical Habitat Use in the Coastal Pacific Ocean

The green sturgeon (Acipenser medirostris) is a highly migratory, oceanic, anadromous species with a complex life history that makes it vulnerable to species-wide threats in both freshwater and at sea. Green sturgeon population declines have preceded legal protection and curtailment of activities in marine environments deemed to increase its extinction risk. Yet, its marine habitat is poorly understood. We built a statistical model to characterize green sturgeon marine habitat using data from a coastal tracking array located along the Siletz Reef near Newport, Oregon, USA that recorded the passage of 37 acoustically tagged green sturgeon. We classified seafloor physical habitat features with high-resolution bathymetric and backscatter data. We then described the distribution of habitat components and their relationship to green sturgeon presence using ordination and subsequently used generalized linear model selection to identify important habitat components. Finally, we summarized depth and temperature recordings from seven green sturgeon present off the Oregon coast that were fitted with pop-off archival geolocation tags. Our analyses indicated that green sturgeon, on average, spent a longer duration in areas with high seafloor complexity, especially where a greater proportion of the substrate consists of boulders. Green sturgeon in marine habitats are primarily found at depths of 20–60 meters and from 9.5–16.0°C. Many sturgeon in this study were likely migrating in a northward direction, moving deeper, and may have been using complex seafloor habitat because it coincides with the distribution of benthic prey taxa or provides refuge from predators. Identifying important green sturgeon marine habitat is an essential step towards accurately defining the conditions that are necessary for its survival and will eventually yield range-wide, spatially explicit predictions of green sturgeon distribution