Operational ocean models in the Adriatic Sea: a skill assessment

In the framework of the Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) project, the performance of regional numerical ocean forecasting systems is assessed by means of model-model and model-data comparison. Three different operational systems considered in this study are: the Adriatic REGional Model (AREG); the Adriatic Regional Ocean Modelling System (AdriaROMS) and the Mediterranean Forecasting System General Circulation Model (MFS-GCM). AREG and AdriaROMS are regional implementations (with some dedicated variations) of POM and ROMS, respectively, while MFS-GCM is an OPA based system. The assessment is done through standard scores. In situ and remote sensing data are used to evaluate the system performance. In particular, a set of CTD measurements collected in the whole western Adriatic during January 2006 and one year of satellite derived sea surface temperature measurements (SST) allow to asses a full three-dimensional picture of the operational forecasting systems quality during January 2006 and to draw some preliminary considerations on the temporal fluctuation of scores estimated on surface quantities between summer 2005 and summer 2006. <br><br> The regional systems share a negative bias in simulated temperature and salinity. Nonetheless, they outperform the MFS-GCM in the shallowest locations. Results on amplitude and phase errors are improved in areas shallower than 50 m, while degraded in deeper locations, where major models deficiencies are related to vertical mixing overestimation. In a basin-wide overview, the two regional models show differences in the local displacement of errors. In addition, in locations where the regional models are mutually correlated, the aggregated mean squared error was found to be smaller, that is a useful outcome of having several operational systems in the same region

Operational ocean models in the Adriatic Sea: a skill assessment

International audienceIn the framework of the Mediterranean Forecasting System project (MFS) sub-regional and regional numerical ocean forecasting systems performance are assessed by mean of model-model and model-data comparison. Three different operational systems have been considered in this study: the Adriatic REGional Model (AREG); the AdriaROMS and the Mediterranean Forecasting System general circulation model (MFS model). AREG and AdriaROMS are regional implementations (with some dedicated variations) of POM (Blumberg and Mellor, 1987) and ROMS (Shchepetkin and McWilliams, 2005) respectively, while MFS model is based on OPA (Madec et al., 1998) code. The assessment has been done by means of standard scores. The data used for operational systems assessment derive from in-situ and remote sensing measurements. In particular a set of CTDs covering the whole western Adriatic, collected in January 2006, one year of SST from space born sensors and six months of buoy data. This allowed to have a full three-dimensional picture of the operational forecasting systems quality during January 2006 and some preliminary considerations on the temporal fluctuation of scores estimated on surface (or near surface) quantities between summer 2005 and summer 2006. In general, the regional models are found to be colder and fresher than observations. They eventually outperform the large scale model in the shallowest locations, as expected. Results on amplitude and phase errors are also much better in locations shallower than 50 m, while degraded in deeper locations, where the models tend to have a higher homogeneity along the vertical column compared to observations. In a basin-wide overview, the two regional models show some dissimilarities in the local displacement of errors, something suggested by the full three-dimensional picture depicted using CTDs, but also confirmed by the comparison with SSTs. In locations where the regional models are mutually correlated, the aggregated mean-square-error has been found to be lower, which is a useful outcome of having several operational systems in the same region

A study of the hydrographic conditions in the Adriatic Sea from numerical modelling and direct observations (2000–2008)

The inter-annual variability of Adriatic Sea hydrographic characteristics is investigated by means of numerical simulation and direct observation. The period under investigation runs from the beginning of 2000 to the end of 2008. The model used to carry out the simulation is derived from the primitive equation component of the Adriatic Forecasting System (AFS). The model is based on the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) adapted in order to reproduce the features of the Adriatic. Both numerical findings and observations agree in depicting a strong inter-annual variability in the entire Adriatic Sea and its sub-basins. Nevertheless, two model deficiencies are identified: an excessive vertical/horizontal mixing and an inaccurate representation of the thermohaline properties of the entering Mediterranean Waters. The dense water formation process has been found to be intermittent. In addition to inter-annual variability, a long-scale signal has been observed in the salinity content of the basin as a consequence of a prolonged period of reduced Po river runoff and high evaporation rates. As a result, the temperature and salinity of the northern Adriatic dense water vary considerably between the beginning and the end of the period investigated

sensitivity of the mediterranean sea level to atmospheric pressure and free surface elevation numerical formulation in nemo

Abstract. The sensitivity of the dynamics of the Mediterranean Sea to atmospheric pressure and free surface elevation formulation using NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) was evaluated. Four different experiments were carried out in the Mediterranean Sea using filtered or explicit free surface numerical schemes and accounting for the effect of atmospheric pressure in addition to wind and buoyancy fluxes. Model results were evaluated by coherency and power spectrum analysis with tide gauge data. We found that atmospheric pressure plays an important role for periods shorter than 100 days. The free surface formulation is important to obtain the correct ocean response for periods shorter than 30 days. At frequencies higher than 15 days−1 the Mediterranean basin's response to atmospheric pressure was not coherent and the performance of the model strongly depended on the specific area considered. A large-amplitude seasonal oscillation observed in the experiments using a filtered free surface was not evident in the corresponding explicit free surface formulation case, which was due to a phase shift between mass fluxes in the Gibraltar Strait and at the surface. The configuration with time splitting and atmospheric pressure always performed best; the differences were enhanced at very high frequencies

Considerations for an Ac Dipole for the LHC

Following successful experience at the BNL AGS, FNAL Tevatron, and CERN SPS, an AC Dipole will be adopted at the LHC for rapid measurements of ring optics. This paper describes some of the parameters of the AC dipole for the LHC, scaling from performance of the FNAL and BNL devices.Comment: proceedings of the 2007 Particle Accelerator Conferenc

Internal tides in the central Mediterranean Sea: observational evidence and numerical studies

Internal tides are studied in the central Mediterranean Sea using observational data and numerical experiments. Both numerical results and observations indicate that the baroclinic variability in this area is dominated by the K1 diurnal tide. In agreement with previous studies, the diurnal internal tides have the characteristics of Kelvin-like bottom trapped waves. They are mainly generated by the interaction of the induced barotropic tidal flow with the steep bathymetric gradient connecting the Ionian Sea with the shallow Sicily Channel. The bathymetric gradient appears to be the major forcing shaping the propagation paths of the internal tides. The most energetic internal tides follow the steep bathymetric gradient, propagating southward and tending to dissipate rapidly. Other waves cross the continental shelf south of Malta and then split with one branch moving toward the southern coast of Sicily and the other moving toward the west. Internal tides propagate with a variable phase velocity of about 1 ms(-1) and a wavelength of the order of 100 km. During their journey, the internal waves appear to be subject to local processes that can modify their characteristics. The induced vertical shear strongly dominates the vertical turbulence and generates vertical mixing that alters the properties of the water masses traversing the area. Barotropic and internal tides remove heat from the ocean surface, increasing atmospheric heating, and redistributing energy through increased lateral heat fluxes. Lateral heat fluxes are significantly greater in the presence of internal tides due to the simultaneous increase in volume fluxes and water temperatures

A Neural network based observation operator for coupled ocean acoustic variational data assimilation

Variational data assimilation requires implementing the tangent-linear and adjoint (TA/AD) version of any operator. This intrinsically hampers the use of complicated observations.Here, we assess a new data-driven approach to assimilate acoustic underwater propagation measurements [transmission loss (TL)] into a regional ocean forecasting system. TL measurements depend on the underlying sound speed fields, mostly temperature, and their inversion would require heavy coding of the TA/AD of an acoustic underwater propagation model. In this study, the nonlinear version of the acoustic model is applied to an ensemble of perturbed oceanic conditions. TL outputs are used to formulate both a statistical linear operator based on canonical correlation analysis (CCA), and a neural network based (NN) operator. For the latter, two linearization strategies are compared, the best-performing one relying on reverse-mode automatic differentiation. The new observation operator is applied in data assimilation experiments over the Ligurian Sea (Mediterranean Sea), using the observing system simulation experiments (OSSE) methodology to assess the impact of TL observations onto oceanic fields. TL observations are extracted from a nature run with perturbed surface boundary conditions and stochastic ocean physics. Sensitivity analyses indicate that theNNreconstruction of TL is significantly better than CCA. BothCCAandNNare able to improve the upper-ocean skill scores in forecast experiments, with NN outperforming CCA on the average. The use of the NN observation operator is computationally affordable, and its general formulation appears promising for the adjoint-free assimilation of any remote sensing observing network. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Deep learning algorithms are now widely spread in a diverse range of fields to help with solving automatic classification and regression problems. Here, we present and assess a strategy aimed at introducing an observation operator based on neural networks in data assimilation. Linearization of such an operator, required by variational schemes, is also discussed and implemented. The methodology is applied to the coupled oceanic acoustic data assimilation problem, and provides promising results. Our approach may be extended in the future to assimilate any remotely sensed type of observations

Numerical simulation and decomposition of kinetic energy in the Central Mediterranean: insight on mesoscale circulation and energy conversion

The spatial and temporal variability of eddy and mean kinetic energy of the Central Mediterranean region has been investigated, from January 2008 to December 2010, by mean of a numerical simulation mainly to quantify the mesoscale dynamics and their relationships with physical forcing. In order to understand the energy redistribution processes, the baroclinic energy conversion has been analysed, suggesting hypotheses about the drivers of the mesoscale activity in this area. The ocean model used is based on the Princeton Ocean Model implemented at 1/32° horizontal resolution. Surface momentum and buoyancy fluxes are interactively computed by mean of standard bulk formulae using predicted model Sea Surface Temperature and atmospheric variables provided by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast operational analyses. At its lateral boundaries the model is one-way nested within the Mediterranean Forecasting System operational products. <br><br> The model domain has been subdivided in four sub-regions: Sardinia channel and southern Tyrrhenian Sea, Sicily channel, eastern Tunisian shelf and Libyan Sea. Temporal evolution of eddy and mean kinetic energy has been analysed, on each of the four sub-regions, showing different behaviours. On annual scales and within the first 5 m depth, the eddy kinetic energy represents approximately the 60 % of the total kinetic energy over the whole domain, confirming the strong mesoscale nature of the surface current flows in this area. The analyses show that the model well reproduces the path and the temporal behaviour of the main known sub-basin circulation features. New mesoscale structures have been also identified, from numerical results and direct observations, for the first time as the Pantelleria Vortex and the Medina Gyre. <br><br> The classical kinetic energy decomposition (eddy and mean) allowed to depict and to quantify the permanent and fluctuating parts of the circulation in the region, and to differentiate the four sub-regions as function of relative and absolute strength of the mesoscale activity. Furthermore the Baroclinic Energy Conversion term shows that in the Sardinia Channel the mesoscale activity, due to baroclinic instabilities, is significantly larger than in the other sub-regions, while a negative sign of the energy conversion, meaning a transfer of energy from the Eddy Kinetic Energy to the Eddy Available Potential Energy, has been recorded only for the surface layers of the Sicily Channel during summer

Outcome Prognostication of Acute Brain Injury using the Neurological Pupil Index (ORANGE) study: protocol for a prospective, observational, multicentre, international cohort study.

The pupillary examination is an important part of the neurological assessment, especially in the setting of acutely brain-injured patients, and pupillary abnormalities are associated with poor outcomes. Currently, the pupillary examination is based on a visual, subjective and frequently inaccurate estimation. The use of automated infrared pupillometry to measure the pupillary light reflex can precisely quantify subtle changes in pupillary functions. The study aimed to evaluate the association between abnormal pupillary function, assessed by the Neurological Pupil Index (NPi), and long-term outcomes in patients with acute brain injury (ABI). The Outcome Prognostication of Acute Brain Injury using the Neurological Pupil Index study is a prospective, observational study including adult patients with ABI requiring admission at the intensive care unit. We aimed to recruit at least 420 patients including those suffering from traumatic brain injury or haemorrhagic strokes, over 12 months. The primary aim was to assess the relationship between NPi and 6-month mortality or poor neurological outcome, measured by the Extended Glasgow Outcome Score (GOS-E, poor outcome=GOS-E 1-4). Supervised and unsupervised methods and latent class mixed models will be used to identify patterns of NPi trajectories and Cox and logistic model to evaluate their association with outcome. The study has been approved by the institutional review board (Comitato Etico Brianza) on 16 July 2020. Approved protocol V.4.0 dated 10 March 2020. The results of this study will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at conferences. NCT04490005