The fallacy of enrolling only high-risk subjects in cancer prevention trials: Is there a "free lunch"?

BACKGROUND: There is a common belief that most cancer prevention trials should be restricted to high-risk subjects in order to increase statistical power. This strategy is appropriate if the ultimate target population is subjects at the same high-risk. However if the target population is the general population, three assumptions may underlie the decision to enroll high-risk subject instead of average-risk subjects from the general population: higher statistical power for the same sample size, lower costs for the same power and type I error, and a correct ratio of benefits to harms. We critically investigate the plausibility of these assumptions. METHODS: We considered each assumption in the context of a simple example. We investigated statistical power for fixed sample size when the investigators assume that relative risk is invariant over risk group, but when, in reality, risk difference is invariant over risk groups. We investigated possible costs when a trial of high-risk subjects has the same power and type I error as a larger trial of average-risk subjects from the general population. We investigated the ratios of benefit to harms when extrapolating from high-risk to average-risk subjects. RESULTS: Appearances here are misleading. First, the increase in statistical power with a trial of high-risk subjects rather than the same number of average-risk subjects from the general population assumes that the relative risk is the same for high-risk and average-risk subjects. However, if the absolute risk difference rather than the relative risk were the same, the power can be less with the high-risk subjects. In the analysis of data from a cancer prevention trial, we found that invariance of absolute risk difference over risk groups was nearly as plausible as invariance of relative risk over risk groups. Therefore a priori assumptions of constant relative risk across risk groups are not robust, limiting extrapolation of estimates of benefit to the general population. Second, a trial of high-risk subjects may cost more than a larger trial of average risk subjects with the same power and type I error because of additional recruitment and diagnostic testing to identify high-risk subjects. Third, the ratio of benefits to harms may be more favorable in high-risk persons than in average-risk persons in the general population, which means that extrapolating this ratio to the general population would be misleading. Thus there is no free lunch when using a trial of high-risk subjects to extrapolate results to the general population. CONCLUSION: Unless the intervention is targeted to only high-risk subjects, cancer prevention trials should be implemented in the general population

Selecting patients for randomized trials: a systematic approach based on risk group

BACKGROUND: A key aspect of randomized trial design is the choice of risk group. Some trials include patients from the entire at-risk population, others accrue only patients deemed to be at increased risk. We present a simple statistical approach for choosing between these approaches. The method is easily adapted to determine which of several competing definitions of high risk is optimal. METHOD: We treat eligibility criteria for a trial, such as a smoking history, as a prediction rule associated with a certain sensitivity (the number of patients who have the event and who are classified as high risk divided by the total number patients who have an event) and specificity (the number of patients who do not have an event and who do not meet criteria for high risk divided by the total number of patients who do not have an event). We then derive simple formulae to determine the proportion of patients receiving intervention, and the proportion who experience an event, where either all patients or only those at high risk are treated. We assume that the relative risk associated with intervention is the same over all choices of risk group. The proportion of events and interventions are combined using a net benefit approach and net benefit compared between strategies. RESULTS: We applied our method to design a trial of adjuvant therapy after prostatectomy. We were able to demonstrate that treating a high risk group was superior to treating all patients; choose the optimal definition of high risk; test the robustness of our results by sensitivity analysis. Our results had a ready clinical interpretation that could immediately aid trial design. CONCLUSION: The choice of risk group in randomized trials is usually based on rather informal methods. Our simple method demonstrates that this decision can be informed by simple statistical analyses

Attosecond control of electrons emitted from a nanoscale metal tip

Attosecond science is based on steering of electrons with the electric field of well-controlled femtosecond laser pulses. It has led to, for example, the generation of XUV light pulses with a duration in the sub-100-attosecond regime, to the measurement of intra-molecular dynamics by diffraction of an electron taken from the molecule under scrutiny, and to novel ultrafast electron holography. All these effects have been observed with atoms or molecules in the gas phase. Although predicted to occur, a strong light-phase sensitivity of electrons liberated by few-cycle laser pulses from solids has hitherto been elusive. Here we show a carrier-envelope (C-E) phase-dependent current modulation of up to 100% recorded in spectra of electrons laser-emitted from a nanometric tungsten tip. Controlled by the C-E phase, electrons originate from either one or two sub-500as long instances within the 6-fs laser pulse, leading to the presence or absence of spectral interference. We also show that coherent elastic re-scattering of liberated electrons takes place at the metal surface. Due to field enhancement at the tip, a simple laser oscillator suffices to reach the required peak electric field strengths, allowing attosecond science experiments to be performed at the 100-Megahertz repetition rate level and rendering complex amplified laser systems dispensable. Practically, this work represents a simple, exquisitely sensitive C-E phase sensor device, which can be shrunk in volume down to ~ 1cm3. The results indicate that the above-mentioned novel attosecond science techniques developed with and for atoms and molecules can also be employed with solids. In particular, we foresee sub-femtosecond (sub-) nanometre probing of (collective) electron dynamics, such as plasmon polaritons, in solid-state systems ranging in size from mesoscopic solids via clusters to single protruding atoms.Comment: Final manuscript version submitted to Natur

Deep CO₂ in the end-Triassic Central Atlantic Magmatic Province

Large Igneous Province eruptions coincide with many major Phanerozoic mass extinctions, suggesting a cause-effect relationship where volcanic degassing triggers global climatic changes. In order to fully understand this relationship, it is necessary to constrain the quantity and type of degassed magmatic volatiles, and to determine the depth of their source and the timing of eruption. Here we present direct evidence of abundant CO2 in basaltic rocks from the end-Triassic Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP), through investigation of gas exsolution bubbles preserved by melt inclusions. Our results indicate abundance of CO2 and a mantle and/or lower-middle crustal origin for at least part of the degassed carbon. The presence of deep carbon is a key control on the emplacement mode of CAMP magmas, favouring rapid eruption pulses (a few centuries each). Our estimates suggest that the amount of CO2 that each CAMP magmatic pulse injected into the end-Triassic atmosphere is comparable to the amount of anthropogenic emissions projected for the 21st century. Such large volumes of volcanic CO2 likely contributed to end-Triassic global warming and ocean acidification

The amplifier effect: how Pin1 empowers mutant p53

Mutation of p53 occurs in 15 to 20% of all breast cancers, and with higher frequency in estrogen-receptor negative and high-grade tumors. Certain p53 mutations contribute to malignant transformation not only through loss of wild-type p53 but also through a gain of function of specific p53 mutations. How these hotspot mutations turn p53 from a tumor suppressor into an oncogene had until now remained incompletely understood. In an elegant paper published in the July 12 issue of Cancer Cell, Girardini and colleagues show how Pin1-mediated prolylisomerization, a regulatory mechanism intended by evolution to support p53's function as a guardian of the genome, can go haywire and accelerate malignant transformation when p53 carries a dominant-negative mutation

Mother knows best: occurrence and associations of resighted humpback whales suggest maternally derived fidelity to a southern hemisphere coastal feeding ground

Site fidelity is common among migratory cetaceans, including humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae). In the Northern Hemisphere it has been found that fidelity to humpback whale feeding grounds is transferred maternally but this has never been shown for the species in the Southern Hemisphere. We examined this in a unique feeding area off west South Africa using resighting data of 68 individually identified humpback whales by means of photographic (tail flukes and dorsal fins) and/or molecular methods (microsatellite genotyping) over an 18 year span. We found short-term association patterns and recurrent visits typical of other feeding grounds. Males and females had different seasonality of attendance. Significant female-dominated presence corresponded to timing of an expected influx of females on their southward migration from the breeding ground: firstly non-nursing (possibly pregnant) females in mid-spring, and mothers and calves in mid-to late summer. The potential benefit of this mid-latitude feeding area for females is illustrated by a record of a cow with known age of at least 23 years that produced calves in three consecutive years, each of which survived to at least six months of age: the first record of successful post-partum ovulation for this species in the Southern Hemisphere. We recorded association of a weaned calf with its mother, and a recurring association between a non-lactating female and male over more than two years. Moreover, three animals first identified as calves returned to the same area in subsequent years, sometimes on the same day as their mothers. This, together with numerous Parent-Offspring relations detected genetically among and between resighted and non-resighted whales is strongly suggestive of maternally derived site fidelity at a small spatial scale by a small sub-population of humpback whales.National Research Foundation (NRF), South Africa [2047517]; PADI Project AWARE (UK) [095]; Earthwatch Institute (project title "Whales of South Africa"

Comparison of tolerability and adverse symptoms in oxcarbazepine and carbamazepine in the treatment of trigeminal neuralgia and neuralgiform headaches using the Liverpool Adverse Events Profile (AEP)

Background Adverse effects of drugs are poorly reported in the literature . The aim of this study was to examine the frequency of the adverse events of antiepileptic drugs (AEDs), in particular carbamazepine (CBZ) and oxcarbazepine (OXC) in patients with neuralgiform pain using the psychometrically tested Liverpool Adverse Events Profile (AEP) and provide clinicians with guidance as to when to change management. Methods The study was conducted as a clinical prospective observational exploratory survey of 161 patients with idiopathic trigeminal neuralgia and its variants of whom 79 were on montherapy who attended a specialist clinic in a London teaching hospital over a period of 2 years. At each consultation they completed the AEP questionnaire which provides scores of 19–76 with toxic levels being considered as scores >45. Results The most common significant side effects were: tiredness 31.3 %, sleepiness 18.2 %, memory problems 22.7 %, disturbed sleep 14.1 %, difficulty concentrating and unsteadiness 11.6 %. Females reported significantly more side effects than males. Potential toxic dose for females is approximately 1200 mg of OXC and 800 mg of CBZ and1800mg of OXC and 1200 mg of CBZ for males. Conclusions CBZ and OXC are associated with cognitive impairment. Pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic differences are likely to be the reason for gender differences in reporting side effects. Potentially, females need to be prescribed lower dosages in view of their tendency to reach toxic levels at lower dosages. Side effects associated with AED could be a major reason for changing drugs or to consider a referral for surgical management

Diffusion patterns of new anti-diabetic drugs into hospitals in Taiwan: the case of Thiazolidinediones for diabetes

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Diffusion of new drugs in the health care market affects patients' access to new treatment options and health care expenditures. We examined how a new drug class for diabetes mellitus, thiazolidinediones (TZDs), diffused in the health care market in Taiwan.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Assuming that monthly hospital prescriptions of TZDs could serve as a micro-market to perform drug penetration studies, we retrieved monthly TZD prescription data for 580 hospitals in Taiwan from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database for the period between March 1, 2001 and December 31, 2005. Three diffusion parameters, time to adoption, speed of penetration (monthly growth on prescriptions), and peak penetration (maximum monthly prescription) were evaluated. Cox proportional hazards model and quantile regressions were estimated for analyses on the diffusion parameters.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Prior hospital-level pharmaceutical prescription concentration significantly deterred the adoption of the new drug class (HR: 0.02, 95%CI = 0.01 to 0.04). Adoption of TZDs was slower in district hospitals (HR = 0.43, 95%CI = 0.24 to 0.75) than medical centers and faster in non-profit hospitals than public hospitals (HR = 1.79, 95%CI = 1.23 to 2.61). Quantile regression showed that penetration speed was associated with a hospital's prior anti-diabetic prescriptions (25%Q: 18.29; 50%Q: 25.57; 75%Q: 30.97). Higher peaks were found in hospitals that had adopted TZD early (25%Q: -40.33; 50%Q: -38.65; 75%Q: -32.29) and in hospitals in which the drugs penetrated more quickly (25%Q: 16.53; 50%Q: 24.91; 75%Q: 31.50).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Medical centers began to prescribe TZDs earlier, and they prescribed more TZDs at a faster pace. The TZD diffusion patterns varied among hospitals depending accreditation level, ownership type, and prescription volume of Anti-diabetic drugs.</p