Bayesian analysis of a future β\beta decay experiment's sensitivity to neutrino mass scale and ordering

International audienceBayesian modeling techniques enable sensitivity analyses that incorporate detailed expectations regarding future experiments. A model-based approach also allows one to evaluate inferences and predicted outcomes, by calibrating (or measuring) the consequences incurred when certain results are reported. We present procedures for calibrating predictions of an experiment's sensitivity to both continuous and discrete parameters. Using these procedures and a new Bayesian model of the β-decay spectrum, we assess a high-precision β-decay experiment's sensitivity to the neutrino mass scale and ordering for one assumed design scenario. We find that such an experiment could measure the electron-weighted neutrino mass within ∼40 meV after 1 year (90% credibility). Neutrino masses >500 meV could be measured within ≈5 meV. Using only β decay and external reactor neutrino data, we find that next-generation β-decay experiments could potentially constrain the mass ordering using a two-neutrino spectral model analysis. By calibrating mass ordering results, we identify reporting criteria that can be tuned to suppress false ordering claims. In some cases, a two-neutrino analysis can reveal that the mass ordering is inverted, an unobtainable result for the traditional one-neutrino analysis approach

Viterbi decoding of CRES signals in Project 8

International audienceCyclotron radiation emission spectroscopy (CRES) is a modern approach for determining charged particle energies via high-precision frequency measurements of the emitted cyclotron radiation. For CRES experiments with gas within the fiducial volume, signal and noise dynamics can be modelled by a hidden Markov model. We introduce a novel application of the Viterbi algorithm in order to derive informational limits on the optimal detection of cyclotron radiation signals in this class of gas-filled CRES experiments, thereby providing concrete limits from which future reconstruction algorithms, as well as detector designs, can be constrained. The validity of the resultant decision rules is confirmed using both Monte Carlo and Project 8 data

Tritium Beta Spectrum and Neutrino Mass Limit from Cyclotron Radiation Emission Spectroscopy

The absolute scale of the neutrino mass plays a critical role in physics at every scale, from the particle to cosmological. Measurements of the tritium endpoint spectrum have provided the most precise direct limit on the neutrino mass scale. In this Letter, we present advances by Project 8 to the Cyclotron Radiation Emission Spectroscopy (CRES) technique culminating in the first frequency-based neutrino mass limit. With only a cm$^3$-scale physical detection volume, a limit of $m_\beta$<180 eV is extracted from the background-free measurement of the continuous tritium beta spectrum. Using $^{83{\rm m}}$Kr calibration data, an improved resolution of 1.66$\pm$0.16 eV (FWHM) is measured, the detector response model is validated, and the efficiency is characterized over the multi-keV tritium analysis window. These measurements establish the potential of CRES for a high-sensitivity next-generation direct neutrino mass experiment featuring low background and high resolution

Cyclotron Radiation Emission Spectroscopy of Electrons from Tritium Beta Decay and 83m^{83\rm m}Kr Internal Conversion

International audienceProject 8 has developed a novel technique, Cyclotron Radiation Emission Spectroscopy (CRES), for direct neutrino mass measurements. A CRES-based experiment on the beta spectrum of tritium has been carried out in a small-volume apparatus. We provide a detailed account of the experiment, focusing on systematic effects and analysis techniques. In a Bayesian (frequentist) analysis, we measure the tritium endpoint as $18553^{+18}_{-19}$ ($18548^{+19}_{-19}$) eV and set upper limits of 155 (152) eV (90% C.L.) on the neutrino mass. No background events are observed beyond the endpoint in 82 days of running. We also demonstrate an energy resolution of $1.66\pm0.19$ eV in a resolution-optimized magnetic trap configuration by measuring $^{83\rm m}$Kr 17.8-keV internal-conversion electrons. These measurements establish CRES as a low-background, high-resolution technique with the potential to advance neutrino mass sensitivity

Note on arXiv:2005.05301, 'Preparation of the Neutrino-4 experiment on search for sterile neutrino and the obtained results of measurements'

We comment on the claimed observation [arXiv:arXiv:2005.05301] of sterile neutrino oscillations by the Neutrino-4 collaboration. Such a claim, which requires the existence of a new fundamental particle, demands a level of rigor commensurate with its impact. The burden lies with the Neutrino-4 collaboration to provide the information necessary to prove the validity of their claim to the community. In this note, we describe aspects of both the data and analysis method that might lead to an oscillation signature arising from a null experiment and describe additional information needed from the Neutrino-4 collaboration to support the oscillation claim. Additionally, as opposed to the assertion made by the Neutrino-4 collaboration, we also show that the method of 'coherent summation' using the $L/E$ parameter produces similar results to the methods used by the PROSPECT and the STEREO collaborations

Note on arXiv:2005.05301, 'Preparation of the Neutrino-4 experiment on search for sterile neutrino and the obtained results of measurements'

We comment on the claimed observation [arXiv:arXiv:2005.05301] of sterile neutrino oscillations by the Neutrino-4 collaboration. Such a claim, which requires the existence of a new fundamental particle, demands a level of rigor commensurate with its impact. The burden lies with the Neutrino-4 collaboration to provide the information necessary to prove the validity of their claim to the community. In this note, we describe aspects of both the data and analysis method that might lead to an oscillation signature arising from a null experiment and describe additional information needed from the Neutrino-4 collaboration to support the oscillation claim. Additionally, as opposed to the assertion made by the Neutrino-4 collaboration, we also show that the method of 'coherent summation' using the $L/E$ parameter produces similar results to the methods used by the PROSPECT and the STEREO collaborations

Note on arXiv:2005.05301, 'Preparation of the Neutrino-4 experiment on search for sterile neutrino and the obtained results of measurements'

We comment on the claimed observation [arXiv:arXiv:2005.05301] of sterile neutrino oscillations by the Neutrino-4 collaboration. Such a claim, which requires the existence of a new fundamental particle, demands a level of rigor commensurate with its impact. The burden lies with the Neutrino-4 collaboration to provide the information necessary to prove the validity of their claim to the community. In this note, we describe aspects of both the data and analysis method that might lead to an oscillation signature arising from a null experiment and describe additional information needed from the Neutrino-4 collaboration to support the oscillation claim. Additionally, as opposed to the assertion made by the Neutrino-4 collaboration, we also show that the method of 'coherent summation' using the $L/E$ parameter produces similar results to the methods used by the PROSPECT and the STEREO collaborations

Joint Measurement of the 235^{235}U Antineutrino Spectrum by Prospect and Stereo

International audienceThe PROSPECT and STEREO collaborations present a combined measurement of the pure U235 antineutrino spectrum, without site specific corrections or detector-dependent effects. The spectral measurements of the two highest precision experiments at research reactors are found to be compatible with χ2/ndf=24.1/21, allowing a joint unfolding of the prompt energy measurements into antineutrino energy. This ν¯e energy spectrum is provided to the community, and an excess of events relative to the Huber model is found in the 5–6 MeV region. When a Gaussian bump is fitted to the excess, the data-model χ2 value is improved, corresponding to a 2.4σ significance